Summary of the day: Russian forces launched an offensive operation along the northern Kharkiv Oblast near the Russian-Ukrainian border, achieving tactically significant advances. This operation appears to be part of a strategy to draw Ukrainian resources away from other critical sectors in eastern Ukraine. While the offensive aims to push Ukrainian forces back from the border with Belgorod Oblast and gain artillery range of Kharkiv City, it is not indicative of a larger plan to encircle and seize Kharkiv City at this time. Concurrently, other Russian advances were reported near Donetsk City and in the Donetsk-Zaporizhia Oblast border area. Amid these developments, the U.S. approved significant military assistance for Ukraine, and Ukrainian forces struck a Russian oil refinery in Kaluga Oblast with a drone.
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Picture Of The Day
A young girl wears face paint in the colors of the Ukrainian flag as people line the streets to pay their respects to a fallen soldier, Nazar Hryntsevych “Grenka”, on May 10, 2024, in Vinnytsia. During his lifetime, Hryntsevych was the youngest defender of Mariupol and the Azovstal steel plant. He survived captivity and died at the age of 21. (Kostiantyn Liberov /Libkos/Getty Images)
Beyond Ukraine – March Towards World War
Russia is attempting to enforce its federal law in NATO countries, with Russian authorities investigating an act of vandalism at a Soviet military monument in Helsinki, Finland. This action reflects Russia’s broader strategy of asserting legal control beyond its borders, often under the pretext of protecting Soviet heritage.
Russian officials are using threatening rhetoric to deter Western military support for Ukraine. Dmitry Medvedev, Russian Security Council Chairperson, responded to UK comments on weapon provisions with threats of using “special ammunition” and indicated readiness for nuclear confrontation. Such statements are part of Russia’s psychological tactics to influence Western policies. In a related vein, accusations against NATO of escalating the Ukraine conflict were made at an OSCE meeting, although assessments suggest that Russia is unlikely to resort to nuclear action despite its aggressive posturing.
The New York Times reported on May 10 that satellite imagery from March 2023 shows construction of facilities in Asipovichy, Belarus, that could potentially store Russian nuclear warheads. These facilities reportedly include air defense systems, a security checkpoint, a triple fence, and an underground bunker—features characteristic of Russian nuclear storage sites. The Federation of American Scientists also noted in March 2024 that these structures suggest the development of a nuclear warhead storage site. Despite these developments, the Institute for the Study of War assesses that nuclear escalation by Russia or Belarus remains unlikely.
Situation On The Land, Sea, and Air in Ukraine
US Assistant Secretary of Defense for Space Policy, John Plumb, announced that US defense officials have collaborated with SpaceX to prevent the unauthorized use of Starlink internet terminals by the Russian military in Ukraine. Despite successful countermeasures, Plumb warned that Russia might continue trying to exploit Starlink and other commercial communication systems. This announcement follows reports from March 2024 suggesting that Russian forces had been using Starlink terminals in Ukraine.
President Zelensky announced ongoing heavy fighting along the front line, including a new Russian offensive in Kharkiv Oblast. Despite reports of Russian advances, no ground has been lost according to Kharkiv Oblast Governor Syniehubov. Zelensky pledged to reinforce military positions in Kharkiv and Chasiv Yar, Donetsk Oblast, and deploy additional troops to thwart Russian plans. Khortytsia group spokesperson Voloshyn described the increased Russian activity as a distraction tactic, with continued attempts to break through in Donetsk and Luhansk oblasts.
On May 9, Russian sources reported that Ukrainian forces launched an ATACMS missile strike on targets in occupied Mariupol, Donetsk Oblast. Ukrainian officials have yet to confirm or comment on these claims, and their accuracy remains unverified by independent sources.
Kharkiv Front – Initiative Russia
Luhansk Front – Initiative Russia
Donetsk Front – Initiative Russia
Zaporizhia Front – Initiative Russia
Kherson (Dnipro River) Front – Initiative None
Russian forces initiated an offensive operation in northern Kharkiv Oblast along the Russian-Ukrainian border, achieving significant gains. This operation, primarily aimed at drawing Ukrainian forces away from key fronts in eastern Ukraine, included targeted military efforts north and northeast of Kharkiv City, particularly near Lyptsi and Vovchansk. Despite intense battles and Ukrainian resistance, Russian troops managed to make tactical advancements, supported by intensified airstrikes and shelling in the region. The Ukrainian Defense Ministry reported that during these operations, Russian forces attempted a breakthrough near Kharkiv, intensifying attacks and using airstrikes and artillery in the surrounding areas, including Vovchansk, which is close to the Russian border. Despite this escalation, Kharkiv Oblast Governor Oleh Syniehubov indicated that the current Russian force levels north of Kharkiv are only capable of provocations rather than a full-scale threat. The attack was repelled, with ongoing skirmishes reported and reserve units deployed to reinforce defenses. Syniehubov reassured that the situation does not pose a direct threat to Kharkiv City itself. The conflict continues as both sides engage in heavy combat.
