Russia Deploys Troops in Ukraine to Defend Kursk – Day 920 (August 31, 2024)

Summary of the day: The Russian military command reportedly redeployed forces intended for offensive operations near Pokrovsk to defend against a Ukrainian incursion in Kursk Oblast, suggesting operational pressures across multiple fronts. While Ukrainian forces continued assaults in Kursk Oblast, no confirmed advances were reported. Additionally, the Russian military has reportedly reorganized separatist forces in Donetsk and Luhansk into two new combined arms armies, potentially indicating a shift in their command structure.

Picture of the day:

a statue of a man in front of a damaged building(FROM L) Silver medalist Ukraine’s swimmer Andrii Trusov, Gold medalist Argentine’s swimmer Inaki Basiloff and Bronze medalist Ukraine’s swimmer Yevhenii Bohodaiko celebrate on the podium during the medal ceremony for the Men’s 200m Individual Medley – SM7 gold Final at the Paris 2024 Paralympic Games. (Julien De Rosa / AFP via Getty Images)

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Situation On The Land, Sea, and Air in Ukraine

Russian forces have reportedly redeployed some units from the Pokrovsk, Toretsk, and Donetsk areas to defend against Ukrainian incursions in Kursk Oblast. This shift suggests that Ukrainian actions in Kursk are impacting Russian operations across the entire conflict zone, indicating growing pressure on Russian military resources. While currently limited, this redeployment may affect Russia’s ability to reinforce its priority offensive operations in eastern Ukraine, particularly in Donetsk Oblast. The decision suggests that Russia is struggling to maintain its offensives while addressing new threats, though it’s unlikely to immediately impact the situation near Pokrovsk or Toretsk.

The Russian military has reportedly reorganized forces in occupied Ukraine, creating two new combined arms armies from the Donetsk and Luhansk People’s Republics’ army corps. This restructuring, which includes larger formations, aligns with efforts to integrate these forces into the Russian Armed Forces. Concurrently, other significant military restructuring has occurred, including the formation of new motorized rifle divisions, assault brigades, and tank brigades under various army commands.

Additionally, an artillery brigade has been reported operating in the Donetsk direction, and a new airborne regiment, formed in a Russian city, has been deployed to Luhansk Oblast. The creation of this airborne regiment may indicate efforts to form a new airborne division. Elements of these restructured and newly formed units have been observed operating in various regions, including Kharkiv and Kursk directions, lending credibility to these reports. However, the Russian Ministry of Defense has not officially confirmed all these changes, and the exact subordination of some units remains unclear.

A Russian milblogger, claiming 23 months of combat experience in Ukraine, reported on August 23 that Russia is struggling to maintain full strength in its operations due to public disinterest, ineffective mobilization, and reliance on ill-prepared forces. The blogger noted that only a fraction of Russian units can conduct successful offensive operations, with the military using non-infantry personnel in combat roles due to manpower shortages. Heavy equipment losses have forced Russian motorized rifle regiments to rely more on light vehicles with limited armored support, while Ukrainian drone advantages and Russia’s lack of electronic warfare systems led to significant armored vehicle losses from October to December 2023. Russian forces also faced ammunition shortages in most areas except Zaporizhia and Pokrovsk throughout 2023 and into spring 2024.

The milblogger also observed that while Russia retains nuclear and missile strike capabilities, it’s unlikely to use nuclear weapons in Ukraine, deeming them “excessive and inhumane.” Russia continues periodic strikes on Ukrainian energy infrastructure and military facilities but isn’t conducting comprehensive strikes that would significantly impact the frontline. This acknowledgment contrasts with the Kremlin’s ongoing nuclear threats aimed at influencing US policy.

Former U.S. NATO Ambassador Kurt Volker, speaking at the Globsec conference in Prague, stated that Ukraine’s incursion into Russia’s Kursk Oblast demonstrates Russia’s limited military capabilities. Volker suggests Russia must now choose between attacking Ukraine and defending its own territory, creating an opportunity for Ukraine to exploit with long-range weapons. Ukrainian lawmaker Olena Khomenko added that the incursion proves there are no real risks of Russian escalation. Volker also noted that this situation challenges Russia’s domestic narrative about the war and may alter the dynamics of potential future negotiations between Russia and Ukraine.

Ukrainian Defense Minister Rustem Umerov reported that Russian forces are using airfields within range of US-provided ATACMS missiles. Umerov met with US Secretary of Defense Lloyd Austin to discuss Ukraine’s military needs and presented a list of potential targets within Russia. US restrictions on Ukraine’s use of US-provided weapons against targets in Russia are allowing Russia to use these areas to support operations against Ukraine. Despite reports that Russia has moved most aircraft used for glide bomb strikes away from ATACMS range, many other military targets remain within reach.

