Summary of the day: The NATO Parliamentary Assembly urged member states to allow Ukraine to use Western weapons against targets within Russian territory. Spain has signed a decade-long security agreement with Ukraine, while Ukrainian forces continue targeting Russian radar and infrastructure. Ukrainian forces have made advances near Lyptsi, with Russian troops advancing near Svatove and Avdiivka. Meanwhile, Russian President Putin’s pre-invasion statements to Chancellor Scholz about Ukraine’s sovereignty have resurfaced, and the GRU is linked to sabotage efforts in Europe.
These updates will be shorter until the end of July as we are on holiday visiting family and friends. We will be back to our normal coverage again starting on July 22, 2024.
What Can I Do To Help Ukraine? This is a question I receive all the time. We at Transform Ukraine are building longer-term housing for internally displaced Ukrainians. Visit Rebuild Ukraine for how you can assist in housing a Ukrainian family displaced by the war.
Beyond Ukraine – March Towards World War
Before Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine, President Putin told German Chancellor Scholz that Ukraine is not an independent state, and that Russia can forcibly change its borders. Scholz mentioned this on May 26, noting Putin’s belief that borders can be changed by force. Putin has consistently denied Ukraine’s independence and aims for its total defeat.
The New York Times reported on May 26 that Russian GRU is behind sabotage operations in Europe to disrupt arms supplies to Ukraine and create an anti-support movement. Targets included a paint factory in Poland, homes in Latvia, an IKEA store in Lithuania, and a UK warehouse. Western officials noted widespread Russian sabotage efforts, with NATO highlighting increased Russian hybrid activities in Europe. GRU agents have been active in the Czech Republic and Greece since 2014, attacking ammunition depots and attempting assassinations.
Russian media is heavily covering protests in Armenia, portraying Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan as unpopular due to his decisions post-Nagorno-Karabakh conflict. Kremlin news agency TASS highlighted calls for Pashinyan’s resignation over territorial concessions to Azerbaijan. A Kremlin-awarded Russian blogger amplifies these protests, accusing Pashinyan of weakness. This coverage pressures Pashinyan to restore ties with Russia.
The Russian Ministry of Defense (MoD) offered to assist Armenia with flooding in the north, although Armenia has not publicly requested this help. The Russian MoD directed its Gyumri military base to prepare personnel and equipment for flood response. Russian officials claim they are in contact with Armenian authorities and have provided portable pumps, but no Armenian requests for aid have been reported. This move is seen as Russia trying to present itself as a reliable ally amid Armenia’s efforts to distance itself from Russia.
Russian officials are considering removing the Taliban from their list of prohibited organizations. Russian representatives indicated that the Ministry of Foreign Affairs and Ministry of Justice have recommended this to President Putin. Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov acknowledged the Taliban as the “real power” in Afghanistan, suggesting this move reflects reality. Although not yet official, comments from officials imply the delisting is imminent. Taliban representatives are expected at the St. Petersburg International Economic Forum in June 2024. Russia aims to enhance cooperation with the Taliban, partly to combat the Islamic State-Khorasan Province (ISKP).
Russia may sign an agreement with the Sudanese Armed Forces (SAF) to exchange weapons for a logistics hub at Port Sudan. SAF Assistant Commander-in-Chief Yasser Al-Atta mentioned that a SAF delegation will soon visit Russia to finalize this deal. The planned Russian hub is described as “not exactly a military base.” Reports also suggest the SAF recaptured areas of Khartoum with Iranian drones. Russian officials, including Deputy Foreign Minister Mikhail Bogdanov, recently met with SAF leaders in Sudan. This move could align Russian and Iranian strategies in the region.
Situation On The Land, Sea, and Air in Ukraine
Kharkiv Front – Initiative Russia
Lyptsi
Ukrainian forces made small gains north of Kharkiv City near Lyptsi amid ongoing Russian attacks. Geolocated footage shows Ukrainians recaptured some territory in fields north of Lyptsi. A Russian blogger claimed Russian forces advanced up to 500 meters, but this is unconfirmed. Ground attacks continue near Lyptsi and Ternova. The Russian Ministry of Defense reported repelling a Ukrainian attack near Hlyboke.
