Summary of the day: Russian forces made advances near Vovchansk, Chasiv Yar, Avdiivka, and the Donetsk-Zaporizhia Oblast border area. The interplay between Russian operations in Chasiv Yar, Toretsk, and Avdiivka suggests a more developed level of operational planning, potentially leveraging the Toretsk push to create opportunities in other areas. However, the success of these operations will be limited by Russian forces’ poor tactical-level capabilities. Ukrainian forces struck a Russian ammunition depot housing Shahed drones in occupied Crimea. Russia may be intensifying reconnaissance efforts near NATO states and is reportedly recruiting women from penal colonies to fight in Ukraine. Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orban made an unannounced visit to Kyiv, likely posturing as a peacemaker following Hungary’s accession to the EU Council presidency, though his efforts are unlikely to bring about robust peace.
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Beyond Ukraine – March Towards World War
Reports suggest Russia may be intensifying reconnaissance and communication disruption efforts near NATO states. Russian Kilo-class submarines were reportedly spotted in the Irish Sea twice since December 2022, with movements described as unusual by UK officials. These deployments could be aimed at identifying weaknesses in Irish and British maritime defenses or intimidating the UK over its support for Ukraine. The submarines’ presence near Cork, Ireland, a landing point for a UK-Canada submarine cable, raises concerns about potential threats to data cables. While the submarines’ exact purpose is unclear, they may be conducting reconnaissance on NATO members’ defense and communication systems. Simultaneously, several European countries reported GPS jamming and satellite interference, affecting air traffic control and TV broadcasts. The source of interference was traced to areas near Moscow, Kaliningrad, and Pavlovka in Russia. GPS jamming has been observed over Poland and the Baltic region, with UK Royal Air Force flights experiencing significant interference. These activities, while not necessarily directly related, suggest a pattern of Russian efforts to disrupt NATO members’ water and air space operations.
Peace Talks
Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orban made an unannounced visit to Kyiv, meeting with Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky. Orban urged Zelensky to consider a time-bound ceasefire and speed up peace negotiations, likely attempting to position himself as a peacemaker following Hungary’s assumption of the EU Council presidency. Zelensky and Orban discussed bilateral issues, infrastructure, energy, and approaches to achieving a just and lasting peace. Ukrainian officials emphasized that peace processes cannot be viewed in isolation. Analysts continue to assess that a ceasefire on current lines is unlikely to deter further Russian aggression and may allow Russia time to rebuild its forces.
The Kremlin is intensifying its information campaign to push Ukraine into negotiations on Russian terms. Putin believes Russia can win through gradual advances and attrition, as long as he can limit international support for Ukraine. Recent Russian gains have likely reinforced this view, making Putin reluctant to consider a true ceasefire. Russian officials consistently demand Ukrainian territorial concessions as a condition for negotiations. Analysts warn that freezing current lines would give Russia strategically significant territory and allow it to prepare for future aggression. Any premature negotiations or ceasefire could weaken Ukraine and embolden further Russian aggression both within and beyond Ukraine’s borders.
Situation On The Land, Sea, and Air in Ukraine
The Ukrainian General Staff reported that Russian forces are conducting sabotage and reconnaissance activities along the international border in Sumy and Chernihiv oblasts. This suggests that previously observed Russian positions near Zhuravka, Sumy Oblast, were likely part of a limited cross-border raid rather than a permanent presence. However, the Russian military still maintains reserves and capability to launch offensive operations in Sumy Oblast if they choose to do so.
Ukrainian forces struck a Russian ammunition depot in occupied Crimea on July 1, reportedly housing Shahed drones. The attack targeted a Russian military base near Flotske, south of Sevastopol. Reports suggest that Ukrainian forces used at least six Storm Shadow missiles, with one striking the Russian Black Sea Fleet’s 758th Logistics Center in Sevastopol. Russian sources confirmed air defense activations and explosions near Flotske and Sevastopol, with Sevastopol’s occupation head claiming that Russian forces shot down five air targets and small fires started. This strike demonstrates Ukraine’s ability to hit strategic Russian targets in occupied Crimea.
