Summary of the Day:
Russian forces advanced near Pokrovsk and Velyka Novosilka amid significant developments both in Ukraine and Syria. Russia continues to face mounting costs in its war effort, with Defense Secretary Lloyd Austin reporting expenses exceeding $200 billion and casualties reaching 700,000 since February 2022, with current losses averaging 1,000 soldiers daily. Russia’s National Welfare Fund has dropped from $140 billion to $53.8 billion, forcing increased reliance on Chinese yuan and gold sales.
President Putin promoted Chechen Akhmat Spetsnaz Commander Apty Alaudinov to lieutenant general and Deputy Defense Minister Yunus-Bek Yevkurov to army general, while simultaneously replacing Kursk Oblast Governor Alexei Smirnov and arresting former Deputy Director Igor Grabin over defensive failures against Ukrainian incursions. These actions suggest an effort to shield military leadership from criticism while scapegoating local officials.
In Syria, Russia faces uncertainty over its military presence, withdrawing all naval vessels from Port Tartus to positions eight kilometers offshore. Former Syrian President Bashar al Assad has fled to Moscow, though his asylum status remains unconfirmed. The Syrian opposition now controls Latakia Governorate and Tartus City, though they claim they won’t target Russian military installations.
The Russian government claims to have returned remains from the January 24 Il-76 military aircraft crash in Belgorod Oblast, which allegedly carried 65 Ukrainian POWs. Ukrainian authorities are working to verify the identities of remains received during a November 29 POW exchange, while continuing their investigation into the incident’s circumstances.
Picture of the Day:
German opposition figure Friedrich Merz, CDU candidate for chancellor and federal CDU chairman, stands at the Wall of Remembrance for fallen soldiers in Kyiv. (Michael Kappeler/dpa via Getty Images)
Beyond Ukraine – The March Towards World War
Russian military bases in Syria face an uncertain future amid rapid political changes in the region, potentially impacting global security. While the Kremlin claims it can protect its key bases at Khmeimim and Tartus in the short term, long-term control remains unclear as Syrian opposition forces now control the surrounding Latakia Governorate and Tartus City. Though Syrian opposition leaders have stated they won’t target the Russian installations and will honor existing agreements, the potential loss of these strategic bases could significantly weaken Russia’s military presence in the Mediterranean Sea and its ability to project power near NATO’s southern border. The situation raises concerns about regional stability and the balance of military power in the area.
Russia has withdrawn all its naval vessels from Syria’s Port of Tartus, relocating them to a position approximately eight kilometers offshore. Satellite imagery confirms several major Russian ships, including frigates Admiral Gorshkov and Admiral Grigorovich, along with the submarine Novorossiysk, are now anchored in nearby waters. While Syrian opposition leaders have promised to protect Russian military facilities, the future status of Russia’s naval presence remains uncertain as negotiations continue with Syria’s new authorities. This naval repositioning could signal a significant shift in regional military balance and potentially affect stability in the Mediterranean region.
Former Syrian President Bashar al Assad has arrived in Moscow, as confirmed by Syria’s Embassy. While Russian media reports suggest Assad and his family have been granted asylum, Kremlin spokesperson Peskov indicated that only President Putin has the authority to make such a decision, though he did not confirm if asylum has been granted. Assad’s departure to Russia marks a significant shift in Syrian leadership that could reshape regional stability and impact ongoing peace efforts in the Middle East.
Following the fall of Assad’s regime in Syria on December 8, Israel has positioned troops along its Syrian border and withdrawn from the 1974 disengagement agreement. Prime Minister Netanyahu announced Israel will not allow hostile forces to establish themselves on its border. The Israeli Defense Forces (IDF) have begun military preparations, including air and missile strikes on Syrian military targets; while stating they are only maintaining a buffer zone to protect Israeli civilians.
