Summary of the Day:
Russian forces launched significant mechanized assaults near Kurakhove in western Donetsk Oblast, successfully advancing with armored vehicles along Zaporizkyi Street and in northern Dalne. The Ukrainian brigade reported destroying several Russian tanks and infantry fighting vehicles during these engagements, but Russian forces maintained their advance.
In a concerning development, an explosion damaged the Ternivska Dam at the Kurakhivske Reservoir. While Ukrainian officials report minimal flooding impact on nearby settlements, the dam continues to leak, with 15 million cubic meters of water already spilled. Both sides deny responsibility for the damage.
Russian forces have concentrated approximately 50,000 troops in Kursk Oblast, including 8,000-10,000 North Korean personnel, preparing for a potential counteroffensive. Ukrainian officials also warn of imminent intensified Russian assaults in Zaporizhia Oblast, particularly near Kamyanske, Hulyaipole, and Robotyne, where Russian forces have increased air strikes by 30-40% in recent weeks.
Meanwhile, Russia appears to be pursuing closer military ties with China, contradicting Putin’s public stance against forming security blocs. Russian officials announced openness to joint weapons development with China while continuing domestic military expansion through coerced conscription efforts.
Picture of the Day:
Ukrainian medics from the Azov Brigade transfer a wounded Ukrainian soldier by ambulance to a stabilization point in the direction of Toretsk, Donetsk Oblast. (Diego Herrera Carcedo/Anadolu via Getty Images)
Beyond Ukraine – The March Towards World War
The appointment of Fox News host and former Army National Guard captain Pete Hegseth as incoming Defense Secretary, along with Marco Rubio as Secretary of State and Michael Waltz as National Security Advisor, signals a potential dramatic shift in U.S. foreign policy under President-elect Trump that could significantly impact global stability. Hegseth, who has previously downplayed Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, defended Trump’s praise of Putin, and questioned U.S. commitments to NATO, lacks high-level military leadership experience according to Pentagon officials and defense experts. Similarly concerning for world peace, Waltz has pivoted from his strong 2022 advocacy for Ukrainian military aid and warnings about Putin threatening NATO allies to recently calling for a “reassessment” of U.S. aims in Ukraine while prioritizing China over confronting Russia. The gravity of these policy shifts is underscored by complex developments in U.S.-Russia relations, including Russian state media’s provocative coverage of Melania Trump on the strictly regulated Channel Russia 1 following Trump’s victory, Putin’s public congratulations and readiness for discussions at the Valdai forum, and disputed reports of a Trump-Putin call regarding Ukraine war escalation – all of which raise serious questions about potential U.S.-Russia deals that could fundamentally alter the balance of power in Europe’s ongoing conflict and Ukraine’s ability to resist Russian aggression.
A major political shift is emerging in Hungary that could affect European unity and relations with Russia. Viktor Orban, a key ally of Russian interests within the European Union, faces his first serious challenge to his 14-year rule from Peter Magyar’s opposition Tisza party, which leads in recent polls. Magyar’s rise could significantly alter Hungary’s current stance of blocking or delaying EU support for Ukraine and resisting sanctions against Russia. The potential leadership change in Hungary comes at a crucial time as NATO and the EU grapple with maintaining a united front against Russian aggression. This political upheaval in Hungary, combined with the country’s strategic position in Central Europe, could reshape regional alliances and impact international efforts to maintain European stability.
Moldova’s escalating tensions with Russia represent a worrying expansion of regional instability beyond Ukraine’s borders. The diplomatic protest to Russia’s ambassador highlights two dangerous developments: Russia’s alleged election interference in a sovereign European nation and the violation of Moldovan airspace by Russian military drones. The discovery of three Russian drones in Moldova’s Căușeni, Rîșcani, and Florești districts, following attacks on Ukraine, signals potential widening of the conflict zone in Eastern Europe. Russia’s apparent attempt to influence Moldova’s presidential election through funding pro-Russian candidate Alexandr Stoianoglo, though unsuccessful, demonstrates ongoing efforts to expand its sphere of influence, threatening democratic stability in the region and raising concerns about broader European security.
Concerning developments for global stability emerged as Russian officials contradicted President Putin’s public stance against security blocs. High-ranking Russian officials revealed potential military alignments that could increase global tensions. Security Council Secretary Sergei Shoigu’s meeting with Chinese Foreign Minister Wang Yi highlighted their united positions in major international organizations, while Russia’s openness to joint weapons development with China, announced by Military-Technical Cooperation Deputy Director Mikhail Babish, signals a potential military partnership. Most worryingly, Defense Minister Andrei Belousov’s push for a “multipolar world” against the “collective West” suggests a growing risk of global division into opposing camps, despite BRICS’ apparent reluctance to form such alliances. These developments could escalate international tensions and undermine efforts for peaceful global cooperation.
