Summary of the day: Russian Internal Affairs Minister Vladimir Kolokoltsev boasted of increased detentions and prosecutions related to illegal migration while calling for more crackdowns. Russia assumed the presidency of the UN Security Council for July, likely to use it for power projection. In troop movements, Ukrainian forces advanced near Kreminna, while Russian forces made gains near Avdiivka. North Korea switched its state TV broadcasts to Russian satellites, potentially affecting South Korea’s monitoring capabilities. Hungary took over the rotating EU Council presidency amid ongoing discussions in the Russian information space about the mistreatment of wounded Russian servicemembers in Ukraine.
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Beyond Ukraine – March Towards World War
North Korea’s state TV channel, Korean Central TV, has switched from Chinese to Russian satellites for broadcasting. This change has affected South Korea’s ability to monitor North Korean state TV, as the Russian satellite signals overlap with domestic frequencies in South Korea, making them difficult to receive. The Russian satellite used by North Korea transmits to a significantly smaller area compared to the previously used Chinese satellite, potentially limiting access in most of Asia, Europe, and Africa. While it’s unclear if this change is temporary or permanent, it suggests possible Russian assistance in North Korea’s efforts to limit information access by South Korea and Western allies.
Hungary has taken over the six-month rotating presidency of the European Union Council on July 1. This role is part of an 18-month “trio” with Spain and Belgium, which previously held the position. The trio’s program, set in July 2023, includes supporting Ukraine and addressing the consequences of Russia’s war. Hungary’s specific six-month priorities include strengthening EU defense policy, revising enlargement policy, tackling illegal migration, supporting farmers, and addressing demographic challenges in the EU.
The Russian and Belarusian foreign ministries jointly released a report accusing Western nations, including Canada and Australia, of human rights violations, labeling Canada as increasingly Russophobic. This move is seen as an attempt to shift international focus away from the Kremlin’s own human rights issues and military actions in Ukraine. Despite these accusations, Russia has not addressed allegations concerning its treatment of migrants, ethnic minorities, and repressions within its own borders and in occupied Ukraine.
Situation On The Land, Sea, and Air in Ukraine
Geolocated footage from June 30 shows Ukrainian forces attacking Russian positions in houses and a forest area just north of Zhuravka, Sumy Oblast, close to the border. It’s unclear if these Russian positions are permanent or the result of a limited cross-border raid. Any Russian offensive actions in Sumy Oblast are likely intended to divert Ukrainian forces from other critical areas of the frontline.
Ukrainian forces reportedly launched a Storm Shadow missile strike targeting occupied Crimea, with missile debris falling near Shcholkine, southeast Crimea. Additionally, explosions were reported near a Russian military unit in Flotskoe, south of Sevastopol, following the activation of Russian air defenses in the area.
Kharkiv Front – Initiative None
Russian forces continued offensive operations north and northeast of Kharkiv City near Lyptsi, Hlyboke, and Vovchansk, without confirmed frontline changes. Russian sources shared footage of a reported FAB-3000 glide bomb strike on Ukrainian positions in Slobozhansk, north of Kharkiv City.
Luhansk Front – Initiative Russia
Ukrainian forces regained positions near Kreminna, particularly in the forested area south of Kreminna and east of Terny. Russian forces advanced east of Makiivka, northwest of Kreminna. The Russian Ministry of Defense claimed to have seized Stepova Novoselivka, southeast of Kupyansk, but this is disputed and unconfirmed. Fighting continued along the Kupyansk-Svatove-Kreminna line, including near Synkivka, Berestove, Stelmakhivka, Pishchane, Hrekivka, Nevske, Makiivka, Torske, and Terny.
Donetsk Front – Initiative Russia
Siversk
Russian forces continued attacks in the Siversk direction, without confirmed frontline changes. A Russian milblogger claimed partial control of Spirne, contradicting the Russian Defense Ministry’s earlier claim of full control. Attacks occurred near Bilohorivka, Verkhnokamyanske, Ivano-Daryivka, and Vyimka.
Chasiv Yar
Russian forces continued offensive operations near Chasiv Yar, with no confirmed frontline changes. Russian sources claimed advances northeast and south of Kalynivka, and near the Siverskyi Donets-Donbas Canal, but these remain unverified. Fighting persisted near Chasiv Yar, in its eastern Novyi Microraion, and near Klishchiivka to the southeast.
Toretsk
Russian forces continued ground attacks in the Toretsk direction, without confirmed frontline changes. Attacks were reported near Toretsk, Pivnichne, Pivdenne, and Niu York.
Avdiivka
Russian forces advanced near Avdiivka. Confirmed progress was made north and south of Sokil (northwest of Avdiivka) and south of Netaylove (west of Avdiivka). The Russian Ministry of Defense claimed to have captured Novopokrovske, though this was likely achieved earlier. Unconfirmed Russian claims suggest advances into Voskhod and Yevhenivka. Fighting continued in multiple locations northwest and west of Avdiivka, including Novooleksandrivka, Vozdvyzhenka, Prohres, and Novoselivka Persha.
Southwest of Donetsk City
Russian forces continued offensive operations west and southwest of Donetsk City, with no confirmed frontline changes. Ukrainian forces repelled a Russian mechanized assault south of Novomykhailivka, destroying seven armored vehicles. Attacks continued near Krasnohorivka, Heorhiivka, Paraskoviivka, Kostyantynivka, and Vodyane.
Zaporizhia Front – Initiative Russia
Zaporizhia-Donetsk Border Area
Russian forces continued ground attacks in the Donetsk-Zaporizhia Oblast border area, with no confirmed frontline changes. Fighting occurred near Urozhaine, Staromayorske, Makarivka, and Charivne.
