Summary of the day: Mykhaylo Podolyak, advisor to the Ukrainian President’s Office, confirmed the arrival of US-provided military aid on the frontline, though it will take weeks to reach critical volumes. Sweden announced its largest military aid package to Ukraine, valued at $1.25 billion. Russian President Vladimir Putin appointed Alexei Dyumin as Secretary of Russia’s State Council and continues to prepare the Russian population for a prolonged war. Meanwhile, Russian forces advanced north and northeast of Kharkiv City, near Kreminna, Chasiv Yar, and Avdiivka.
These updates will be shorter until the end of July and will only use the Institute for the Study of War as a source while we are on holiday visiting family and friends. We will be back to our normal coverage again starting on July 22, 2024.
What Can I Do To Help Ukraine? This is a question I receive all the time. We at Transform Ukraine are building longer-term housing for internally displaced Ukrainians. Visit Rebuild Ukraine for how you can assist in housing a Ukrainian family displaced by the war.
Beyond Ukraine – March Towards World War
On May 28, Belarus suspended its participation in the Cold War-era Conventional Armed Forces (CFE) in Europe Treaty. The Belarusian Ministry of Foreign Affairs stated it would resume participation if NATO members do the same. This move follows Russia’s 2023 withdrawal from the treaty, likely aiming to deter Western military aid to Ukraine. Unlike its criticism of Moldova’s similar suspension in March 2024, Russia did not criticize Belarus, with state media claiming Belarus tried to preserve the treaty.
Belarusian Defense Minister Viktor Khrenin met with Kazakh Defense Minister Ruslan Zhaksylykov in Astana, Kazakhstan, to discuss strengthening military cooperation.
Russian academic Dmitry Suslov suggested in an op-ed that Russia conduct strategic nuclear exercises or a “demonstrative nuclear explosion” to intimidate the West and discourage support for Ukraine. Suslov’s comments are part of a broader Kremlin strategy to influence Western decision-makers through nuclear threats.
A Kremlin-affiliated milblogger expressed concern over Russia’s declining influence in Armenia after Armenia suspended the Russian TV channel Pervyi Kanal due to unpaid debts. This suspension reflects growing tensions, with Armenian officials considering terminating broadcasting agreements with Russia. Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov claimed the US and EU are also trying to diminish Russia’s influence in Central Asia.
Situation On The Land, Sea, and Air in Ukraine
US military aid has started arriving in Ukraine but will take weeks to reach critical levels, according to Mykhaylo Podolyak, an advisor to the Ukrainian President. Russia currently has an advantage in shells and missiles and may try to advance before US aid fully arrives. Additional Western military aid will also take time to reach the frontlines. Czech Prime Minister Petr Fiala announced that the first batches of 155mm artillery ammunition will arrive in Ukraine within days.
Western officials are increasingly supporting Ukraine’s right to use Western-supplied weapons against military targets in Russia. French President Macron and German Chancellor Scholz stated on May 28 that Ukraine can use such weapons to strike Russian sites involved in attacks on Ukraine, provided it adheres to international law. However, Germany’s stance against providing long-range missiles to Ukraine remains unchanged.
Several Western countries, including Canada, Poland, and Finland, have stated they do not restrict Ukraine from using their supplied weapons against military targets in Russia. Canada and Poland explicitly allow such use, while Finland expects adherence to international law. Ten countries now support Ukraine’s right to strike Russian military targets with provided weapons. The US, however, maintains its position against using its weapons for attacks in Russia.
The Russian Ministry of Defense claimed that Russian naval aviation intercepted two Ukrainian naval drones heading toward occupied Crimea in the northwestern Black Sea.
Kharkiv Front – Initiative Russia
Lyptsi
Russian forces made slight advances north of Kharkiv City near Lyptsi and within southeastern Hlyboke. Ukrainian sources noted that Russia is building up personnel near Hlyboke, using light vehicles to transport infantry. Russian reports claim advances of up to 350 meters in the Lyptsi area. Despite this, Ukrainian forces have reportedly slowed the Russian offensive, forcing some Russian units into defensive positions. Additionally, Russian assaults were reported towards Zelene, east of Lyptsi.
