Summary of the Day:
Russian Federation Council Speaker Valentina Matviyenko reinforced President Putin’s hardline stance demanding Ukraine accept pre-invasion terms despite significant territorial losses. These demands include Ukraine’s neutrality and military restrictions, mirroring conditions from the March 2022 Istanbul talks. Russian Security Council Deputy Chairperson Dmitry Medvedev announced 440,000 new military recruits for 2024, while forces reported advances near Pokrovsk, Toretsk, Vuhledar, Velyka Novosilka, and in Kursk Oblast.
Russia faces mounting economic pressures affecting both domestic policies and military operations. A Russian cargo ship, Ursa Major, sank in the Mediterranean Sea on December 23, potentially disrupting the movement of military assets between Syria and Libya. The incident occurred as Russia grapples with demographic challenges, highlighted by new maternity payment initiatives that may prove unsustainable under current economic constraints.
The United States delivered its first $1 billion loan to Ukraine generated from frozen Russian assets. This marks the initial payment of a $20 billion U.S. commitment, part of the broader G7 Extraordinary Revenue Acceleration Loans initiative aimed at providing Ukraine with $50 billion in support through 2025.
Picture of the Day:
Russian attack on a residential building in Kryvyi Rih. (Telegram / Andrii Yermak)
The Path to Peace
Russian Federation Council Speaker Valentina Matviyenko announced that while Russia is open to negotiations with Ukraine, it will not budge from its original demands made during the Istanbul talks in March 2022. These demands include making Ukraine a neutral state that cannot join NATO and limiting its military to 85,000 soldiers. The conditions mirror President Putin’s pre-invasion demands for Ukraine’s “demilitarization” and neutrality, despite Ukraine having since reclaimed significant territory. This stance follows Putin’s recent December 19 televised press conference where he maintained the same uncompromising position.
Situation On The Land, Sea, and Air in Ukraine
An Australian biology teacher, Oscar Jenkins, has been captured by Russian forces in Ukraine, as shown in a video where he appears with his hands tied and being slapped by a Russian speaker. Prime Minister Anthony Albanese confirmed the government is working through diplomatic channels, including the Australian embassy in Moscow, to secure Jenkins’ release. The Australian government has verified the video’s authenticity and is prioritizing determining Jenkins’ location and wellbeing. Officials have called on Russia to follow international humanitarian law regarding prisoners of war while providing support to Jenkins’ family.
Ukrainian Operations in the Russian Federation – Initiative Russia
Russian forces made advances in Ukraine’s Kursk Oblast with confirmed movement west of Malaya Loknya. Russian forces conducted assaults near several settlements including Novoivanovka, Viktorovka, Kruglenkoye, and Cherkasskaya Konopelka. While additional Russian advances were claimed near Nikolayevo-Darino, Leonidovo, Russkoye Porechnoye, and Kurilovka, these remain unconfirmed. Ukrainian sources report that Russia is deploying elite units in the area and that North Korean soldiers are taking casualties, with Russia allegedly concealing their involvement.
Ukrainian forces conducted drone attacks on Russian military targets inside Russia, with confirmed strikes on Millerovo Air Base in Rostov Oblast targeting a facility that supports Russian operations in eastern and southern Ukraine; Russian officials provided varying reports of intercepted drones, claiming they stopped twelve drones total (eight destroyed and four stopped by electronic warfare) in the Millerovo and Tarasov districts, while the Russian Defense Ministry separately stated they shot down nine drones over the Rostov region, as well as three drones over Rostov Oblast and one over Voronezh Oblast; although no injuries were reported, social media showed evidence of large explosions at the targeted locations.
Kharkiv Front – Initiative Russia
Russian forces attacked in the Kharkiv area claiming a minor 100-meter advance near Tykhe, though this is unconfirmed. They reportedly control parts of Starytsya while its southern section remains contested. Russian operations continued near Vysoka Yaruha and Vovchansk, with Russian forces operating in Starytsya.
