Summary of the day: The security situation in the Russian North Caucasus region remained tense following the June 23 terrorist attacks by the likely Islamic State affiliate Wilayat Kavkaz in Dagestan. Chechen leader Ramzan Kadyrov used the attacks to reinforce his image as a strongman capable of maintaining stability. In Ukraine, Russian forces made marginal advances near Kupyansk, while Russia and Ukraine exchanged 90 prisoners of war each amid reports of Russia’s continued abuse of POWs. Russia signed a gas supply deal with Iran following disagreements with China, while North Korea announced plans to send military construction forces to occupied Donetsk Oblast. Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov reiterated Russia’s demand for Ukrainian territorial concessions, and new Russian Defense Minister Andrei Belousov used his first call with US Secretary of Defense Lloyd Austin to threaten the US over its support for Ukraine. Meanwhile, Ukraine continues to face a critical shortage of air defense missiles, hindering its ability to protect infrastructure from Russian strikes.
What Can I Do To Help Ukraine? This is a question I receive all the time. We at Transform Ukraine are building longer-term housing for internally displaced Ukrainians. Visit Rebuild Ukraine for how you can assist in housing a Ukrainian family displaced by the war.
Peace Talks
Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov emphasized that Russia will only engage in dialogue with Europe if it recognizes the “territorial realities” enshrined in the Russian Constitution, which considers the administrative boundaries of Kherson, Zaporizhia, Donetsk, and Luhansk oblasts as Russian territory. Lavrov’s comments echo Putin’s June 14 demands for Ukraine to withdraw from these oblasts before considering “peace negotiations.” Russia remains uninterested in genuine negotiations and only invokes “peace plans” to pressure Ukraine’s partners into encouraging preemptive territorial concessions. Lavrov’s mention of negotiations with “Europe” rather than Ukraine furthers the Kremlin’s false narrative that there are no legitimate Ukrainian authorities to negotiate with, undermining Ukraine’s sovereignty.
Situation On The Land, Sea, and Air in Ukraine
Russia and Ukraine exchanged 90 prisoners of war (POWs) each on June 25, in the 53rd such exchange during the war, mediated by the United Arab Emirates. The Russian Ministry of Defense claimed that the returned Russian POWs were in “mortal danger” while in Ukrainian custody. However, the UN Office of the High Commissioner for Human Rights (OHCHR) reported interviewing over 600 released Ukrainian civilians and POWs since 2022, all of whom experienced or witnessed torture, severe beatings, prolonged stress positions, and being mauled by dogs while in Russian captivity. The OHCHR also received accounts of torture in “transitory” POW camps in occupied Ukraine, though not in “official” internment camps. ISW has previously reported on evidence of Russian servicemen abusing and executing Ukrainian POWs, with apparent permission from Russian military command.
Kharkiv Front – Initiative None
Fighting continued in northern Kharkiv Oblast, but no confirmed changes to the frontline were reported. Ukrainian forces are reportedly “blocking” a small group of Russian troops in the Vovchansk Aggregate Plant amid heavy close-combat fighting in Vovchansk. Russian and Ukrainian forces also reported fighting around Vovchansk, Tykhe, and Hlyboke. Russian forces launched 11 guided glide bombs at Lyptsi in the afternoon.
Luhansk Front – Initiative Russia
Russian forces recently advanced northeast of Kupyansk as they continued offensive operations along the Kupyansk-Svatove-Kreminna line. Geolocated footage shows Russian forces advancing along a windbreak northeast of Petropavlivka, with Russian milbloggers claiming an advance of up to one kilometer in the area. Russian sources also claimed that Russian forces entered eastern Stelmakhivka, although this remains unconfirmed. Offensive operations continued in various locations near Kupyansk, Svatove, and Kreminna. A Ukrainian brigade spokesperson stated that Russian forces are conducting attacks exclusively with squad-sized infantry groups without armored vehicle support, with a second squad-sized group following an initial assault group to potentially secure captured positions.
