Summary of the day: Russian forces have intensified efforts to seize Chasiv Yar and are preparing for the second phase of their offensive in northern Kharkiv Oblast, likely following the anticipated seizure of Vovchansk. They have also made marginal advances near Avdiivka, Hulyaipole, and Robotyne. Amid these developments, President Zelensky has highlighted the need for materiel to counter Russia’s air superiority and has requested the US ease restrictions on targeting within Russian territory. Meanwhile, Ukraine’s new mobilization law aims to address manpower challenges, and internal Russian criticism of the Ministry of Defense grows, potentially influencing war efforts.
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Beyond Ukraine – March Towards World War
Georgian President Salome Zurabishvili vetoed the Russian-style “foreign agents” bill, citing it as contradictory to Georgia’s constitution and European standards. Despite her veto, the ruling Georgian Dream party, which passed the bill on May 14 with an 84-30 vote, is expected to override the veto in the coming weeks. The Georgian parliament will reconvene in four weeks to address the veto and likely push the bill through.
Russian MFA Spokesperson Maria Zakharova used protests in French New Caledonia to criticize France, portraying the West as destabilizing. She accused France of meddling in foreign issues, ignoring that New Caledonia is a French territory.
Situation On The Land, Sea, and Air in Ukraine
Russian Security Council Deputy Chairperson Dmitry Medvedev called for a “buffer zone” to encompass all of Ukraine, indicating Russia’s intent to subsume the country. On May 17, Medvedev suggested this zone should extend over central and western Ukraine to protect Russian cities from Ukrainian strikes. He claimed that continued Ukrainian attacks could push the buffer zone to Poland’s border. Mikhail Zvinchuk also advocated for Russian forces to occupy additional Ukrainian areas for this buffer. This narrative aims to justify further Russian offensives and garner domestic support ahead of expected summer 2024 operations.
Zelensky outlined Ukraine’s need for more air defenses to counter Russia’s air superiority, highlighting US restrictions that prevent Ukraine from striking within Russian territory. He stated that Ukraine currently has only 25% of the needed air defenses and called for two Patriot batteries to be deployed in Kharkiv Oblast. Additionally, Ukraine requires 120-130 F-16s or other advanced fighters to achieve air parity with Russia. The US restrictions create a safe zone for Russian forces to launch attacks without fear of retaliation, limiting the effectiveness of Ukraine’s defenses.
Ukrainian officials have asked the US to ease restrictions on using US-provided weapons to strike military targets in Russia and for additional targeting assistance. The New York Times and Wall Street Journal reported that Ukraine made this request recently. The US, however, does not want to encourage attacks within Russia and has previously rejected similar appeals. This policy limits Ukraine’s ability to defend against Russian offensives, especially in northern Kharkiv Oblast.
Russian officials claimed that Ukrainian forces attempted drone strikes against occupied Crimea. The Russian Ministry of Defense reported intercepting a Ukrainian aerial drone over Crimea and two maritime drones in the Dnipro River and the western Black Sea.
Kharkiv Front – Initiative Russia
Luhansk Front – Initiative Russia
Donetsk Front – Initiative Russia
Zaporizhia Front – Initiative Russia
Kherson (Dnipro River) Front – Initiative None
Russian forces are preparing for the next phase of their offensive in northern Kharkiv Oblast, aiming to seize Vovchansk and eventually push towards Kharkiv City. Despite advancing 5-10 kilometers, Ukrainian forces have halted their progress. Russian forces are conducting waves of attacks but lack the manpower to seize Kharkiv City. Limited Russian reserves from Belgorod, Kursk, and Bryansk are being used, with 2,000 troops at the frontline and an additional 1,500-2,000 in reserve. Ukrainian sources report heavy losses for Russian forces and note that other Russian units are not available to support this offensive.
Russian forces have launched offensive operations near the international border before fully reinforcing their Northern Grouping of Forces. Currently, around 35,000 Russian troops are deployed in the Kursk, Bryansk, and Belgorod oblasts, with plans to increase this number to 50,000-75,000. An additional 3,750 Russian troops may soon arrive in northern Kharkiv Oblast. Offensive operations occur in waves, with intensity shifting between sectors. Russian forces may temporarily slow down to replenish losses and strengthen their forces before resuming attacks later.
Russian forces are focusing on seizing Vovchansk in northern Kharkiv Oblast. They are striking bridges across the Siverskyi Donets River to isolate the battlefield and improve their chances of taking the town. More glide bomb strikes and manpower are concentrated on Vovchansk than other areas. Capturing Vovchansk would provide a strategic staging ground for further operations. The next phase could aim to expand the buffer zone along the border or bring Kharkiv City within artillery range. Advancing from Vovchansk might also threaten Ukrainian forces defending Kupyansk.