The Ukrainian border city of Vovchansk has been devastated by Russian attacks, with 90% of its center destroyed. Father Igor Klymenko’s once-thriving congregation at the Myrrh Bearers Church has dwindled to just nine displaced members who now worship in Kharkiv. The church itself, which stood intact until June despite heavy bombardment, has been reduced to charred walls. The city, located just five kilometers from the Russian border, has faced particularly intense attacks since May 10, 2024. Father Klymenko, who had to abandon his previous parish in nearby Rubizhne in May, continues to minister to his scattered congregation while commemorating those lost, including parishioner Olga, who was killed by shrapnel in October 2023.
Luhansk Front – Initiative Russia
Russian forces launched a significant mechanized assault in the Kupyansk direction using a reinforced company in two waves. Ukrainian forces reported repelling the attack, destroying two tanks and damaging multiple vehicles on the east bank of the Oskil River. Russian forces continued attacks across multiple locations including Kindrashivka, Dvorichna, Petropavlivka, Kolisnykivka, Bohuslavka, and several other settlements near Svatove and Kreminna. A Ukrainian battalion commander reported destroying about 85% of Russian armored vehicles used in recent assaults.
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Donetsk Front – Initiative Russia
Siversk
Russian forces attacked near Bilohorivka in the Siversk area without making advances. The Ukrainian Border Guard reported that Russian forces are using small groups on motorcycles to attack during cloudy weather conditions.
Chasiv Yar
Russian forces attempted to advance near Chasiv Yar, though no confirmed gains were made. While Russian sources claimed advances near Hryhorivka and into northern Chasiv Yar’s Heroichna and Lermontova Streets, these claims remain unverified. Ukrainian forces reportedly control the central Refractory Plant, with Russian airborne units withdrawing from this position. Russian operations continued around Stupochky, Predtechyne, and Bila Hora.
Toretsk
Russian forces made a confirmed advance along Tsentralna Street in western Shcherbynivka near Toretsk. While Russian sources claimed additional advances in central Shcherbynivka, northern Toretsk, and western Toretsk, these claims are unverified. The Russian advance in Shcherbynivka involved a small mechanized assault. Russian forces continued operations around Toretsk, including near Dachne, Dyliivka, Druzhba, and Shcherbynivka.
Pokrovsk
Russian forces claimed advances near Pokrovsk, though these remain unverified. They reportedly captured Novoolenivka and Ukrainka, with additional claimed advances near Pishchane, Novovasylivka, Novoyeliyzavetivka, and along the Donetska rail line. Russian operations continued across multiple settlements including Vozdvyzhenka, Myrolyubivka, Promin, Sukhyi Yar, Lysivka, and several others. Russian forces are employing diverse tactics, using armored vehicles, motorcycles, and advanced drones, including EW-resistant types with fiber optic cables. They’ve also reportedly deployed North Korean remote mining systems.
Kurakhove
Russian forces made confirmed advances east of Shevchenko and northwest of Dalne near Kurakhove. While Russian sources claimed additional advances northwest of Dalne and Zorya, these remain unconfirmed. Russian operations continued around Kurakhove and nearby settlements including Petropavlivka, Sontsivka, Stari Terny, Andriivka, and Dachne.
Andriivka
Russian forces claimed advances northwest of Uspenivka near Vuhledar, though this remains unconfirmed. Russian operations continued north and northwest of Vuhledar, including near Kostiantynopil, Yantarne, Kostiantynopolske, and Rozlyv.
Velyka Novosilka
Russian forces made confirmed advances near Velyka Novosilka capturing Storozheve and Makarivka. Video evidence shows Russian forces raising a flag in northern Storozheve and conducting a mechanized assault in the center. While Russian sources claimed advances near Rozdolne and Rivnopil, these remain unverified. Russian operations continued around several settlements including Velyka Novosilka, Rozdolne, Novyi Komar, Novosilka, Novodarivka, and Storozheve. Ukrainian forces reportedly repelled a Russian mechanized assault near Novyi Komar, and Ukrainian officials denied reports of Russian forces encircling Ukrainian troops near Makarivka.