Donetsk Front – Initiative Russia
Siversk
Russian forces continued ground attacks near Siversk but did not make any confirmed advances. Russian milbloggers claimed that Russian forces have seized two-thirds of Rozdolivka, southeast of Siversk, but this remains visually unconfirmed. Attacks also continued northeast, east, and southeast of Siversk, with elements of Russian forces reportedly operating near Vyimka.
Chasiv Yar
Russian forces continued attacks near Chasiv Yar but did not make any confirmed advances. The attacks focused on areas within and east of Chasiv Yar, as well as southeast near Klishchiivka and Andriivka. A Ukrainian brigade spokesperson reported that Russian forces are using fewer armored combat vehicles and tube artillery in the area, relying mainly on infantry groups and mortar shelling. The Washington Post noted that Russian assaults are disrupting Ukrainian troop rotations and supply deliveries near Chasiv Yar.
Toretsk
Russian forces reportedly advanced near Toretsk amid continued fighting in the area. Russian milbloggers claimed that Russian forces advanced between 800 meters and two kilometers from Mayorske to Druzhba, continued advancing towards Niu York from the south, and advanced 500 meters in Pivnichne. These claims remain unconfirmed. A milblogger suggested that Russian forces took advantage of a Ukrainian troop rotation to achieve these advances. Russian forces also attacked near Zalizne and Dachne.
Avdiivka
Russian forces have not made any recently confirmed advances west of Avdiivka, despite ongoing fighting in the area. Russian milbloggers claimed advances of 500-900 meters near Novooleksandrivka, Vozdvyzhenka, Sokil, and the Karlivske Reservoir, but these claims remain unconfirmed. Russian forces continued attacks in various locations northwest, west, and southwest of Avdiivka. A Ukrainian brigade spokesperson stated that Russian forces are conducting squad-sized infantry attacks equipped with electronic warfare devices that limit Ukrainian drone operations. Elements of the Russian Somalia Battalion and “Vega” Spetsnaz Detachment are reportedly fighting in the Avdiivka area.
Southwest of Donetsk City
Russian forces continued ground attacks west and southwest of Donetsk City, but no confirmed frontline changes were reported. Russian milbloggers claimed advances within Krasnohorivka and south of Novomykhailivka towards the T0524 highway, but these claims remain unverified. Attacks also continued near Heorhiivka, Kostyantynivka, and Paraskoviivka. Russian forces are reportedly fighting near Kostyantynivka.
Zaporizhia Front – Initiative Russia
Zaporizhia-Donetsk Border Area
Russian forces continued attacks near Urozhaine and Staromayorske in the Donetsk-Zaporizhia Oblast border area, but no changes to the frontline were reported. Russian forces are reportedly striking targets in Urozhaine.
Zaporizhia Line
Russian forces continued ground attacks in western Zaporizhia Oblast, but no confirmed changes to the frontline were reported. Russian milbloggers claimed marginal advances northwest of Robotyne and 400 meters near Mala Tokmachka over the past two days, but these claims remain visually unconfirmed. Assaults continued near Robotyne, Mala Tokmachka, and northeast of Verbove. Russian forces are reportedly operating north of Robotyne in the Orikhiv direction.
Kherson (Dnipro River) Front – Initiative None
Russian forces continued ground attacks near Krynky and on the Dnipro River islands in the east (left) bank of Kherson Oblast, but no confirmed frontline changes were reported. Ukrainian forces have destroyed 10 Russian boats in southern Ukraine over the past two days, according to a Ukrainian Naval spokesperson. A Russian milblogger claimed that Russian forces have intensified their glide bomb strikes against Ukrainian positions in the west (right) bank of Kherson Oblast over the last two weeks.
Ukraine News
Russian forces launched an Iskander-M ballistic missile and a Kh-59 cruise missile at southern Ukraine. The Kh-59 hit an empty area in Mykolaiv Oblast, and the Iskander-M struck administrative infrastructure in Odesa Oblast.
Ukraine faces a critical shortage of air defense missiles, limiting its ability to protect critical infrastructure from Russian attacks. According to DTEK Executive Director Dmytro Sakharuk, for every interceptor missile Ukraine has, Russia has five to six missiles to launch. Sakharuk noted that Ukraine would need at least 12 air defense missiles to adequately protect against 10 attacking Russian missiles. This shortage makes it impossible for Ukraine to cover repaired or repairing energy grid units. Russia has exploited these air defense shortages, caused by insufficient Western-provided systems, to maximize damage to Ukraine’s energy capacity throughout 2024.