Kursk Front – Initiative Ukraine

Ukrainian forces continued assaults in Russia’s Kursk Oblast, focusing on areas near Korenevo and Sudzha. Despite multiple reported attacks, no confirmed Ukrainian advances were made. Russian sources claim to have regained some territory near Korenevo and Nechayev. The Ukrainian Unmanned Systems Forces reportedly struck a Russian pontoon crossing over the Seim River.

Kharkiv Front – Initiative Russia

Russian forces continued offensive operations north and northeast of Kharkiv City with no confirmed frontline changes. They targeted areas near Lyptsi, Hlyboke, Vovchansk, and Pletenivka. Ukrainian sources reported that Chechen forces are moving to northern Vovchansk.

Luhansk Front – Initiative Russia

Russian forces reportedly advanced near Svatove continuing offensive operations along the Kupyansk-Svatove-Kreminna line. They conducted operations in various areas, including Synkivka, Novoosynove, Hlushkivka, Kolisynkivka, Stelmakhivka, Novoserhiivka, Andriivka, Tverdokhlibove, Druzhelyubivka, Cherneshchyna, Nevske, Novosadove, Hrekivka, Makiivka, Dibrova, and the Serebryanske forest area. Russian claims of capturing Synkivka are disputed, with reports suggesting Ukrainian forces still maintain limited positions there. Russian forces are reportedly operating near Torske.

Donetsk Front – Initiative Russia

Siversk

Russian forces continued offensive operations in the Siversk area. They targeted areas east of Siversk near Verkhnokamyanske; southeast of Siversk near Spirne, Ivano-Darivka, and Vyimka; and south of Siversk near Zvanivka.

Chasiv Yar

Russian forces made small gains north of Chasiv Yar advancing into eastern Hryhorivka. They continued offensive operations near Chasiv Yar and in surrounding areas including Kalynivka, Ivanivske, Stupochky, Andriivka, Klishchiivka, and Predtechnye.

Toretsk

Russian forces reportedly captured Pivnichne, east of Toretsk, though this claim is unconfirmed. They continued offensive operations near Toretsk and south of it near Nelipivka.

Pokrovsk

Russian forces made advances southeast of Pokrovsk capturing the Chervonoarmiiska Filtration Station south of Karlivka and northern Halytsynivka. They continued offensive operations in various settlements around Pokrovsk, including Vozdvyzhenka, Hrodivka, Zelene Pole, Novohrodivka, and others. Ukrainian sources report that Russian forces have a significant manpower advantage in the area, with strong electronic warfare capabilities.

West of Donetsk City

Russian forces advanced west of Donetsk City making progress in fields west and southwest of Krasnohorivka. They continued offensive operations near Heorhiivka and Krasnohorivka. A Ukrainian soldier reported that Russian forces typically attack with 15 to 30 pieces of equipment daily in the Kurakhove direction, which is west and southwest of Donetsk City.

Southwest of Donetsk City

Russian forces reportedly advanced southwest of Donetsk City with claims of progress near Kostyantynivka and towards Vodyane. However, these claims are unconfirmed, and Ukrainian forces were seen repelling a Russian assault near Kostyantynivka. Russian forces continued offensive operations near Kostyantynivka, Vodyane, and Vuhledar.

Zaporizhia Front – Initiative None

Zaporizhia-Donetsk Border Area

A Russian source claimed that Russian forces are increasing offensive operations in the Donetsk-Zaporizhia Oblast border area. They reportedly advanced north of Urozhaine and near Pryyutne, both near Velyka Novosilka. The Ukrainian General Staff reported a Russian assault in the direction of Vremivka, which is southwest of Velyka Novosilka.

Zaporizhia Line

Positional fighting continued in western Zaporizhia Oblast with no confirmed frontline changes. A Russian source claimed seizure of a Ukrainian position and two forest areas north of Robotyne, but this is unconfirmed. Ukrainian officials reported Russian assaults near Robotyne and Mala Tokmachka.

Kherson (Dnipro River) Front – Initiative None

Ukrainian officials announced that their forces successfully repelled multiple Russian attacks in the Kherson region.

Ukraine News

Russia launched a significant aerial assault on Ukraine, involving an Iskander-M missile, four S-300 missiles, and 52 Shahed drones. Ukrainian forces intercepted 24 drones across several oblasts, while 25 others missed their targets. In Cherkasy Oblast, drone debris damaged houses. A separate airstrike on Kharkiv City on August 30 killed six and injured nearly 100. Ukrainian Defense Minister Umerov reported to US Secretary of Defense Austin that Russia had launched 400 missiles and drones against Ukraine in the past four days.