Zaporizhia Front – Initiative Russia
Russian forces attacked several settlements in western Zaporizhia focusing on areas around Robotyne, including Pyatykhatky, Lobkove, Novoandriivka, Novodanylivka, and Bilohirya. While conducting reconnaissance and training new assault groups, they made no confirmed advances. The Russian military also worked on rotating troops and restocking ammunition in the Orikhiv and Hulyaipole areas.
Kherson (Dnipro River) Front – Initiative Russia
Russian forces conducted offensive operations along the Dnipro River and its delta region, making repeated unsuccessful attempts to capture Kozatskyi Island near Nova Kakhovka, northeast of Kherson City, with Southern Command spokesperson Vladyslav Voloshyn reporting daily small-group assaults of 5-7 infantry probes targeting locations like Kozatsky Island, Velykyi Potemkin Island, and the Zabych island area; Russia’s likely objective is to establish a bridgehead on the western bank or islands to expand their firing range against Kherson city and Ukrainian coastal positions, though these actions are not preparations for a major river crossing, which would require larger, more detectable forces; while local authorities remain prepared for additional evacuations if needed, regional official Oleksandr Tolokonnikov assessed that any major Russian offensive attempt would be “fatal” for their forces in this area, which has faced constant Russian attacks since Ukraine liberated Kherson in November 2022.
Ukraine News
Russia launched a major air assault against Ukraine, sending 60 Shahed and other drones from multiple launch sites in Bryansk, Rostov, and Krasnodar regions. Ukrainian forces intercepted 36 drones across eight provinces, while 23 decoy drones caused no damage. In the attacks, a Russian ballistic missile hit Kryvyi Rih, killing one civilian and wounding 13. Drone debris damaged homes in Kyiv province, and three drones struck a farm in Krolevets, Sumy province.
Ukraine’s parliament is drafting a bill to allow male university students studying abroad to freely cross the country’s borders. This would change current martial law restrictions that prevent men aged 18-60 from leaving Ukraine, in place since Russia’s 2022 invasion. The bill, announced by committee deputy head Ruslan Horbenko on December 23, aims to help students maintain connections with their families and manage necessary documentation.
Ukraine’s central bank reports stability in the banking system as 2024 ends. The Financial Stability Report shows calmer market conditions in the second half of 2024, supported by lower interest rates on Ukrainian bonds following debt restructuring. While war remains the primary risk, the economy shows positive signs with the G7’s ERA Loan securing budget funding for 2025. Banking metrics are encouraging, with corporate and retail deposits growing, and loan portfolios expanding significantly – corporate loans up 20% and retail loans up 30% from November 2023 to 2024. The NBU expects temporary inflation pressure to ease by mid-2025 after the new harvest.
Despite ongoing challenges in Ukraine, holiday shopping is showing resilience with 65% of Ukrainians planning Christmas and New Year purchases, up from 59% in 2023, according to a new Deloitte study. The spending patterns vary by generation, with Generation X and Baby Boomers directing significant portions of their budgets to support the Armed Forces of Ukraine. Most shoppers plan to spend between UAH 1,000 to UAH 5,000 ($27-$135), with 70% allocating part of their budget to charity, particularly supporting frontline defenders. The study also shows strong support for Ukrainian-made products, with 41% planning to buy from local brands.
Bakhmut refugees gathered in Kyiv for a holiday concert organized by the exiled city administration. Among them was Anna Holubtsova, who remains hopeful about returning to her hometown despite its devastation by Russian forces in 2023. However, with Ukraine’s army struggling and concerns about potential US policy changes under president-elect Trump, many refugees face uncertainty about ever returning home. Recent polls show declining public support for fighting to reclaim all territories, with 53.2% now supporting continued fighting compared to 76.2% in 2023. The concert provided a brief respite for displaced residents like Natalya Zyzyaeva, who lost her home and witnessed neighbors killed during the conflict. The city, once home to 70,000 people, now lies in ruins, with satellite images showing widespread destruction.