Kharkiv Front – Initiative None
Russian forces advanced within Vovchansk, northeast of Kharkiv City, with elements operating along Soborna Street. Fighting continued near Hlyboke, Lyptsi, and Vovchansk. A Ukrainian spokesperson reported that Russian forces are transferring reinforcements to northern Kharkiv Oblast to replenish losses.
Luhansk Front – Initiative Russia
Russian forces continued offensive operations along the Kupyansk-Svatove-Kreminna line, with no confirmed advances. Conflicting reports emerged about Russian progress near Stelmakhivka, with claims ranging from 200 meters to 2 kilometers. Some sources reported Ukrainian counterattacks west of Kreminna, with potential advances up to 400 meters. Fighting continued in multiple locations along the line, including Synkivka, Berestove, Pishchane, Makiivka, Nevske, Hrekivka, Terny, and Torske.
Donetsk Front – Initiative Russia
Siversk
Russian forces sustained attacks near Siversk, targeting areas southeast, east, and northeast of the city. Despite ongoing offensives, there were no significant changes to the frontline. Russian military bloggers reported that Spirne has not been fully captured, and Russian forces are active near Vyimka.
Chasiv Yar
Russian forces have made recent advances in easternmost Chasiv Yar, continuing their offensive in the area. They have also engaged in operations east and southeast of Chasiv Yar. There are partial occupations by Russian forces in western Kalynivka, north of Chasiv Yar. Ukrainian forces report Russian mechanized assaults and small-group tactics targeting Chasiv Yar’s eastern sectors. The “Night Wolves” drone unit is active near Chasiv Yar.
Russian forces are conducting offensive operations in the Chasiv Yar, Toretsk, and Avdiivka areas, potentially using the Toretsk push to create opportunities for advances elsewhere. This suggests more developed operational planning than previously seen from Russian forces. However, the success of these operations is limited by poor tactical capabilities of Russian troops in these areas. Ukrainian officials report that Russian forces are beginning to attack Chasiv Yar from the Toretsk direction, using small infantry groups and occasional mechanized assaults. If successful in developing a larger salient in the Shumy-Pivdenne-Pivniche-Toretsk area, Russian forces could threaten Chasiv Yar from the south while continuing efforts from the north near Kalynivka.
Toretsk
Russian forces continued their offensive near Toretsk, targeting areas northeast, east, and southeast of the city. Despite these efforts, there have been no significant changes to the frontline. Ukrainian observer Kostyantyn Mashovets noted that Russian forces are likely active near Mayorske, east of Toretsk.
Ukrainian military observer Kostyantyn Mashovets linked Russian efforts in the Toretsk direction to attempts to break through to the Pokrovsk (Avdiivka) direction. He noted intensified Russian attacks on Toretsk in the past 24 hours, with additional battalions and assault companies deployed near Toretsk. Mashovets assessed that Russian forces are trying to interdict Ukrainian positions along the H-32 Pokrovsk-Kostyantynivka road, a major supply line for Ukrainian forces in Toretsk. He emphasized that operational factors in the Toretsk direction are directly related to the Avdiivka direction.
The Russian command’s decision to escalate operations near Toretsk in mid-June may be strategically significant. This area offers flexibility for Russian forces to attack either towards Chasiv Yar or in the Avdiivka direction, depending on which seems more promising. This suggests improved operational planning by Russian commanders compared to previous incoherent offensives. However, the success of these plans depends on the tactical performance of Russian troops in the Toretsk area, which are primarily lower-quality forces from the Donetsk People’s Republic and Territorial Troops. These units may struggle to execute attacks effectively, especially as Ukraine receives additional military aid in the coming weeks and months.
Avdiivka
Russian forces made recent advances near Avdiivka, including the areas northwest, northeast, and southwest of the city. There have been unconfirmed claims of further Russian movements north and east of Avdiivka. Ukrainian drones have reportedly affected Russian operations near Sokil. Clashes also occurred northwest, west, and southwest of Avdiivka. Russian forces have been reported near Yasnobrodivka.
