Summary of the Day:
Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky met with US Vice President JD Vance at the Munich Security Conference today, discussing continued military support and peace prospects. During the conference, Zelensky issued a stark warning about Russian plans to potentially amass up to 150,000 troops near Belarus by 2026, raising concerns about possible attacks on either northern Ukraine or NATO’s eastern flank.
On the battlefield, Russian forces made notable advances near Vovchansk, Lyman, Kurakhove, and Pokrovsk, while Ukrainian forces gained ground in Kursk Oblast and near Kurakhove. Meanwhile, a Russian Shahed drone struck the protective structure of the Chornobyl Nuclear Power Plant, though officials confirmed radiation levels remained stable.
In Moscow, the Kremlin ordered state media to reduce coverage of US President Donald Trump following their February 12 phone call, emphasizing Putin’s leadership instead. Notably, Russian officials have paused their campaign to delegitimize Zelensky’s presidency since the call, marking a significant shift in messaging. Reports also indicate Russia is intensifying efforts to pressure mobilized and conscripted personnel into signing formal contracts with the Ministry of Defense.
Picture of the Day:
A Ukrainian serviceman watches an inspection of the damage to the radiation containment shield of Reactor 4 at the Chornobyl Nuclear Power Plant following a Russian drone strike, Ukraine, on Friday. (Andrew Kravchenko / Bloomberg via Getty Images)
Beyond Ukraine – The March Towards World War
Sudan has agreed to host Russia’s first naval base in Africa, as announced by Sudanese Foreign Minister Ali Youssef during a Moscow visit on February 12. The base will provide Russia strategic access to the Red Sea, a crucial waterway handling 12% of global trade via the Suez Canal. This development comes as Russia faces uncertainty about its Mediterranean naval presence following Syrian dictator Bashar al-Assad’s overthrow in December and subsequent withdrawal from Syria. The future of Russia’s existing bases in Tartus and Khmeimim now depends on negotiations with Syria’s new government. This expansion of Russian military presence in the Red Sea, where both China and the U.S. maintain bases in Djibouti, could potentially affect regional power dynamics and maritime security.
The Path to Peace
Following a 90-minute call between U.S. President Trump and Russian President Putin, plans emerged for a summit in Saudi Arabia to negotiate an end to Russia’s invasion of Ukraine. Saudi Arabia, which previously hosted a peace summit in 2023 and has helped negotiate prisoner exchanges, maintains strong economic ties with Russia despite the invasion. Putin is assembling a negotiation team including foreign policy aide Yuriy Ushakov, intelligence chief Sergey Naryshkin, and investment fund head Kirill Dmitriev, while Trump’s delegation will be led by Secretary of State Marco Rubio, CIA Director John Ratcliffe, and National Security Advisor Michael Waltz.
At the Munich Security Conference, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky met with US Vice President JD Vance, Secretary of State Marco Rubio, and Ukraine-Russia Special Envoy Keith Kellogg to discuss a potential minerals agreement that would give U.S. companies access to Ukraine’s mineral reserves in exchange for continued military and financial support. U.S. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent had previously delivered a draft agreement to Zelensky in Kyiv on February 12. During the conference, Vance caused controversy through an interview with the Wall Street Journal suggesting military options could be “on the table” in negotiations with Russia, before backtracking on social media stating, “This war is between Russia and Ukraine.” In his conference address, Vance took a combative stance toward European leaders, suggesting progressive European policies posed a greater threat to the EU than Russia, which prompted criticism from German President Steinmeier.
Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth sparked controversy by calling Ukraine’s return to pre-war borders “unrealistic” and ruling out NATO membership, drawing strong criticism from Senate Armed Services Chair Roger Wicker, who compared the remarks to something “Tucker Carlson could have written.” While Hegseth partially walked back his comments, Trump maintained that Ukraine’s NATO membership was not “practical” and pre-2014 border restoration was “unlikely” after speaking with Putin. In an NBC News interview, Zelensky rejected the idea of a Russian-terms ceasefire, arguing that Putin seeks only a temporary pause to rebuild military strength and ease sanctions.
Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orban, the EU’s most Russia-friendly leader, expects Russia’s reintegration into the world economy and Europe’s energy system following any peace deal, supporting the lifting of sanctions on Russia and claiming they harm European economies more than Moscow. Despite Trump’s announcement of planned talks in Munich between Moscow, Kyiv, and Washington officials, Ukraine’s Presidential office denied any scheduled meetings with Russia. Zelensky emphasized that no peace talks should proceed without Ukraine’s involvement and rejected Munich as a potential signing location, referencing the historic 1938 agreement that enabled Germany’s annexation of Czechoslovak territory. He indicated willingness to meet Putin, but only after developing a joint plan with Trump and the EU.
Situation On The Land, Sea, and Air in Ukraine
Russian forces have used munitions containing hazardous chemicals 6,129 times in Ukraine since February 2023. The Organization for the Prohibition of Chemical Weapons confirmed that Russian grenades contained CS riot control agents, chloroacetophenone, chloropicrin, and mercaptans, violating the Chemical Weapons Convention. Over 2,000 Ukrainian soldiers have been hospitalized for chemical poisoning, with three deaths reported. In response, Ukraine’s Security Service assassinated Lieutenant General Igor Kirillov, head of Russia’s chemical defense troops, who had been charged with using banned chemical weapons.
Ukrainian Operations in the Russian Federation – Initiative Russia
Recent military engagements in Ukraine’s Kursk Oblast saw both Ukrainian and Russian forces making advances. Ukrainian forces moved forward in a forested area near Kositsa, while Russian forces gained ground in southern Sverdlikovo. Fighting occurred near several settlements including Sudzha, Kurilovka, and Cherkasskaya Konopelka. A Ukrainian source reported destroying a company-sized North Korean force during a recent Russian-North Korean assault in the region. Russian forces in the area include elements of the Black Sea Fleet’s Naval Infantry, motorized rifle units, and various specialized drone operators.
North Korean troops fighting alongside Russian forces in Ukraine have suffered approximately 4,000 casualties, with two-thirds killed. Up to 12,000 North Korean soldiers were initially deployed to Kursk Oblast last fall, with an additional 2,000-3,000 troops being transferred. Ukraine’s military intelligence chief Kyrylo Budanov attributes the high casualties to their inexperience and use of human wave attacks with minimal equipment, noting their extreme loyalty to Kim Jong-un leads to dangerous disregard for personal safety.
Ukrainian forces conducted a drone strike on Slavyansk-on-Kuban in Russia’s Krasnodar Krai region. Russian air defenses intercepted the drone, with falling debris causing a field fire on the city’s outskirts.
Kharkiv Front – Initiative Russia
Russian forces made a small advance along Shchorsa Street in eastern Vovchansk, northeast of Kharkiv City, as shown in recent footage. Fighting has decreased near Lyptsi, north of Kharkiv City, partly due to poor weather conditions, according to a Ukrainian brigade spokesperson.
Luhansk Front – Initiative Russia
Kupyansk
Russian forces continued attacks near Kupyansk conducting assaults near Holubivka and Petropavlivka but made no confirmed advances. A Russian source claimed troops advanced near Dvorichna and established positions west of the Oskil River, though this remains unconfirmed.
Borova
Russian forces attacked multiple settlements near Borova including Zahryzove, Bohuslavka, Zelenyi Hai, Novoserhiivka, Hrekivka, and Makiivka, but made no confirmed advances. A Russian military blogger claimed forces advanced in a forested area near Makiivka, though this remains unverified.
Lyman
Russian forces advanced in northern Yampolivka, northeast of Lyman. They also conducted attacks near Novosadove, Kolodyazi, and Novolyubivka. Russian sources claimed additional advances near Yampolivka and east of Kolodyazi, though these remain unconfirmed.
