Summary of the Day:
Russia and North Korea strengthened their alliance by signing a digital communications agreement on October 30, aimed at enhancing the Kremlin’s digital control capabilities. Meanwhile, South Korea announced plans to deploy personnel to Ukraine to monitor an estimated 3,000 North Korean troops currently operating in Russia’s Kursk Oblast and occupied Donetsk Oblast.
On the battlefield, Russian forces advanced near Kupyansk, Svatove, Pokrovsk, Kurakhove, and Vuhledar, though Ukrainian forces successfully regained some positions near Kurakhove. Reports emerged of Russian command forcing wounded soldiers from the 57th Motorized Rifle Regiment to participate in high-casualty “meat” assaults near Kurakhove, with soldiers allegedly being held in “medical basements” until paying substantial bribes for release.
Western support for Ukraine continues to strengthen, with the UK pledging £3 billion annually starting in 2025, Norway committing €500 million for weapons including F-16 and NASAMS parts, and Lithuania promising immediate delivery of ammunition and supplies. Despite these developments, Russian President Putin reaffirmed his rejection of any ceasefire negotiations, maintaining his stated goal of destroying Ukrainian statehood.
Picture of the Day:
The scene of the attack on Kharkiv. (Ukraine’s State Emergency Service / Telegram)
Beyond Ukraine – The March Towards World War
Moldova’s Constitutional Court confirmed on October 31 that the country’s EU membership referendum passed, having achieved a 50.72 percent voter turnout on October 20.
Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov met with his Belarusian counterpart Maxim Ryzhenkov in Minsk where they discussed strengthening defense and security cooperation between their countries within the Union State framework.
Skydio, the largest US drone manufacturer supplying Ukraine’s military, faces supply chain disruptions following Chinese sanctions imposed on October 10. Beijing has blocked Skydio’s sole Chinese battery supplier, Dongguan Poweramp, forcing the company to ration batteries until early spring. The sanctions, which target three US military-linked firms and 10 senior executives over weapons sales to Taiwan, come as Skydio’s X-10 drone had become the first US drone to pass Ukraine’s electronic warfare tests. CEO Adam Bry warns this represents Beijing’s strategy to use supply chain dependencies as leverage while strengthening Chinese drone manufacturers’ market position. China has also implemented broader export controls on drone components since September 1.
The Path to Peace
In early October 2024, Russian President Putin told Serbian President Vucic that Russia will pursue all its military goals in Ukraine, rejecting discussions of a ceasefire. This aligns with Putin’s earlier statement to Hungarian Prime Minister Orban in July, where he claimed a ceasefire would only allow Ukraine to regroup. These responses indicate Putin’s continued commitment to his original objective of undermining Ukrainian sovereignty, with analysts suggesting any ceasefire would mainly benefit Russia by allowing military reconstitution.
Over 45 countries signed a pledge in Montreal supporting the return of Ukrainian captives and deportees held by Russia. The conference, attended by representatives from 70 countries and international organizations, focused on the fourth point of Ukraine’s Peace Formula. Several nations, including Qatar, the Vatican, South Africa, Lithuania, and the UAE, made specific commitments to help return deportees. According to the Children of War database, Russia has illegally deported at least 19,500 Ukrainian children, with fewer than 400 returned. Russia also holds thousands of Ukrainian POWs, with 3,672 freed so far. UN reports have documented widespread torture of Ukrainian POWs and shocking detention conditions.
Situation On The Land, Sea, and Air in Ukraine
According to multiple sources including U.S. Secretary of State Antony Blinken and Ukrainian officials, North Korean military personnel are present in both Russia’s Kursk Oblast and occupied Donetsk Oblast, Ukraine. While initial reports indicated 3,000 troops in Kursk Oblast, Ukraine’s military intelligence states that North Korea has sent nearly 12,000 troops total, including 500 officers and three generals. Russia has concentrated approximately 45,000 troops in Kursk Oblast and has been training North Korean forces in artillery, drones, and infantry operations. Though no direct clashes between North Korean and Ukrainian forces have occurred yet, President Zelensky suggested in his October 31 interview that this could change within days. Blinken warned that North Korean troops would become legitimate military targets if they engage in combat. This development coincides with Russia’s intensified campaign in eastern Donetsk Oblast, where Moscow’s forces are reportedly advancing at a pace not seen since the war’s early months. The presence of North Korean engineering personnel in Donetsk City, previously reported by Western intelligence and Ukrainian sources, confirms North Korean military presence in multiple locations in the combat zone, with Blinken viewing this deployment as a sign of Russian desperation.
