Summary of the Day:
The United Kingdom, Finland, and Czechia have announced new military assistance packages for Ukraine, as Russian forces continue a methodical advance across multiple fronts. Russian forces are expanding their position north of Kupyansk, attempting to envelop the city and cross the Oskil River. This coordinated effort appears to be part of a larger strategy to push Ukrainian forces from the east bank of the Oskil River.
Russian forces have adopted a new doctrine of slow, systematic envelopments of Ukrainian positions, indicating a long-term strategy apparently endorsed by President Putin. Military analysts suggest these operations could take six to nine months to conclude, requiring significant planning, manpower, and equipment. In the Donetsk region, Russian forces are intensifying efforts to close a Ukrainian pocket west of Kurakhove, while also making advances near Lyman, Toretsk, and Pokrovsk.
Ukraine has responded with strategic strikes against Russian infrastructure, successfully targeting Russia’s sixth-largest oil refinery in Volgograd. Meanwhile, North Korean forces have reportedly withdrawn from frontline positions in Kursk Oblast. In a significant diplomatic development, Moldova’s acceptance of EU energy aid for its breakaway region of Transnistria has reduced Russian economic influence in the area.
Picture of the Day:
The aftermath of a Russian missile attack on downtown Odesa. At least seven people were injured in the attack. (Oleh Kiper/Telegram)
Beyond Ukraine – The March Towards World War
Moldova and its breakaway region Transnistria have agreed to accept a 64-million-euro EU aid package, which includes funding for gas purchases. This development significantly weakens Russia’s economic influence over pro-Russian Transnistria, as Russia previously provided free gas that supported Transnistria’s budget through electricity exports. While Transnistria plans to use Russian funding for gas purchases from Hungary starting mid-February, the acceptance of EU aid marks a significant shift away from Russian economic control. This agreement could contribute to regional stability by reducing Russian leverage in the region, particularly ahead of Moldova’s 2025 parliamentary elections.
Norwegian authorities detained the Russian-crewed vessel Silver Dania suspected of damaging an undersea fiber-optic cable connecting Latvia and Sweden. While some users in Latvia experienced slower internet speeds, services were rerouted. NATO has increased naval patrols in the region to protect critical infrastructure.
The Path to Peace
Former President Trump announced that his team has engaged in “very serious” discussions with Russia regarding the war in Ukraine, suggesting potential steps toward ending the conflict. When asked about direct communication with Putin, Trump declined to specify.
U.S. Secretary of State Marco Rubio criticized Russia’s aggression in Ukraine but called it “dishonest” to suggest Ukraine could fully defeat Russia and restore pre-2014 borders. While condemning Putin’s “atrocities,” Rubio expressed doubts about Ukraine’s ability to achieve complete military victory. He said the U.S. has been funding a stalemate in a war that has devastated Ukraine’s infrastructure and displaced over 6 million people. The comments align with President Trump’s stance favoring swift peace negotiations.
Lithuanian President Gitanas Nauseda warned that any peace settlement with Russia must include Ukraine’s full participation and increased regional defense spending to prevent future aggression. He stressed that a ceasefire would merely allow Russia to rebuild its military capabilities for future conflicts, potentially targeting Ukraine or Baltic states.
Situation On The Land, Sea, and Air in Ukraine
The Russian military appears to be refining its approach to offensive operations based on its successful capture of Avdiivka in February 2024. This operation, which took four months to close a 12–15-kilometer gap, has become a blueprint for similar envelopments. The strategy proved successful again with the capture of Vuhledar in October 2024 and Velyka Novosilka in January 2025. Russia is now attempting to apply this methodical envelopment doctrine on a larger scale around Kupyansk and Pokrovsk, though these operations will test the limits of Russian military capabilities given their larger scope.
The Russian command appears to be testing a new approach by coordinating forces from multiple military districts in a single envelopment operation. Their earlier successes at Vuhledar and Velyka Novosilka benefited from having a single command structure under the Eastern Grouping of Forces. Now they’re attempting larger operations: the Central Grouping of Forces is working to close a 30-kilometer gap around Pokrovsk and Myrnohrad, while the Kupyansk operation involves coordination between two different commands. This multi-district approach could complicate operations but appears to be part of Russia’s effort to refine and scale up their envelopment tactics.
