Summary of the day: The war in Ukraine continued, with Ukrainian First Deputy Defense Minister Lieutenant General Ivan Havrylyuk stressing the importance of Western security assistance for Ukraine to seize the initiative and challenge Russia’s ability to sustain gradual advances, despite Putin’s acceptance of high casualty rates. Ukrainian forces are attempting localized counterattacks, while Russia faces long-term economic and equipment challenges. NATO allies reaffirmed their support for Ukraine at the recent summit, announcing new assistance packages, but Russian Security Council Deputy Chairperson Dmitry Medvedev reiterated Russia’s refusal to accept peace settlements short of Ukrainian capitulation. In a disturbing development, Russian servicemembers reportedly executed two Ukrainian POWs in June, following a similar incident in May. US military bases in Europe have increased alert levels due to intensified Russian sabotage against NATO allies, while Russian forces recently advanced in Vovchansk, near Kreminna, and near Toretsk, and the Russian MoD claimed to have trained counter-drone instructors.
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Beyond Ukraine – March Towards World War
US military bases in Europe have raised their alert levels in response to increased Russian sabotage and hybrid operations against NATO allies. CNN reported that the US implemented additional safety protocols and raised the alert level to “Force Protection Condition Charlie” at several bases after receiving intelligence of potential sabotage attacks. NATO Secretary General Jens Stoltenberg confirmed the increased alert levels and noted that Russian sabotage attempts are part of a campaign to intimidate NATO countries supporting Ukraine. The Washington Post reported that Russia is recruiting sympathizers through social media to stage sabotage operations in Europe, as revealed by Kremlin documents obtained by a European intelligence service. Western officials noted that Russia is increasingly working through proxies, including online recruits, to maximize the pool of potential recruits while maintaining deniability.
Russian authorities claim Moldova is cooperating with Ukraine in activities against Russia, including an alleged Ukrainian plot involving the hijacking of a Russian bomber on July 8. The Federal Security Service (FSB) suggests Ukraine operates unhindered in Moldova, fueling accusations by Russian media that Moldova strongly backs Ukraine.
Russia has warned it will respond to Montenegro’s decision to ban 20 Russian media outlets starting July 10, describing the planned actions as asymmetric. This threat follows historical tensions, including a failed 2016 coup attempt by Russia aimed at preventing Montenegro from joining NATO in 2017.
Peace Talks
Russian Security Council Deputy Chairperson Dmitry Medvedev reaffirmed that Russia will not accept any peace settlements with Ukraine short of full capitulation, destruction of the Ukrainian state, and complete occupation. Medvedev implied that even if Ukraine surrenders and agrees to Russian demands, Russia will still need to destroy remaining “radicals” and reclaim “remaining lands.” He suggested that negotiations will only occur after a radical change in the Ukrainian government, possibly through a “third bloody Maidan” revolution in response to unpopular ceasefire agreements and abandoned NATO prospects. Medvedev’s statements indicate the Kremlin’s belief that conquering Ukraine will be easier if Kyiv accepts deeply unpopular concessions, anticipating that Ukrainian society would demand a government change benefiting the Kremlin. However, Ukrainian officials have warned of a “Maidan 3” information campaign aimed at undermining the government and establishing a pro-Kremlin regime in Ukraine.
Situation On The Land, Sea, and Air in Ukraine
Ukrainian First Deputy Defense Minister Ivan Havrylyuk emphasized the importance of robust Western security assistance for Ukraine to seize the battlefield initiative and challenge Russia’s ability to sustain gradual advances. Havrylyuk outlined key factors for Ukraine to contest the initiative, including strengthening combat brigades, creating and replenishing reserves, and providing sufficient training. He stressed that the scale of Western security assistance will determine Ukraine’s ability to achieve these goals and conduct counteroffensive operations to force Russia towards a just peace on Ukraine’s terms.
Ukrainian forces are attempting to contest the battlefield initiative through limited and localized counterattacks at the tactical level, challenging the stability of the current positional warfare along the frontline. The arrival of Western-provided aid has allowed Ukrainian forces to stabilize critical areas and conduct successful counterattacks in northern Kharkiv Oblast and towards Kreminna since mid-May 2024. While not yet at the scale necessary to seize the initiative, these counterattacks are increasing costs for Russian forces. The disparate deployment of Russian elements across the frontline indicates that Russian forces are feeling the pressure of Ukrainian counterattacks. Ukraine’s ability to launch more powerful and organized counterattacks remains dependent on sustained Western military support.