Russian forces have captured several areas north and northeast of Lyptsi, including Strilecha, Krasne, Pylna, and Borisivka, establishing a significant foothold. Confirmed reports and geolocated footage indicate Russian control in these regions, with ongoing heavy fighting noted by NASA data. Additional claims of Russian advances near Vovchansk and surrounding settlements suggest continued military activity, although some of these claims remain unverified.
Russian forces are intensifying their offensive in northern Kharkiv Oblast, aiming to push Ukrainian forces back and advance within artillery range of Kharkiv City. Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky has described this as “a new wave of offensive actions” toward Kharkiv. The Russian military, having amassed between 35,000 and 50,000 troops along Ukraine’s northern border, plans to establish a 10-kilometer buffer zone to facilitate closer artillery operations against Kharkiv. Currently, Russian troops are positioned about 30 kilometers from Kharkiv, and advancing to within 20 kilometers could enable routine artillery strikes on the city, setting the stage for a more significant offensive later.
Russian military efforts near Vovchansk and in the Lyptsi direction suggest strategic maneuvering rather than an immediate large-scale attack on Kharkiv City. The activities near Vovchansk, positioned strategically on the eastern side of the Siverskyi Donets River and Pechenizkyi Reservoir, may serve as diversionary tactics to redistribute Ukrainian defenses. This could either pull Ukrainian forces away from the north of Kharkiv or from other critical fronts like Kupyansk, easing pressure on Russian advances in these areas. In Lyptsi, Russian operations seem aimed at positioning forces within effective artillery range of Kharkiv, indicating a potential setup for more direct confrontations, rather than pursuing a high-risk frontal assault on the city.
Russian military operations along the Kharkiv border aim to strategically draw Ukrainian forces away from other critical areas in eastern Ukraine, particularly Donetsk and Luhansk oblasts. By causing Ukrainian forces to redirect resources to Kharkiv, Russia seeks to exploit manpower shortages and make tactical gains in regions like Avdiivka and Chasiv Yar. Ukrainian officials have responded by deploying additional units to Kharkiv, indicating that Russia’s strategy may be forcing Ukraine to stretch its defenses across a broader front. This tactic is intended to weaken Ukrainian defenses overall and create opportunities for Russian breakthroughs in the most vulnerable sectors.
The Institute for the Study of War (ISW) assesses that Russian forces would likely struggle to successfully seize Kharkiv City due to challenges including long drives across open terrain and insufficient combat-effective forces. Despite the presence of the 6th Combined Arms Army, Russian troops have failed to achieve significant tactical gains in previous assaults in the Kupyansk direction and lack the required personnel numbers. Current estimates suggest around 35,000 to 50,000 Russian troops are positioned near the Kharkiv international border, significantly less than the 300,000 additional personnel deemed necessary by Russian military analysts for such an ambitious operation. Given these constraints and the ongoing focus on seizing all of Luhansk and Donetsk oblasts, a large-scale offensive on Kharkiv City appears unlikely.
Russian forces have initiated offensive operations along the Ukrainian border to capitalize on the limited time before substantial Western military aid reaches Ukraine. Ukrainian officials anticipate potential Russian attempts to seize Kharkiv or Sumy cities in late May or early June 2024. The Institute for the Study of War (ISW) suggests that these offensives aim to make tactical gains across eastern Ukraine before the enhanced Ukrainian defenses, bolstered by Western aid, complicate Russian military efforts.
Russian forces are conducting offensive operations along the Kupyansk-Svatove-Kreminna line in Ukraine, focusing on multiple locations, including northeast and east of Kupyansk, northwest and west of Svatove, and around Kreminna, although no changes to the frontline have been reported. Ukrainian forces report that Russia is carrying out 10 to 20 daily infantry-heavy assaults in the Lyman direction, sometimes with armored vehicle support. Activity is noted in the Serebryanske forest area, mainly northwest of Svatove, with no recent assaults near Kreminna. Meanwhile, in northeastern Ukraine, specifically near the Serebryanske forest and in the Lyman area, Russian forces are attempting to break through. Nazar Voloshyn, spokesperson for the Khortytsia group of forces, stated that they’re targeting villages and shelling cities to gain better positions for further attacks. Despite Ukrainian defenders holding the line and pushing back Russian assaults, the situation remains tense as both sides engage in ongoing conflict, with the goal of cutting off strategic areas and advancing towards key cities.
