Summary of the day: In a strategic day of developments, Russian and Ukrainian forces exchanged 95 prisoners each, marking a significant but temporary humanitarian accord amidst ongoing hostilities. Simultaneously, Russian officials, including Dmitry Medvedev, reiterated narratives threatening the dissolution of Ukrainian statehood by 2034, aimed at steeling the Russian public for a prolonged conflict. On the ground, Ukrainian troops recaptured strategic positions south of Toretsk, countering recent Russian advances in areas north of Kharkiv City and near Kupyansk, Svatove, Avdiivka, and Vuhledar. Amidst these military engagements, Russia continues to project an image of international normalcy and strength, bolstering ties with India and promoting narratives of weakening Western support, all while internal tensions rise over migration policies and the financial strains of an ongoing mobilization campaign.
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Beyond Ukraine – March Towards World War
Russia and India are further strengthening their bilateral ties, marked by significant arms and energy deals. Recent interactions include India’s import of Russian military hardware, such as the anticipated delivery of two stealth frigates by 2025 and requests to expedite the delivery of S-400 air defense systems to meet the needs of the Indian Air Force. Additionally, following Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s visit to Russia, India has engaged in negotiations for a long-term oil import agreement with Russia. This growing partnership occurs despite diplomatic tensions, highlighted by India summoning the Ukrainian Ambassador over President Zelensky’s criticisms of Modi’s visit to Russia.
In a collaborative effort, the Russian and Belarusian foreign ministries released a report accusing Belgium of human rights violations, aimed at shifting focus from Russia’s actions in Ukraine. This report is part of a broader strategy that includes similar accusations against Canada, Switzerland, and Australia.
Peace Talks
Russian state media have escalated their rhetoric about Ukraine’s future, editorializing remarks made by Dmitry Medvedev, Deputy Chairperson of the Russian Security Council, suggesting that Ukraine will not exist by 2034. In an interview, Medvedev inferred that Ukraine’s chances of joining NATO are null due to potential changes in the alliance’s leadership and hinted at the disappearance of Ukraine, referencing it derisively as “country 404.” Russian outlets like TASS have sensationalized these comments, presenting them as an admission of Ukraine’s impending dissolution, reinforcing a narrative that aligns with the Kremlin’s long-term military objectives.
This portrayal in Russian media is designed to set societal expectations for a conflict expected to last another decade, culminating in what Russia anticipates as a definitive victory over Ukraine. Such messaging underscores the Kremlin’s stance that it is not genuinely open to peace negotiations that do not align with its terms, which involve the complete subjugation or eradication of Ukrainian statehood. This approach starkly conflicts with any potential diplomatic efforts, pushing the narrative that any negotiations with the West or Ukraine would be futile under current Russian conditions, setting a grim tone for the continued conflict.
Russian officials, including Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov, are using diplomatic meetings to suggest that Russia is normalizing relations with Western countries despite ongoing tensions. In recent interactions, including a notable meeting with Hungarian Foreign Minister Peter Szijjarto at the UN, Lavrov promoted narratives of continued partnership with Hungary and criticized Ukraine’s treatment of national minorities. Despite attempts by Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orban to position Hungary as a mediator in the Ukraine conflict, European Union officials have explicitly stated that Orban does not represent the EU, with the European Parliament condemning his diplomatic overtures toward Russia.
Situation On The Land, Sea, and Air in Ukraine
Russia and Ukraine conducted a prisoner of war exchange, with each side releasing 95 POWs in a swap facilitated by the United Arab Emirates. Reports following the exchange have highlighted allegations of abuse and torture faced by Ukrainian POWs during their captivity in Russia, with one returning Ukrainian serviceman reporting severe health issues resulting from mistreatment.
Kharkiv Front – Initiative None
Video footage shows Ukrainian forces striking a Russian-occupied building in eastern Sotnytskyi Kozachok, northwest of Kharkiv City. There have been no recent sightings of Russian troops in the area, suggesting they may not have a lasting presence there.