Havrylyuk assessed that Russia will face medium- to long-term economic and equipment challenges, hindering its ability to retain the initiative, sustain offensive pressure, and win a war of attrition. Despite Russia’s current artillery, armored vehicle, and manpower advantages, as well as its effective use of aviation capabilities, Havrylyuk believes that Russian forces will not make significant advances in the future. However, the current positional warfare aligns with the Kremlin’s attempt to protract the war and convince the West that Ukraine’s victory is impossible. Putin and the Russian military command likely prioritize retaining the initiative, assessing that consistent offensive pressure will prevent Ukraine from conducting operationally significant counteroffensive operations.
Havrylyuk challenged Russia’s ability to indefinitely maintain offensive pressure, citing potential human capital and supply chain constraints that may prevent the Kremlin from further mobilizing its defense industrial base (DIB). Russia is struggling to cover its current military equipment losses, relying on dwindling stockpiles of mainly Soviet-era equipment and becoming more dependent on foreign partners. Growing constraints on available combat-ready equipment will pose challenges for sustaining Russian operations in the medium- to long-term. Ukrainian forces with sufficient manpower and materiel can exploit these disruptions to contest and seize the battlefield initiative. While Russia may face fewer manpower challenges, even its current ability to generate new personnel leads to periods of temporary regrouping and lower offensive tempo, providing opportunities for well-prepared Ukrainian forces.
President Putin’s theory of a slow, grinding victory in Ukraine relies on accepting high casualty rates, as evidenced by recent Russian losses. Ukrainian First Deputy Defense Minister Havrylyuk reported that Russian forces suffered 5,000 casualties for a small neighborhood in Chasiv Yar, while Ukrainian Kharkiv Group of Forces Chief-of-Staff Solimchuk stated that Russian forces lost 91 percent of their committed personnel in northern Kharkiv Oblast during the offensive in early May 2024. Solimchuk also noted that Russian efforts in Vovchansk have severely weakened the 138th Motorized Rifle Brigade. Reports suggest that the 83rd Airborne (VDV) Brigade suffered devastating losses in Kharkiv Oblast, rendering it combat ineffective. These reports highlight the attritional tactics Russian forces are using to pursue Putin’s theory of a gradual victory in Ukraine.
Satellite imagery collected between April 11 and July 8 confirms that Ukrainian forces successfully destroyed a Russian storage depot on Cape Fiolent, south of Sevastopol, on July 1. The depot allegedly stored either Shahed drones or ammunition.
Naval News reported that the Russian Project 222870 support ship, previously docked at its home port in Novorossiysk, Krasnodar Krai, was observed docking at the Ochamchire port in Russian-controlled Abkhazia, Georgia, on July 4 and 5. This marks the first significant ship at the port since the announcement of an agreement between Russia and Abkhazia for the construction of a permanent Russian naval base near Ochamchire in October 2023. Russian military likely intended to develop the existing port into a secondary base due to the surrounding terrain’s unsuitability for naval infrastructure, and that successful Ukrainian strikes on Russian Black Sea Fleet assets have forced Russia to set conditions for a more permanent basing pattern along the eastern Black Sea coast.
Kharkiv Front – Initiative None
Russian forces have crossed the Vovcha River into central Vovchansk amid ongoing fighting north and northeast of Kharkiv City. Geolocated footage confirms that Russian forces hold positions on Kharkiv Street in central Vovchansk, with claims of advances along Soborna and Pryluzhna streets. Heavy fighting continues near high-rise buildings in central Vovchansk on the northern side of the Vovcha River. Small Ukrainian groups are reportedly operating near and north of Hlyboke, with small arms battles in the area. Fighting has also occurred near Lyptsi and Starytsya.
Despite heavy losses and limited progress, Russian forces continue offensive operations in the Kharkiv direction. President Zelensky credited the US permission for Ukraine to strike military targets within Russia for stopping the Russian offensive in Kharkiv Oblast in May and June. Colonel Solimchuk stated that Russian forces aim to create a “buffer zone” for artillery strikes on Kharkiv City, concentrating on battles in Vovchansk and intensifying offensives towards Lyptsi and Starytsya. Russian forces are regrouping, replenishing, improving logistics, and training assault groups in the rear. Colonel Povkh noted that Russian forces are transferring engineering equipment to construct fortifications in recently seized territories. Ukrainian forces lack sufficient air defense assets to counter the Russian aviation threat, with nearly 1,700 glide bombs launched by Russian forces in the Kharkiv direction between May 10 and July 8.