A controversy has erupted in Ukraine over comments made by Professor Vasylenko about potential relationships between Ukrainian women and foreign peacekeepers. Vasylenko compared a possible post-war situation to World War II, when German soldiers fathered children with local women. His remarks sparked immediate backlash, with university students accusing him of sexism and holding pro-Russian views. They demanded his dismissal and declared a boycott of the institute’s administration. Ukraine’s Human Rights Commissioner Dmitro Lubinets called for an investigation by educational authorities and the SBU. While Vasylenko later attempted to explain his comments as being based on historical patterns and demographic concerns, the controversy has continued to escalate.
Innocent Victims Of War
The casualty count of civilians in the past 24 hours: (Russian War Crimes)
DEATHS: 3 INJURIES: 20+
A Russian ballistic missile struck a four-story residential building in Kryvyi Rih on Christmas Eve, killing one person and injuring at least 15 others, according to Dnipropetrovsk Oblast Governor Serhii Lysak. Two people were rescued from the rubble, and ten victims were hospitalized, including four in serious condition – a 78-year-old man and three women aged 72, 65, and 42. Emergency services continue working at the scene, while Ukrainian officials condemned the holiday attack on civilians, with Ombudsman Dmytro Lubinets noting that “while the rest of the world celebrates Christmas, Ukrainians continue to suffer from endless Russian attacks.”
The Russian military attacked 38 settlements in Kherson Oblast, including the city of Kherson, killing one person and wounding two others.
Russian attacks in Donetsk Oblast resulted in one death in Kostiantynivka and injuries in both Pokrovsk and Siversk.
Russian forces attacked the village of Dvorichna in Kharkiv Oblast’s Kupiansk district, hospitalizing a 66-year-old man.
Ukraine’s Allies
The United States provided Ukraine with its first $1 billion loan generated from profits of frozen Russian assets. This is part of a larger $20 billion U.S. allocation from December 10, which itself is part of the G7’s broader initiative to provide Ukraine with $50 billion in support through 2025 using profits from frozen Russian assets.
The EU plans to produce two million artillery shells in 2025, according to new EU Defense Commissioner Andrius Kubilius. Currently, only 20-25% of EU-supplied weapons are made within the bloc. Kubilius explained that increased production requires long-term government contracts, which are currently lacking. While EU budget funds cannot directly buy weapons for Ukraine, other sources like the European Peace Facility or frozen Russian assets can be used. Ukraine will receive about 30 billion euros from the EU in 2025, with flexibility on defense spending allocation. The EU Council recently urged member states to accelerate military aid to Ukraine, particularly air defense systems, ammunition, and missiles.
Italy’s cabinet has extended military aid to Ukraine through 2025, approving continued delivery of equipment and materials. Under Prime Minister Giorgia Meloni’s leadership, Italy has provided 10 military aid packages to Ukraine since Russia’s 2022 invasion, including French-Italian SAMP/T air defense systems. As this year’s G7 president, Italy has helped coordinate international support for Ukraine, including a proposed $50 billion loan using frozen Russian assets.
Life in Russian Occupied Ukraine
Russian occupation authorities in Kherson Oblast announced the formation of five new Cossack societies with about 110 members. These groups will work with Russian law enforcement to patrol occupied areas, likely as part of efforts to strengthen Russian control in occupied Ukrainian territories.
A car explosion in occupied Berdiansk, Zaporizhzhia Oblast, wounded Vasily Nechet (also known as Vasyl Nechet), the Russian-installed head of the city council and former cultural center director who joined Putin’s United Russia party and helped establish Russian control; he was hospitalized after his car exploded in a residential yard, though his current condition remains unknown.