Russian forces continued their offensive near Lyptsi without changing the frontline. Russian milbloggers claimed advances near Lukyantsi and between Hlyboke and Lukyantsi, as well as into the dacha area north of Lyptsi. These claims remain unconfirmed. Ukrainian forces are attempting to push back Russian troops near Hlyboke, while the Russian MoD reported repelling Ukrainian counterattacks near Lyptsi. Russian operations also continued near Zelene and between Lukyantsi and Vesele.
Russian forces continued offensive operations near and within Vovchansk, but the frontline remained unchanged. The Russian Ministry of Defense claimed they seized Starytsa, though only northeastern Starytsa activity is confirmed. Russian milbloggers reported marginal advances in Vovchansk and entry into Zybyne, but these claims lack confirmation. A Ukrainian soldier noted that Russian forces have up to a battalion in northern Vovchansk. Russian forces repelled Ukrainian counterattacks near Tykhe and Vovchansk and continued operations near Buhruvatka.
Russian forces continued ground attacks along the Kupyansk-Svatove-Kreminna line without confirmed changes to the frontline. A Russian milblogger claimed advances near Krokhmalne and Berestove, but these are unconfirmed. Russian assaults occurred near Synkivka, Ivanivka, Berestove, Myasozharivka, Makiivka, Novosadove, Torske, Bilohorivka, and Hryhorivka. Ukrainian forces reportedly counterattacked near Synkivka, Novosadove, Terny, and Dibrova, achieving partial success in some areas.
Russian forces continued their offensive in the Siversk direction, northeast of Bakhmut, with several assaults near Rozdolivka, south of Siversk.
Russian forces are intensifying their efforts to seize Chasiv Yar, launching multiple mechanized assaults with tanks and infantry vehicles. Despite these attacks, they have not made significant gains, as Ukrainian forces have successfully destroyed at least 20 Russian armored vehicles. The seizure of Chasiv Yar would give Russia a strategic position for further offensives in Donetsk Oblast. President Zelensky has thanked Ukrainian troops for their defense efforts in the area. The recent offensive in northern Kharkiv Oblast, launched by Russian forces on May 10, aims to divert Ukrainian resources from eastern Ukraine, thereby weakening defenses around Chasiv Yar. This strategy has led to increased attacks near Chasiv Yar, exploiting the redeployment of Ukrainian brigades from Chasiv Yar to Vovchansk. Russian forces hope to stretch Ukrainian defenses across a wide front and achieve significant advances before US aid arrives in June and July 2024.
Russian forces continued their offensive near Chasiv Yar. Russian milbloggers claimed that Russian forces briefly advanced into the Novyi Microraion in eastern Chasiv Yar before retreating. They also reported advances near Kalynove and in the Stupky-Holubovskyi-2 nature reserve. Russian assaults continued near the Kanal Microraion, Ivanivske, Klishchiivka, Andriivka, and Kurdyumivka.
Russian forces made marginal advances near Avdiivka amid ongoing offensives. Geolocated footage from May 17-18 shows advances east of Yasnobrodivka and southwest of Solovyove. A Ukrainian unit near Avdiivka repelled a Russian armored assault in Solovyove. Russian milbloggers reported advances near Yasnobrodivka and claimed most of Netaylove is under Russian control. They also mentioned progress near Novooleksandrivka, though this is unconfirmed. Russian assaults continued northwest of Avdiivka near Kalynove, Arkhanhelske, Yevhenivka, Sokil, Solovyove, and Novoselivka Persha; west near Umanske; and southwest near Nevelske.
Russian forces continued offensive operations west and southwest of Donetsk City without confirmed changes to the frontline. Russian milbloggers claimed advances in and around Krasnohorivka, with ongoing fighting reported in the northeastern part of the settlement. Assaults continued near Heorhiivka, Paraskoviivka, Novomykhailivka, Kostyantynivka, and Vodyane. Russian forces are operating near Krasnohorivka and are active southwest of Donetsk City towards Yelyzavetivka.
Russian forces continued ground assaults in the Donetsk-Zaporizhia Oblast border area, targeting areas south of Velyka Novosilka near Urozhaine and Staromayorske, and southeast near Novomaiorske and Volodymyrivka.
Russian forces recently advanced southeast of Hulyaipole, north of Marfopil, as shown in geolocated footage from May 17. In Robotyne, Russian forces also made advances amid continued fighting, with footage showing progress in northern Robotyne. Positional battles continued northwest of Verbove and near Mala Tokmachka.
Positional fighting continued on the east bank of Kherson Oblast near Krynky.
Ukrainian Civilian Victims Of War
The casualty count of Ukrainian civilians in the past 24 hours:
DEATHS: 4 INJURIES: 9
- Russian forces struck a residential area in Kharkiv, injuring six people, including two children. Recent offensive operations in northern Kharkiv Oblast have destroyed several houses. Among the injured are two children, aged 13 and 16.