NATO member Netherlands reported that their F-35 fighter jets intercepted multiple Russian military aircraft over the Baltic Sea on December 6, highlighting growing tensions between Russia and NATO. The Dutch jets intercepted three Russian aircraft – an An-72 transport, a SU-24 reconnaissance aircraft, and an IL-20 reconnaissance plane – all operating without proper flight plans or transponders. This incident follows similar provocative Russian activities in September when NATO intercepted six Russian aircraft and a Russian Shahed drone crashed in Latvia. These escalating encounters underscore increasing military tensions in the Baltic region and potential threats to NATO airspace security.
Moldova’s Russian-occupied Transnistria region has declared a 30-day economic emergency due to potential Russian gas disruptions, as Ukraine plans to end its gas transit agreement with Russia after December 2024. This marks a significant shift in European energy politics, as the pipeline has carried Russian gas to Europe for over 50 years. While Russia’s President Putin expressed willingness to continue gas deliveries, Ukraine’s decision could impact regional stability and energy security. Current gas flows through Ukraine have already dropped to 15 billion cubic meters in 2023, just 8% of peak 2018-2019 levels. This development could further strain relations between Russia, Ukraine, and European nations dependent on Russian gas.
The Path to Peace
U.S. President-elect Donald Trump, following a meeting with Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy in Paris, announced he is developing a plan to end the Russia-Ukraine war. Trump cited Russia’s loss of 700,000 people as reason for Putin to seek peace. During their first meeting since Trump’s reelection, Zelenskyy expressed interest in a ceasefire. Trump, who takes office January 20, promised to end the war within 24 hours, though his team’s suggestions include freezing current front lines and postponing Ukraine’s NATO aspirations. While the Biden administration announced a final $1 billion military aid package, Trump indicated possible reductions in U.S. assistance to Ukraine under his administration.
Ukraine is forming a working group with key international partners to strengthen its defense capabilities and develop a unified diplomatic approach to ending the war. The coalition will include the U.S. and major European allies with long-range weapons capabilities and investment in Ukrainian arms production. During a visit to Kyiv, German opposition leader Friedrich Merz proposed a contact group including Germany, France, the UK, and Poland to coordinate European strategy with U.S. policies. President Zelenskyy supported this initiative, emphasizing the need for allied unity. A meeting of participating nations is scheduled for December.
President Volodymyr Zelensky said Ukraine might consider French President Emmanuel Macron’s proposal to deploy foreign peacekeepers, but only after getting clarity on Ukraine’s NATO membership timeline. The statement came after Zelensky’s meeting with German opposition leader Friedrich Merz in Kyiv. While the UK and France are reportedly considering peacekeeping deployment following a potential ceasefire, Zelensky emphasized that NATO membership remains Ukraine’s priority for ensuring lasting peace.
During his Sunday prayer on December 8, Pope Francis called for a global ceasefire during Christmas, including in Ukraine where Russia’s invasion approaches its third year. The Pope’s appeal comes as Russia intensifies its offensive in eastern Ukraine. While the Pope met with President Zelenskyy in October, his earlier controversial remarks suggesting Ukraine should negotiate for peace had drawn criticism.
Situation On The Land, Sea, and Air in Ukraine
On December 5-6, the Security Service of Ukraine (SBU) conducted a special operation in Kerch Bay using their upgraded Sea Baby naval drones, which can be controlled via satellite and carry up to 800 kilograms of explosives and are now equipped with large-caliber machine guns, rocket launcher systems, and advanced targeting systems; during the operation, the drones engaged in combat with Russian helicopters, aircraft, and patrol boats, successfully damaging Russian helicopters and striking a repair barge carrying military equipment for the Crimean Bridge, with the SBU reporting Russian casualties that couldn’t be independently verified; additionally, Ukraine’s Navy reported their naval drones destroyed surveillance systems on Russian-held gas platforms in Crimea over the weekend, and notably, these same Sea Baby drones were previously used to damage the Kerch Bridge in July 2023.
Ukrainian forces destroyed a Russian S-400 air defense system near Simferopol, Crimea on November 29, according to British defense officials. This marks Ukraine’s second successful strike against an S-400 system, following an earlier attack in Kursk Oblast on November 23.