The Ukrainian General Staff reported that Ukrainian forces successfully repelled Russian military assaults near Verkhnokamyanske and Rozdolivka, both located in the Siversk area northeast of Bakhmut.
Ukrainian Ground Forces Commander Lieutenant General Oleksandr Pavlyuk predicts a critical phase in the Ukraine war within the next two months, particularly highlighting recent Russian pressures in Chasiv Yar and Avdiivka. In a recent interview, Pavlyuk noted Russia’s push to deploy all combat-ready resources to the frontlines, anticipating a summer offensive focused on Luhansk and Donetsk, with possible major movements against Kharkiv and Sumy. He emphasized the challenges of gearing up 10 new Ukrainian brigades due to equipment shortages, despite adequate manpower. Pavlyuk also attributed recent Russian advances to their significant air and artillery superiority, stressing the strain on Ukraine’s defenses.
Lieutenant General Oleksandr Pavlyuk, during his interview, downplayed the strategic impact of a potential Russian capture of Chasiv Yar on the broader Ukrainian war effort, aligning with the Institute for the Study of War’s (ISW) view that while operationally significant, it wouldn’t be decisive. The ISW clarifies that while “operationally significant” moves can alter campaign dynamics, “tactically significant” ones merely shift frontlines without major strategic gains. Though losing Chasiv Yar would extend the Russian front and improve their position for further offensives, it would not critically undermine Ukraine’s eastern defenses, which are bolstered by a series of strongly fortified cities.
Despite continuous offensive operations by Russian forces near Chasiv Yar, the frontline remained unchanged. Russian forces engaged in attacks on the eastern and southeastern outskirts of Chasiv Yar. However, reports suggest the frontline is stagnant despite intense combat. Ukrainian commanders noted that Russian assaults included the use of motorcycles and all-terrain vehicles in the area. Additional Russian attacks occurred near multiple locations around Chasiv Yar, with various Russian military units actively participating. A Ukrainian S-300 air defense system was reportedly targeted by a drone near Oleksandro-Kalynove, indicating ongoing aggressive tactics by Russian forces.
Russian forces continued their offensive operations west of Avdiivka, with reports of advancements in Umanske and other nearby areas, though there were no confirmed changes to the frontline. Russian milbloggers claimed a significant presence in Umanske and potential control over the area, although these reports remain unconfirmed. Additionally, Russian troops reportedly made movements within Netaylove and south of Pervomaiske. Further assaults were reported northwest and west of Avdiivka in several localities, including Kalynove, Arkhanhelske, and Semenivka, among others.
Russian forces made slight advances west of Donetsk City, including minor progress south of Krasnohorivka. Russian troops are reportedly attempting to encircle Ukrainian positions in Krasnohorivka and have advanced in specific areas within the town. There are claims of Russian control over a brick factory in central Krasnohorivka, although these are unverified. Additionally, Russian military activity includes advances in a forest near Marinka and the use of motorcycles in assaults near Paraskoviivka. Further Russian attacks occurred west and southwest of Donetsk City, targeting several locations including Heorhiivka, Solodke, Vodyane, and Kostyantynivka.
Russian forces made slight territorial gains in the Donetsk-Zaporizhia Oblast border area. Geolocated footage from May 7 and May 10 confirmed minor advancements southwest and south of Urozhaine and Staromayorske, respectively, both south of Velyka Novosilka. Russian military bloggers reported that Russian forces have pushed west of Staromayorske, expanding their presence within the settlement’s boundaries.
Ongoing positional battles took place in western Zaporizhia Oblast, particularly near Robotyne and Verbove, without any confirmed changes to the frontline. Claims by a Russian milblogger of Russian forces advancing to Robotyne’s northern outskirts remain unverified. Russian military units are actively engaging near Robotyne, reportedly using motorcycles to approach Ukrainian positions.
Ongoing positional fighting occurred in east Kherson Oblast with no confirmed changes to the frontline. Engagements were reported near Krynky, the Antonivsky roadway bridge north of Oleshky, and around the Dnipro River delta islands near Kozachi Laheri. Ukrainian forces have successfully repelled periodic Russian attempts to land on Nestryha Island, maintaining control despite repeated efforts.
