Summary of the Day:
The second day of the BRICS summit in Kazan exposed continuing rifts in international support for Russia, as China’s President Xi Jinping called for de-escalation in Ukraine and warned against third-party involvement amid reports of North Korean troop deployments. Iran’s President Pezeshkian used the summit to strengthen ties with Russia and China, discussing a new strategic partnership agreement with Putin.
In combat operations, Russian forces have made significant advances around Selydove, progressing along Skhidna Street in the northeast and Berehova and Zakhysnykiv streets in the east. Russian forces captured Izmailivka and advanced near Novoselydivka and Tsukuryne. However, military analysts note this focus on Selydove has diminished Russia’s ability to advance on their main objective of Pokrovsk. Additional Russian advances were reported near Kupyansk and Vuhledar.
The Pentagon and White House confirmed North Korea’s military support to Russia, with National Security Council reporting 3,000 North Korean personnel arrived in Vladivostok in early October, with plans to deploy up to 10,000 by December 2024. Meanwhile, Russia and Belarus announced plans for joint “Zapad-2025” military exercises, highlighting deepening military integration between the two nations. Reports have also emerged of Russia coercing conscripts into contract service through unauthorized enlistment bonuses.
Picture of the Day:
A group of Ukrainian military personnel completed a basic training course for piloting F-16 fighter jets in the U.K., the British Royal Air Force (RAF) reported. (Royal Air Force (RAF)/X)
Beyond Ukraine – The March Towards World War
At the 16th BRICS summit in Kazan, Russia, world leaders from 36 nations gathered, including Chinese President Xi Jinping, India’s Prime Minister Modi, UN Secretary-General Antonio Guterres, Taliban Trade Minister Nooruddin Azizi, Turkish President Erdogan, and Iranian President Masoud Pezeshkian. The summit’s Kazan Declaration revealed Russia’s difficulty in gaining international support for its position on Ukraine, making only one reference to the conflict while emphasizing UN Charter principles and territorial integrity. Ukraine’s Foreign Ministry interpreted this as Russia’s failure to convince BRICS members to support its views on changing the global order, with key members including India, UAE, Brazil, and South Africa reportedly opposing the transformation of BRICS into an anti-US coalition.
During the summit, Xi Jinping called for de-escalation in Ukraine and warned against third-party involvement amid reports of potential North Korean troop deployment to Ukraine, announcing that China, Brazil, and other Global South countries formed a “Friends of Peace” group to support a peaceful resolution. Modi emphasized the need for peaceful resolution and offered India’s mediation, while Guterres’s attendance drew criticism from Ukraine for skipping their peace summit in Switzerland.
The summit also featured significant bilateral developments, including discussions between Putin and Xi Jinping on strategic cooperation, and meetings with Iranian President Pezeshkian to strengthen bilateral ties and finalize a comprehensive strategic partnership agreement. This Russian-Iranian alliance has gained importance as Israeli operations in Gaza Strip and Lebanon have impacted Iran’s proxy network, particularly Hezbollah, and aligns with Iran’s “neighborhood policy” aimed at building regional relationships to counter international sanctions. Russia also aimed to use the gathering to develop a sanctions-resistant international payment system.
Belarus has announced its next presidential election for January 26, 2025, with current leader Alexander Lukashenko, who has ruled since 1994, expected to retain power. Opposition leader Sviatlana Tsikhanouskaya, who claimed victory in the disputed 2020 election that led to mass protests in Minsk, has denounced the upcoming election as a “sham.” Following the 2020 election, over 50,000 citizens were detained for political reasons, according to human rights group Viasna. Belarus, while not directly involved in Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, continues to host Russian troops and missiles on its territory.
Russia and Belarus have announced plans for their “Zapad-2025” military exercises, with defense ministers from both countries approving the plan in Minsk. The exercise will incorporate lessons from Russia’s invasion of Ukraine and address what they term “modern threats.” This announcement comes as part of increased military integration between the two countries under the Union State framework. The previous Zapad exercise was held in September 2021, with the planned 2023 exercises having been canceled by Russia’s Defense Ministry.
