Summary of the day: Most participants at the Ukraine-initiated Global Peace Summit in Switzerland signed a joint communique reaffirming support for Ukraine’s sovereignty and territorial integrity. A prison break and hostage situation in Rostov-on-Don prompted Russian ultranationalist complaints about Russia’s failure to address domestic Islamic extremism. The Kremlin continues efforts to destabilize the Balkans through its relationship with Republika Srpska. Russian forces recently advanced near Vovchansk and Donetsk City, while the Russian military reportedly coerces conscripts into signing service contracts as part of ongoing crypto-mobilization.
Тhese updates will be shorter until the end of July and will only use the Institute for the Study of War as a source while we are on holiday visiting family and friends. We will be back to our normal coverage again starting on July 22, 2024.
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Beyond Ukraine – The March Towards World War
The Kremlin and its affiliates are using Russia’s relationship with Republika Srpska to destabilize the Balkans. Russian Foreign Minister Lavrov claimed ties between Russia and Republika Srpska are at an all-time high, and Russia will prioritize building religious and cultural institutions in Banja Luka. A Kremlin-affiliated milblogger claimed Russia will support Republika Srpska’s independence and may open a Russian cultural center, which officials warn could spread propaganda. Republika Srpska’s president stated plans for an independence referendum, which the Kremlin could leverage to sow divisions and undermine the Dayton Accords.
Peace Talks
Most participants at the Ukraine-initiated Global Peace Summit in Switzerland signed a joint communique supporting Ukraine’s sovereignty, control over the Zaporizhzhia Nuclear Power Plant, Black Sea navigation for global food security, prisoner exchanges, and the return of deported Ukrainian children and detainees. Some countries, like Saudi Arabia and India, did not endorse the communique. The summit aimed to gather international support for ending the war based on international law, without compromising Ukraine’s integrity. Dutch PM Rutte said Russia should not be at the negotiating table now. Putin likely feigns interest in talks to extract concessions, as he believes Russia can outlast Western support through gradual battlefield gains.
Situation On The Land, Sea, and Air in Ukraine
Russian forces are restoring defunct airfields in occupied Crimea, including Kirovske, Baherove, and Zavodske, reportedly to disperse their aircraft after recent Ukrainian strikes targeted other Crimean airfields. Russia has already begun using Zavodske Airfield. However, some of the restored airfields may lack infrastructure for modern military aircraft. Russia aims to maintain aviation and air defenses in Crimea despite the Ukrainian strikes.
Kharkiv Front – Initiative Russia
Russian forces continued offensive operations near Hlyboke, Vovchansk, and Tykhe in northern Kharkiv Oblast. Russian milbloggers claimed Ukrainian counterattacks near Hlyboke and Vovchansk. Ukrainian officials stated that Russian forces are unsuccessfully attacking, while the military command tries to withdraw degraded units.
Geolocated footage indicates Russian forces advanced in part of the Aggregate Plant in Vovchansk, but the current status remains unclear due to conflicting reports. A Ukrainian source stated that Russian forces entered the plant around May 13 and controlled northern approaches since May 20, with Ukrainian forces establishing fire control by June 1. Russian forces reportedly reinforced their grouping in the plant between June 6-14. Ukrainian military observer Mashovets claimed around 200 Russian soldiers are isolated in the plant after attempting to cross the Vovcha River. Russian milbloggers offered contradictory claims about the extent of Russian control over the plant.
Luhansk Front – Initiative Russia
Russian forces continued ground attacks along the Kupyansk-Svatove-Kreminna line, targeting Petropavlivka, Pishchane, Berestove, Andriivka, Makiivka, Druzhelyubivka, Hrekivka, Nevske, and the Serebryanske forest area. However, no frontline changes were confirmed. A Russian milblogger claimed a 2km advance near Pishchane, southeast of Kupyansk, but this lacks visual evidence. Ukrainian forces reported a 1km advance along a 2km front in the Serebryanske forest area, southwest of Kreminna.
Donetsk Front – Initiative Russia
Siversk
The Ukrainian General Staff reported intensified Russian assaults in the Siversk area, with unsuccessful attacks near Verkhnokamyanske to the east and Rozdolivka to the south.
Chasiv Yar
Russian forces continued offensive operations around Chasiv Yar but made no confirmed advances. They conducted heavy strikes on buildings in western Chasiv Yar, likely to prepare for future assaults. Ukrainian forces repelled Russian attacks north, east, and southeast of Chasiv Yar.
Avdiivka
Russian forces continued offensive operations around Avdiivka but did not make any confirmed gains. Russian milbloggers claimed advances towards Novoselivka Persha, Sokil, northern and southern banks of the Karlivske Reservoir, Novooleksandrivka, Novopokrovske, and in the Netaylove-Yasnobrodivka direction, but these claims are unconfirmed. Ukrainian forces repelled Russian attacks near Kalynove, Novooleksandrivka, Yevhenivka, Novoselivka Persha, Ocheretyne, Vozdvyzhenka, Umanske, and Nevelske.