Ukrainian Civilian Victims Of War
The casualty count of Ukrainian civilians in the past 24 hours:
DEATHS: 6 INJURIES: 8
- Russian forces attacked nine settlements along the Sumy Oblast border, killing one civilian and injuring two others. The attacks, involving artillery shelling, targeted communities including Esman, where a 64-year-old woman was killed, and Seredyna-Buda, where another resident was injured. Additionally, artillery strikes hit Velyka Pysarivka, Khotin, Bilopillia, Znob-Novhorodske, Krasnopillia, Shalyhyne, and Hlukhiv, resulting in 139 explosions in the area.
- Russian troops attacked Chasiv Yar and the village of Yelyzavetivka in Donetsk Oblast, resulting in two deaths and two injuries. Chasiv Yar suffered damage to several houses, with two civilians wounded. Additionally, two civilians were killed in the attack on Yelyzavetivka in the Pokrovsk district.
- Russian attacks in the northern part of Kharkiv Oblast, bordering Ukraine and Russia, resulted in three civilian deaths and four injuries. The attack in Vovchansk killed two civilians and injured four others, while another civilian was killed in Cherkasky Tyshky village.
The aftermath of Russia’s attack on Donetsk Oblast
Ukraine News
Russian forces carried out drone and missile attacks across Ukraine. Ukrainian Air Force reported intercepting all 10 Shahed drones launched from Crimea and two missiles from Belgorod Oblast, with defenses engaging over Odesa, Mykolaiv, and Kherson oblasts. Additionally, missile strikes damaged homes in Kharkiv City, highlighting the challenges in quick threat detection due to proximity to the Russian border. A Russian cruise missile was also downed over Dnipropetrovsk Oblast. Meanwhile, Russia claimed to have hit a Ukrainian Patriot air defense system and radar in Zaporizhia Oblast, a claim that remains unverified.
Prime Minister Denys Shmyhal announced a budget allocation of over Hr 7.1 billion ($179.4 million) to repair Ukraine’s power grid following intensified missile and drone strikes by Russia on critical infrastructure. These attacks, occurring since March 22, have damaged or destroyed over 800 heating facilities. Ukraine’s power generation capacity has decreased by up to 8 gigawatt hours (GWh), requiring nearly $1 billion to compensate. Shmyhal emphasized ongoing repairs and stated that the allocated funds will be used for equipment purchases to restore the high-voltage grid and synchronize power systems with the European Union. Ukrenergo, Ukraine’s state-owned energy operator, announced increased energy use restrictions for businesses and industries due to a significant electricity shortage following the recent Russian attack.
Ukrainian Mobilization and Defense Industrial Base
Ukraine’s Ground Forces commander, Oleksandr Pavliuk, revealed plans to establish 10 new brigades to bolster defense against potential Russian offensives, particularly safeguarding Kyiv. This follows a recent Russian offensive in Kharkiv Oblast. Pavliuk stressed the importance of equipment, highlighting the need for artillery and armored vehicles. He emphasized Ukraine’s increased military capability since the war’s onset. Pavliuk urged mobilization efforts, acknowledging public concern but emphasizing the necessity of national resilience. Recent legislative changes include lowering the minimum conscription age and providing discharge rights for disabled and former captive soldiers.
Justice Minister Denys Maliuska stated in an interview with BBC Ukraine that Ukraine could enlist up to 20,000 convicts, helping alleviate prison overcrowding. The move follows a May 8 bill permitting certain offenders to serve in the military, aiming to bolster the Armed Forces amid the ongoing conflict with Russia. Deputy Justice Minister Olena Vysotska noted the potential release of 50,000 former convicts and 26,000 current prisoners. Maliuska supported the bill, leaving the selection of suitable candidates to the Armed Forces. While acknowledging parallels with Russia’s prisoner recruitment, he emphasized differing approaches. Maliuska highlighted benefits such as reducing prison overcrowding and addressing the surge in firearms-related crimes.
Ukraine’s Allies
U.S. President Joe Biden authorized up to $400 million in military aid for Ukraine through the Presidential Drawdown Authority Fund. The comprehensive assistance package includes air defense missiles for Patriot and NASAMS systems, Stinger anti-aircraft missiles, integration equipment for Western and Ukrainian military systems, HIMARS ammunition, various artillery rounds, Bradley infantry fighting vehicles, M113 armored personnel carriers, MRAP vehicles, TOW missiles, Javelin and AT-4 anti-armor missiles, HARM missiles, and additional weaponry and equipment.