Ukrainian Operations in the Russian Federation – Initiative Russia
Russian forces reportedly seized Plekhovo, south of Sudzha, though these claims cannot be independently verified. Russian troops also reportedly advanced near Novoivanovka, while Ukrainian forces repelled a Russian mechanized assault north of Darino. Russian forces continued attacks near the Sumy Oblast border in the areas of Guevo, Gornal, and Kurilovka.
Russian forces reportedly intercepted three Ukrainian drones targeting the Kapustin Yar training ground in Astrakhan Oblast. They also claimed to have stopped a Ukrainian cross-border raid near Staroslelye in Belgorod Oblast, close to the Ukraine-Russia border.
Kharkiv Front – Initiative Russia
Russian forces attacked near the settlements of Vysoka Yaruha, Lyptsi, Hlyboke, and Vovchansk north and northeast of Kharkiv City but failed to make any advances.
Luhansk Front – Initiative Russia
Russian forces continued attacks along the Kupyansk-Svatove-Kreminna line but made no confirmed advances. Ukrainian forces are reportedly counterattacking near Dvorichna, while Russian forces attempt to establish a bridgehead across the Oskil River. Russian forces claim advances from Zeleny Hai toward Borova and near Novoyehorivka, though these claims are unverified. Additional Russian attacks occurred near Bohuslavka, Pishchane, Kolisnykivka, Lozova, Zahryzove, Kopanky, Nadiya, Druzhelyubivka, Makiivka, Hrekivka, Torske, Zarichne, Yampolivka, and Terny. Russian forces have reportedly seized Pershotravneve and Vyshneve and are attempting to push Ukrainian forces beyond the Oskil River, taking advantage of poor weather conditions for their assaults.
Donetsk Front – Initiative Russia
Ukrainian military observer Mashovets reported that Russia has deployed significant forces from multiple military districts to advance toward Pokrovsk and capture Kurakhove, Velyka Novosilka, and Vremivka. These deployments include elements from Russia’s Central, Eastern, and Southern Military Districts, representing a substantial commitment of forces to this offensive direction.
Siversk
Russian forces engaged in positional fighting near Siversk but made no confirmed advances.
Chasiv Yar
Russian forces continued offensive operations around Chasiv Yar but made no confirmed advances. While a Russian military blogger claimed advances along Haharina Street in northern Chasiv Yar and Parkova Street in central Chasiv Yar, these claims remain unconfirmed. Russian forces were active in multiple areas including northern and southern Chasiv Yar, near the Chasiv Yar Refractory Plant, the Orlovo forest area, Kalynivka, Stupochky, and Bila Hora.
Toretsk
Russian forces continued offensive operations near Toretsk but made no confirmed advances. While Russian sources claimed advances along Svitla Street and at the Tsentralna Mine in central Toretsk, these claims remain unconfirmed. Russian forces conducted operations in and around Toretsk, including near Dyliivka, Shcherbynivka, Nelipivka, and Leonidivka. A Ukrainian battalion officer reported that while Russian forces are attempting to encircle Toretsk, they currently pose no serious threat of achieving this goal.
Pokrovsk
Russian forces advanced near Pokrovsk, specifically moving westward to an agricultural area south of Novotroitske. Russian forces conducted operations across multiple settlements including Promin, Myrolyubivka, Lysivka, Dachenske, Zelene, Novyi Trud, Shevchenko, Zhovte, and Pushkine. Ukrainian military observers noted that Russian positions near Shevchenko are approximately four kilometers from southern Pokrovsk. Reports indicate that additional Russian forces may be deployed to the Pokrovsk area between December 13 and 18.
Kurakhove
Russian forces continued offensive operations around Kurakhove but made no confirmed advances. While Russian sources claimed advances in central and southwestern Kurakhove and near Dachne, these remain unconfirmed. Russian forces were active near Maksymilyanivka, Sontsivka, Stari Terny, Zorya, Dachne, and Dalne. A Ukrainian brigade spokesperson noted that Russian forces have reduced their use of armored vehicles in favor of motorcycles and buggies for assaults in the area.