The Russian General Staff appears to be improving its ability to learn from and share battlefield experiences across different military districts – a notable change from their previous struggles in this area. Over the last three years, Russia’s failure to share lessons between different areas of responsibility led to repeated costly losses in troops and equipment. While Russian forces have typically been better at applying lessons within a single military district, their attempt to replicate successful Donetsk Oblast tactics in the Kupyansk operation suggests a broader effort to implement standardized doctrine across the entire theater.
Russia’s renewed push around Kupyansk indicates a willingness to commit to extended military operations, suggesting Putin plans to continue the war indefinitely. The current attempt to envelop Kupyansk will likely take months, requiring Russian forces to close a 25–30-kilometer gap while crossing the Oskil River and maintaining supply lines. Russian forces are also reportedly planning advances toward Velykyi Burluk from Dvorichna and Vovchansk, though they remain 30-35 kilometers away and could take six months to a year to threaten the settlement at their current pace of advance.
Russian military commanders appear to be operating on the assumption that Putin intends to continue the war until achieving a complete military victory over Ukraine. This is reflected in their methodical approach to operations – spending four months taking Avdiivka, much of 2024 adjusting the frontline in western Donetsk Oblast, and three years working to capture the remainder of Donetsk and Luhansk oblasts. Putin’s stated theory of victory relies on gradual, continuous advances, with no interest in negotiations except on his terms. His ultimate objectives remain the overthrow of Ukraine’s government and destruction of its military, suggesting Russian commanders are planning for a prolonged conflict with no immediate end in sight.
Russian forces are using a slow encirclement strategy to capture Ukrainian settlements, but this approach requires extensive resources and is proving costly. While successful in some areas, these operations demand large numbers of troops, tanks, and artillery. Current Russian losses in personnel and equipment appear unsustainable, with tank and vehicle losses mounting in 2024 and recruitment struggling to replace casualties. Some regions are failing to meet their recruitment goals as civilian willingness to volunteer decreases. This methodical approach, while achieving limited gains, may be difficult for Russia to maintain long-term due to these resource constraints.
Russian forces are reportedly operating reconnaissance groups in eastern Dnipropetrovsk Oblast, with confirmed positions approximately four kilometers from the Donetsk-Dnipropetrovsk Oblast border near Udachne, though claims of regular sabotage activities in the area remain unverified.
Ukrainian Operations in the Russian Federation – Initiative Russia
Russian forces attacked Ukrainian positions in Kursk Oblast focusing on areas near Sudzha. While Russian sources claimed a 600-meter advance near Makhnovka, this remains unconfirmed. The fighting involved areas around Nikolskiy, Sverdlikovo, and the Sorochina settlements.
North Korean forces have withdrawn from combat positions in Kursk Oblast, with Ukrainian forces noting their absence for about two to three weeks, according to Western and Ukrainian officials. The New York Times reported that Russian commanders pulled North Korean troops from the area after they suffered heavy losses, with poor coordination with Russian forces and disorganization leading to high North Korean casualties. Of the 11,000-12,000 North Korean troops deployed, approximately 5,500 were casualties since November 2024, as reported by Ukraine’s Commander-in-Chief Oleksandr Syrskyi. A documented engagement by Ukraine’s 8th Regiment of Special Operations Forces showed an eight-hour battle where Ukrainian forces killed 21 and wounded 40 North Korean soldiers before strategically withdrawing. While the withdrawal may be temporary, U.S. officials suggest North Korean forces could return after additional training or revised deployment strategies, and Ukrainian military intelligence chief Kyrylo Budanov expects North Korea to send additional forces, particularly artillery units, to support Russian operations.
Ukrainian forces struck a Russian command post in Rylsk near Sudzha as part of their ongoing strategy to disrupt Russian command and control in Kursk Oblast, with the attack reportedly destroying the command center of Russia’s Kursk group of forces.