Ukraine is poised to receive its first F-16 fighter jets “within weeks,” as reported by the Evening Standard, citing a high-ranking military source. Although the specific ally providing the planes remains undisclosed, the Netherlands, Denmark, Belgium, and Norway have committed to supplying dozens of fourth-generation jets to Ukraine. Denmark is set to send the initial batch this summer, with the Netherlands following in the autumn, while Belgium may follow suit later this year. This effort is part of an international coalition led by Denmark, the Netherlands, and the U.S., aimed at providing F-16s and training Ukrainian pilots.
Belgium will offer Ukraine an additional 9 million euros ($9.7 million) for energy infrastructure repair. This aid is part of Belgium’s new assistance package for Ukraine. Recent Russian missile and drone strikes have targeted key Ukrainian energy facilities, leading to severe damage, including the Trypillya plant, a major electricity source for several regions. The funds will support the United Nations Development Programme (UNDP) in providing equipment to restore damaged infrastructure.
Canada will contribute 76 million Canadian dollars ($56 million) to Germany’s air defense initiative for Ukraine. During a meeting with his German counterpart Boris Pistorius in Ottawa, Blair highlighted the importance of providing crucial air defense systems to protect Ukraine’s people.
Czechia pledges 750,000 euros (about $809,000) to enhance Ukraine’s forest monitoring systems. The initiative aims to align Ukraine’s forest monitoring capacity with EU standards. It includes developing software for remote data collection and providing training for specialists. Almost 30% of Ukraine’s forests have been damaged by the ongoing conflict, costing at least $360 million in damages.
Life in Russian-Occupied Ukraine
Russian and Belarusian authorities are reported to be forcibly deporting Ukrainian citizens, including children, to their territories. A Russian charity stated that 33 Ukrainian children and their mothers were moved from Horlivka, Donetsk Oblast to Moscow Oblast. Similarly, a group of children and their parents were reportedly taken from occupied Ukraine to Gomel, Belarus, allegedly for vacations. High-ranking officials from both countries are said to be endorsing these programs.
Incidents of severe criminal behavior by Russian military personnel, including a case where a Russian serviceman previously imprisoned for murder reportedly raped and murdered a Ukrainian teenager in Luhansk Oblast, continue to surface.
Russia News
Ukrainian forces carried out a drone strike on the Perviy Zavod Refinery in Kaluga Oblast, Russia, causing a significant fire. This facility, the largest petrochemical complex in the region, had previously been targeted by Ukraine in March 2024. Geolocated footage confirmed the blaze, which was acknowledged by the Kaluga Oblast Governor, Vladislav Shapsha. Ukraine’s military intelligence agency (HUR) confirmed its involvement in the attack. The strike, reportedly carried out with kamikaze drones, targeted the Perviy Zavod plant, the region’s largest petrochemical enterprise.
Mikhail Mishustin has been reappointed as Russian Prime Minister by President Vladimir Putin, with the Russian State Duma backing this decision. Meanwhile, Deputy Prime Minister Denis Manturov will step down as Minister of Industry and Trade, with Anton Alikhanov, the current head of Kaliningrad Oblast, set to replace him. Despite previous public criticisms, Manturov’s replacement by a member of his own team was deemed logical. The Russian State Duma is scheduled to review further appointments for deputy prime ministers and ministers on May 14.
Russian Federation Council Chairperson Valentina Matvienko submitted a list of candidates for the head of the Federation Council Accounts Chamber to President Vladimir Putin. The list includes Boris Kovalchuk, recently appointed to the Presidential Control Directorate and son of Yuri Kovalchuk, a key advisor to Putin and influential figure in Russian politics. Boris Kovalchuk, who previously led the energy company Inter RAO for 15 years, lacks the extensive economic background of the other candidates, Galina Izotova and Anatoly Artamonov. This nomination highlights his rising favor within Putin’s circle, despite his recent entry into the administration. President Putin will soon select a candidate from this list for the Federation Council’s consideration.
Russian Narrative and Propaganda
Pro-Kremlin entities are engaged in information campaigns aimed at undermining Ukrainian morale and justifying Russia’s military actions in Ukraine. Claims of Ukrainian war crimes and allegations that Ukraine is concealing military assets in civilian areas are being propagated to discredit the Ukrainian government and rationalize Russian strikes on urban centers like Kharkiv and Odesa.
Source Materials
Institute for the Study of War – understandingwar.org
The Kyiv Independent – kyivindependent.com
Kyiv Post – kyivpost.com