Ukraine’s Air Force Commander Mykola Oleshchuk was dismissed, but Defense Minister Rustem Umerov stated this was unrelated to a recent F-16 crash that killed pilot Oleksii Mes. The crash, which occurred during a Russian attack on August 26, is under investigation by Ukraine and its partners. The Pentagon denied knowledge of any U.S. assistance in the investigation, contrary to Oleshchuk’s claim. A U.S. official suggested the crash was not due to Russian fire.

Innocent Victims Of War

The casualty count of civilians in the past 24 hours: (Russian War Crimes)

DEATHS: 6+ INJURIES: 12+

  • Russian forces attacked Kharkiv Oblast overnight injuring at least six people, including a pregnant woman. The attack resulted in damage to several buildings and started a fire.
  • Russian drones attacked Dnipropetrovsk Oblast overnight, with two drones shot down. The attack injured two people, a 72-year-old woman and a 66-year-old man. It also caused fires and damaged power lines, a gas station, an enterprise, several high-rise buildings, about a dozen homes, and a warehouse.
  • Russian forces shelled the front-line town of Chasiv Yar in Donetsk Oblast, killing five men aged 24-38. The attack damaged a home and a high-rise building.
  • A Russian attack on the Sumy district community resulted in at least one death and four injuries. The strike also damaged grain trucks, potentially impacting harvest and transport operations.

Ukraine’s Allies

Ukraine is set to receive $800 million from the U.S. to repair its energy infrastructure, which has been severely damaged by Russian airstrikes over the past two years. First Deputy Prime Minister Yulia Svyrydenko announced this during a visit to Washington. The funds will be used for essential equipment and immediate repairs to power facilities. Russian attacks have reportedly damaged about 50% of Ukraine’s pre-war power generation capacity, leading to energy consumption restrictions. This aid comes amid reports that Kyiv is considering dismissing Volodymyr Kudrytskyi, head of the state-run power grid company Ukrenergo, due to dissatisfaction with power protection quality. Andriy Yermak, head of Ukraine’s presidential office, emphasized the crucial role of U.S. support in restoring Ukraine’s energy infrastructure.

The Netherlands will send 28 Viking Bandvagn S10 amphibious armored vehicles to Ukraine. These 11-ton vehicles can operate on various terrains, including water. Ukrainian soldiers have been trained to use them.

Denmark has delivered F-16 fighter jets to Ukraine, with Danish Prime Minister Mette Frederiksen confirming they are now operational.

President Zelensky appealed to the U.S., U.K., France, and Germany for permission to use long-range weapons against Russian targets. Defense Minister Rustem Umerov presented U.S. officials with a list of potential ATACMS missile strike targets, including airfields used to attack Ukrainian population centers. This occurred as a Ukrainian delegation met with U.S. Defense Secretary Lloyd Austin in Washington. Ukraine argues that restrictions on long-range weapons are hindering their war efforts, particularly during their incursion into Russia’s Kursk Oblast. While some Western countries have allowed Ukraine to use their arms in this incursion, and the U.S. has permitted strikes on Russian military targets near the border, the U.S. and U.K. maintain restrictions on long-range missiles and attacks deep inside Russia. Ukraine cites its capture of the Russian town of Sudzha as evidence that fears of Russian “red lines” may be unfounded.

Retired U.S. Lt. Gen. Ben Hodges criticized the West’s policy of restricting Ukraine from using long-range weapons like ATACMS missiles to strike military targets in Russia. Speaking at the Globsec Forum in Prague, Hodges argued this policy lacks a clear objective and protects Russian airfields more than Ukrainian civilians. He and Czech Armed Forces Chief Karel Rehka suggested allowing Ukraine to bring the war to Russian territory. The debate has intensified amid Ukraine’s incursion into Russia’s Kursk Oblast, though the U.S. maintains its restrictions on long-range missile use.

A Ukrainian delegation led by Economy Minister Yulia Svyrydenko and Presidential Office head Andriy Yermak met with national security advisors from the U.S., U.K., Germany, and France in Washington on August 31. These countries are among Ukraine’s top supporters, according to the Kiel Institute for the World Economy. The meetings focused on strengthening Ukraine’s air defense and energy system protection, joint arms production, and investments in Ukraine’s defense industry. They also discussed the Ukraine Compact, a security framework signed by 32 allied countries at the 2024 NATO summit. Yermak separately met with Philip Gordon, national security advisor to U.S. Vice President and Democratic presidential nominee Kamala Harris, following up on a previous phone call after President Biden dropped out of the race.