Russian interference in Romania’s upcoming presidential elections signals a concerning expansion of Kremlin influence beyond Ukraine, targeting a key NATO and EU member state. The reported manipulation through social media and Russian-funded organizations threatens democratic stability in Eastern Europe. This development, coupled with potential plans by US President-Elect Trump to freeze Ukraine’s NATO membership for 20 years, suggests a broader strategy to weaken NATO’s eastern flank and potentially destabilize regional security arrangements. The outcome of Romania’s November 24 election could significantly impact the balance of power in a region already destabilized by Russia’s aggressive foreign policy.
The Path to Peace
Senator Marco Rubio, reportedly being considered for Secretary of State in Donald Trump’s potential administration, has expressed support for ending the war in Ukraine through negotiations, with Finnish President Alexander Stubb warning that Trump’s promise to end the Ukraine-Russia war should be taken seriously following their November 11 conversation where Trump indicated he intends to pursue peace negotiations between his election and January 2025 inauguration – including his claim to end the war “in 24 hours” potentially involving Ukraine ceding territory to Russia. As a candidate for the position that would significantly influence US foreign policy, Rubio’s stance suggests he would favor a peace settlement even if terms are not entirely favorable to Ukraine, as he has characterized current US aid as “funding a stalemate,” voted against recent Ukraine aid, and believes the conflict must end through negotiation to prevent Ukraine from being “set back 100 years,” though any final peace terms would ultimately need agreement from both Kyiv and Moscow.
Situation On The Land, Sea, and Air in Ukraine
Ukrainian Operations in the Russian Federation – Initiative None
Russian forces launched a major attack near Korenevo in Ukraine’s Kursk Oblast. The assault involved multiple waves of mechanized forces, with Russians deploying 29 armored vehicles near Novoivanovka. Ukrainian forces reported destroying 18 of these vehicles while defending their positions. Russian forces made advances near several settlements including Plekhovo, Pogrebki, and potentially Darino and Maryevka, though some claims remain unconfirmed. Active fighting continues around Darino, Nikolaevo-Darino, Novoivanovka, Leonidovo, Orlovka, and Malaya Loknya.
Russia has assembled approximately 50,000 troops in Kursk Oblast, including 8,000-11,000 North Korean soldiers, with Ukrainian officials noting similar troop numbers in the region since September 2024, consisting of about 35,000 personnel from Russia’s Northern Grouping of Forces, while additional Russian forces being redeployed appear to be primarily replacing losses rather than significantly expanding the force. Russian forces are currently attempting to establish positions near the settlements of Novoivanovka and Zeleny Shlyakh, located about 15 kilometers from Ukrainian-held Sudzha and 10 kilometers north of the Ukrainian border, preparing for what appears to be a major offensive potentially against Ukrainian forces in Russian territory before late January 2025, with Ukrainian officials believing Russia may attempt to push through to Ukraine’s Sumy Oblast, though while Ukrainian forces currently hold positions in parts of Kursk Oblast and have shifted from offensive to defensive operations in the area, they face challenges from Russian glide bombs and drone attacks on supply routes in a situation that remains tense but relatively stable.
A Ukrainian drone strike hit an oil depot near Stary Oskol in Russia’s Belgorod region, causing a tank to catch fire that local firefighters and ten fire crews quickly extinguished with no reported injuries or casualties, according to regional Governor Vyacheslav Gladkov, with the area containing two major facilities – Oskolnaftopostachannia and the Gubkinsky oil depot, the latter having been targeted previously in March and August. While Ukrainian officials haven’t confirmed involvement in this attack, which is part of Ukraine’s ongoing strategy to target Russia’s oil infrastructure using drones particularly since Western allies haven’t approved the use of long-range missiles for such strikes, Russian officials claim their air defense systems intercepted 13 Ukrainian drones across the Belgorod, Bryansk, and Kursk regions, as Ukraine recently created its Unmanned Systems Forces and plans to produce 1 million drones this year to supplement those provided by foreign partners, with the facility reportedly linked to supplying fuel to Russian military forces.
A Russian Mi-24 helicopter equipped with electronic warfare systems was destroyed at Klin 5 Airfield in Moscow Oblast on November 9-10. While Ukraine’s military intelligence (GUR) reported the helicopter was destroyed by fire, Russia’s FSB claimed they stopped a Ukrainian plot to hijack the aircraft. Ukrainian officials denied the FSB’s version, calling it disinformation.