Southwest of Donetsk City
Russian forces continued their offensive west and southwest of Donetsk City, focusing on areas near Krasnohorivka, Heorhiivka, Kostyantynivka, Paraskoviivka, and Vodyane. Despite these operations, no changes to the frontline were confirmed.
Zaporizhia Front – Initiative Russia
Zaporizhia-Donetsk Border Area
Russian forces made advancements north of Staromayorske and engaged in ongoing positional battles south of Velyka Novosilka near Makarivka and Urozhaine.
Zaporizhia Line
Fighting persisted in western Zaporizhia Oblast, with no changes reported in the frontline. Clashes occurred near Robotyne, Novodanylivka, Mala Tokmachka, and Verbove. A Russian military blogger mentioned possible but unconfirmed advances by Russian Airborne Forces near Verbove.
Kherson (Dnipro River) Front – Initiative None
Fighting persisted in the eastern bank of Kherson Oblast near Krynky, with no shifts in the frontline reported. Russian military bloggers stated that Russian forces face challenges with counterbattery fire against Ukrainian artillery due to elevation disadvantages and longer Ukrainian artillery ranges. They also noted a shortage of artillery shells for Russian forces in the Kherson area.
Ukraine News
On June 1, Russia’s Ministry of Defense claimed that a missile strike from an Iskander-M ballistic missile targeted Myrhorod Air Base in Poltava Oblast, reportedly damaging or destroying seven Ukrainian aircraft. However, former Ukrainian Air Force Spokesperson, Colonel Yuriy Ihnat, acknowledged some damage but disputed the extent reported by Russia.
Life in Russian-Occupied Ukraine
Russian authorities are accused of illegal actions involving Ukrainian children, including deportations and militarization. Artem Lysohor, the Head of the Ukrainian Luhansk Oblast Military Administration, reported that on July 1, 138 children were deported from occupied Luhansk to Volgograd, Russia, for military camps teaching skills like drone operation and chemical protection. Additionally, Maria Lvova-Belova, Kremlin-appointed Children’s Rights Commissioner, noted that around 400 children from occupied Mariupol were taken to St. Petersburg for a supposed graduation event on June 29. Furthermore, the Russian Luhansk People’s Republic’s ministry of internal affairs disclosed that 15 Ukrainian children received Russian passports on July 1 as part of a youth military organization.
Russian President Vladimir Putin has directed the Russian Agency for Strategic Initiatives (ASI) to further integrate occupied Ukrainian regions into Russia’s socioeconomic framework. As of June 29, the ASI is tasked with applying Russian standards to the Azov Region by September 1, 2024, through national projects and strategic planning that will influence the area’s territorial and industrial strategies. This move is seen as an effort by Russian occupation authorities to consolidate control over Ukrainian territories and industries.
Russia News
Russian State Duma deputies proposed a bill to exclude many ethnicities from Russia’s “compatriots” resettlement program. The bill would limit eligibility to ethnicities historically living in Russia and the Russian Soviet Federative Socialist Republic, excluding citizens of other former Soviet countries. This contradicts recent government efforts to ease resettlement requirements and could undermine the Kremlin’s use of “compatriots abroad” to address labor shortages and justify potential operations in countries with Russian-speaking populations. The proposal reflects growing ultranationalist criticism of granting citizenship to migrants, despite some support for the practice if migrants serve in the military. This bill could significantly limit the number of people Russia can include in its “compatriots abroad” narrative.
Russian authorities are focusing on crackdowns against mixed martial arts (MMA) clubs and restrictions on niqabs in response to recent terrorist attacks in Dagestan. They have searched an MMA club linked to former fighter Khabib Nurmagomedov and seized his bank accounts. Russian milbloggers claim these clubs encourage extremist ideology. Authorities are also considering bans on niqabs, with mixed opinions from officials. The Muftiate of Dagestan stated it couldn’t find grounds for a general niqab ban but allows local, temporary bans for security reasons. Some sources suggest authorities are ignoring broader issues of Islamist extremism and rising ethnic and religious tensions. Critics argue that focusing on superficial measures while neglecting systemic problems may actually fuel radicalization and increase friction in the region.