A Russian military whistleblower revealed that the command is forcing wounded soldiers from the 57th Motorized Rifle Regiment to participate in high-casualty frontline assaults near Kurakhove. The report details how injured personnel were held in a “medical basement” until paying bribes of 1.5 million rubles ($15,459) for release. Similar practices reportedly continue in other units, including the 109th Rifle Regiment near Toretsk. This revelation comes as President Putin publicly discusses increasing support for disabled veterans, claiming current efforts are insufficient despite reported veteran satisfaction with care.
Ukrainian drones attacked the port of Berdyansk, causing damage to nearby buildings, according to both Ukrainian sources and local occupation officials.
Ukrainian Operations in the Russian Federation – Initiative None
Russian forces conducted two mechanized counterattacks in Ukraine’s Kursk Oblast, achieving small territorial gains. Near Pogrebki, Ukrainian forces fought off a Russian platoon assault on October 30. The following day, Russian forces made slight advances near Lyubimovka. Fighting continues around several settlements including Novy Put, Darino, Martynovka, Novoivanovka, Zeleny Shlyakh, and Plekhovo. While one Russian source claimed the capture of Lyubimovka, others report that Ukrainian forces still hold positions there and near Olgovka.
Russian soldiers from the 382nd Naval Infantry Battalion released a video complaint on October 27, refusing to return to combat in Kursk Oblast. They claimed military commanders ordered dangerous frontal assaults that resulted in heavy losses, including half of their assault teams. The soldiers criticized their leadership for these costly tactics.
Ukrainian drones reportedly struck an oil refinery in Ufa, Russia’s Bashkortostan Republic, located about 1,500 kilometers from Ukraine’s border. According to local officials, three drones targeted the facility, causing minimal damage with no casualties. This marks only the second Ukrainian drone attack in Bashkortostan, following a May strike on the Gazprom Neftekhim Salavat refinery. The incident is part of Ukraine’s broader campaign targeting Russian energy infrastructure, which has included strikes in Tatarstan Republic and Murmansk Oblast, demonstrating Ukraine’s long-range drone capabilities exceeding 1,000 kilometers.
Kharkiv Front – Initiative Russia
Russian forces attacked near Vovchansk, northeast of Kharkiv City, but failed to advance. A Ukrainian brigade spokesperson reported successfully defending against small Russian infantry attacks using light vehicles like motorcycles and ATVs. Russian sources claim Ukrainian forces are counterattacking near Hlyboke, north of Kharkiv City.
Luhansk Front – Initiative Russia
Recent fighting along the Kupyansk-Svatove-Kreminna line saw Russian forces advance west of Stelmakhivka and capture Kruhlyakivka. Russian forces claim additional advances near several settlements including Synkivka, Petropavlivka, Kolisnykivka, Pershotravneve, and Terny, though these claims remain unconfirmed. Combat continues across multiple areas, with Russian forces launching attacks near Kindrashivka, Pishchane, Novoosynove, Berestove, Katerynivka, Bohuslavka, Lozova, and the Serebryanske forest area. Russian sources anticipate a possible Ukrainian counterattack near Kupyansk.
Donetsk Front – Initiative Russia
Siversk
Russian forces attacked near Bilohorivka and Verkhnokamyanske in the Siversk area but failed to gain ground.
Chasiv Yar
Russian forces attacked Chasiv Yar’s eastern section, particularly the Zhovtnevyi Microraion area but failed to make verified progress. While Russian military bloggers claimed advances near the Bakhmut-Kostyantynivka highway and near Stupochky, these claims remain unverified. Ukrainian forces report successfully repelling small Russian infantry groups attempting to cross the Siverskyi-Donets Donbas Canal, with rainy conditions creating muddy terrain that’s hampering Russian movement.
Toretsk
Russian forces attacked near Toretsk without gaining ground. Ukrainian military spokesperson Major Anastasiya Bobovnikova reported fewer Russian ground attacks but ongoing artillery and airstrikes, noting that some Russian airstrikes have been inaccurate and hit their own forces.
Pokrovsk
Russian forces made small advances near Pokrovsk gaining ground south of Novotoretske and northwest of Selydove. They launched attacks across multiple settlements including Myrolyubivka, Myrnohrad, Promin, Novooleksiivka, Hryhorivka, Lysivka, Sukhyi Yar, Novohrodivka, Vyshneve, Krutyi Yar, Mykolaivka, and Selydove. Russian forces are now using buggies for infantry transport. Ukrainian officials are restricting access to parts of Pokrovsk to strengthen defenses that have been under construction since 2022.