Russian forces have made incremental advances north of Kharkiv City, particularly around the area of Hlyboke, as they continue to engage Ukrainian positions. Recent footage and reports confirm ongoing military actions in this region, including near Vovchansk and Tykhe. Kremlin spokesperson Dmitry Peskov indicated that these operations are part of an effort to establish a “security zone” in Kharkiv Oblast, aimed at protecting Russian border areas.
Luhansk Front – Initiative Russia
Russian forces have made slight advances in the areas surrounding Kupyansk, Svatove, and Kreminna, with recent military actions reported along the Kupyansk-Svatove-Kreminna line. Geolocated footage confirms minor progress in forest areas near Kyslivka and Dzherelne. Additionally, Russian milbloggers report advances in multiple locations including Berestove and Novoselivske near Kupyansk, as well as Makiivka and Chervonopopivka near Svatove. Ukrainian forces reportedly faced off Russian assaults in several key areas, including Synkivka and Stelmakhivka.
Donetsk Front – Initiative Russia
Siversk
Russian forces made limited tactical advancements in the Siversk area, particularly near Pereizne. Russian forces have reportedly moved to the southern outskirts of Pereizne and are securing positions there, although there is no visual confirmation of their presence. Additionally, the Ukrainian General Staff notes Russian ground assaults in several locations east and southeast of Siversk, including Verkhnokamyanske and Spirne.
Chasiv Yar
Russian forces have reportedly made advances near Chasiv Yar, though there is no visual proof of these movements. Russian milbloggers suggest that the troops have broken through near Kalynivka and possibly crossed the Siverskyi Donets-Donbas canal, though these claims remain unverified. Ukrainian defense reports indicate that Russian assaults in the area are primarily infantry-led, with increasing use of non-traditional transport like golf carts and motorcycles due to losses of armored vehicles.
Toretsk
Ukrainian forces successfully regained positions south of Toretsk, amidst ongoing Russian offensives in the area. Geolocated footage confirmed the recovery of territory along a windbreak southeast of Niu-York, near Toretsk. Reports from both Russian and Ukrainian sources indicate continued combat near Toretsk, including in Niu-York, Pivnichne to the southeast, and Druzhba to the east. However, a claim by a Russian milblogger about Russian advances up to Kooperatyvna Street in Niu-York has not been visually verified.
Avdiivka
Russian forces have made tactical advances northwest of Avdiivka, as evidenced by geolocated footage showing movement to a windbreak north of Novooleksandrivka. Russian milbloggers report additional gains in Lozuvatske and fields north of the area, though these claims lack visual verification. They also allege advances in central Novoselivka Persha, with progress reported within the settlement. Ongoing heavy combat is reported in several locations around Avdiivka, including Kalynove to the north, Prohres and Vozdvyzhenka to the northwest, and Umanske and Yasnobrodivka to the west.
Southwest of Donetsk City
Russian forces conducted limited offensive operations west and southwest of Donetsk City without making any significant advances. Continued combat was reported in the areas west of Donetsk City, particularly in Krasnohorivka and Heorhiivka, and to the southwest near Kostyantynivka and Paraskoviivka.
Russian forces have recently advanced towards a crucial ground line of communication in the Vuhledar area, southwest of Donetsk City, although the gains were not within the last 24 hours. Early July footage shows a Russian armored vehicle advancing near the T0524 Marinka-Vuhledar route, close to Vodyane and northeast of Vuhledar. This movement, supported by satellite imagery from July 14 showing destroyed vehicles along the same route, indicates Russian control over new positions in this area. Discussions of the footage by Russian milbloggers started only on July 17, suggesting delayed reporting in Russian media. Concurrently, the Ukrainian General Staff reported Russian ground attacks near Kostyantynivka and Vodyane on the same day, aligning with Russian strategic objectives to disrupt Ukrainian supply routes in the region.
Zaporizhia Front – Initiative Russia
Zaporizhia-Donetsk Border Area
There was no significant activity reported in the Donetsk-Zaporizhia Oblast border area
Zaporizhia Line
Positional fighting occurred in western Zaporizhia Oblast without any changes to the frontline. The clashes involved Russian and Ukrainian forces near Robotyne, as well as in the areas northeast near Mala Tokmachka and northwest near Novoandriivka. Additionally, a Russian milblogger reported a decrease in Ukrainian drone activity in the region following a Russian strike on Ukrainian drone operators near Mala Tokmachka.