Andriivka
Russian forces reportedly advanced near Vuhledar, though these advances remain unconfirmed. Russian sources claimed advances north of Uspenivka and northwest of Hannivka. Russian forces conducted operations in several areas including Katerynivka, Antonivka, Yelyzavetivka, Hannivka, Uspenivka, Kostiantynopolske, and Sukhi Yaly. The control status of Vesely Hai remains unclear.
Velyka Novosilka
Russian forces advanced northeast of Rivnopil near Velyka Novosilka, with video showing a platoon-sized mechanized assault. While Russian sources claimed captures of Blahodatne and advances near Rozdolne, these remain unconfirmed. Russian forces continued operations near several settlements including Velyka Novosilka, Novyi Komar, Rozdolne, Blahodatne, Storozheve, Novodarivka, and Rivnopil. A Ukrainian brigade spokesperson reported that Russian forces are now focusing on finding weak points in Ukrainian defenses south of Velyka Novosilka, while reducing their assault intensity near Novyi Komar.
Zaporizhia Front – Initiative Russia
Russian forces conducted offensive operations near Nesteryanka in western Zaporizhia Oblast, though they made no confirmed advances.
Kherson (Dnipro River) Front – Initiative Russia
Russian forces attacked along the Dnipro River and its delta islands without making any confirmed progress. Russian military sources report their forces in the Kherson area face severe shortages of boats, with many units having only one boat or none at all.
Ukraine News
Russian forces launched an overnight attack with two cruise missiles and 37 drones targeting multiple Ukrainian regions. Ukrainian forces shot down both missiles and 18 drones over Sumy, Poltava, Dnipropetrovsk, Chernihiv, Vinnytsia, Khmelnytskyi, Rivne, Ternopil, and Odesa oblasts. Eighteen other drones were lost to electronic warfare or technical issues and falling debris damaged infrastructure in Vinnytsia Oblast.
Over the past week (December 2-8), Russia launched nearly 500 guided bombs, 400 strike drones, and 20 missiles against Ukraine, according to President Zelensky. The US embassy in Ukraine has warned of increased threats of Russian strikes targeting critical infrastructure.
From September to November 2024, Russia launched over 6,000 drones and missiles at Ukraine – triple the amount from June-August 2024 and four times more than the same period in 2023, according to Ukrainian Air Force data. While Ukraine’s electronic warfare systems effectively counter Russian-made Shahed drones (intercepting 93% in October), they struggle against missiles, stopping only 8% of ballistic and hypersonic missiles that month. Ukrainian forces are using Mi-8 helicopters to intercept Russian Shahed drones, with video evidence showing a successful shootdown of one such drone. Over 90% of Russia’s recent aerial attacks have been drones and decoys, apparently aimed at exhausting Ukraine’s air defenses.
Russia claims to have returned remains from the controversial January 24 Il-76 military aircraft crash in Belgorod Oblast, which allegedly carried 65 Ukrainian POWs. While Russian Human Rights Ombudsman Tatyana Moskalkova announced the transfer, Ukrainian authorities state that remains received during a November 29 POW exchange are still undergoing identification to verify if they belong to Ukrainian service members. The incident, which Russia claims resulted from a Ukrainian missile strike, remains under investigation by Ukrainian officials. The unresolved circumstances of this crash continue to impact prisoner exchanges and trust between the warring nations, affecting potential peace negotiations.
President Zelenskyy plans to call President Biden to discuss Ukraine’s NATO invitation, following a meeting with German opposition leader Friedrich Merz in Kyiv. While France proposed deploying international peacekeepers in Ukraine as a bridge to NATO membership, with the UK considering similar support, German opposition leader Merz criticized these proposals. Although NATO claims Ukraine is on an “irreversible” path to membership, several key members including the U.S., Germany, Hungary, and Slovakia currently oppose extending an invitation. Zelenskyy noted that discussions with President-elect Trump about these matters would be premature since he is not yet in office.
Innocent Victims Of War
The casualty count of civilians in the past 24 hours: (Russian War Crimes)
DEATHS: 1 INJURIES: 9
Russian attacks on the city of Kherson and five nearby settlements killed one person and injured eight others.