Czech journalist Ray Baseley was denied entry to Georgia at Tbilisi airport while arriving to cover upcoming parliamentary elections. According to his partner Maria Kaplina, he is being held at the airport for deportation in two days, with no explanation provided for his entry refusal. Baseley, who previously covered protests in Tbilisi against the “foreign agents” law, was traveling to report on Georgia’s October 26 parliamentary elections. The Czech Foreign Ministry has confirmed they are aware of the situation and have contacted Georgian authorities for clarification.
Situation On The Land, Sea, and Air in Ukraine
Russia’s Defense Ministry reported that its forces intercepted 10 Ukrainian drones over Crimea and destroyed four naval drones in the Black Sea approaching the peninsula.
Ukrainian Operations in the Russian Federation – Initiative Russia
Recent fighting in Ukraine’s Kursk Oblast has seen movement from both sides, with Ukrainian forces advancing in southern Zeleny Shlyakh, while Russian forces recaptured Olgovka and regained positions near Plekhovo. Russia claims to have repelled Ukrainian attacks near Plekhovo, Malaya Loknya, Sudzha, Pokrovsky, and Zeleny Shlyakh. No ground attacks were reported west of the main Kursk Oblast salient in Glushkovsky Raion.
Apty Alaudinov, commander of Chechen Akhmat Special Forces, confirmed that Russian forces committed 187 crimes, including murder and rape, while deployed in Kursk Oblast. He claimed his Chechen forces were not involved in these crimes.
Ukrainian First Deputy Defense Minister Lt. Gen. Ivan Havrylyuk reported that Ukrainian strikes on Russian ammunition depots have significantly reduced Russian artillery advantage. The ratio of Ukrainian to Russian artillery fire improved from 1:7 early in 2024 to 1:2 currently. Key strikes occurred at ammunition depots in Oktyabrskii, Toropets, and Tikhoretsk.
Kharkiv Front – Initiative Russia
Russian forces launched limited attacks near Kharkiv City focusing on Vovchansk and Starytsya, but made no advances. Ukrainian officials report that Russia is deploying new contract soldiers, including former convicts, to the area and has begun small-group infantry assaults near Vovchansk.
Luhansk Front – Initiative Russia
Russian forces advanced west of Kyslivka along the N-26 highway near Kupyansk. While Russia claimed to have captured Serebryanka near Kreminna, this was disputed. Russian forces conducted operations near multiple settlements including Stelmakhivka, Holubivka, Petropavlivka, and several others along the Kupyansk-Svatove-Kreminna line. They are using platoon to company-sized mechanized assaults and have deployed tactical missile systems, including Iskanders, to the area.
Donetsk Front – Initiative Russia
Siversk
Russian forces failed in their attack near Bondarne, located between Siversk and Chasiv Yar. Russian forces continued artillery operations in the Siversk area.
Chasiv Yar
Russian forces have claimed advances near Chasiv Yar, though these claims remain unverified, and while they occasionally cross the Siverskyi-Donets Donbas Canal during heavy fog, Ukrainian forces report they haven’t broken through defenses and can’t transport vehicles across due to Ukrainian artillery and drone strikes, effectively blocking their advance and preventing them from establishing a foothold in the city. Russian attacks continue near Hryhorivka, northeast of Chasiv Yar, while Ukrainian forces are using drones to target Russian equipment near Pokrovske, disrupting supply lines to Bakhmut. The city, now home to only 700 of its pre-war 12,000 residents, has been partially under Russian control since July when Ukrainian forces withdrew from the eastern Kanal neighborhood, with Russia intensifying its efforts to capture Chasiv Yar following their February capture of Avdiivka, viewing the city’s elevated position as strategically important for further advances in Donetsk Oblast.
