Summary of the day: Russian President Vladimir Putin articulated a theory of victory in Ukraine, assuming indefinite gradual advances by Russian forces, a failure of Ukrainian counteroffensives, and a war of attrition favoring Russia. Putin’s strategy hinges on the West eventually abandoning Ukraine, despite current Western support and security assistance. He also addressed Russia’s labor shortages and framed the economic hardships as necessary for sustaining the war. Meanwhile, US and French leaders announced new military support for Ukraine, with the US providing a $225 million security package and France offering Mirage 2000-5 fighter jets and training for 4,500 Ukrainian soldiers. Additionally, Russian forces made advances near Svatove, near Chasiv Yar, and northwest of Avdiivka.
These updates will be shorter until the end of July and will only use the Institute for the Study of War as a source while we are on holiday visiting family and friends. We will be back to our normal coverage again starting on July 22, 2024.
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Summary of Putin’s Address at St. Petersburg International Economic Forum
Russian President Vladimir Putin outlined a gradual strategy for victory in Ukraine, focusing on slow advances and a war of attrition. He believes Russia can “squeeze” Ukrainian forces out of desired territories without large-scale mobilization, relying on recent recruitment of 160,000 personnel in 2024. Putin assumes Ukraine cannot sustain resources to counter prolonged Russian advances and expects Western support for Ukraine to wane. He framed Russia’s economic challenges positively, proposing a 10-point plan to boost the economy and address labor shortages, emphasizing reforms in education, industry automation, AI, and research. He also introduced his daughters and other officials’ children at SPIEF, likely preparing them for future roles, while independent reports highlighted their participation in discussions on defense and biotechnology.
Putin continues to portray Ukrainian President Zelensky as illegitimate, suggesting the Verkhovna Rada as the legitimate body for negotiations. He misrepresents the Ukrainian Constitution, arguing that Zelensky’s term extension is illegal and power should shift to the Rada’s speaker. Putin claims Zelensky has “usurped” power, using constitutional articles on presidential resignation, incapacity, and impeachment to support his argument. He also notes that the Rada’s powers can be extended during martial law, insisting the president’s term cannot. These efforts aim to undermine Zelensky’s legitimacy and promote the Rada as the rightful authority.
In response to labor shortages, Putin proposed pension increases for retirees who continue working and emphasized the need for skilled migrant labor. He stressed unity and respect for Russia’s diverse populations while acknowledging the challenge of balancing labor needs with anti-migrant sentiments. Putin’s strategy depends on maintaining the initiative in Ukraine, with gradual advances aimed at weakening Western support and resources for Ukraine. He also clarified that Ukrainian strikes on Russian territory with Western weapons do not trigger a nuclear response, marking a shift from previous threats. Putin’s recent speeches and actions reveal a complex approach to sustaining the war effort and preparing for future leadership transitions.
Beyond Ukraine – The March Towards World War
US National Security Council Senior Director Pranay Vaddi announced a new US nuclear weapons policy to deter Russia, China, North Korea, and Iran. Speaking at the 2024 Arms Control Association meeting, Vaddi said the US might need to deploy more strategic nuclear weapons and should be ready if the president decides so. He affirmed the US commitment to arms control and non-proliferation agreements. Vaddi noted that Russia has rejected talks on a successor to the New START pact, expiring in 2026, and China has refused to discuss its nuclear arsenal with the US.
The Kremlin is continuing its efforts to destabilize the Balkans and undermine the 1995 Dayton Accords. On June 6, Russian President Vladimir Putin met with Milorad Dodik, President of Republika Srpska, the Serbian entity within Bosnia and Herzegovina, at the St. Petersburg International Economic Forum. Dodik announced plans to adopt a “foreign agents” bill, restricting non-profits with foreign funding, and stated intentions to hold a referendum on Republika Srpska’s independence. These actions align with Russia’s strategy to influence the Balkans, create divisions in the West, and destabilize the region.