At the Globsec conference in Prague, former Dutch Defense Minister Kajsa Ollongren described the Ukraine Compact, a security framework signed by 32 allied countries at the 2024 NATO summit, as “window dressing” that falls short of a real NATO membership plan. Former U.S. NATO Ambassador Kurt Volker added that the compact is not legally binding, lacks an operational clause, and compared it unfavorably to the 1994 Budapest Memorandum. Despite these criticisms, Ukrainian lawmaker Olena Khomenko expressed satisfaction with the compact but emphasized the need to continue pursuing NATO membership. The discussion highlighted the complex perspectives on Ukraine’s security arrangements and its path to potential NATO membership.

The White House rejected a U.S. military proposal to send civilian contractors to Ukraine for F-16 maintenance, citing security risks. Instead, the Biden administration hopes European countries will take responsibility for maintaining Ukraine’s F-16s.

Life in Ukrainian-Occupied Russia

Ukrainian Ground Forces Commander Oleksandr Pavliuk reported that Russian troops are heavily attacking the town of Sudzha in Russia’s Kursk Oblast, which was recently captured by Ukrainian forces. The attacks include shelling, guided aerial bombs, and kamikaze drones. About 200 residents remain in Sudzha, down from 5,000 before the incursion.

Russia News

A large-scale drone attack reportedly targeted multiple Russian regions, including Moscow and several others. Russian officials claim to have downed 158 drones overnight. In Moscow, at least nine drones were allegedly intercepted, with one causing damage to the Moscow Oil Refinery. Other regions, including Bryansk, Voronezh, and Belgorod, reported numerous drones shot down. The attack also reportedly targeted key infrastructure like power plants and gas distribution facilities.

Russian President Vladimir Putin signed a decree on August 26, 2024, tasking the new Directorate for State Humanitarian Policy to strengthen Russia’s “spiritual and moral foundations” and preserve “traditional values.” The directorate, formed in June 2024, will oversee Putin’s interactions with certain organizations and advise on policy implementation related to Russian values. Vladimir Medinsky, a known propagandist, will reportedly lead the directorate. This move is part of the Kremlin’s ongoing efforts to establish a state ideology based on traditional values, despite the Russian Constitution forbidding such actions.

Recent Kremlin-linked polls indicate growing discontent in Russia since Ukraine’s incursion into Kursk Oblast began. Dissatisfaction with Russian authorities has increased to 28%, the highest since the 2022 mobilization, while President Putin’s approval rating dropped by 3.5%. Deputy CIA Director David Cohen predicts Russia will face a “difficult fight” to reclaim lost territory, with Putin expected to mount a counteroffensive. The Kremlin appears to be managing public opinion through a messaging campaign to justify its military priorities.

Russian Mobilization and Defense Industrial Base

The Kremlin is involving veterans in local governments across Russia, likely to boost military recruitment and manage the growing veteran population. In Samara Oblast, Governor Fedorishchev announced a “School of Heroes” program starting October 1, 2024, where 50 veterans will train for positions in regional and municipal governments. This initiative is part of the broader “Time of Heroes” program launched in April 2024, which aims to integrate veterans into government roles, particularly those who served in Ukraine.

Russia is reopening military command schools to train new specialists. The Novocherkassk Higher Military Command School of Communications in Rostov Oblast will reopen in 2026, aiming to train over 1,100 signals specialists annually. Additionally, the Higher Artillery Command School in Saratov City has already accepted 291 cadets, including 138 veterans of the Ukraine invasion. These moves indicate Russia’s efforts to bolster its military education and training capabilities.

Russian occupation officials in Zaporizhia Oblast are expanding their recruitment efforts to include women. Senator Dmitry Rogozin announced that the newly-formed “BARS-Sarmat” volunteer detachment will create a separate women’s unit called “Polina Osipenko,” focusing on drone operations. This move comes after some women reportedly expressed interest in joining the BARS-Sarmat detachment, indicating Russia’s attempt to broaden its military recruitment base in occupied territories.

A Russian student at Novgorod State University’s Polytechnic College has reportedly developed an anti-drone device using laser technology. According to the college’s press office on August 22, the device creates a laser radiation curtain that autonomously scans an area. When a drone enters the controlled space, the system allegedly targets it, potentially blinding or disabling the drone. This development suggests ongoing efforts in Russia to counter drone threats.

Source Material

Institute for the Study of War – understandingwar.org
The Kyiv Independent – kyivindependent.com
Kyiv Post – kyivpost.com

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