Summary of the day: Russian President Vladimir Putin repackaged threats about direct confrontation with the West, suggesting Russia may provide long-range strike capabilities to unspecified actors, while indicating that Russian forces may be suffering significant monthly casualties in Ukraine. Ukrainian forces struck an oil refinery in Rostov Oblast and an oil depot in Belgorod Oblast, continuing their strategic offensive. Meanwhile, Russian forces advanced within Vovchansk, southeast of Kupyansk, northeast of Siversk, northwest of Avdiivka, south of Velyka Novosilka, and near Krynky. French authorities are investigating recent pro-Russian sabotage operations, and limitations on Western training capabilities for F-16 pilots are affecting Ukraine’s future air capabilities.
These updates will be shorter until the end of July and will only use the Institute for the Study of War as a source while we are on holiday visiting family and friends. We will be back to our normal coverage again starting on July 22, 2024.
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Beyond Ukraine – The March Towards World War
Russian President Vladimir Putin threatened to supply long-range strike capabilities to unspecified actors in response to Western support for Ukraine, aiming to influence Western decisions about Ukraine’s ability to target Russia with Western weapons. These threats are not a new escalation in Ukraine but are part of an effort to deter Western support by leveraging fears of wider conflict. Despite the threat, Russia is unlikely to supply such weapons due to their own need for these systems in Ukraine. The UK recently allowed Ukraine to use Storm Shadow missiles for strikes within Russia, which may have prompted Putin’s threat. Russia might assist adversaries in acquiring strike capabilities, as seen in its reported missile technology trade with North Korea. This latest threat continues Russia’s ongoing effort to limit Western support for Ukraine.
Russian naval vessels will visit Cuba from June 12-17, likely aiming to invoke the Cuban Missile Crisis and encourage US self-deterrence. The visit includes four Russian ships, one reportedly carrying hypersonic missiles. Cuba claims no nuclear weapons are involved. This move, part of Russia’s effort to highlight strong relations with US adversaries, aligns with Putin’s threats to supply long-range strike capabilities to deter Western support for Ukraine.
French authorities are investigating recent pro-Russian sabotage and influence operations aimed at weakening support for Ukraine. A man with pro-Russian beliefs and dual Ukrainian-Russian citizenship was detained near Paris after being injured while making explosives in his hotel room. Authorities found more explosives, weapons, money, and passports. He allegedly planned to attack French security assistance for Ukraine and had fought with the Russian military. It’s unclear if this incident is part of a broader Russian sabotage campaign. French officials are also probing potential Russian Federal Security Service involvement in efforts to destabilize France and undermine President Macron.
The Russian Investigative Committee announced the arrest of a French citizen for failing to provide required documentation for “foreign agents.” The committee accused the man of collecting information on the Russian military that could threaten state security, suggesting espionage without formally charging him. Reuters reported that Laurent Vinatier, a Russia and Eurasia advisor for the Swiss-based Center for Humanitarian Dialogue, was the arrested individual, a fact confirmed by French President Emmanuel Macron.
Russian and Taliban officials are discussing bilateral cooperation, with Russia likely to soon remove the Taliban from its list of banned organizations. At the St. Petersburg Economic Forum, Taliban Minister Abdul Umari expressed interest in expanding economic and energy ties with Russia and anticipated Russia’s decision to delist the Taliban. President Putin had already shown support for this move. Russian Security Council Secretary Sergei Shoigu highlighted concerns about new militant camps in Afghanistan, suggesting Russia seeks to work with the Taliban to combat the Islamic State-Khorasan Province (IS-KP).
Situation On The Land, Sea, and Air in Ukraine
Ukrainian forces reportedly sank a Russian tugboat near occupied Crimea. The Ukrainian Main Military Intelligence Directorate (GUR) stated that GUR units hit a Russian Black Sea Fleet tugboat in Lake Panske, using naval drones to break through Russian defenses. Geolocated footage from the GUR confirms the strike, and the tugboat reportedly sank. GUR Spokesperson Andriy Yusov credited Ukrainian Magura V5 naval drones with sinking over $200 million worth of Russian ships since the invasion began.