Peace Talks
Kremlin officials continue to undermine the legitimacy of Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky and the upcoming peace conference in Switzerland. Kremlin Spokesperson Dmitry Peskov, Federation Council Chairperson Valentina Matvienko, and Deputy Foreign Minister Mikhail Galuzin all claim Zelensky has been illegitimate since May 20, following the end of his term if elections had been held in March 2024. However, the Ukrainian Constitution allows the president to remain in office during martial law, which aligns with Ukraine’s decision not to hold elections. Senior Kremlin officials use this claim to argue that Zelensky cannot negotiate with Russia, and propagandist Vladimir Medinsky dismissed the upcoming peace conference.
Situation On The Land, Sea, and Air in Ukraine
Ukrainian forces conducted a missile strike on occupied Luhansk City, likely using ATACMS missiles. Russian sources, including the Ministry of Defense, claimed up to 12 ATACMS missiles with cluster munitions were launched, and most were shot down. Geolocated footage shows smoke and explosions in Luhansk City. Ukrainian official Artem Lysohor said the strike targeted a memorial area with Russian military barracks and hit a Russian oil depot.
Ukrainian forces reportedly conducted drone strikes targeting occupied Crimea and Rostov Oblast. Russian sources, including the Ministry of Defense, claimed that 18 Ukrainian drones were shot down near the Kerch Strait and Rostov Oblast. The Russian opposition outlet Astra reported that a Ukrainian drone strike damaged two Russian radar stations near Mysove in Crimea.
Kharkiv Front – Initiative Russia
Lyptsi
As of 1400 local time on June 7, the Ukrainian General Staff reported no Russian offensive operations in the Lyptsi direction, north of Kharkiv City. They noted Russian forces are regrouping, likely before resuming attacks. A Russian milblogger claimed positional fighting near Lyptsi continued. Geolocated footage shows Ukrainian forces operating in southwestern Hlyboke, indicating a local counterattack. Ukrainian spokesperson Yuriy Povkh reported 25 Russian personnel abandoned positions in the Lyptsi area and observed Chechen Akhmat Spetsnaz units acting as a blocking detachment. Povkh also noted no significant Russian force buildup near Zolochiv, northwest of Kharkiv, suggesting no imminent offensive there.
Vovchansk
Fighting continued northeast of Kharkiv City in Vovchansk, but there were no confirmed changes to the frontline. Both Ukrainian spokesperson Yuriy Povkh and Russian milbloggers reported ongoing clashes in central Vovchansk. Additionally, the Ukrainian General Staff noted Russian attacks near Tykhe, just east of Vovchansk.
Luhansk Front – Initiative Russia
Russian forces advanced northwest of Svatove during ongoing operations along the Kupyansk-Svatove line. Geolocated footage from June 6 suggests Russian advances northwest of Ivanivka, but there’s no confirmation of their control. Russian milbloggers claimed further advances, but these are unverified. Ukrainian minefields are reportedly slowing Russian progress. Geolocated footage from June 4 indicates earlier advances near Orlyanka. Offensive operations continued in multiple areas near Kupyansk and Svatove. Ukrainian forces repelled a Russian assault in the Kupyansk direction, destroying four BMP vehicles. Russian strikes are complicating Ukrainian logistics across the Oskil River, targeting a bridge near Kruhlyakivka. Despite these strikes, Ukrainian supply lines remain functional.
Both Russian and Ukrainian forces reportedly made gains near Kreminna, but there were no confirmed changes to the front line. Russian milbloggers claimed that Russian forces advanced towards Terny, while Ukrainian forces were said to have advanced southeast of Yampolivka. However, these claims remain unconfirmed. Russian forces continued offensive operations near Novosadove and Nevske (northwest of Kreminna), Terny and Torske (west of Kreminna), Yampil (southwest of Kreminna), and the Serebryanske forest area (south of Kreminna).
Donetsk Front – Initiative Russia
Siversk
Russian forces continued offensive operations near Siversk, but no changes to the frontline were confirmed. The Ukrainian General Staff reported Russian attacks near Bilohorivka (northeast of Siversk) and Verkhnokamyanske (east of Siversk) on June 6. A Russian milblogger claimed that the eastern part of Verkhnokamyanske is a contested “gray zone.” Russian forces are reportedly operating near Rozdolivka (south of Siversk).