Vovchansk
Russian forces advanced northeast of Kharkiv City near Vovchansk and within northeastern Starytsya. Reports indicate they advanced up to 350 meters, with Ukrainian forces counterattacking in Vovchansk. The Ukrainian General Staff noted Russian assaults towards Synelnykove. Russian forces are consolidating positions near Buhruvatka, preparing for further assaults towards Vovchansk. Unlike in the Lyptsi area, Russian forces are not shifting to defensive operations here.
Luhansk Front – Initiative Russia
Russian forces advanced near Kreminna amid ongoing offensives along the Kupyansk-Svatove-Kreminna line. They moved east of Torske, west of Kreminna. Russian sources claimed advances near Berestove and Andriivka, though these are unverified. Ukrainian forces repelled Russian assaults in multiple locations, including near Kupyansk, Svatove, and Kreminna, as well as in the Serebryanske forest area and near Bilohorivka.
Donetsk Front – Initiative Russia
Siversk
The Ukrainian General Staff reported a Russian ground attack near Vyimka, northeast of Bakhmut, in the Siversk direction. Russian forces continue to operate near Spirne, southeast of Siversk.
Chasiv Yar
Russian forces have recently made slight advances east and southeast of Chasiv Yar. Geolocated footage shows Russian advances south of Ivanivske and within the Kanal Microraion in eastern Chasiv Yar. Reports indicate improved tactical positions in this area. Russian forces have established new footholds in the Novyi Microraion, though visual confirmation is lacking. Additionally, Russian forces are pushing Ukrainian forces out of forest areas north of Kalynivka. The Ukrainian General Staff reported Russian ground attacks near Novyi Microraion, Hryhorivka, Ivanivske, Klishchiivka, and Andriivka.
Avdiivka
Russian forces recently advanced northwest of Avdiivka. Footage shows a Russian mechanized squad advancing near Novopokrovske. The Ukrainian General Staff reported partial Russian success near Avdiivka on May 28 with air support. Russian milbloggers claimed advances in the Umanske area, with movements up to 420 meters in forested regions. Russian forces are also attacking along the Sokil-Umanske-Karlivka line and fighting near the Karlivske Reservoir. High-intensity attacks were reported northwest of Avdiivka near Novoselivka Persha, Novooleksandrivka, Sokil, and Prohres; west near Yasnobrodivka; and southwest near Nevelske.
Southwest of Donetsk City
Russian forces continued their offensive west and southwest of Donetsk City without any confirmed changes to the frontline. Russian sources shared footage of a platoon-sized assault near Krasnohorivka, claiming a breakthrough in Ukrainian defenses. Offensives also continued near Paraskoviivka, Kostyantynivka, and Vodyane. Russian forces are active near Kostyantynivka and are operating near Vuhledar.
Zaporizhia Front – Initiative Russia
Zaporizhia-Donetsk Border Area
Russian forces reportedly advanced in the Donetsk-Zaporizhia Oblast border area. Russian sources claimed that Russian forces advanced into central Staromayorske and Urozhaine, south of Velyka Novosilka. Reports indicate advances of 100 meters in Urozhaine and Staromayorske. While there is no visual confirmation, footage shows recent armored assaults in the Staromayorske area, suggesting possible minor advances.
Zaporizhia Line
Positional fighting continued in western Zaporizhia Oblast with no confirmed changes to the frontline. Russian forces attacked near Robotyne, Verbove, Mali Shcherbaky, and Mala Tokmachka.
Kherson (Dnipro River) Front – Initiative None
Positional fighting continued near Krynky on the east bank of Kherson Oblast, with no confirmed changes to the frontline.
Ukraine News
Russian forces launched a Shahed-136/131 drone strike against Ukraine, partially damaging energy infrastructure in Rivne Oblast. Ukrainian Air Force Commander Lieutenant General Mykola Oleshchuk reported that 14 drones were launched, with Ukrainian forces shooting down 13 over Mykolaiv, Kirovohrad, and Rivne oblasts. Falling drone debris caused the damage in Rivne Oblast.