Luhansk Front – Initiative Russia
Russian forces have made marginal advances northwest of Kreminna amid ongoing ground attacks along the Kupyansk-Svatove-Kreminna line. Geolocated footage indicates Russian forces advanced south of Novovodyane, while a Russian milblogger claimed advances northeast of Stelmakhivka and Dzherelne without visual evidence. Fighting continued in several areas, including northeast and southeast of Kupyansk, west of Svatove, and northwest of Kreminna.
Donetsk Front – Initiative Russia
Siversk
Russian forces carried out limited ground attacks in the Siversk, targeting locations northeast, east, southeast, and south of the city. However, there were no confirmed advances made by Russian forces in these engagements.
Chasiv Yar
Russian forces continued offensive operations near Chasiv Yar without making any confirmed advances. Russian milbloggers claimed advances in forest areas north and east of the city and consolidation of positions in the easternmost part of Chasiv Yar. The Ukrainian General Staff reported Russian attacks north, east, and southeast of Chasiv Yar.
Toretsk
Russian forces recently advanced towards the northern outskirts of Pivdenne, southeast of Toretsk, as confirmed by geolocated footage. Russian milbloggers claimed gains within southern Niu-York, southwest of Toretsk, although visual evidence is lacking. A Ukrainian soldier reported that Russian forces launch three to four guided glide bombs against Ukrainian positions in Toretsk every 30 minutes. The Ukrainian General Staff reported fighting near Toretsk, Niu-York, Yurivka, Pivdenne, and Pivnichne.
Avdiivka
Russian forces continued offensive operations west of Avdiivka, with reported advances in some areas. Ukrainian Lieutenant Colonel Nazar Voloshyn refuted Russian claims of seizing Yasnobrodivka, although some milbloggers maintain that Russian forces control the area and are advancing towards the Karlivske Reservoir. Russian milbloggers also claimed advances along the S-050918 highway in Yevhenivka and near Novooleksandrivka, Vozdvyzhenka, Novoselivka Persha, Karlivka, and Netaylove. One milblogger suggested that Russian forces are close to encircling Novoselivka Persha but downplayed its significance due to its small size. The Ukrainian General Staff reported ongoing fighting in various locations north, northwest, and southwest of Avdiivka.
Southwest of Donetsk City
Russian forces reportedly advanced west and southwest of Donetsk City on July 10 amid ongoing offensive operations. Russian milbloggers claimed advances between Slovyansk and Chekhov streets in central Krasnohorivka and continued progress within the urban sector of the city. One milblogger complained about poor inter-unit communication among Russian forces west of Donetsk City, citing an instance of friendly fire between the 1st DNR AC and 150th Motorized Rifle Division. Both Russian and Ukrainian sources reported continued fighting near Krasnohorivka, Heorhiivka, Paraskoviivka, and Kostyantynivka.
Zaporizhia Front – Initiative Russia
Zaporizhia-Donetsk Border Area
Russian forces continued limited ground attacks near Urozhaine and Makarivka in the Donetsk-Zaporizhia Oblast border area without making any advances. Ukrainian Mariupol Mayoral Advisor Petro Andryushchenko reported the movement of 21 covered Russian military trucks from Zaporizhia Oblast towards Volnovakha, approximately 55 kilometers southeast of Velyka Novosilka.
Zaporizhia Line
The Ukrainian General Staff reported Russian attacks in the Hulyaipole direction. Russian forces conducted heavy glide bomb strikes near Chumatske, south of Hulyaipole, possibly in preparation for ground attacks.
Positional engagements continued near Robotyne without any changes to the frontline in western Zaporizhia Oblast. The Ukrainian General Staff reported Russian attacks near Robotyne, Mala Tokmachka, and Novoandriivka. Russian sources claimed ongoing positional battles north and northwest of Verbove, where Russian forces are attempting to consolidate previously occupied lines. A Russian milblogger reported the death of an FSB counterintelligence operative who was fighting alongside and supervising Russian forces in the Zaporizhia direction between July 1 and 2.
Ukrainian social media sources shared footage showing Russian servicemembers of the 70th Motorized Rifle Regiment executing two Ukrainian POWs near Robotyne in Zaporizhia Oblast in June 2024. Ukrainian Prosecutor General Andriy Kostin stated that the video clearly showed the Ukrainians surrendering and cooperating before their execution, which is a violation of the Geneva Convention on POWs. The same Russian regiment was previously implicated in the execution of Ukrainian POWs in the same area in late May 2024. The repeated occurrence of these war crimes by the same unit suggests that the Russian military command endorses a culture of permissiveness towards such atrocities and is failing to properly discipline troops and maintain order.