Chasiv Yar
Russian forces advanced near Chasiv Yar amid ongoing offensive operations. Geolocated footage shows Russian advances in northeastern Kanal Microraion, the easternmost part of Chasiv Yar. Russian milbloggers also claimed advances in eastern Kanal Microraion, but this is unconfirmed. Offensive operations continued north of Chasiv Yar near Kalynivka, in eastern Chasiv Yar near Kanal and Novyi Microraions, east near Ivanivske, and southeast near Klishchiivka. Russian forces reportedly used a large above-ground pipe to move covertly into Kanal Microraion. Ukrainian forces have targeted the pipe with explosives dropped from drones.
Avdiivka
Russian forces advanced near Avdiivka amid ongoing offensive operations. Geolocated footage shows Russian advances east of Novooleksandrivka and in central Sokil, both northwest of Avdiivka. Russian milbloggers claimed further advances near Karlivka, Novopokrovske, Yasnobrodivka, Kalynove, and Umanske, though these claims are unconfirmed. Offensive operations continued north of Avdiivka near Kalynove; northwest near Novooleksandrivka, Yevhenivka, Sokil, Novoselivka Persha, Novopokrovske, and Prohres; and west near Yasnobrodivka, Umanske, Nevelske, and Karlivka.
Southwest of Donetsk City
Russian forces continued offensive operations west and southwest of Donetsk City, but there were no confirmed changes to the frontline. A Russian milblogger claimed Russian forces advanced nearly one kilometer south of Pobieda, but this is unconfirmed. Offensive operations continued near Krasnohorivka and Heorhiivka (west of Donetsk City) and near Kostyantynivka and Paraskoviivka (southwest of Donetsk City).
Zaporizhia Front – Initiative Russia
Zaporizhia-Donetsk Border Area
Positional engagements continued along the Donetsk-Zaporizhia Oblast border, with no confirmed changes to the frontline. A Russian milblogger claimed that Russian forces made slight advances in Urozhaine, south of Velyka Novosilka, but this is unconfirmed. Fighting continued near Staromayorske and Urozhaine (south of Velyka Novosilka) and near Novodarivka (southwest of Velyka Novosilka).
Zaporizhia Line
Positional fighting continued in western Zaporizhia Oblast near Robotyne, Verbove (east of Robotyne), and Kopani (northwest of Robotyne). A Russian milblogger claimed that Russian forces advanced west of Novopokrovka (northeast of Robotyne), but this is unconfirmed. Geolocated footage suggests Ukrainian forces had previously advanced north of Zherebyanky (west of Robotyne), though these gains likely occurred earlier.
Kherson (Dnipro River) Front – Initiative None
Ukrainian forces maintain positions on the eastern bank of Kherson Oblast, outside their small tactical bridgehead near Krynky. Geolocated footage shows Ukrainian positions north of Pishchanivka on the western bank of the Upper Konka River. The Ukrainian General Staff noted Ukrainian positions near Krynky and other left-bank areas on May 27. Russian milbloggers reported ongoing fighting near the Antonivsky bridge and Ukrainian operations on islands near Krynky. Russian forces are operating near Pishchanivka and Oleshky Sands National Park.
Ukraine News
Russian forces launched missile and drone strikes against Ukraine. Ukrainian Air Force Commander Lieutenant General Mykola Oleshchuk reported that Russia launched five Kh-101/555 cruise missiles and 53 Shahed-136/131 drones. Ukrainian forces downed all five missiles and 48 drones over various regions, including Dnipropetrovsk, Zaporizhia, Kherson, and Kyiv. A drone strike caused a fire at an industrial facility in Kyiv Oblast, and a Shahed drone struck Lyzohubivka in Kharkiv Oblast. Ukrainian Air Force Spokesperson Major Ilya Yevlash noted that Russian forces targeted critical energy infrastructure, but no energy facilities were damaged. Yevlash also mentioned the unusually large number of Shahed drones used and Russia’s attempts to bypass Ukrainian air defenses.