Kharkiv Front – Initiative Russia
Russian forces attacked near Vovchansk and Lyptsi, north of Kharkiv City but failed to make any advances. Ukrainian officials report the situation near Lyptsi and Hlyboke remains stable.
Luhansk Front – Initiative Russia
Russian forces attacked along the Kupyansk-Svatove-Kreminna line focusing on multiple settlements including Terny, Kindrashivka, Kolisnykivka, Kruhlyakivka, Zahryzove, Hrekivka, Novomykhailivka, Novoplatonivka, Nevske, Torske, and Serebryanka. While Russian sources claimed advances near Terny, these remain unconfirmed. Ukrainian officials report that Russian forces in this area are conducting primarily infantry attacks, using military equipment sparingly.
Donetsk Front – Initiative Russia
Siversk
Russian forces launched attacks near Vyimka, southeast of Siversk but failed to gain ground. A Russian military blogger reported that Russian forces defended against Ukrainian counterattacks in eastern Bilohorivka, located northeast of Siversk.
Chasiv Yar
Russian forces attacked near Chasiv Yar with no confirmed advances. While a Russian military blogger claimed progress in Stupochky, south of Chasiv Yar, evidence shows Russian forces remain about 2.5 kilometers from the settlement. Russian drone units continue to operate in the area.
Toretsk
Russian forces advanced in Toretsk, gaining ground along Dzerzhynskoho Street in the east and Druzhby Street in the center. They also attacked near Shcherbynivka, west of Toretsk with Russian drone units active in the area.
Pokrovsk
Russian forces reportedly advanced near Pokrovsk attacking multiple settlements including Promin, Myrolyubivka, Lysivka, Selydove, Hryhorivka, Krutyi Yar, Pustynka, Petrivka, and Novooleksiivka. While Russian sources claimed gains near Petrivka, Yurivka, and Novooleksiivka, these advances remain unconfirmed. Ukrainian forces report that their artillery and drone strikes have forced Russian troops to move mainly on foot in small groups.
West of Donetsk City
Russian forces have launched multiple attacks around Kurakhove and Vuhledar, including two significant mechanized assaults near Kurakhove in western Donetsk Oblast – one in northeastern Kurakhove where forces advanced along Zaporizkyi Street using 12 armored vehicles, with Ukrainian forces reporting the destruction of several tanks and infantry vehicles during the attack, and a second assault in northern Dalne, south of Kurakhove, where Russian forces advanced with nine armored vehicles. Russian forces are also conducting attacks near Katerynivka and Antonivka, northeast of Vuhledar, aiming to straighten their frontline in western Donetsk Oblast, with offensive operations targeting multiple settlements including Novodmytrivka, Sontsivka, Zorya, Novoselydivka, Voznesenka, Kreminna Balka, Maksymilyanivka, Dalne, Illinka, Antonivka, Katerynivka, and Trudove, while claiming weather conditions aren’t slowing their advances.
On November 11, an explosion damaged the Ternivska Dam at the Kurakhivske Reservoir, south of Stary Terny, northwest of Kurakhove. According to Ukrainian officials Roman Padun and Vadym Filashkin, while 15 million cubic meters of water spilled from the reservoir, no nearby homes or settlements along the Vovcha River were affected by flooding. The dam has reportedly been a target of Russian forces for three months. While both sides blame each other for the damage, the impact appears minimal, and the source of the explosion remains unclear.
Zaporizhia Front – Initiative Russia
Ukrainian military officials report that Russian forces may soon increase attacks in Zaporizhia Oblast, with Colonel Vladyslav Voloshyn noting that Russian forces are positioning assault groups near Kamyanske, Hulyaipole, and Robotyne while targeting the town of Orikhiv to gain control of key logistics routes and intensifying attacks in the Hulyaipole sector and near Vremivka, Rivnopillia, and Velyka Novosilka – an area that was previously the focus of Ukraine’s southern counteroffensive in 2023 which liberated Robotyne. Russian forces are currently conducting daily infantry assaults with small groups of 10-20 personnel, resuming attacks near Kamyanske and the Velyka Novosilka area after almost a year of inactivity, with a 30-40% increase in air strikes across southern Ukraine over the past few weeks, while also recently increasing attacks on Zaporizhzhia’s civilian infrastructure using guided aerial bombs.