One person was injured in Donetsk Oblast.
The aftermath of Russian attacks against Donetsk Oblast, Ukraine. (Governor Vadym Filashkin/Telegram)
Ukraine Mobilization and Defense Industrial Base
The U.S. has offered to train and equip additional Ukrainian forces if Ukraine adjusts its mobilization policy, according to State Department Spokesperson Matthew Miller. While U.S. officials, including Secretary of State Antony Blinken, are urging Ukraine to lower its minimum mobilization age from 25 to 18, President Zelenskyy has resisted these appeals, noting that Western allies have only provided enough equipment for 2.5 of the 10 requested Ukrainian brigades. Blinken emphasized that mobilization is crucial for Ukraine’s defense against Russian aggression.
President Zelenskyy rejected pressure from Western allies to lower Ukraine’s military draft age from 25 to 18, stating that youth shouldn’t compensate for equipment shortages. He emphasized the priority should be providing missiles and reducing Russia’s military capabilities rather than mobilizing younger soldiers. Following his meeting with Trump in Paris, Zelenskyy noted that Putin fears only Trump and China. Despite U.S. offers to train and equip additional Ukrainian forces if the draft age is lowered, Ukraine faces personnel shortages while Russian forces, despite heavy losses, are advancing in eastern Ukraine.
Ukraine’s Allies
During his visit to Kyiv, Friedrich Merz, Germany’s leading opposition candidate for chancellor, criticized his country’s arms policy toward Ukraine, particularly regarding the refusal to provide Taurus cruise missiles. Meeting with President Zelenskyy, Merz supported Ukraine’s right to strike Russian military targets, contrasting with Chancellor Olaf Scholz’s more cautious approach. While Germany remains a major supporter of Ukraine, its economic challenges and growing war fatigue are affecting public sentiment. Zelenskyy emphasized that Putin must be forced to end the war through Ukraine’s military strength.
Estonian Prime Minister Kristen Michal visited Kyiv for his first meeting with President Zelenskyy since becoming prime minister in July. Estonia remains committed to Ukraine’s defense, pledging 0.25% of its GDP annually for military support. Michal emphasized that “Ukraine’s victory is a win for Europe, the U.S., and the whole democratic world” and plans to meet with Ukrainian Prime Minister Denys Shmyhal and Parliament Speaker Ruslan Stefanchuk.
The U.K. announced new sanctions targeting Russia’s illicit gold trade, which helps finance its invasion of Ukraine. The sanctions freeze assets of five individuals, including Anto Joseph, CEO of Paloma Precious, which purchased over $300 million in Russian gold. Gold generated $15.5 billion for Russia in 2021, making it one of the country’s most valuable exports after energy. Reports indicate Russia has also laundered billions in African gold since 2022 to evade international sanctions and continue financing its war efforts.
Life in Russian Occupied Ukraine
A car bombing in Russian-occupied Donetsk City reportedly killed Sergei Yevsiukov (also known as Serhii), the former head of Russia’s Olenivka Prison/prisoner of war camp, and seriously injured his wife; while Russian state media reported the bombing and his death has been reported by both Ukrainian sources and Russian military bloggers, Russian authorities have not officially confirmed his identity and Ukraine has not commented on the incident; Yevsiukov was charged in absentia by Ukraine in 2023 for war crimes, including the torture of Ukrainian prisoners of war at Olenivka, where over 50 Ukrainian POWs died and more than 150 were injured in a suspected Russian missile strike in July/June 2022.
A Russian-controlled court in occupied Crimea has sentenced a 33-year-old local resident to 15 years in prison for allegedly sharing information about Russian military movements with Ukraine’s Ministry of Defense. Since Russia’s full-scale invasion began in February 2022, courts in Crimea have issued 472 rulings for “discrediting” the Russian military. The European Court of Human Rights has condemned Russia for systematic human rights violations in Crimea since 2014, including disappearances, fabricated charges, and suppression of Ukrainian media and education.