Toretsk
Russian forces continued attacks around Toretsk, including claimed advances in southern Shcherbynivka (though unconfirmed), within Toretsk itself, and near Nelipivka, while also launching frequent assaults near Niu York, south of Toretsk, though Ukrainian forces report they have stabilized both the frontline in this area and their position in Toretsk, despite Russian forces remaining entrenched in the eastern part of the town. Located 35 kilometers north of occupied Donetsk, Toretsk has become a major battleground with Ukraine controlling roughly 40-50% of the town, while Russian forces are also pushing toward other key locations including Kurakhove and Pokrovsk, a crucial logistics hub 50 kilometers west of Toretsk, following Ukraine’s recent withdrawal from Vuhledar in southern Donetsk Oblast.
Toretsk
Pokrovsk
Russian forces have made tactical advances in and around Selydove, with confirmed progress along Skhidna Street in northeastern Selydove and along Berehova and Zakhysnykiv streets in the eastern part of town, capturing Izmailivka to the southeast and advancing near Novoselydivka and Tsukuryne, though Russian claims of additional gains in northern Selydove, Vyshneve, and Hirnyk remain unconfirmed. Located 18 kilometers south of Pokrovsk, Selydove has become a new focus of Russian offensive operations after capturing Vuhledar in early October, with Ukrainian National Guard reporting the repulsion of 13 Russian attacks and inflicting heavy casualties of around 307 Russian soldiers killed or wounded; however, military observers note that Russia’s focus on Selydove has diverted significant forces from their main objective of capturing Pokrovsk, leading to high Russian infantry losses and giving Ukrainian forces more time to strengthen Pokrovsk’s defenses, with Ukrainian defenses along the rail-line and M-30 highway effectively blocking advances toward Pokrovsk. While Russian advances around Selydove may force Ukrainian troops to withdraw to avoid encirclement despite their strong defense since August 2024, and though Russia may soon capture the town, military analysts suggest this victory could actually weaken their ability to take their main targets of Pokrovsk, Toretsk, and Kurakhove, where Ukrainian defenders face significant pressure while being outnumbered and outgunned, with these factors, combined with Russian combat losses, likely to slow Russian progress in the region over the coming weeks.
West of Donetsk City
Russian forces attacked near Kurakhove, focusing on the settlements of Hostre and Dalne, but made no confirmed advances.
Southwest of Donetsk City
Russian forces made advances near Vuhledar, specifically southeast of Bohoyavlenka. They also continued attacks near Antonivka, Katerynivka, Novoukrainka, and Zolota Nyva in the Vuhledar area.
Zaporizhia Front – Initiative Russia
Zaporizhia-Donetsk Border Area
Russian forces attacked near the Donetsk-Zaporizhia border area targeting areas around Velyka Novosilka. While Russian military bloggers claimed advances near Levadne and Staromayorske, no confirmed territorial gains were reported.
Zaporizhia Line
Russian forces attacked near Robotyne, Mala Tokmachka, and Novodanylivka in western Zaporizhia Oblast with no confirmed territorial changes.
Kherson (Dnipro River) Front – Initiative Russia
Ukrainian forces reportedly launched drone strikes near Enerhodar and Vasylivka in Zaporizhia Oblast, allegedly damaging infrastructure and causing power outages in 13 nearby settlements, according to Russian-appointed official Yevgeny Balitsky.
Russian forces attacked in eastern Kherson Oblast without confirmed advances. A Russian military blogger reported that extensive mining by both sides is hampering Russian supply lines and troop support in the area.
Ukraine News
Russia launched a major drone attack against Ukraine overnight using 81 drones and one missile. Ukrainian forces reportedly shot down 57 drones across multiple regions including Odesa, Mykolaiv, Kyiv, and Kharkiv. Russian strikes hit civilian infrastructure in Cherkasy Oblast, including a bus station, while a missile struck Odesa City. Ukrainian officials reported that 15 drones were disabled by electronic warfare, with nine others remaining in Ukrainian airspace.