Zaporizhia-Donetsk Border Area
Russian forces reportedly advanced near the Donetsk-Zaporizhia border area. While Russian sources claimed to have captured the settlements of Rivnopil and Makarivka near Velyka Novosilka, some military bloggers disputed these claims as premature. Russian forces were confirmed to be conducting offensive operations around Makarivka, Novodarivka, and Rivnopil, with additional activity reported near Hulyaipole. Ukrainian officials reported that Russian forces were actively attacking in the Vremivka area using infantry supported by armor and artillery.
Zaporizhia Line
Russian forces reportedly advanced near Marfopil, southeast of Hulyaipole, with elements of the 38th Motorized Rifle Brigade operating in the Polohy area. However, these claimed advances have not been independently verified.
Russian forces continued attacks near Novoandriivka, north of Robotyne in western Zaporizhia Oblast. A Russian official claimed Ukraine plans to strike the Vasylivka dam, though this claim has not been corroborated by other sources.
Kherson (Dnipro River) Front – Initiative Russia
Fighting continued along the eastern bank of the Dnipro River in Kherson Oblast with Russian reserve forces present in the area. No changes to the front line were confirmed.
Ukraine News
Russia launched a major aerial attack against Ukraine overnight, using 110 drones and multiple missiles. The strikes targeted multiple regions, including Kharkiv City and Zaporizhzhia City’s residential areas. Ukrainian forces shot down 46 drones across ten regions, while 60 drones were reportedly disabled by electronic warfare. Two drones diverted toward Belarus. The attacks included S-300 missiles from Belgorod, cruise missiles from Kursk targeting Chernihiv, and guided bombs aimed at Sumy and Kharkiv regions.
Ukraine’s State Film Agency has protested the inclusion of “Deaf Lovers,” a Russian film about a romance between a Ukrainian refugee and a Russian man, at the Tallinn Black Nights Film Festival. The agency argues that the film’s romantic portrayal misrepresents the reality of Ukrainian women’s wartime experiences of torture and sexual violence by Russian forces. While the film has been removed from the festival’s “Standing with Ukraine” section, it remains in the main program. This controversy follows similar disputes over Russian films at international festivals, including “Russians at War,” which led to Ukrainian Security Service investigations of its director, Anastasia Trofimova, for allegedly legitimizing Russian aggression.
Ukraine Mobilization and Defense Industrial Base
The first Ukrainian citizens have joined the Ukrainian Legion in Poland, signing contracts with the Ukrainian Armed Forces through a volunteer unit launched in July with its first recruitment center in Lublin, allowing Ukrainian men living abroad to join the military while maintaining the right to return to Poland after service and legal residence, with volunteers undergoing a 35-day basic training at Polish military facilities by Polish Armed Forces, plus options for additional specialized training at NATO bases in Europe. The recruitment center has received approximately 700 applications from Ukrainians across Europe, helping Ukraine address military staffing needs and bolster its forces as the war enters its third year while working around martial law restrictions that prevent military-age men from leaving Ukraine, providing a path for some of the 6.7 million Ukrainians who fled the country during the war to join their country’s defense.
Ukraine plans to allocate Hr 55 billion ($1.3 billion) for weapons production in its 2025 budget, according to Strategic Industries Minister Herman Smetanin. This represents an increase of Hr 3.5 billion ($84.4 million) from 2024. The budget includes Hr 54.55 billion for defense technology development and production capacity, plus Hr 500 million for a defense company loan program. The total proposed defense spending for 2025 is Hr 2.2 trillion ($53 billion), representing 26.3% of Ukraine’s GDP. The budget, which passed its first parliamentary reading on October 31, is expected to receive a final vote by December 1.
Ukraine’s Allies
The G7 nations have agreed to a $50 billion loan package for Ukraine, backed by frozen Russian assets. The United States will provide $20 billion, with European Union nations contributing $19.4 billion. Canada, Japan, and the UK will provide the remaining funds with $3.7 billion, $3.07 billion, and $2.9 billion respectively. British Prime Minister Keir Starmer plans to press President Biden about releasing the U.S. portion during next week’s G20 summit in Brazil. Starmer and French President Macron have already pledged continued support for Ukraine and plan to meet with Polish Prime Minister Tusk to secure long-term Western aid commitments.
Former UK Prime Minister Boris Johnson has warned that British troops may need to deploy to Ukraine if U.S. support diminishes under potential Trump leadership. Johnson emphasized that reduced Western support could embolden Russia, threatening collective security. While acknowledging Trump’s previous crucial military aid, including Javelin missiles that helped defend Kyiv, Johnson expressed concern about divided Republican views on Ukraine support. Johnson, who maintains strong pro-Ukraine advocacy since his 2022 resignation, stressed the critical importance of continuing Western military assistance.