Russian milbloggers debated reports of a Russian strike on Lviv Oblast. Some claimed a Kinzhal missile hit a military training ground in Yavoriv. However, a prominent Kremlin-affiliated milblogger expressed doubts about the strike’s occurrence. There is no confirmation of a recent strike in Lviv Oblast.
Ukraine’s Allies
Sweden announced its largest military aid package to Ukraine, worth $1.25 billion. The aid includes surveillance aircraft, air-to-air missiles, 155mm artillery ammunition, and a stock of armored vehicles to boost Ukraine’s defense capabilities.
Russia News
Russian President Vladimir Putin appointed Alexei Dyumin as Secretary of Russia’s State Council. Dyumin will address issues related to the council, which coordinates domestic and foreign policy across various government levels. He is also tasked with supporting Russia’s defense industry and military supply efforts. Some Russian commentators have favorably compared Dyumin’s capabilities to those of Soviet official Lavrentiy Beria, hinting at his potential to enhance defense production.
Russian President Vladimir Putin is preparing the Russian population for a prolonged war effort. In a May 29 meeting, he urged all Russians to “work as if on the frontline” and feel “mobilized” to achieve Russia’s goals. He often references the Great Patriotic War (World War II) to rally support. Putin’s recent appointment of Andrei Belousov as Defense Minister indicates a push to mobilize Russia’s economy for an extended conflict, potentially against NATO.
Russian Mobilization and Defense Industrial Base
Russia is expanding social benefits for its military personnel, veterans, and their families. President Vladimir Putin signed decrees to provide special cars for veterans who lost multiple limbs and allow families of deceased soldiers to collect two pensions. The Russian Ministry of Finance clarified that proposed 2024 tax changes will not affect military personnel.
Ukraine-based Frontelligence Insight confirmed reports that fighters from multiple African states are aiding Russian forces in Luhansk and Donetsk oblasts. There are also reports of African mercenaries and Russian “Africa Corps” personnel in northern Kharkiv Oblast.
Russian milbloggers criticized the Ministry of Defense for inadequate protection of military assets, despite new hangars at the Marinovka airfield in Volgograd Oblast. They noted these were funded by private donors and not part of a nationwide initiative and are outdated against current threats.
Russian opposition outlet Verstka reported that the Russian Ministry of Industry and Trade has allocated 897 million rubles (about $10 million) to develop a system for intercepting and disabling drones. The system aims to detect and intercept drones up to 50 kilograms flying at speeds up to 200 kilometers per hour. It will use two methods: shooting down drones and disabling them with special interceptors. Testing is set to begin in January 2026.
Russia’s Allies
On May 28, the Belarusian Ministry of Defense reported that the Belarusian Air Force and Air Defense Forces, along with the Russian Aerospace Forces, are conducting joint tactical flight exercises.
Russian Narratives and Propaganda
Russia has blamed Ukraine for the recent suspension of prisoner of war (POW) exchanges, accusing Ukraine of making unreasonable demands. Russian Commissioner for Human Rights Tatiana Moskalkova claimed Russia has tried to maintain dialogue with Ukraine and the Red Cross. The last POW exchange occurred in February 2024, facilitated by the UAE. Ukraine has opened a third camp for Russian POWs, citing Russia’s obstruction of exchanges and an increase in Russian deserters.
Following the last POW exchange, Russia has been accused of serious abuses against Ukrainian POWs, including executions, using them as human shields, and operating a black market to sell them to paramilitary groups, all violations of the Geneva Convention. Russia is also allegedly forcing Ukrainian POWs to fight in Ukraine. Russian Commissioner Tatiana Moskalkova blamed Ukraine for halting POW exchanges, likely to deflect from these abuses and undermine Ukrainian efforts, potentially discouraging Western support for Ukraine.
Russian officials continue to falsely claim that Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky is illegitimate. Russian State Duma Chair Vyacheslav Volodin and Kremlin Spokesperson Dmitri Peskov reiterated these claims to undermine Zelensky’s legitimacy and discourage Western support for Ukraine.
The Ukrainian Center for Countering Disinformation warned that Russian actors have launched “Project Dozor,” an information campaign to recruit saboteurs in Ukraine to gather military information and conduct sabotage.
Source Material
Institute for the Study of War – understandingwar.org