Kherson (Dnipro River) Front – Initiative None
Positional engagements continued in the eastern (left) bank of Kherson Oblast near Krynky and on the Dnipro River Delta islands, without any significant changes reported.
Ukraine News
The Ukrainian Air Force reported that Russian forces launched one Iskander-M ballistic missile, four Kh-59/69 cruise missiles, and 20 Shahed-136/131 drones overnight. Ukrainian forces shot down 14 Shahed drones over various oblasts and prevented three Kh-59/69 missiles and three Shahed drones from reaching their targets. Missile debris damaged port infrastructure near Odesa, killing two and wounding one. Russian drones struck energy infrastructure in Rivne Oblast, causing power outages in half of the region. A Russian missile struck civilian infrastructure in Voznesensk, Mykolaiv Oblast, killing one and wounding eight.
Ukraine’s Allies
NATO allies reaffirmed their commitment to supporting Ukraine at the NATO summit in Washington, DC on July 9-10, 2024. They announced new security assistance packages, including establishing a NATO command center in Germany and a joint training center in Poland, providing air defense systems and F-16 fighter jets, and making bilateral security agreements. The US and partners pledged five additional Patriot systems and dozens of tactical air defense systems. The Netherlands, Denmark, and Norway committed to providing F-16s to Ukraine starting in the summer of 2024, with the Netherlands allocating additional funds for ammunition. The new UK Prime Minister, Keir Starmer, reaffirmed allowing Ukrainian forces to strike military targets in Russia with UK-provided Storm Shadow missiles.
Russian Mobilization and Defense Industrial Base
The Russian Ministry of Defense (MoD) announced that it trained the first batch of Moscow Military District (MMD) counter-drone instructors at the Alabino training ground in Moscow Oblast. These instructors will later deploy to rear areas of the combat zone to train elements of the Western Group of Forces (GoF) in defending against Ukrainian drones. A Russian instructor published a guide for Russian servicemen to protect themselves from Ukrainian “Baba Yaga” drone attacks, claiming that thermal imaging, common sense, and shooting ability are necessary to counter these night-operating drones. Russian officials also held the “Archipelago 2024” event in Yuzhno-Sakhalinsk, Sakhalin Oblast, showcasing the Russian drone industry and testing over 30 types of Russian drone detection and defense equipment to a large audience from various regions.
The Financial Times (FT) reported that Russia continues to produce Kh-101 cruise missiles using US and Western electronics and technology. Ukrainian analysis of a Kh-101 fired in January 2024 found 16 Western-made electronic components, some from US companies. FT analysis of Russian filings from 2023 revealed that Russian companies were able to purchase dual-use electronic goods for Kh-101 missiles on the open market and import them through China. The Royal United Services Institute (RUSI) reported in June that Russia’s production of Kh-101 missiles increased nearly eightfold from 2021 to 2023, producing 420 missiles in 2023 compared to 56 in 2021. RUSI also reported that internal Russian Ministry of Defense (MoD) assessments from 2023 suggest Western sanctions have imposed a 30 percent price increase for critical microelectronic components used in military equipment and weapons.
Russian forces are reportedly adapting their electronic warfare (EW) capabilities, impacting the effectiveness of some Western-provided weapons on the battlefield. Ukrainian military officials and commanders told the Wall Street Journal that Russian EW has reduced the effectiveness of M982 Excalibur munitions, HIMARS systems, and Ground-Launched Small Diameter Bomb munitions. Previous reports also suggest that Russian EW has reduced the effect of Joint Direct Attack Munition-Extended Range (JDAM-ER) guided munitions. Russia and Ukraine appear to be engaged in a technological race, with both sides adapting to each other’s innovations.
A Russian milblogger and former Storm Z instructor claimed that the Russian TOS-1A “Solntsepek” thermobaric artillery systems are more effective when used in densely concentrated urban combat areas rather than supporting offensive operations against sparsely concentrated targets in rural areas. The milblogger noted that the TOS-1A system lacks the precision and long-range capabilities needed to support the reconnaissance-fire complex, except when targeting Ukrainian positions in urban environments.
Russian Narrative and Propaganda
Russian actors are reportedly attempting to create the appearance of anti-government and anti-military sentiment within Ukraine. Russian opposition outlet Vazhnye Istorii reported that Russian darknet sites are offering contract sabotage jobs to burn Ukrainian military vehicles in Ukraine for $1,500 to $2,000. These advertisements have allegedly prompted the burning of Ukrainian military jeeps, which Russian state media and milbloggers have been widely reporting since late June 2024.
Source Material
Institute for the Study of War – understandingwar.org