Donetsk Front – Initiative Russia
Siversk
Russian forces launched attacks near Siversk at Hryhorivka, Bilohorivka, and Verkhnokamyanske but failed to make any advances.
Chasiv Yar
Russian forces launched attacks on the Ukrainian settlement of Chasiv Yar but failed to make any territorial gains in the area.
Toretsk
Russian forces attacked multiple locations around Toretsk, Ukraine, including Krymske to the north, Shcherbynivka to the west, and Sukha Balka and Leonidivka to the southwest. Russian forces failed to advance in any of these areas.
Pokrovsk
Russian forces made limited advances in the Pokrovsk region, particularly north of Yelyzavetivka, within Pishchane, and northeast of Nadiivka. They launched attacks across multiple settlements including Zelene Pole, Vodyane Druhe, Tarasivka, Lysivka, Zvirove, and several others. While Russia claims to have captured Zelene Pole, Ukrainian President Zelensky indicated the situation in the Pokrovsk direction has improved, with Ukrainian military reporting decreased Russian activity in the area despite its remaining one of the most active frontline sectors.
Andriivka
Both Ukrainian and Russian forces made advances in the Kurakhove direction, with Ukrainian forces progressing northeast of Zelenivka while Russian forces advanced along the C-050450 highway south of Rozlyv. Russian forces continued attacks near Dachne, Kostiantynopil, Zelenivka, Shevchenko, and Andriivka. While Russia claimed additional advances near Andriivka and Slovyanka, these claims remain unconfirmed.
Velyka Novosilka
Russian forces attacked near Novosilka and Burlatske, west and northwest of Velyka Novosilka. Russian forces failed to make confirmed advances, though they claimed unverified progress north of Vremivka.
Zaporizhia Front – Initiative Russia
Russian forces continued offensive operations in the Zaporizhia direction with ongoing positional fighting reported. While Russian occupation official Vladimir Rogov claimed the capture of two Ukrainian strongholds near Mala Tokmachka, these advances remain unconfirmed.
Kherson (Dnipro River) Front – Initiative Russia
Russian and Ukrainian sources reported no ground activity in the Dnipro direction.
Ukraine News
Russia launched 133 Shahed and decoy drones against Ukraine from multiple launch sites in Russia. Ukrainian forces successfully intercepted 73 drones across eleven oblasts, while 58 decoy drones were neutralized through electronic warfare. The attacks caused damage in Kyiv, Sumy, Chernihiv, Odesa, and Kharkiv regions.
A Russian Shahed drone struck the New Safe Confinement “Arch” structure at the Chornobyl Nuclear Power Plant, a massive €1.5 billion protective shelter built between 2012-2016 to contain radiation from the destroyed Reactor 4 that exploded in 1986. While Ukrainian officials reported the strike didn’t fully pierce the containment structure and radiation levels remain normal due to the underlying old Sarcophagus structure, President Zelensky described the damage as “significant” and noted the drone flew unusually low to avoid detection. Energy Minister Herman Halushchenko called the attack an act of nuclear terrorism threatening the entire continent, and Ukrainian officials called on the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) to take stronger measures to prevent Russian attacks on nuclear facilities.
The attack, which experts believe Russia deliberately targeted from Belarus despite Russian denials and accusations that Ukraine conducted the strike, occurred as Zelensky attended the Munich Security Conference where attendees expressed outrage. Repairs could cost between $50-300 million and require months of international specialist work, and all ongoing maintenance work at the site has been suspended. The IAEA confirmed the explosion at the site of the 1986 nuclear disaster, and while the fire was extinguished, the damage to the protective structure has raised serious concerns.
Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky warned at the Munich Security Conference that Russia may be preparing a major offensive for 2026, potentially assembling up to 150,000 troops in 15 divisions near Belarus. This force could threaten either northern Ukraine or NATO countries like Poland and the Baltic states, representing a significant escalation that could expand the conflict beyond Ukraine’s borders and potentially draw NATO into direct confrontation with Russia.