Russia News
Russia’s war in Ukraine is causing severe economic strain, with Defense Secretary Lloyd Austin reporting costs exceeding $200 billion and casualties of 700,000 since February 2022. Russia’s National Welfare Fund has plummeted from $140 billion to $53.8 billion, forcing increased reliance on Chinese yuan and gold sales. The country plans to commit one-third of its 2025-2027 national budget to defense spending, while facing a 30% increase in corruption crimes in 2024. With current losses averaging 1,000 soldiers daily, these combined financial and military pressures suggest Russia’s ability to sustain its war effort is becoming increasingly unsustainable, potentially affecting global stability and prospects for peace in the region.
Russia’s military spending hit a record $43 billion in the third quarter of 2024, with weekly spending averaging $3.29 billion, according to The Moscow Times. Both public and classified defense expenses increased dramatically, with classified spending more than doubling to $29.47 billion. President Putin recently approved a budget that will further increase military spending to $126 billion in 2025, surpassing the combined spending on education, healthcare, social policy, and the economy. The budget includes increased military salaries and a record $1.73 billion for foreign military cooperation, potentially covering purchases of Iranian drones and North Korean munitions.
President Putin has promoted two key military figures – Chechen Akhmat Spetsnaz Commander Apty Alaudinov to lieutenant general and Deputy Defense Minister Yunus-Bek Yevkurov to army general – while simultaneously targeting local officials for blame over Ukraine’s recent incursion into Kursk Oblast. Putin replaced Kursk Oblast Governor Alexei Smirnov and authorities arrested former Deputy Director Igor Grabin for mismanaging defense funds. This pattern of rewarding military leaders while punishing local officials suggests an effort to shield the military from criticism over defensive failures in the region, potentially impacting military accountability and regional stability.
A Russian military blogger reported that corruption in Russian military medical units has reached “astronomical” levels. The blogger alleged that doctors are implanting shrapnel in soldiers to claim injury payouts and issuing fake medical documents, with officials using the fraudulent gains to buy luxury properties. These schemes are reportedly costing the Russian government billions of rubles annually.
Russian War Losses (Today/Total)
Troops +1350
755940 |
Tanks +5
9524 |
Artillery +3
21064 |
Arm. VEH +7
19596 |
Aircraft 
369 |
Heli
329 |
Ships
28 |
Russia Mobilization and Defense Industrial Base
Russian President Vladimir Putin awarded several military honors, including the Hero of the Russian Federation award to State Duma Deputy Dmitry Sablin, founder of the “Grom-Kaskad” drone brigade. Putin also highlighted the “Time of Heroes program,” which places Ukraine war veterans in government leadership positions, noting that 60 participants hold the Order of Courage and 21 have received the Hero of the Russian Federation award.
Putin signed legislation extending compensation of up to 4 million rubles ($40,136) to security personnel, including Rosgvardia, FSB, and emergency workers, who are severely injured in Ukraine. The payment also covers civilian volunteers in occupied Donetsk, Luhansk, Zaporizhia, and Kherson regions. This follows a similar November 14 decree for military personnel injured in combat.
A Ukrainian official told the Wall Street Journal that Russia is producing around 1,200 modified Iranian Shahed drones monthly at the Alabuga Special Economic Zone in Tatarstan. These Russian variants use different electronics and can avoid areas where they were previously intercepted. However, when the drones encounter GPS spoofing, they get confused and burn extra fuel, giving Ukrainian air defenses more time to respond.
Russian companies exploited a loophole in Texas Instruments’ (TI) online store to obtain microchips for military use despite international sanctions, Bloomberg reported. Between August 2023 and 2024, Russian distributors processed over 4,000 orders worth nearly $6 million, with about $4 million going to military firms. The components were routed through Hong Kong before reaching Russia. President Zelenskyy noted that Russia launched over 2,000 Shahed-type drones in October 2023 alone, requiring more than 170,000 imported components. He called for tighter sanctions, highlighting that Russia continues to evade restrictions through shell companies and networks involving China, Iran, and North Korea.
Source Material
Institute for the Study of War – understandingwar.org
The Kyiv Independent – kyivindependent.com
Kyiv Post – kyivpost.com