President Zelensky reported that Russian forces kidnapped 48 children under age three during their withdrawal from Kherson City in 2022, relocating them to occupied Crimea and Russia, with investigators locating seven other Ukrainian children now living in Krasnodar Krai and occupied Crimea; among the thousands of Ukrainian children deported from occupied territories was Oleksandr (Alexander) Yakushchenko, originally from Tokarivka village near Kherson, who was taken to Russia by his former caretaker Lidia Sharvarly, who collaborated with Russian authorities, and placed with a foster family in Krasnodar Krai, where he died in January 2024, with officials ruling it a suicide eight months after his placement; his biological mother in Ukraine’s Khmelnytskyi Oblast questions the suicide ruling, noting he had expressed plans to visit her a month before his death, while reports suggest his foster family may have withheld his ID to prevent his return to Ukraine; his sister Khrystyna remains with a different foster family after also being deported to Russia, with Ukrainian authorities estimating that Russia has deported between 20,000 and 300,000 Ukrainian children since the invasion began.
Russian President Vladimir Putin issued a decree banning the registration of businesses linked to citizens from countries “unfriendly” to Russia in occupied Ukrainian territories (Donetsk, Luhansk, Kherson, and Zaporizhia) until 2026.
Russia News
The Kremlin faces challenges in funding its demographic policies, as highlighted by Nizhny Novgorod Oblast’s plan to provide one million rubles ($10,000) per child starting in 2025. While this initiative aims to boost birth rates, Russia’s economic struggles from the Ukraine war, international sanctions, and labor shortages may make such programs unsustainable. The Russian Central Bank warned that lowering interest rates amid current supply shortages would be “dangerous,” and may raise rates beyond the current 21 percent. This contrasts with President Putin’s recent claims of economic stability during his December 19 press conference, where he criticized the Central Bank’s handling of interest rates.
A Russian cargo ship, Ursa Major, sank in the Mediterranean Sea on December 23 following an engine room explosion. While Oboronlogistika, the Russian Defense Ministry’s logistics company, claimed the ship was carrying cranes and hatch covers from St. Petersburg to Vladivostok, the ship’s captain reported it was carrying empty containers. Another Russian vessel, Sparta, which Ukraine’s intelligence claims was involved in evacuating Russian military assets from Syria, assisted the sinking ship. The incident may delay Russia’s reported efforts to move military equipment from Syria to Libya.
Russian War Losses (Today/Total)
| Troops +1600
779320 |
Tanks +4
9628 |
Artillery +10
21333 |
Arm. Veh. +8
19923 |
Aircraft
369 |
Heli
329 |
Ships
28 |
Russia Mobilization and Defense Industrial Base
Russian officials reported significant military recruitment numbers for 2024, with Security Council Deputy Chair Medvedev claiming 440,000 new contracts and Defense Minister Belousov citing 427,000. These figures likely include both Russian citizens and Ukrainians from occupied territories who may have been pressured into military service.
A Russian military officer, Captain Vladislav Golovin, who participated in the siege of Mariupol in 2022, has been appointed to lead the Yunarmiya youth military movement. Golovin, a graduate of the Kremlin’s “Time of Heroes” program, joins other veterans being placed in leadership roles to promote military education among Russian youth. The appointment reflects the Kremlin’s increasing efforts to militarize young people in Russia and occupied Ukrainian territories.
The Kazan National Research Technical University is launching “Bars,” a new drone research and production facility funded by 2.5 billion rubles ($25 million) in federal and regional money. The complex will include facilities for drone training, research, testing, production, and flight tracking in Tatarstan.
Russia’s Allies
Belarusian officials reported significant increases in trade with Russia in 2024. Trade through the Belarusian Universal Commodity Exchange grew by 9.5 times, while exports to Moscow Oblast increased by 15% compared to 2023, primarily consisting of industrial products like vehicles, railway equipment, and electronic components.
Source Material
Institute for the Study of War – understandingwar.org
The Kyiv Independent – kyivindependent.com
Kyiv Post – kyivpost.com