More than 150 Ukrainian prisoners of war may be held in Chechnya, with 36 potentially in Grozny, according to Ukraine’s Coordination Headquarters for POW Treatment. Since Russia’s 2022 invasion, Ukraine has documented over 100 cases of Russia summarily executing POWs, though the actual number is likely higher. The headquarters reports that captured Ukrainian soldiers are transferred to Chechnya from various frontline sectors, where humanitarian law and Geneva Convention requirements are not observed. While 3,956 Ukrainians have been freed from Russian captivity since the war began, including 1,358 in 2024, Ukraine has received no POW exchange requests from Chechnya.
Ukraine recovered the bodies of 757 fallen soldiers from multiple front-line areas including Pokrovsk, Bakhmut, Vuhledar, Luhansk, and Zaporizhzhia in February 2024. The operation involved several Ukrainian agencies and the International Red Cross. This follows the repatriation of 503 soldiers’ remains in December. President Zelensky reported that approximately 43,000 Ukrainian soldiers have died since Russia’s invasion began.
Ukraine’s State Bureau of Investigation has detained Pin-Up online casino’s director for alleged Russian ownership and operations in Russia. The investigation revealed that Russian citizens owned the company and collected personal data from users, including Ukrainian military personnel. The company reportedly maintained operations in Russia and Russian-occupied territories while having ties to Russian veterans who fought in Ukraine. Ukrainian authorities have already seized and transferred Hr 2.6 billion ($62.5 million) of Pin-Up’s assets to Ukraine’s Asset Recovery and Management Agency. This development follows Ukraine’s recent restrictions on online gambling, including a ban for military personnel during martial law, implemented through President Zelensky’s April 20 decree.
The Ukrainian Prosecutor General’s Office has launched criminal proceedings against five prominent figures recently sanctioned by the National Security and Defense Council. The accused include oligarch Ihor Kolomoisky, billionaire Konstantin Zhevago, former PrivatBank co-owner Hennadiy Boholyubov, former President Petro Poroshenko, and ex-lawmaker Viktor Medvedchuk. The charges range from high treason and embezzlement to aiding terrorist organizations. Kolomoisky faces charges of embezzling Hr 5.36 billion and allegedly orchestrating a contract killing. Medvedchuk is accused of helping Russia seize Ukrainian oil fields and leaking military information. Poroshenko is charged with treason related to coal supply schemes worth Hr 3 billion, while Zhevago is suspected of embezzling $113 million. The sanctions freeze their assets and block financial transactions indefinitely.
Ukraine Mobilization and Defense Industrial Base
At the Munich Security Conference, President Volodymyr Zelensky stated that without NATO membership, Ukraine would need Western support to maintain a 1.5 million-strong military to effectively defend against Russia, costing $60 billion annually. Currently, Ukraine has 980,000 military personnel and 110 combat brigades compared to Russia’s 220 brigades. While Ukraine applied for NATO membership in September 2022 and NATO leaders have declared Ukraine’s path to membership “irreversible,” a formal invitation has not yet been extended.
German drone manufacturer Quantum Systems plans to double its drone production in Ukraine, where it operates two facilities producing Vector reconnaissance drones. The announcement came after a meeting between company representatives and Ukraine’s Strategic Industries Ministry at the Munich Security Conference. The company, which has supported Ukraine since Russia’s 2022 invasion, promised to deliver 500 reconnaissance drones by the end of 2024. This expansion aligns with Ukraine’s creation of the Unmanned Systems’ Forces, a specialized military branch focused on drone operations and development.