President Vladimir Putin awarded the “guards” honorific to the Russian 999th Air Base in Kant, Kyrgyzstan for “mass heroism and bravery.” This base is part of the Collective Security Treaty Organization’s Rapid Deployment Forces. A Russian milblogger suggested that this recognition might indicate the base’s involvement in supporting combat missions related to Ukraine.
Russian Mobilization and Defense Industrial Base
Russia is reportedly recruiting women from its penal colonies to participate in the conflict in Ukraine. According to a June 10 report by The New York Times, recruiters took a group of women from a St. Petersburg penal colony in late May 2024. This follows initial efforts to enlist female inmates starting in fall 2023. The scope of these recruitments remains unclear. Despite Russian Human Rights Commissioner Tatyana Moskalkova’s statement on June 11 denying significant deployment of female convicts to Ukraine, a Ukrainian brigade reported isolated instances of female penal recruits in combat as of July 2, including a notable detachment in an unspecified area. A Kremlin-affiliated blogger has expressed concerns over discipline issues arising from women fighting on the frontline.
Russian independent media and milbloggers are criticizing government efforts to support military personnel and veterans from the Ukraine conflict. The outlet Mozhem Obyasnit claims the “Defenders of the Fatherland” foundation, led by Deputy Defense Minister Anna Tsivileva, lacks specialists to treat PTSD. Many soldiers avoid seeking treatment due to societal stigmas, and the state often hides mentally ill veterans rather than helping them. Milbloggers reported that injured soldiers from the 26th Tank Regiment were sent back to the frontline without care, only receiving medical attention after public outcry. They also noted that soldiers’ phones were confiscated, complicating their ability to seek help. Criticism extends to the military command’s perceived neglect of personnel welfare.
The Russian Cabinet of Ministers approved a project to send confiscated firearms to forces in Ukraine, a decision reportedly influenced by appeals from Russian military bloggers to Defense Minister Andrey Belousov. Belousov had met with key milbloggers on June 10, likely to strengthen ties and address their concerns, although these changes are not expected to significantly impact the broader war effort.
Russian defense efforts are increasing to safeguard military assets from Ukrainian drone strikes. On June 1, JSC “First Airship” introduced the “Barrier” system, which uses balloons equipped with nets to shield objects from drones, inspired by WWII-era Zeppelins. Additionally, footage on Russian Telegram channels showcased the “ZVeraBoy” buggy, a vehicle outfitted with improvised turrets, shotguns, and defense charges designed to counteract drones at close range.
Russia’s Allies
Belarusian President Aleksander Lukashenko downplayed concerns about a Russian military contingent’s arrival in Belarus, stating it was merely for a parade participation, not aggression. He warned of a strong response to any Ukrainian provocation at the border. Meanwhile, Belarusian military officials noted an uptick in Ukrainian drone activity near their border, and Ukrainian authorities accused Belarusian and Russian propagandists of falsely portraying Ukraine as a threat to Belarus.
Russia and Belarus are collaborating on import substitution initiatives in microelectronics, aviation, and machine tools to mitigate the impact of international sanctions
Russian Narrative and Propaganda
The Russian government has charged several current and former Ukrainian officials in absentia with fictitious crimes, part of its efforts to extend the enforcement of Russian federal law beyond its borders and undermine Ukraine’s sovereignty. Those charged include former Ukrainian Prime Minister Volodymyr Groysman, former Foreign Minister Pavlo Klimkin, former Finance Minister Oleksandr Slapak, Lieutenant General Ihor Dovhan, and Brigadier General Vladyslav Lishchynskyi, accused of using prohibited warfare methods. This action underscores Russia’s persistent stance that Ukraine should not exist as an independent state.
During Russia’s one-month presidency of the United Nations Security Council, which began on July 1, Russian Permanent Representative Vasily Nebenzya used the position to advance Kremlin-backed information campaigns.
A Russian military blogger has further highlighted criticisms from a Ukrainian official directed at Ukrainian Commander-in-Chief Colonel General Oleksandr Syrskyi.
Source Material
Institute for the Study of War – understandingwar.org