Limitations on Western training facilities are creating bottlenecks that will hinder Ukraine’s ability to effectively use F-16 fighter jets. Denmark, Norway, the Netherlands, and Belgium plan to send over 60 F-16s to Ukraine in Summer 2024, but training facilities in the US, Denmark, and Romania can only accommodate a limited number of Ukrainian pilots. The US National Guard plans to train 12 pilots by September 2024, Denmark is training eight pilots until November 2024, and Romania’s facility is not yet operational. A full squadron requires 40 pilots, and current training constraints may delay full deployment until the end of 2025.
Western countries have permitted Ukraine to use F-16s for strikes within Russia, but this depends on Ukraine’s ability to destroy Russian air defenses. President Zelensky stated that Ukraine needs 120-130 advanced fighters to achieve air parity with Russia. Ukraine can support ground operations with F-16s if it destroys Russian air defenses, trains enough pilots, and receives sufficient F-16s promptly.
Russian forces have suddenly moved several Black Sea Fleet (BSF) vessels from the port in Novorossiysk, with some reportedly heading towards Crimea. Satellite imagery from June 5 shows at least 11 vessels, including patrol ships, missile ships, submarines, and landing ships, leaving the port. Additional imagery indicates that at least 10 vessels remain near Novorossiysk, and eight are sailing in formation in the Black Sea, likely towards Crimea. The reasons for the movement are unclear but may be related to logistical struggles following a recent Ukrainian strike on the Kerch Strait or concerns about potential Ukrainian attacks on the port.
Russian sources claimed that on June 5, Russian forces damaged a Ukrainian Su-25 aircraft at Dolhintsevo Airfield near Kryvyi Rih, Dnipropetrovsk Oblast, using Lancet drones.
Kharkiv Front – Initiative Russia
Lyptsi
On June 5, Russian forces conducted offensive operations near Lyptsi, but none were reported today, according to the Ukrainian General Staff. A Ukrainian soldier in the Kharkiv area noted that Russian forces are using FPV drones with thermal imaging for night assaults and conducting heavy artillery and guided bomb strikes. The soldier also mentioned that untrained personnel are being used for these assaults, and elements of the Chechen Akhmat Spetsnaz are operating in the area.
Vovchansk
Russian forces advanced near Vovchansk (northeast of Kharkiv City) amid ongoing fighting. Geolocated footage shows recent Russian advances within Starytsya (southwest of Vovchansk). A Russian milblogger reported a 400-meter advance in the Vovchansk direction. Fighting continued near the Aggregate Plant in central Vovchansk and near Starytsya and Buhruvatka. The Ukrainian General Staff noted that Russian forces conducted offensive operations near Vovchansk on June 5 but not on June 6.
Luhansk Front – Initiative Russia
Russian forces advanced southeast of Kupyansk, continuing ground attacks along the Kupyansk-Svatove-Kreminna line. Geolocated footage shows Russian advances northwest of Ivanivka during a mechanized attack, suggesting further gains in Ivanivka. Russian milbloggers reported capturing several Ukrainian positions 1.5 kilometers south of Vilshana and southwest of Yampolivka. Russian assaults also continued near Synkivka, Petropavlivka, Stepova Novoselivka, Stelmakhivka, Myasozharivka, Cherneshchyna, Druzhelyubivka, Nevske, and the Serebryanske forest area.
Donetsk Front – Initiative Russia
Siversk
Russian forces advanced in the Siversk direction amid ongoing ground attacks. Geolocated footage shows Russian advances southeast of Bilohorivka (northeast of Siversk). Russian milbloggers reported advances up to 500 meters towards Rozdolivka (south of Siversk). The Ukrainian General Staff reported fighting near Bilohorivka, Verkhnokamyanske, Vyimka, and Rozdolivka.