Zaporizhia Line
Positional engagements continued in western Zaporizhia Oblast near Robotyne, Verbove, Novodanylivka, and Mala Tokmachka. A Russian source claimed their forces are pushing Ukrainian troops from positions near Mala Tokmachka, but face challenges due to open terrain and Ukrainian drone usage. Another source reported Russian soldiers complaining about ineffective electronic warfare systems against Ukrainian drones, partly due to overheating in summer temperatures.
Kherson (Dnipro River) Front – Initiative None
Fighting continued in Kherson Oblast, eastern Ukraine, and on nearby Dnipro River Delta islands. A Russian military blogger reported that Russian troops are struggling with inadequate electronic warfare systems to counter Ukrainian drones and insufficient artillery for effective counterattacks.
Ukraine News
Russian forces launched multiple missile strikes across Ukraine. Two Iskander-K cruise missiles aimed at Kyiv were intercepted by Ukrainian defenses, although debris caused damage in Obolonskyi Raion. Overnight, civilian targets in Dnipro City were hit by Russian ballistic missiles. Additionally, reports from Ukraine indicate a Russian Iskander strike on Myrhorod Air Base in Poltava Oblast, with local reports of explosions. Ukrainian air defense also downed a Russian Kh-59/69 cruise missile over eastern Ukraine. Ukrainian military officials note an increase in evening missile attacks by Russia, potentially targeting civilian gatherings during summer evenings.
Ukraine Mobilization and Defense Industrial Base
Ukraine is actively enhancing its domestic military production and defense capabilities. Since February 2022, the Ukrainian Ministry of Defense has registered 20 models of sniper and anti-material rifles, with a third being domestically produced. From the start of 2024, nearly 480 new types of military weapons and equipment have been introduced. Additionally, Ukroboronprom, a state-owned defense enterprise, is now mass-producing drones capable of striking targets over 1,000 kilometers away. Furthermore, Ukrainian defense professionals have begun repairing German-made armored vehicles at a new maintenance center established by Rheinmetall in western Ukraine.
Ukraine is restructuring its forces to enhance domestic combat capabilities. The National Police of Ukraine is establishing three new combat brigades, totaling 8,000 members, drawn from the Department of Preventative Activities, the “Khyzhak” Patrol Police Department, and the “KORD” special police unit. Additionally, Ukrainian Ministry of Defense Spokesperson Senior Lieutenant Dmytro Lazutkin reported on June 27 that the number of mobilized service members has increased, showing improved mobilization dynamics since early 2024.
Russia News
Russia assumed the one-month rotating presidency of the UN Security Council on July 1, its first since April 2023. Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov will chair UNSC debates on July 16-17. Russia is expected to use this position to project power in the international system, as it has done historically. Recently, Russian officials have been conducting information operations to deflect responsibility for international law violations in Ukraine, likely in preparation for their UNSC presidency.
Russian Interior Minister Vladimir Kolokoltsev reported an increase in detentions and prosecutions related to illegal migration. He claimed the Ministry detected twice as many migration-related crimes and prosecuted about 25% more illegal migrants compared to 2023. Kolokoltsev noted a 7.6% decrease in serious crimes committed by foreigners in Russia but acknowledged that some foreign-committed crimes have increased interethnic tensions. He emphasized the strategic importance of combating illegal migration and called for coordinated efforts among Russian security agencies to address migration issues.
Russian milbloggers criticized Interior Minister Kolokoltsev’s report on reduced migrant crime, claiming it’s due to granting Russian citizenship to migrants rather than actual crime reduction. They suggested Kolokoltsev was contradicting Investigative Committee Head Bastrykin’s earlier claims about increasing migrant crime. Ultranationalists have consistently opposed granting citizenship to migrants, though some justify it as part of Russia’s coercive mobilization efforts for the war in Ukraine. This conflict between ultranationalist views and government policies could potentially hinder Russia’s use of passportization to generate military manpower, address labor shortages, and justify potential operations in countries with Russian-speaking populations.
Russian Mobilization and Defense Industrial Base
Reports from the Russian information space highlight concerns about the treatment of wounded and disabled Russian servicemembers in Ukraine. Russian military bloggers have claimed that commanders are forcing these servicemembers back to the frontlines, despite their conditions, to participate in highly attritional assaults. This action is reportedly due to commanders falsifying staffing levels to appear fully manned, amidst a shortage of personnel exacerbated by high losses from drone strikes, inadequate training, and poor artillery support. These claims have prompted Russian State Duma Deputy Yaroslav Nilov to announce plans to address these issues with the Ministry of Defense and the Chief Military Prosecutor’s office.
A Russian military blogger highlighted that servicemembers in the 1st Donetsk and 2nd Luhansk People’s Republic army corps, along with many Russians working near the Ukraine border, lack “combat veteran” status. This issue has been raised amid complaints about bureaucratic challenges in recognizing combat service. Following these complaints, the Russian Ministry of Defense recently awarded “combat veteran” certificates to several Wagner Group members and is expected to continue addressing these bureaucratic issues for other irregular Russian military formations.
A spokesperson from the Russian Red Line company announced to TASS that they showcased the “Vogan-9SP” at an expo in Russia. This disposable drone, designed to intercept other drones, can travel at speeds up to 200 kilometers per hour and utilizes radar and laser systems to target and lock onto its targets.
Russia’s Allies
A Russian military blogger reiterated criticisms made by a Ukrainian official against Ukraine’s Commander-in-Chief, Colonel General Oleksandr Syrskyi.
Source Material
Institute for the Study of War – understandingwar.org