Southwest of Donetsk City
Russian forces recently advanced to central Krasnohorivka west of Donetsk City amid continued fighting in that area. Ukrainian forces repelled a Russian assault with tanks near Krasnohorivka. Fighting was reported near several settlements west and southwest of Donetsk City, including Krasnohorivka, Heorhiivka, Paraskoviivka, Vodyane, Pobieda, Kostyantynivka, and Novomykhailivka. Russian strikes targeted Maksymilianivka likely in preparation for ground attacks.
Zaporizhia Front – Initiative Russia
Zaporizhia-Donetsk Border Area
Russian forces continued limited offensive operations near the Donetsk-Zaporizhia border area but made no confirmed advances. Fighting was reported near Urozhaine and Staromayorske. Russia launched dozens of unguided bombs at Staromayorske, likely preparing for upcoming ground attacks in that area. Increased Russian bombardment suggests intensified offensives may occur in this region soon.
The Russian Ministry of Defense claimed its forces seized Zahirne, southwest of Hulyaipole, on June 16. However, Russian milbloggers criticized this claim, noting Russia had controlled Zahirne for some time already. The announcement sparked debate over whether Ukrainian forces had previously withdrawn from the area or if Russia had recently established full control. Some milbloggers accused Russia’s defense ministry of inventing successes to cover for a lack of real frontline victories.
Zaporizhia Line
Positional fighting continued in western Zaporizhia Oblast with no confirmed frontline changes. Russian ground attacks occurred near Robotyne, Verbove, and Mala Tokmachka. A Russian soldier reported that some units struggle with language barriers and poorly trained non-Russian speakers, leading to incidents like soldiers being injured by a Ukrainian drone due to miscommunication.
Kherson (Dnipro River) Front – Initiative None
Positional fighting continued in eastern Kherson Oblast near Krynky, with no confirmed frontline changes.
Russia News
A prison break and hostage situation at a pretrial detention center in Rostov-on-Don, Russia, led to ultranationalist complaints about the country’s failure to address domestic Islamic extremism. Russian media reported that around six prisoners with alleged links to the Islamic State or terrorism-related convictions broke out of their cells and took two employees hostage. Russian forces stormed the facility, reportedly killing the detainees and freeing the hostages. The incident highlights ongoing concerns about extremism in Russia.
Russian ultranationalist milbloggers used the hostage situation in Rostov-on-Don to complain about perceived Islamic extremism in Russia and the penal system. They circulated alleged details about the prisoners, footage showing them with IS paraphernalia, and used racist rhetoric to criticize authorities for not cracking down on extremist groups. Milbloggers complained that the prisoners were allowed to maintain religious facial hair and planned the attack on a Muslim holy day. They also criticized the penal system’s security failures, enabling the prisoners to obtain weapons and break out, and blamed past reforms and inadequate compensation for contributing to the situation.
The Rostov-on-Don prison attack and subsequent discussions undermine the Kremlin’s efforts to portray a crackdown on domestic extremism since the Crocus City Hall attack. Opposition outlet Baza claimed the prisoners planned the attack for months, with alleged IS ties helping smuggle weapons and devices. Verstka reported regular inspections found no violations at the detention center. Rostov Oblast Head Golubev faced criticism for a delayed response and deleting comments on social media. The Kremlin will likely use the incident to justify further domestic crackdowns while deflecting its security failures in preventing recent attacks.
The Financial Times reported that Russia briefly overtook the U.S. as Europe’s main gas supplier in May 2024, highlighting Europe’s continued reliance on Russian energy despite the ongoing war in Ukraine. This shift was partially due to temporary factors, such as a U.S. LNG export factory outage and planned Russian gas export increases. However, Russia is unlikely to maintain this advantage in the coming months, as it can increase LNG shipments to Asia while U.S. production stabilizes. Overall, Gazprom’s business with Europe has significantly decreased since 2022, and Russia remains reliant on energy revenues, increasing exports to China to offset losses.
Russian Mobilization and Defense Industrial Base
The Russian military reportedly continues coercing Russian conscripts into signing military contracts, likely as part of crypto-mobilization efforts. Russian officials deceived at least four conscripts from North Ossetia into unknowingly signing contracts after medical exams, then rejected their attempts to revoke the contracts. Despite assurances, Russia appears to be forcing conscripts into contracts to supplement forces in Ukraine.
Relatives of Russian mobilized troops from Bashkortostan appealed to President Putin about the poor treatment of their family members in the military. They claimed the mobilized troops received only two days of training before deploying to assault units, were kept in basements under armed guard, and prevented from contacting families or taking leave. The relatives asked Putin to investigate these mistreatment allegations.
Russian Narrative and Propaganda
In an interview, former pro-Russian Ukrainian MP Viktor Medvedchuk reiterated Kremlin disinformation narratives and threateningly called on Ukraine to accept Putin’s recent “peace proposal.” Medvedchuk claimed it was Ukraine’s last chance to preserve statehood, implying Russia should seize more cities if rejected. He also repeated false claims about Zelenskyy’s legitimacy and Western control over Ukraine.
Source Material
Institute for the Study of War – understandingwar.org