Ukraine’s Allies
Ukraine’s Defense Minister Rustem Umerov announced that “most” of Denmark’s promised 19 F-16 fighter jets have arrived in Ukraine, with the remainder expected this year. Additionally, Ukraine recently received F-16s from the Netherlands and its first batch of French Mirage 2000 fighters. Recent footage suggests Ukrainian F-16s, initially used only for air defense, are now equipped for ground attack missions. The Netherlands has confirmed Ukraine can use Dutch-donated F-16s over Russian territory if international humanitarian law is followed.
Life in Russian Occupied Ukraine
Eight Ukrainian children were successfully returned home from Russian-occupied territories. The children, including siblings, were from Luhansk, Zaporizhzhia, and Kherson oblasts. This is part of a larger crisis where Russia has reportedly abducted between 20,000 to 300,000 Ukrainian children, leading to war crime accusations and ICC arrest warrants for Russian President Vladimir Putin and Children’s Commissioner Maria Lvova-Belova. A Yale study revealed Russia’s systematic program of deporting Ukrainian children, reclassifying them as Russian-born, and placing them with Russian families across 21 regions. Ukraine has managed to return 388 children so far through its “Bring Kids Back UA” initiative.
Russia News
Russian companies have been permitted to abandon modernization projects at over a dozen power plants across the country due to funding shortages and equipment issues. The affected facilities include plants in Nizhnekamsk, Nizhny Novgorod, Voronezh, Kostroma, Yaroslavl, Stavropol Krai, Surgut, Izhevsk, and Samara. Rising equipment costs, loan difficulties, and delivery delays were cited as key reasons. The development signals mounting pressure on Russia’s economy from Western sanctions, with impacts now visible across power generation, automotive, aviation, and retail sectors.
Russian War Losses (Today/Total)
Troops +1180
856660 |
Tanks +11
10068 |
Artillery +59
23174 |
Arm. Veh. +17
20927 |
Aircraft 
370 |
Heli
331 |
Ships
28 |
Russia Mobilization and Defense Industrial Base
Russian military commanders are reportedly forcing mobilized personnel from Sverdlovsk Oblast to sign long-term service contracts, according to State Duma Deputy Maxim Ivanov. Those who refuse to sign are being reassigned from specialist roles to infantry assault units. Ivanov has raised this issue with Defense Minister Andrei Belousov.
A former Storm-Z instructor reports that commanders in Russia’s 85th Motorized Rifle Brigade are forcing mobilized soldiers who refuse to sign military contracts into frontline infantry units. The Military Prosecutor’s Office discovered forged signatures on conscript contracts in several units of the 90th Tank Division. Russian news outlet Verstka adds that commanders are pressuring those mobilized in 2022 to sign contracts, though contract end dates may not be honored.
President Vladimir Putin has ordered Russia’s Defense Ministry and Rosgvardia to develop proposals for a network of military educational institutions by June 1, in what appears to be an effort to strengthen long-term military recruitment and restructuring.
Russian forces have deployed a new electronic warfare system called “KOP-2,” which uses Chinese components to detect and suppress drones operating on multiple frequencies, according to a Ukrainian source.
Controlling the Narrative and Russian Propaganda
In a strategic shift reported by Russian opposition news outlet Meduza, the Kremlin has directed state-run media to downplay coverage of US President Donald Trump while emphasizing President Vladimir Putin’s leadership following their February 12 phone call. The directive aims to portray the call as Putin’s initiative and success, with sources indicating concerns that Trump might appear more decisive than Putin to Russian audiences. The Kremlin also instructed media to manage public expectations about potential negotiations between the two leaders.
Following the February 12 Trump-Putin phone call, Russian officials have notably paused their campaign to delegitimize Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky – a significant shift from Putin’s January efforts to question Zelensky’s leadership. While the duration of this pause remains unclear, any Russian recognition of Zelensky’s legitimacy would mark a major change in Russia’s stance, as they have challenged the legitimacy of all Ukrainian leaders since 2014.
Source Material
Institute for the Study of War – understandingwar.org
The Kyiv Independent – kyivindependent.com
Kyiv Post – kyivpost.com