Ukrainian Mobilization and Defense Industrial Base
Ukraine is advancing its Unmanned Systems Forces and drone capabilities. On June 25, President Zelensky established the Unmanned Systems Forces as a separate branch of the military. Ukraine is improving its Magura V5 naval drones, which can now launch R-73 air-to-air missiles. Brigadier General Lukashevych stated that Ukraine’s Security Service, Navy, and GUR are working together to enhance naval drones, aiming to create squads of 10-20 drones with diverse functions to replicate a warship’s capabilities. The SeaBaby drone can carry large payloads and lay 400-pound mines. Deputy Defense Minister Klimenkov reported that Ukraine spent 2.5 billion hryvnias ($61.69 million) on Mavic drones in 2024.
The Ukrainian government is addressing force generation challenges. Deputy Defense Minister Kateryna Chernohorenko announced that over 645,000 military registration documents were processed via the new “Reserve+” app in the first two days. Over 7,000 Ukrainians, including 700 women, have applied for military service since mid-February. The Ministry of Defense opened its 25th recruiting center in Kropyvnytskyi. Finnish Defense Minister Antti Haakainen stated that Finland has trained thousands of Ukrainian servicemen in Finland and through the UK’s Operation Interflex.
Ukraine’s Allies
Ukraine’s Western allies continue their support. Lithuanian President Nauseda announced that Lithuania will allocate at least 0.25% of its GDP to Ukraine’s security. Spain provided Ukraine with Patriot missiles, Leopard tanks, various ammunition, anti-drone systems, EW systems, and remote-control turrets. Denmark announced its 19th aid package worth $171.8 million, including F-16 training support. Ukraine signed a cooperation memorandum with Romania to boost joint defense production and maintenance programs. French company Thales will deliver EW, communications, air defense, and radar systems and co-develop ammunition-carrying drones. Northrop Grumman plans to produce medium caliber and tank ammunition in Ukraine. Rheinmetall will supply “Frankenstein” air defense tanks. Italy is preparing to send Storm Shadow missiles and a SAMP/T air defense system.
Life in Russian-Occupied Ukraine
Russian officials accused Ukrainian forces of destroying the radiation control post of the Russian-occupied Zaporizhzhia Nuclear Power Plant (ZNPP) in Velyka Znamyanka. However, they claimed there is no risk of excess background radiation to local areas. Ukrainian officials have not yet commented on the alleged strike.
Russia News
Russian sources, including Kremlin-affiliated milbloggers and opposition media, reported on June 25 that two armed men fired on police in Makhachkala, Dagestan, raising fears of further terrorist attacks in the North Caucasus following the June 23 attacks by the likely Islamic State affiliate Wilayat Kavkaz. Police cordoned off areas in central Makhachkala, but Dagestan’s Ministry of Internal Affairs later stated that the reports were false and there were no violations of public order. The widespread misreporting and heavy police response suggest heightened expectations of further attacks in the region.
The Kremlin is trying to maintain an image of stability and unity following the Dagestan terror attack but is likely failing to reassure the public about preventing further attacks. The attack has heightened fears of religious extremism and exacerbated tensions related to migration, racism, and xenophobia in Russia. The Kremlin struggles to balance appealing to anti-migrant ultranationalists, relying on migrants for the war effort, and addressing labor shortages. A Russian source claimed that Dagestan’s force generation efforts drove some practitioners from a government-friendly mosque to a more radical one with alleged Wahhabi ties. Russian force generation and ultranationalist rhetoric risk alienating minority and Muslim-majority communities, which Salafi-Jihadi groups can exploit for recruitment.