Kurakhove
In recent fighting near Kurakhove both sides made territorial gains. Ukrainian forces recaptured positions near Pobieda, while Russian forces seized Kurakhivka. Fighting continues across several settlements including Novoselydivka, Novodmytrivka, Kreminna Balka, Illinka, Voznesenka, Ostrivka, Hostre, and Maksymilyanivka. Claims of additional Russian advances near Vovchenka and other areas remain unverified.
Southwest of Donetsk City
Russian naval infantry forces captured Novoukrainka, northwest of Vuhledar. While Russian sources claim additional advances at Yasna Polyana, Bohoyavlenka, and Trudove, these remain unconfirmed. Fighting continues around several settlements including Katerynivka, Yelyzavetivka, Dalne, Antonivka, Bohoyavlenka, Novoukrainka, Trudove, and Maksymivka.
Zaporizhia Front – Initiative Russia
Zaporizhia-Donetsk Border Area
No combat was reported by either Russian or Ukrainian sources along the border area between Donetsk and Zaporizhia Oblast.
Zaporizhia Line
Russian forces attacked in western Zaporizhia Oblast, focusing on areas near Robotyne – specifically near Charivne to the northeast and Novodanylivka to the north. Despite these assaults, they made no confirmed territorial gains. Russian military units in the area conducted drone operations near Polohy, along with artillery attacks in the broader Zaporizhia region.
Kherson (Dnipro River) Front – Initiative Russia
Ukrainian military officials reported ongoing Russian attacks along the Dnipro River in Kherson Oblast, focused on the eastern bank and the river’s delta islands.
Ukraine News
Russia launched a major aerial attack against Ukraine using multiple weapons: 4 Iskander-M ballistic missiles from Rostov and Crimea, 8 cruise missiles from over the Black Sea, and 43 drones from Kursk and Oryol regions. Key targets included a rail bridge in Zatoka (Odesa Oblast) and sites in Kramatorsk (Donetsk Oblast). Ukrainian forces intercepted 17 drones and 2 missiles across nine regions, while 23 drones were disabled by electronic warfare. The attacks caused significant damage, including a deadly strike on Kharkiv City that killed 2 people and injured 34 when a residential building was hit. Additional damage occurred to civilian facilities in Cherkasy Oblast, and drone debris caused a fire in Kyiv’s Podilskyi district.
The National Bank of Ukraine (NBU) maintained its interest rate at 13% marking the third consecutive month without a cut. The decision aims to manage rising inflation, which reached 8.6% in September, driven by a smaller harvest, weakening currency, and increasing electricity and labor costs. The NBU plans to keep rates at 13% until summer 2025, citing ongoing war impacts and economic uncertainties, particularly regarding future U.S. aid.
President Volodymyr Zelensky announced that Ukraine is preparing a bilateral cooperation document with Hungary to address ongoing tensions, particularly regarding national minorities and security cooperation. Zelensky’s minimal request is for Hungary to not block Ukraine’s NATO invitation. Relations have been strained as Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orban has blocked aid to Kyiv and pushed for negotiations with Moscow. Recent positive developments include Ukraine’s parliament approving changes to national minorities law, and both countries’ foreign ministers noting “positive dynamics” in September discussions. The agreement aims to resolve longstanding disputes, including Hungary’s accusations of discrimination against ethnic Hungarians in southwestern Ukraine.
Russian forces have shifted their attack strategy on Kyiv, launching frequent drone strikes throughout October with the 20th attack occurring today, while reducing missile strikes – a change that Ukrainian officials and experts suggest may be preparation for a major winter offensive against Ukraine’s energy infrastructure. In eastern Ukraine, residents are preparing for what may be the harshest winter since Russia’s 2022 invasion, with recent strikes having damaged critical infrastructure and knocked out about half of Ukraine’s power generation capacity. According to Donetsk region governor Vadym Filashkin, over 130 towns and villages will be without electricity this winter, with only three large towns – Kramatorsk, Sloviansk, and Dobropillia – maintaining heating systems. Ukrenergo’s interim head Oleksiy Brekht warns this could be the hardest winter in three years, with possible power outages lasting up to eight hours on critical days, noting that while September saw daily Shahed drone attacks totaling 1,300, October’s numbers have already surpassed this. Ukraine is particularly vulnerable as it relies heavily on nuclear power plants, which provide 55-60% of electricity consumption, following previous damage to thermal and hydroelectric facilities. Despite these conditions and ongoing Russian attacks, many residents like 57-year-old Volodymyr and 71-year-old Viktor Krupko are determined to stay, adapting to basement living and makeshift heating solutions to survive the winter. The Financial Times reports preliminary discussions between Kyiv and Moscow about stopping energy infrastructure attacks, though Moscow denies these talks.