Chasiv Yar
Russian forces advanced near Chasiv Yar amid ongoing offensive operations. Geolocated footage shows advances southeast of Chasiv Yar on the eastern side of the Siverskyi-Donets Donbas Canal. A Russian milblogger reported advances on the canal’s west side, southeast of the Novyi Microraion in eastern Chasiv Yar. Fighting continued near Kalynivka, Ivanivske, the Kanal and Novyi microraions, and southeast near Klishchiivka and Andriivka.
Avdiivka
Russian forces advanced northwest of Avdiivka, as confirmed by geolocated footage published on June 1, showing movement on the eastern outskirts of Novooleksandrivka. Russian sources also claimed advances southwest of Kalynove, though this is unconfirmed. Footage from today shows Ukrainian forces repelling a Russian mechanized assault near Ocheretyne, involving unspecified elements of the Russian VDV. Fighting continued around Avdiivka, with activity near Kalynove, Novooleksandrivka, Prohres, Yevhenivka, Novopokrovske, Sokil, Novoselivka Persha, Yasnobrodivka, Umanske, and Karlivka.
Southwest of Donetsk City
Russian forces continued offensive operations west and southwest of Donetsk City, but no changes to the frontline were confirmed. Russian milbloggers claimed that Russian forces seized Heorhiivka and control up to half of Paraskoviivka, though these claims lack visual confirmation. Fighting continued near Krasnohorivka and Paraskoviivka.
Zaporizhia Front – Initiative Russia
Zaporizhia-Donetsk Border Area
Russian forces advanced in the Donetsk-Zaporizhia border area amid ongoing attacks. Geolocated footage shows advances southwest of Urozhaine. A Russian source claimed additional advances near Prechystivka, but this remains unconfirmed. Fighting continued near Urozhaine, Staromayorske, Pryyutne, and Novodarivka. The Ukrainian General Staff reported increased Russian activity in the area, and Russian forces are operating near Vuhledar.
Zaporizhia Line
Russian forces continued limited ground attacks in western Zaporizhia Oblast with no confirmed changes to the frontline. Attacks were reported near Robotyne, Verbove, and Mala Tokmachka. A Russian milblogger claimed advances along a 2.85-kilometer-wide front south and southeast of Robotyne, but this remains unconfirmed.
Kherson (Dnipro River) Front – Initiative None
Russian forces made a slight advance on the east bank of the Dnipro River near Krynky, with ongoing fighting in the area. Geolocated footage shows Russian infantry reaching the northern bank of the Krynka River before being struck by a Ukrainian drone.
Ukraine News
Russian forces launched missile and drone strikes targeting Ukraine. Ukrainian military officials reported two Iskander-M ballistic missiles were fired at Dnipropetrovsk Oblast and 18 Shahed-136/131 drones were launched from various locations, including Crimea. Ukrainian forces shot down 17 drones over Mykolaiv, Kherson, Zaporizhia, and Khmelnytskyi oblasts. Russian sources claimed a warehouse in Kherson City was hit overnight.
Ukrainian Mobilization and Defense Industrial Base
Ruslan Horbenko from the Ukrainian Verkhovna Rada Committee estimated that Ukraine’s military will recruit around 120,000 personnel in 2024. However, the slow arrival of Western security assistance will likely limit Ukraine’s ability to equip these forces adequately. President Zelensky acknowledged that delays in US aid complicate efforts to equip reserve brigades for frontline rotations. Faster and larger-scale Western aid is crucial for Ukraine to meet its recruitment and provisioning goals.
Russia News
Ukrainian forces struck an oil refinery in Rostov Oblast and an oil depot in Belgorod Oblast. Rostov Oblast Governor Vasily Golubov confirmed a fire at the Novoshakhtinsk oil refinery after a drone strike, which hit a liquefied hydrocarbon gas production site. This refinery, with a capacity of five million tons per year, has been targeted by Ukrainian forces before in June 2022 and March 2023. Belgorod Oblast Governor Vyacheslav Gladkov also reported a fire at an oil depot caused by a Ukrainian drone strike.