Due to Russian strikes on energy infrastructure, Ukraine is adapting to energy constraints. Ukrzaliznytsia, the state railway company, announced temporary schedule adjustments, route reductions, and discontinuations for some suburban electric trains to save energy. Ukrenergo, the state electricity operator, announced plans to start generating power with an additional reactor at a nuclear power plant to help relieve power constraints for two weeks.
Ukraine’s Allies
The US Department of Defense announced a $225 million security assistance package for Ukraine. The package includes missiles for HAWK air defense systems, Stinger anti-aircraft missiles, ammunition for HIMARS, 155mm and 105mm artillery rounds, M113 armored personnel carriers, TOW missiles, Javelin and AT-4 anti-armor systems, and other equipment.
On June 6, French President Emmanuel Macron announced that France will provide Ukraine with Mirage 2000-5 fighter jets and train a brigade of 4,500 Ukrainian soldiers. Ukrainian pilots will train in France for five to six months and are expected to be ready by the end of 2024.
Life in Russian-Occupied Ukraine
The Ukrainian Main Military Intelligence Directorate (GUR) has identified over 200 Russian and Belarusian officials involved in forcibly deporting Ukrainian children to Russia and Belarus. On June 4, the Ukrainian Ministry of Reintegration announced a new page on the GUR’s database listing these individuals as sponsors and accomplices to Russia’s war effort. Kremlin-appointed Children’s Rights Commissioner Maria Lvova-Belova claimed in July 2023 that Russia had “accepted” over 700,000 children from occupied Ukraine since February 2022. Ukrainian First Lady Olena Zelenska stated on June 5, 2024, that Ukraine has verified the names of over 19,000 children forcibly deported to Russia.
Russian officials are considering creating a new federal district, “Novorossiya,” to include occupied regions of Ukraine. On June 6, Russian Zaporizhia Oblast governor Yevgeny Balitsky announced this proposal, which would incorporate Crimea and occupied parts of Donetsk, Luhansk, Zaporizhia, and Kherson oblasts. A Russian insider suggested this move aims to integrate these areas economically into Russia. However, Kremlin Spokesperson Dmitry Peskov clarified that the Presidential Administration is not officially discussing this, although the topic is being debated among politicians and experts. It remains unclear if the new district would include only occupied areas or entire administrative regions. In February 2024, President Putin signed a decree integrating these regions into the Southern Military District, showing Russia’s intent to fully incorporate them.
Russian and occupation officials continue efforts to integrate occupied Ukraine into Russia. On June 4, Sberbank Head German Gref announced plans to open 16 branches in occupied Ukraine by the end of July 2024. Sberbank is also installing ATMs in Donetsk City, Luhansk City, and Makiivka. Luhansk People’s Republic Head Leonid Pasechnik signed an agreement to integrate Luhansk Oblast with Russia’s market and legal systems. Russian Transport Minister Roman Starovoit announced plans for a high-speed railway line to reduce travel time from Moscow to Luhansk from 20 hours to 12 hours.
Russia News
The Russian Supreme Court declared the non-existent “Anti-Russian Separatist Movement” as extremist, aligning with efforts to broaden the legal definition of “extremism” to target anti-war sentiment. This follows an April 26 request from the Ministry of Justice. Russian opposition media noted that the organization does not exist, like other fictitious groups previously labeled extremist to cover broader social movements. This new designation is likely aimed at prosecuting anti-war sentiments in Russia and occupied Ukraine, particularly within ethnic minority communities advocating for better treatment of military personnel.
Russian Narrative and Propaganda
Pro-Kremlin actors continue efforts to discredit the Ukrainian military and its new mobilization law. Ukraine’s Main Military Intelligence Directorate (GUR) warned that Russian special services are preparing an information campaign against Ukrainian military leaders, using “films” and other content in both Ukrainian and Western media.
Russian milbloggers are amplifying efforts to target Western states like Germany, France, and the US as part of a broader campaign to undermine Western support for Ukraine.
Source Material
Institute for the Study of War – understandingwar.org