Ukraine will continue its state-run wartime television broadcast, “United News,” until martial law ends, despite criticism from the European Commission. The EC urged Ukraine on October 30 to restore media plurality, questioning the telethon’s objectivity and state funding. Culture Minister Mykola Tochitsky acknowledged the EC’s concerns, stating Ukraine has “taken into account” their recommendations and will stop supporting the telethon after martial law ends. The telethon, created in February 2022 after Russia’s invasion by merging major TV channels, has faced criticism for monopolizing coverage and limiting opposition voices. The public broadcaster Suspilne has since launched separate news broadcasting on its Pershyi channel, though it technically remains part of the telethon structure.
Innocent Victims Of War
The casualty count of civilians in the past 24 hours: (Russian War Crimes)
DEATHS: 9 INJURIES: 47
A Russian guided aerial bomb struck a building in Kharkiv killing an 11-year-old boy and two other people, while wounding 35 others. Mayor Igor Terekhov reported that people were trapped in the building’s upper floors after the strike destroyed several levels.
A Russian air strike on Kharkiv on October 30 killed three people – a man and two boys aged 12 and 15 – and injured 35 others when a FAB-500 bomb hit a residential building. The strike destroyed five floors of a 9-story apartment building in a civilian neighborhood. Several injured residents, including a child, were rescued from the rubble.
In Dnipro, a Russian attack wounded a 14-year-old boy, causing injuries to his legs.
In Donetsk Oblast, Russian attacks killed four people in the communities of Uspenivka, Zarichne, and Berestky. Two additional people were injured in Shcherbynivka and Dalne.
In Kherson Oblast, Russian forces struck multiple civilian targets including a library, an office building, and homes, killing one person and wounding six others.
In the village of Khotinska, Sumy Oblast, Russian forces using FPV drones and mortars attacked the community, killing one civilian and wounding three others.
Ukrainian Mobilization and Industrial Defense Base
Ukraine’s parliament approved the first reading of its 2025 budget, allocating 26% of GDP (approximately $53.4 billion) to defense spending, an increase of $1.6 billion from 2024. The total state spending will reach $87.4 billion, with revenues expected at $65.5 million. With a projected $35 billion deficit and heavy reliance on external support, Ukraine recently implemented its first wartime tax increase to help fund its expanding military needs.
Ukraine’s Allies
South Korea plans to send personnel to Ukraine to monitor North Korean military activities there, according to a South Korean presidential office announcement. Defense Minister Kim Yong-hyun indicated this deployment can proceed without parliamentary approval. The initiative aims to analyze North Korean troops’ tactics and combat capabilities, with Ukrainian President Zelensky and South Korean President Yoon Suk Yeol recently discussing enhanced intelligence cooperation.
Western allies are strengthening their long-term military support for Ukraine. The UK announced plans to provide £3 billion ($3.87 billion) in annual military aid starting in 2025, while Norway pledged €500 million ($544 million) for weapons, including F-16 and NASAMS parts. Lithuania will deliver ammunition, mortar rounds, and generators to Ukraine this week.
Two U.S. lawmakers, Republican Joe Wilson and Steve Cohen, have asked President Biden to permit Poland to intercept Russian missiles over Ukraine. The request, reported by The Hill on October 30, aligns with a Polish-Ukrainian security agreement from June. While Poland’s Foreign Minister Sikorski supports shooting down Russian missiles, particularly to prevent potential nuclear disasters like Chornobyl, NATO approval would be required. The former NATO Secretary General Stoltenberg opposed such involvement, and his successor Mark Rutte hasn’t yet addressed the issue. Poland maintains it has the legal right to defend its airspace from stray Russian missiles and drones.