Chechen leader Ramzan Kadyrov used the June 23 Dagestan terrorist attacks to reinforce his image as a ruthless strongman capable of maintaining stability in the North Caucasus and preventing religious extremism. In a meeting with Chechen law enforcement, Kadyrov called for vigilance and threatened to kill the relatives of those suspected of Wahhabism in a “blood feud.” He invoked the memory of the Chechen wars, claiming that his father and Putin prevented “international” efforts to use Chechnya to destroy Russia. Kadyrov also suggested that outside actors aided the Dagestan attackers, supporting Kremlin efforts to tie the attacks to the war in Ukraine while downplaying the threat of homegrown religious extremism in the region.
Russia’s Gazprom and the National Iranian Gas Company signed a memorandum on June 26 regarding the supply of Russian gas to Iran, following reported disagreements between Russia and China on Russian gas supplies. Gazprom Head Alexey Miller met with Iranian officials to discuss the deal and other energy cooperation areas, though no details were provided. The agreement comes after reports of Russia and China disagreeing on economic issues, including the Power of Siberia 2 gas pipeline, likely aimed at extracting concessions from Russia given Gazprom’s recent economic struggles. Iran may benefit from the deal to reduce reliance on existing gas swap deals with Azerbaijan and Turkmenistan and mitigate summer electricity shortages that could fuel domestic unrest.
Russian Mobilization and Defense Industrial Base
RUSI’s June 26 report highlights a significant rise in Russia’s military production in 2023. Russia plans to manufacture 1.325 million 152mm and 800,000 122mm artillery shells in 2024, up from 1 million and 250,000 shells in 2023. Production of Grad MLRS ammunition is set to increase from 33,000 rounds in 2023 to 500,000 in 2024, and Uragan MLRS ammunition from 2,800 to 17,000 rounds. Russia also tripled its Iskander-M missile production and produced 420 Kh-101 cruise missiles by 2023. Joint Russian-Iranian efforts now produce over 250 Shahed-136 drones monthly. Russia plans to produce 1,500 tanks and 3,000 other armored vehicles in 2024, mostly refurbished. Increased production relies on lower-quality equipment and imported materials, with costs up 30% due to sanctions.
Russian regional administrations continue to support the MoD’s crypto-mobilization campaign. A Russian milblogger shared an ad for volunteer recruitment through the “Stal” training center in Nizhny Novgorod. The Nizhny Novgorod administration will oversee the frontline units that these volunteers join. The ad offers a 195,000-ruble federal payment, a 500,000-ruble regional payment, and a 305,000 ruble gubernatorial payment for contracts signed in Nizhny Novgorod.
Russia’s Allies
North Korea will reportedly send military engineering forces to occupied Donetsk Oblast as early as July 2024 to help rebuild infrastructure. South Korean TV network TV Chosun estimated that North Korea could earn up to $115 million per year from Russia by sending three or four engineering brigades. The Pentagon stated it will monitor the situation and suggested that North Korea should reconsider sending its forces to be “cannon fodder” in Russia’s invasion of Ukraine. Although Russia and North Korea recently signed a strategic partnership agreement, direct North Korean engineering support can free up Russian combat power for frontline operations and aid Russian efforts to expand military infrastructure in occupied Ukraine.
Russian Narrative and Propaganda
In his first phone call with US Secretary of Defense Lloyd Austin, new Russian Defense Minister Andrei Belousov reiterated standard Russian threats to coerce the US into reducing support for Ukraine. Belousov warned of the “danger of further escalation” if the US continues providing weapons to Ukraine, consistent with previous Russian efforts to use vague escalation threats to discourage Western military assistance. Former Defense Minister Sergei Shoigu made similar threats to French and NATO defense ministers in the past. These threats are part of Russia’s broader reflexive control campaign to influence Western decision-making, despite Russia not having escalated militarily in response to any US or Western weapons provisions to Ukraine thus far.
Russian officials are dismissing the ICC’s arrest warrants for former Defense Minister Sergei Shoigu and Chief of the General Staff Valery Gerasimov. Kremlin Spokesperson Dmitry Peskov called the warrants “absurd”. Constitutional Court President Valery Zorkin labeled them as “information noise without legal basis.” A Russian milblogger accused the ICC of violating the law. This response mirrors reactions to the 2023 ICC warrants against President Putin and Children’s Rights Commissioner Maria Lvova-Belova for deporting Ukrainian children.
Source Material
Institute for the Study of War – understandingwar.org