Russian forces are reportedly using a new tactic combining “Gerbera” foam plastic drones with Shahed drones in multi-wave attacks, particularly in Sumy Oblast. The Gerbera drones are used to confuse Ukrainian air defenses, followed by waves of Shahed drones. However, Ukraine continues to maintain high drone intercept rates of over 50 percent.
President Volodymyr Zelensky has ordered the development of a new internal action plan to help Ukraine sustain its war effort, expected to be presented by the end of 2024. This plan will cover military, political, and economic aspects, working alongside Zelensky’s recently announced five-point victory plan. The internal plan aims to maintain national unity while the victory plan focuses on broader goals, including NATO membership, defense strategy, and economic cooperation. The victory plan includes three classified sections shared with international allies.
Ukraine’s Security Service (SBU) detained two suspects in Zaporizhzhia Oblast who were allegedly planning a terrorist attack in Kyiv. According to the SBU, Russian intelligence recruited a 20-year-old woman from Zaporizhzhia through Telegram, who then involved her 26-year-old partner. The pair was arrested while attempting to set fire to a military vehicle, which was reportedly a test before their planned bombing of a crowded location in Kyiv. If convicted, they face possible life sentences.
The Ukrainian Defense Ministry announced on October 23 that Roman Hladkyi has been dismissed as Chief of Staff of the Unmanned Systems Forces (USF) following a Security Service investigation, just two months after his August 2024 appointment. Hladkyi, who had previously been dismissed from the Navy in 2018 due to official misconduct, has been transferred to a reserve battalion. Colonel Oleksii Halabuda, former commander of the 28th Brigade, will replace him in leading the USF, a branch established in June 2024 to enhance Ukraine’s drone operations against Russian forces.
Ukrainian Mobilization and Industrial Defense Base
Ukraine’s defense industry faces challenges from enemy air attacks while simultaneously gaining international recognition for its military products during the war. Ukrainian manufacturers are improving their equipment, with some systems now matching or exceeding Western-provided weapons, based on direct battlefield experience. Vladyslav Belbas, who leads a Ukrainian armored vehicles company, notes their combat vehicles are performing well against foreign counterparts despite production and budget challenges.
Ukraine’s Allies
The U.S. will contribute $20 billion to a $50 billion G7 aid package for Ukraine, as announced by Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen and President Zelensky, with the EU expected to provide $20 billion and Japan, the U.K., and Canada jointly contributing $10 billion, though the plan faced uncertainty due to Hungary’s blocking of EU sanctions on Russian assets. The loans, to be split between Ukraine’s military and economic needs and address key financial needs in 2025 according to Prime Minister Shmyhal, will be funded by interest from frozen Russian assets rather than U.S. taxpayers, while Defense Secretary Lloyd Austin separately announced an additional $400 million aid package and $800 million in loans for Ukraine’s drone development, with Yellen indicating new sanctions targeting Russia’s military supply chain and third-country intermediaries will be announced next week.
The U.S. plans to increase restrictions on Russian liquefied natural gas exports to reduce Moscow’s energy revenues, according to State Department official Jeffrey Pyatt. While sanctions currently target Russia’s Arctic LNG 2 project and its shipping operations, other facilities like Yamal and Portovaya continue supplying gas to Europe and Asia. The U.S. is monitoring sanctioned cargo movements, with Russia reportedly expanding its “ghost fleet” of tankers to circumvent restrictions.
Ukraine has received $1.1 billion from the International Monetary Fund (IMF) for non-military budget spending, Prime Minister Denys Shmyhal announced. This is part of a larger $15.6 billion aid package designed to help Ukraine maintain stability during the war and support postwar recovery. While Ukraine received $42.5 billion in external financing last year, the IMF warns of high risks due to Russian attacks on energy infrastructure and war impacts on the economy. They advise Ukraine to maintain careful debt management in its 2025 budget.
The U.K. has pledged 120 million pounds to strengthen Ukraine’s Navy amid intensified Russian attacks on Odesa Oblast’s port infrastructure. Prime Minister Keir Starmer criticized Russia’s strikes, which have damaged civilian ships and threatened global food security, including aid to Palestine. The U.K. and Norway are seeking additional funding to supply naval drones and surveillance radars to protect Ukraine’s grain corridor. Recent Russian attacks have resulted in significant damage, with nearly 300 port facilities and 22 civilian vessels destroyed or damaged, and over 80 civilian casualties in the past three months.