German Foreign Minister Annalena Baerbock has warned that Putin could exploit the upcoming US presidential transition period to gain advantages in Ukraine. She urged immediate increased European aid to Kyiv, emphasizing “We don’t have time to wait until spring.” The warning comes as President-Elect Trump has pledged to reduce US military support to Ukraine and seeks to quickly end the conflict. The situation is further complicated by political uncertainty in Germany following the collapse of Chancellor Olaf Scholz’s coalition government.
French Foreign Minister Jean-Noel Barrot has pledged France’s commitment to support Ukraine regardless of changes in US leadership, while expressing concern about Elon Musk’s potential influence on American democracy. Speaking at the Paris Peace Forum, Barrot emphasized France’s readiness to work with any US administration while maintaining support for Ukraine against Russian aggression. He specifically referenced Russian war crimes in Bucha, where 458 civilians including nine children were killed, along with atrocities in Irpin, Izium, Mariupol, and Olenivka, stressing that “there will be no peace without justice.” His comments come amid concerns about Musk’s significant financial support for Republican campaigns and speculated communications with Putin.
Life in Russian Occupied Ukraine
According to Atesh partisan reports, Russia is endangering children in occupied Sevastopol, Crimea, by conducting military exercises for Yunarmiya – a Russian military youth organization that recruits children as young as 8 years old – at the Kozachyi training ground. The partisans claim Russian forces are deliberately using these children as “human shields” to protect their soldiers and mercenaries from potential Ukrainian strikes. This activity occurs at the same facility where foreign mercenaries from Africa and Cuba are being trained.
Russia News
The near-shutdown of Russia’s flagship Arctic LNG 2 project represents a significant victory for Western sanctions strategy against Moscow’s war machine. The project’s production collapse – dropping over 90% to just 0.4 million cubic meters daily – deals a heavy blow to Russia’s ability to fund its Ukraine invasion through energy exports. This development follows coordinated U.S. sanctions in August and September 2023, targeting a project that was meant to generate billions in revenue for Russia’s war chest. The effectiveness of these energy sector sanctions demonstrates the West’s growing success in targeting Russia’s key revenue streams, potentially limiting Moscow’s ability to sustain its military operations in Ukraine. Russia’s reported attempt to expand its “ghost fleet” of tankers to LNG exports suggests growing desperation to evade these crippling restrictions.
Putin’s strategic avoidance of the G20 summit in Brazil highlights the deepening global divide over Russia’s actions in Ukraine, particularly the deportation of Ukrainian children which led to his ICC arrest warrant. His decision to send Foreign Minister Lavrov to Rio de Janeiro (November 18-19) undermines crucial international dialogue at a critical time for world peace. Putin’s recent unpunished visit to Mongolia, despite its ICC obligations, reveals weakening international law enforcement and sets a concerning precedent for global accountability. This diplomatic maneuvering threatens the effectiveness of international institutions designed to maintain world order and protect human rights, while his absence from the G20 further reduces opportunities for meaningful peace negotiations among world leaders.
Following Donald Trump’s presidential victory, Russian state media channel Russia 1 aired a provocative segment featuring explicit modeling photos of Melania Trump during their prime-time show “60 Minutes.” This unusual coverage on Kremlin-controlled television, where content is strictly regulated, comes amid significant developments in U.S.-Russia relations. While Putin publicly congratulated Trump and expressed readiness for discussions at the Valdai forum, the Kremlin denied reports of a phone call where Trump allegedly warned Putin against escalating the Ukraine war. The timing of this state media coverage raises questions about Moscow’s messaging as concerns grow about potential U.S.-Russia deals that could impact Ukraine’s future.
Russian War Losses (Today/Total)
| Troops +1770
714380 |
Tanks +24
9300 |
Artillery +56
20408 |
Arm. VEH +49
18896 |
Aircraft
369 |
Heli
329 |
Ships
28 |
Russia Mobilization and Defense Industrial Base
Russian commanders in the 80th Tank Regiment are reportedly forcing conscripts to sign military service contracts with the Defense Ministry, according to Mobilization News. This appears to be part of ongoing unofficial mobilization efforts.
Rostec announced that it delivered new Su-35S and Su-57 fighter jets to the Russian military through its United Aircraft Corporation division.
Source Material
Institute for the Study of War – understandingwar.org
The Kyiv Independent – kyivindependent.com
Kyiv Post – kyivpost.com