- Russian forces attacked a car with civilians evacuating from Vovchansk in Kharkiv Oblast, killing two people and injuring two others.
- Russian attacks on the villages of Tiahynka and Stanislav in Kherson Oblast killed two people and wounded another. In Tiahynka, a 67-year-old man was killed by tank fire. In Stanislav, a drone strike killed one man and wounded a woman.
Ukraine News
Russian, with Ukrainian forces shooting down the cruise missiles. Russian sources claimed Iskander missiles hit a military warehouse in Odesa. Additionally, 13 Shahed-136/131 drones launched overnight were intercepted over several oblasts, though some drones damaged energy infrastructure in Poltava. Another ballistic missile strike on Odesa occurred later.
Ukrainian Mobilization and Defense Industrial Base
Zelensky highlighted the need to address Ukraine’s manpower challenges to contest Russian offensives effectively. Ukraine is forming new brigades but needs to fully staff them. Consistent rotations for frontline units are crucial for morale. Stabilizing the frontline and staffing units adequately are necessary steps before launching future counteroffensives. Addressing these manpower issues is critical for Ukraine to regain the initiative from Russian forces.
Ukraine’s new mobilization law, effective May 18, aims to address manpower constraints by lowering the mobilization age from 27 to 25. Adopted on April 11 and signed by President Zelensky on April 16, the law is designed to stabilize Ukraine’s force generation. Officials believe this will strengthen Ukraine’s defense and support future counteroffensive operations, especially with additional US military assistance.
A man stabbed a military enlistment official in Synelnykove, Dnipropetrovsk Oblast, injuring the official’s arm. The police arrested the attacker and launched an investigation. Ukraine has been ramping up mobilization efforts due to a critical personnel shortage.
Russia News
Mikhail Zvinchuk, founder of the Kremlin-linked Rybar Telegram channel, publicly criticized the Russian Ministry of Defense (MoD) in an interview with RTVi. He discussed the replacement of former Defense Minister Sergei Shoigu and corruption within the MoD. Zvinchuk urged new Defense Minister Andrei Belousov to implement positive changes within three months. He speculated that Belousov would replace former Deputy Defense Minister Ruslan Tsalikov, but Deputy Ministers Tatyana Shevtsova and Viktor Goremykin will remain. Zvinchuk also claimed Deputy Defense Minister Yunus-Bek Yevkurov will lead the MoD’s Africa Corps, with General Sergei Kuralenko replacing him.
If the Kremlin allows prominent Russian milbloggers to criticize the Ministry of Defense (MoD) more freely, it could increase public pressure for reforms to aid Russia’s war effort in Ukraine. Mikhail Zvinchuk, a noted milblogger awarded by the MoD and President Putin, may be testing the Kremlin’s response to criticism following the replacement of former Defense Minister Shoigu with Belousov. This controlled criticism could establish acceptable limits for public dissent and lead to bureaucratic reforms. These changes, along with efforts to mobilize the Russian economy and defense industry, could enhance Russia’s military effectiveness in Ukraine.
Russian Mobilization and Defense Industrial Base
The BBC News Russian Service reported that Russian military authorities in Kazakhstan detained a Russian soldier for desertion on April 23, the first such case in Kazakhstan. The soldier, who signed a contract before the 2022 invasion of Ukraine, fled to Kazakhstan in June 2023 to avoid fighting. He is being held at a Russian military unit in Priozersk. Previously, Russian authorities detained deserters in Armenia in December 2023 and April 2024.
Russian drone manufacturer Unmanned Systems announced that their modernized Supercam S350M reconnaissance drone is now more resistant to Ukrainian electronic warfare. The updated drone is lighter, has longer flight time, more frequency channels, and improved optical-electronic systems.
Russian Narratives and Propaganda
Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov claimed on May 18 that Western military support for Ukraine shows an unwillingness to negotiate, despite Russia’s own reluctance for meaningful talks. He accused the West of preparing for war against Russia and undermined Ukraine’s sovereignty by implying the West is the main negotiating party. Lavrov’s statements aim to distract from Russia’s stance and prepare for a prolonged conflict, as indicated by senior Kremlin officials.
Pro-Kremlin sources continue to discredit the Ukrainian government, especially regarding the new mobilization law effective May 18. They allege Ukrainian law enforcement is violently mobilizing citizens and predict mass mobilization raids starting May 20. These claims coincide with the date Zelensky’s presidential term would have ended if not for the invasion, but Ukraine’s constitution allows for term extensions under martial law.
Source Materials
Institute for the Study of War – understandingwar.org
The Kyiv Independent – kyivindependent.com
Kyiv Post – kyivpo st.com