Ukraine has received only 10% of the $60.84 billion U.S. aid package approved by Congress in April 2024, according to President Zelensky’s October 30 press conference. While NATO promised 6-7 air defense systems, these haven’t been delivered as Ukraine enters its heating season. U.S. Defense Secretary Lloyd Austin recently announced a $400 million military assistance package during an unexpected visit to Kyiv on October 21. Meanwhile, Russian forces continue advancing in eastern Ukraine, with concerns growing about potential attacks on Ukraine’s energy infrastructure as winter approaches.
President Zelensky said Ukraine is still waiting for promised MiG-29 fighter jets from Poland, while also requesting Polish assistance in shooting down Russian missiles threatening Ukraine’s gas storage facility in Stryi, Lviv Oblast. Despite a July bilateral security agreement addressing missile interception, Poland has been cautious in responding, citing NATO concerns about escalation. Poland’s Defense Minister stated they’ve already provided maximum support to Ukraine, while NATO Secretary General Stoltenberg warned that such interventions risk drawing the alliance into the conflict.
President Zelensky expressed frustration after confidential Ukrainian requests for Tomahawk missiles were leaked to U.S. media. The missiles, with a 1,500-mile range, were part of Ukraine’s proposed deterrence package. Zelensky explained the missiles would only be used if Russia refused to end the war. The U.S. was hesitant to provide them due to limited availability. This comes as Ukraine seeks to secure additional U.S. support amid concerns about future aid levels and ongoing Russian military pressure.
Russian War Losses (Today/Total)
| Troops +1460
696410 |
Tanks +6
9162 |
Artillery +26
20039 |
Arm. VEH +20
18470 |
Aircraft
369 |
Heli
329 |
Ships
28 |
Russian Mobilization and Defense Industrial Base
Russian Prime Minister Mikhail Mishustin announced that Russian soldiers serving in Ukraine will have their previous civilian jobs protected, allowing them to return to their former positions after completing their military service. This policy aims to help veterans transition back to civilian life without having to search for new employment.
Russian authorities in Samara Oblast have significantly increased recruiter bonuses from 15,000 rubles ($154) to 100,000 rubles ($1,026) for each successful military contract recruitment. According to Kommersant, while the incentive represents nearly a seven-fold increase, it’s unclear whether these higher payments are improving recruitment numbers.
Russian forces have reportedly modified their Shahed-136 drones to carry thermobaric warheads, according to an October 29 report from the Kyiv Scientific Research Institute of Forensic Expertise. This finding was based on analysis of drone debris from Russian strikes conducted between October 26-29.
Rostec subsidiary Roselectronics announced on October 30 that it has developed a radar-absorbing coating for TOS-1A thermobaric artillery systems, claiming the coating will make these weapons undetectable to modern guidance systems and thermal imaging.
Russia’s Allies
Ukraine’s U.N. ambassador Sergiy Kyslytsya has identified three North Korean generals now supporting Russia’s war effort: Colonel Generals Kim Yong Bok and Ri Chang Ho, both deputy chiefs of North Korea’s General Staff, and Major General Sin Kum Cheol. Russia is reportedly preparing to deploy 12,000 North Korean troops, with approximately 400 already stationed in Russia’s Kursk Oblast. Recent intelligence indicates that between October 23-28, seven aircraft transported about 2,100 soldiers to Russia’s Ukrainian border. Russia plans to integrate these forces into units with ethnic minorities from its Far East regions to hide their presence. While Russia’s U.N. envoy Vasily Nebenzya denies these claims, Ukraine expects North Korean troops to join combat operations in November.
Controlling the Narrative and Russian Propaganda
North Korea and Russia signed a digital communications agreement, focusing on information technology and communications cooperation. This follows a July 2024 agreement between the two countries’ prosecutor generals’ offices, where Russia expressed interest in learning from North Korean judicial practices, particularly in communications and information technology. These agreements appear to be part of Russia’s efforts to strengthen its domestic information control and digital surveillance capabilities.
A Russian court has levied an astronomical fine of $2.5 decillion against Google for allegedly blocking pro-Kremlin content on YouTube. The fine, which began at 100,000 rubles in 2020, has doubled weekly under Russian law, reaching a sum that vastly exceeds the global GDP of $110 trillion. Google, which faces ongoing legal challenges in Russia predating the war, has previously been fined smaller amounts for similar content violations, including $78.2 million in 2021 and $227 million in 2022. The company stated these legal matters would not materially affect its operations, though Russian authorities threaten to double the fine daily if unpaid within nine months.
Source Material
Institute for the Study of War – understandingwar.org
The Kyiv Independent – kyivindependent.com
Kyiv Post – kyivpost.com