Ukrainian pilots continue their F-16 fighter jet training, with another group completing elementary flying instruction in the UK. The British Royal Air Force has trained 200 Ukrainian pilots to date, part of an accelerated international effort to bolster Ukraine’s air defense capabilities. While Ukraine received its first F-16s in July, only 11 pilots are currently flying these aircraft in Ukraine, well short of the 40 needed for a full squadron. The program faces ongoing challenges, highlighted by the tragic loss of Ukraine’s top pilot, Oleksii “Moonfish” Mes, in an F-16 crash on August 26 during a Russian drone and missile attack.
France will deliver its first three Mirage 2000-5 fighter jets to Ukraine in early 2025, according to La Tribune newspaper. The aircraft will be equipped with SCALP/Storm Shadow missiles and AASM Hammer guided bombs. The delivery timeline accounts for pilot and mechanic training. This follows Denmark and the Netherlands’ recent F-16 deliveries to Ukraine, marking the country’s first Western fighter jets. Ukraine is also discussing potential acquisitions of Swedish Gripen and Eurofighter Typhoon aircraft.
The European Union has warned Ukraine that a planned 4-billion-euro ($4.3 billion) payment from the Ukraine Facility might be delayed until 2025 if anti-corruption reforms aren’t completed by the end of October 2024, Deputy Foreign Minister Yevhen Perebyinis announced on October 23. The delay centers on pending changes to Ukraine’s Criminal Code regarding plea agreements in corruption cases, which parliament has only approved in first reading. The Ukraine Facility, approved in February, provides 50 billion euros in total aid to Ukraine, though Finance Minister Serhii Marchenko indicates an additional $12-15 billion in foreign support may be needed next year.
Life in Russian-Occupied Ukraine
Russian authorities are seizing major Ukrainian industrial facilities in occupied Mariupol. According to Russian officials, two significant enterprises – Azovmash (Ukraine’s largest machine-building plant) and Azovelectrostal (a major steel producer) – will be transferred to Rostec, a Russian state defense company. Both facilities were damaged during Russia’s invasion and occupation of Mariupol. This is part of a wider pattern, with Ukrainian officials estimating that Russia has taken control of nearly 500 Ukrainian enterprises. The seized facilities are expected to be used to support Russia’s military production.
A Ukrainian media investigation revealed that Zaporizhia Oblast’s Russian-appointed head, Yevgeny Balitsky, authorized forced deportations of Ukrainian civilians in occupied territories through a July 2022 decree. Balitsky has openly admitted to deporting individuals who don’t support Russia’s invasion, using deportation as punishment against those who don’t show pro-Russian views.
Russia News
The International Monetary Fund has reduced Russia’s 2025 economic growth forecast from 1.8% to 1.3%, while maintaining its 2024 projection at 3.6%. This decline is attributed to slower private consumption, reduced investment, and declining wage growth. The Russian central bank is considering raising its key rate from 19% to 20-21% as inflation expectations have increased to 13.4%, the highest since December 2023. These factors have contributed to a broader slowdown in emerging market economies, which are projected to grow at 2.2% in 2025, down from 3.2% in 2024.
A recent poll by the Levada Center shows 78% of Russians still support President Vladimir Putin, though many of his supporters favor policies different from the Kremlin’s current stance. While 61% of Putin’s supporters favor peace in Ukraine with mutual concessions, and 83% want more focus on domestic issues, Putin continues to demand Ukraine cede the occupied regions of Zaporizhzhia, Kherson, Luhansk, and Donetsk as a precondition for talks. Ukraine maintains that any peace negotiations must be based on President Zelensky’s peace formula, which requires complete Russian withdrawal. Russia currently occupies about one-fifth of Ukrainian territory.