Vovchansk
Russian forces continued their attacks northeast of Kharkiv City near Vovchansk, with no confirmed changes to the frontline. Russian milbloggers claimed minor advances on Lenina Street in Vovchansk, where heavy fighting persists, and reported that Ukrainian forces remain at the Vovchansk Aggregate Plant. Additionally, Russian forces continued ground attacks near Starytsya, southwest of Vovchansk.
Luhansk Front – Initiative Russia
Russian forces made confirmed advances along the Kupyansk-Svatove-Kreminna line amid ongoing offensive operations. Geolocated footage shows Russian progress east of Myasozharivka and west of Novovodyane, near Svatove. The Russian Ministry of Defense claimed the capture of Ivanivka, southeast of Kupyansk. Russian milbloggers reported advances toward Stelmakhivka, northwest of Novoselivske, 300 meters within Berestove, and within Bilohorivka, though these claims are unconfirmed. Offensive operations also continued near Synkivka, Petropavlivka, Kyslivka, and various other locations around Svatove and Kreminna.
Donetsk Front – Initiative Russia
Siversk
The Ukrainian General Staff reported continued Russian ground assaults southeast of Siversk near Vyimka, Verkhnokamyanske, and Spirne.
Chasiv Yar
Russian forces continued their offensive near Chasiv Yar with no confirmed changes to the frontline. A Russian milblogger claimed advances on the eastern and southern outskirts of the Kanal Microraion, but this is unverified. Ground attacks also occurred near the Novyi Microraion, Ivanivske, Klishchiivka, and Andriivka.
Avdiivka
Russian forces made confirmed advances northwest of Avdiivka during ongoing offensive operations. Geolocated footage shows Russian advances near Ocheretyne, Sokil, and Solovyove. The Russian Ministry of Defense claimed the capture of Netaylove, and reports suggest Russian forces advanced northwest and south of this area. Fighting also continued near Kalynove, Novooleksandrivka, Novoselivka Persha, Umanske, Yasnobrodivka, and Nevelske.
Southwest of Donetsk City
Russian forces reportedly advanced southwest of Donetsk City, but there were no confirmed changes to the frontline. Russian milbloggers claimed advances near Novomykhailivka and Paraskoviivka. Fighting also continued near Krasnohorivka, Pobieda, Kostyantynivka, and Solodke.
Zaporizhia Front – Initiative Russia
Zaporizhia-Donetsk Border Area
Russian forces reportedly advanced in the Donetsk-Zaporizhia border area, but no confirmed frontline changes occurred. Russian milbloggers claimed advances in northwestern Staromayorske and west of Urozhaine, though no visual evidence supports these claims. The Ukrainian General Staff reported repelling Russian assaults near these areas.
Zaporizhia Line
Positional fighting continued in western Zaporizhia Oblast near Robotyne and Verbove.
Kherson (Dnipro River) Front – Initiative None
Positional fighting continued in eastern Kherson Oblast near Krynky. The Ukrainian General Staff reported repelling four Russian attacks near Krynky and other bridgeheads, indicating possible Ukrainian positions on the east bank. The exact locations remain unclear.
Ukraine News
Ukraine’s Southern Operational Command reported that Russian forces struck the airport in Zaporizhzhia City with a Kh-59 missile on May 26.
Russian forces launched intense glide bomb strikes on Kharkiv City and northern Kharkiv Oblast. The Ukrainian General Staff reported 25 glide bombs, including two on Kharkiv City. The attacks hit an industrial facility and a residential area, killing one person and injuring 11.
Ukraine’s Allies
The NATO Parliamentary Assembly called for member states to allow Ukraine to use Western-provided weapons to strike within Russian territory and accelerate critical weapon deliveries. Over 200 representatives supported this declaration. Some countries, like the UK, have already lifted such restrictions, but more are needed to enable Ukraine to defend itself effectively. Sweden also supports Ukraine’s right to defend itself within international law.