Russia’s ongoing demographic crisis is expected to create long-term constraints on its workforce. The Wall Street Journal reported on June 6 that Russian birth rates have declined significantly, especially in regions near Ukraine. Kremlin spokesperson Dmitri Peskov emphasized increasing birth rates as a priority. Since the invasion began, 920,000 Russians have left the country, and Russia has struggled to boost migration. The Gaidar Institute for Economic Policy noted significant labor shortages, with 47% of manufacturing firms affected. This, coupled with population decline, military mobilization, and reduced immigration, will limit economic growth. A report by the Institute of Economics projected a shortage of 4.8 million workers by the end of 2023. Russia’s inconsistent migration policies are also failing to meet labor demands, impacting its defense industry and overall economic stability.
Russia’s demographic crisis may be driving President Putin’s efforts to integrate Ukrainians into Russia. Kremlin officials are advocating for the return of “compatriots abroad” and the reunification of Belarusians and Ukrainians with Russia. A Russian victory in Ukraine would significantly impact Russia’s demographics by adding millions of Ukrainians, who could be used for military service and economic contributions. Nicholas Eberstadt from the American Enterprise Institute noted that the illegal annexation of Ukrainian territories has been Russia’s most effective population strategy, involving the deportation of roughly 4.8 million Ukrainians to Russia.
Russian Mobilization and Defense Industrial Base
Putin indicated that Russian forces might be suffering around 20,000 monthly casualties in Ukraine, with about 5,000 killed and 15,000 wounded, aligning with some lower-end Ukrainian reports. Despite claims of recruiting around 30,000 personnel monthly, Russian officials are worried about declining recruitment rates ahead of their expected Summer 2024 offensive. Russian forces have recently improved their ability to generate and sustain troops, allowing them to replenish frontline losses and maintain their offensive pace. However, this has limited their capacity to escalate operations significantly in any direction. Despite plans to recruit 100,000 personnel for summer offensives and 300,000 by the end of 2024, Russia is unlikely to meet these targets. Poorly trained and equipped reserves are not expected to conduct large-scale assaults effectively if Ukraine can continue its resistance.
On June 3, Russian drone producer Stratim Design Bureau announced that Russian forces in Ukraine are testing two new drones with limited autonomous targeting capabilities. The “Rusak” quadcopter and the “Tyuvik” fixed-wing drone can autonomously strike targets set by operators. Stratim claimed these drones are resistant to electronic warfare interference. The “Rusak” carries up to three kilograms, has a 10-kilometer range, and a 10-minute flight time. The “Tyuvik” carries up to three kilograms, has a 30-kilometer range, and a 20-minute flight time. Both drones will be showcased at the HeliRussia exhibition in Moscow from June 10 to 12.
Russia’s Allies
Russia and Belarus are working to strengthen their cooperation through the Union State. Russian Security Council Secretary Sergei Shoigu discussed security agreements with Belarusian officials. Russian Deputy Foreign Minister Mikhail Galuzin mentioned a new security agreement might be signed by December 2024 and that both countries are finalizing a system for mutual visa recognition. Additionally, Belarusian Energy Minister Viktor Karankevich noted significant progress toward a common energy market.
Russian Narrative and Propaganda
On June 5, Russian President Vladimir Putin repeated several false Kremlin narratives during a meeting with foreign journalists. He incorrectly claimed that Ukraine and the West started the war with the 2014 Euromaidan movement and accused the US of controlling Ukrainian policy and attempting to oust President Zelensky. Putin also used nuclear threats to deter Western support for Ukraine and falsely asserted that Ukraine’s Constitution does not allow presidential term extensions, questioning Zelensky’s legitimacy.
Source Material
Institute for the Study of War – understandingwar.org