Russian War Losses (Today/Total)
| Troops +1240
684280 |
Tanks +2
9090 |
Artillery +45
19719 |
Arm. VEH +25
18254 |
Aircraft
369 |
Heli
329 |
Ships
28 |
Russian Mobilization and Defense Industrial Base
Russian military officials are reportedly forcing conscripts into contract service through unauthorized bonus payments. Reports emerged that soldiers in the 232nd Rocket Artillery Brigade received unexpected deposits of 405,000 rubles ($4,220) despite not signing military contracts. Similar incidents occurred in the 90th Tank Division, where conscripts received 305,000 rubles ($3,500). In one case, a civilian with no military experience received 660,514 rubles ($6,900). The military reportedly prevented soldiers from accessing banks to refuse these payments and transferred some to Rostov Oblast. This appears to be part of Russia’s broader effort to boost military recruitment through financial incentives.
Rostec, Russia’s state defense company, plans to triple its drone deliveries to the military for use in Ukraine by the end of 2024, according to CEO Sergei Chemezov. The company already quadrupled its drone production in 2023 compared to 2022, reflecting the growing importance of drones in modern warfare.
Russia has significantly expanded its production of Iranian-designed Shahed drones, now manufacturing them domestically in two variants alongside Iranian-made models. This increased production capacity enabled Russia to launch over 1,300 Shahed drones against Ukraine in September alone.
According to Russian sources, Russian forces are testing drone swarm technology near Chasiv Yar, which reportedly helps them counter Ukrainian electronic warfare systems.
Russia’s Allies
U.S. Defense Secretary Lloyd Austin and the White House have confirmed North Korean troop deployment to Russia, with National Security Council Spokesperson John Kirby specifying that about 3,000 North Korean personnel arrived in Vladivostok in early to mid-October. According to Ukraine’s Intelligence Chief Kyrylo Budanov and South Korean intelligence, approximately 11,000 North Korean troops, including 500 officers and three generals, are expected to be ready for combat in Russia by November 1, with plans to deploy about 10,000 troops total by December 2024. Two North Korean brigades of up to 6,000 personnel each are currently training in Russia’s Khabarovsk and Far East regions, with some officers already present in occupied Ukrainian territories and 2,600 troops headed specifically to Kursk Oblast.
According to the Wall Street Journal, Russia and North Korea’s recent strategic partnership agreement includes a secret provision allowing North Korean troops to join Russia’s war in Ukraine, initially authorizing 1,000 soldiers to gain combat experience. In exchange for military support, Russia is helping North Korea develop nuclear capabilities, including tactical nuclear weapons and submarine missile systems, and evade sanctions. North Korea has supplied Russia with 2.8 million artillery shells and ballistic missiles, with munitions factories operating at full capacity and committing to provide 1.8 million ammunition rounds annually. South Korean media outlet TV Chosun reported that North Korea sent Su-25 and MiG-29 fighter pilots to Russia’s Far East for training in early September, mirroring their past military support during the Vietnam War where they sent 80 pilots, of whom 14 died in combat.
Recent developments include reports of 18 North Korean soldiers being detained in Kursk Oblast after abandoning their positions, and six officers allegedly killed in a missile strike. Ukraine’s “I Want to Live” project has released a Korean-language video urging North Korean soldiers to surrender, promising safe detention conditions under Geneva Conventions, though former UK defense attaché John Foreman suggests potential consequences for their families back home could deter desertion. Budanov notes that North Korean soldiers, unlike demoralized Russian troops, are heavily motivated as their families face execution if they fail in combat. While North Korea’s UN representative denies these reports and the Kremlin remains evasive, South Korea is considering sending personnel to Ukraine to monitor North Korean troop activity, and NATO Secretary General Mark Rutte awaits detailed confirmation from South Korea before verifying North Korean troop involvement in Ukraine.
Source Material
Institute for the Study of War – understandingwar.org
The Kyiv Independent – kyivindependent.com
Kyiv Post – kyivpost.com