Spain signed a 10-year security agreement with Ukraine, pledging six billion euros in military aid by 2027. This includes Leopard tanks, Patriot missiles, and artillery ammunition. Spain will send 10 refurbished Leopard tanks to Ukraine before June 30.
Ukrainian Commander-in-Chief Oleksandr Syrskyi announced he signed documents permitting French military instructors to visit training centers in Ukraine. Syrskyi, along with Defense Minister Rustem Umerov, had a video call with French Defense Minister Sebastien Lecornu and welcomed France’s initiative. Syrskyi hopes this will inspire other partners to join. Discussions about sending instructors began after French President Macron’s meeting with European leaders in February.
Ukraine’s Western allies continue to support its war effort. On May 22, Sweden announced a $7 billion military aid package over three years. Germany sent 10 Leopard tanks, 8,500 rounds of artillery ammunition, and an IRIS-T air defense system. The UK-led International Fund for Ukraine pledged $191 million for air defense and maritime capabilities.
Ukrainian Mobilization and Defense Industrial Base
European countries are also working to strengthen Ukraine’s defense industry. Defense ministers from eight countries urged the European Commission and other entities to form long-term industrial partnerships with Ukrainian companies.
Ukraine is advancing its domestic weapons production. The Ukrainian Ministry of Defense reported registering 13 new weapon samples and adopting a new anti-aircraft missile system. Ukrainian forces have also used “Sea Baby” naval drones equipped with Grad MLRS systems in combat.
Russia News
Ukrainian forces targeted Russian radar systems and oil infrastructure. They used drones to strike a radar system in Orenburg and damaged a Rosneft fuel station in Oryol. Russian forces intercepted multiple drones in Bryansk, Belgorod, Oryol, and Krasnodar, where falling drones caused fires.
Russian Mobilization and Defense Industrial Base
Russian forces are formalizing irregular units. The Donetsk People’s Republic’s Vostok Battalion, now part of Rosgvardia, announced the creation of a rapid response (SOBR) detachment and a riot police (OMON) battalion. Alexander Khodakovsky, former Vostok commander, may oversee these units.
The UK Ministry of Defense (MoD) reported that the Russian MoD is issuing a new journal called Politruk to indoctrinate soldiers with the Kremlin’s war justifications. Launched on May 22, it draws from Soviet-era political education, portraying the conflict as a fight against “Nazis” and questioning Ukrainian statehood.
Russia’s Allies
Russia deployed aircraft to Belarus for joint military exercises with the Belarusian Air Force. The exercises, running from May 27-31, aim to improve the regional air defense system. Russian Mi-24 and Mi-8 helicopters, Su-24MR reconnaissance aircraft, and Su-30SM fighters are participating alongside Belarusian forces.
Belarusian President Alexander Lukashenko met Altai Krai Governor Viktor Tomenko in Minsk to discuss cooperation in agriculture and other fields. Tomenko also met Gomel Oblast officials to strengthen regional ties.
Russian Narratives and Propaganda
The Kremlin is using Ukrainian figures to discredit President Volodymyr Zelensky. On May 27, Kremlin-affiliated former Ukrainian MP Viktor Medvedchuk claimed Ukrainian forces should stop following Zelensky’s orders, asserting he is no longer a legitimate president. This is part of intensified efforts to delegitimize Zelensky after May 20, which would have marked the end of his first term if not for the invasion. Under martial law, Ukrainian elections are postponed, aligning with the constitution. The Kremlin may aim to declare a Kremlin-backed actor as president and continues to use affiliated figures for this narrative.
MGIMO announced a new program for information warfare specialists starting September 2024, supported by the Russian presidential administration. This underscores the Kremlin’s emphasis on information operations as a crucial part of statecraft.
Source Material
Institute for the Study of War – understandingwar.org