Kherson (Dnipro River) Front – Initiative None
Russian sources reported that Ukrainian forces have pulled back from positions in Krynky on the east bank of Kherson Oblast, but this has not been independently confirmed. Meanwhile, the Ukrainian General Staff noted ongoing positional fighting in the same region, particularly near Kozachi Laheri. Additionally, reports indicated continuing skirmishes involving small arms on islands in the Dnipro River Delta.
Ukraine News
Russian forces launched missile strikes on various targets across Ukraine. Ukrainian military sources reported a strike in Kherson Oblast using an Iskander-M ballistic missile and additional strikes in Odesa Oblast with an unspecified number of missiles. Russian media also circulated footage claiming a strike on a Ukrainian training ground near Peresichne in Kharkiv Oblast, using an Iskander missile.
Russia News
Kremlin officials are navigating tensions between appealing to Russian ultranationalists’ anti-migrant sentiments and implementing broader migration policies to address labor shortages. In a recent review by the Russian Investigative Committee, it was highlighted that crimes associated with migrants have risen by up to 55% in the first half of 2024, a situation exacerbated by alleged corruption in law enforcement and business sectors facilitating illegal migration. These crime statistics are being used by ultranationalists to bolster their stance against migration, despite the Kremlin’s contradictory reliance on migrants for economic and military needs, including supplementing forces in the Ukraine conflict. This complex situation reflects the Kremlin’s struggle to balance nationalist xenophobia with practical policy needs.
Russian Mobilization and Defense Industrial Base
Russia’s ongoing military efforts in Ukraine are substantially increasing the nation’s financial burden. According to the Russia-focused analytical platform Re:Russia, from July 2023 to June 2024, the Russian government spent between 2.75 to 3 trillion rubles ($31 billion to $33 billion) on compensations to military personnel, including payments for those wounded and families of the deceased. This expenditure constitutes about 1.5 percent of Russia’s GDP and 7.5 to 8.2 percent of the 2024 federal budget. The breakdown includes 1.55 to 1.8 trillion rubles ($17.5 billion to $20 billion) for personnel payments and an additional 1.2 trillion rubles ($13.5 billion) for injuries and fatalities.
Russian volunteers are supporting their military efforts in Ukraine by supplying domestically produced quadcopter drones. Alexander Panichev, leader of the “Kulibin Club” within President Vladimir Putin’s People’s Front coalition, announced on July 16 that Russian versions of commercial drones like Autel, DJI, and EVR have been successfully tested. He confirmed that 160 of these drones will soon be delivered to Russian forces in Ukraine.
Russia’s Allies
Russian strike drones targeting Ukraine have repeatedly entered Belarusian airspace without apparent coordination with Belarusian forces. Reports from Ukrainian and Belarusian sources noted drone incursions on multiple dates in July. The Belarusian Hajun Project reported that Belarusian military aircraft, including a Mi-24 helicopter and a Su-30 fighter, were deployed to intercept these drones. One such drone crashed and exploded in Gomel Oblast, Belarus. Despite an integrated air defense system with Russia since 2016, these incidents suggest a lack of effective communication and coordination between Russian and Belarusian forces regarding drone operations in Belarusian airspace.
Russian Narrative and Propaganda
Russian Telegram channels are reportedly spreading false claims about Ukrainian forces using chemical weapons in Donetsk and Kherson to undermine international support for Ukraine. Russia’s representative to the OPCW has echoed these accusations, attributing them to alleged Ukrainian military setbacks.
Russian sources are actively trying to stir anti-government and anti-military feelings in Ukraine. On July 17, Russian milbloggers circulated footage allegedly showing arson attacks on vehicles belonging to Ukrainian recruitment officials, particularly in Odesa. Additionally, reports indicate that Russian darknet platforms are offering payments for sabotage activities against Ukrainian military vehicles, as part of a wider Kremlin strategy to incite unrest in Ukraine.
Source Material
Institute for the Study of War – understandingwar.org