Ukrainian forces successfully struck the Lukoil-Volgogradneftoperobka Oil Refinery, Russia’s sixth-largest refinery, in Volgograd City, located about 500 kilometers from the Ukrainian front line and producing gasoline, diesel, fuel oil, and aviation fuel. The operation involved Ukraine’s Military Intelligence, Unmanned Systems Forces, and other units, resulting in explosions and fire at the facility, marking the third Ukrainian strike on this specific refinery in 2024 and demonstrating Ukraine’s continued strategy of targeting Russian energy and defense infrastructure deep within Russian territory to disrupt military logistics. Russia claims its air defenses intercepted 49 Ukrainian drones across multiple regions, including Rostov, Volgograd, Kursk, Yaroslav, Krasnodar, Voronezh, and Belgorod.
Kharkiv Front – Initiative Russia
Russian forces launched limited ground attacks near Kharkiv City around Lyptsi and Vovchansk but made no advances.
Luhansk Front – Initiative Russia
Kupyansk
Russia has launched a new offensive north of Kupyansk, making advances near Dvorichna and Zapadne while claiming to have captured Novomlynsk. Using a combination of mechanized assaults and concentrated artillery, Russian forces have reached the P-79 Dvorichna-Kupyansk highway, suggesting a possible attempt to encircle Kupyansk from the north. After a relatively quiet period in 2024, Russian forces appear to be committing significant resources to this operation, though they lack major reserves. They may redeploy additional units from the nearby Vovchansk area to exploit any gains, while trying to avoid the command-and-control issues that have hampered previous Russian operations.
Russian forces attacked near Kupyansk targeting Petropavlivka and Pishchane. A Ukrainian battalion chief reported that Russians typically conduct daytime ground assaults and nighttime artillery strikes, using human wave attacks to exploit their numerical advantage.
Russian forces are attempting to expand operations around Kupyansk from multiple directions. Their forces are attacking east of Kupyansk near Kotlyarivka, while also operating along the Kolisnykivka-Kruhlyakivka-Zahryzove line where they’ve reached the east bank of the Oskil River. Russian forces are pushing westward near Lozova and Zelenyi Hai, suggesting a possible advance toward Borova. However, crossing the Oskil River remains a significant challenge for Russian forces, making it uncertain whether they can simultaneously pursue both the Borova advance and support the broader Kupyansk encirclement operation.
Borova
Russian forces attacked near Borova targeting Nova Kruhlyakivka, Zahryzove, and Kopanky, but made no advances.
Lyman
Russian forces made confirmed advances east of Yampolivka, northeast of Lyman. Russian attacks continued across multiple settlements including Zelena Dolyna, Kolodyazi, Balka Zhuravka, Terny, Novolyubivka, and Novomykhailivka.
Donetsk Front – Initiative Russia
Siversk
Russian forces attacked near Siversk targeting Bilohorivka, Verkhnokamyanske, and Spirne, but did not advance despite claims of progress in Verkhnokamyanske. Ukrainian forces reported destroying 10 Russian armored vehicles during attacks near Bilohorivka and Verkhnokamyanske.
Chasiv Yar
Russian forces attacked Chasiv Yar and surrounding areas with claims of advances in the northern district (Pivnichnyi Microraion) and near the central Refractory Plant, though these claims remain unconfirmed. Russian forces also conducted operations near Novomarkove, Orikhovo-Vasylivka, Stupochky, Bila Hora, and Predtechyne. The southwestern district (Shevchenko Microraion) is reportedly contested.
Toretsk
Russian forces advanced near Toretsk with confirmed progress in Petrivka and southern Toretsk. They eliminated the area between Toretsk and Shcherbynivka, with claims of advances into central Shcherbynivka and near Sukha Balka, though these remain unconfirmed. Russian forces reportedly captured half of the Toretska Mine in northern Toretsk and claim to control 70% of Krymske, though this hasn’t been independently verified. Military analysts suggest Russians may use Toretsk as a launching point for further advances westward into open terrain, potentially focusing on the Ukrainian fortress belt in Donetsk Oblast by Spring-Summer 2025.
Pokrovsk
Russian forces advanced near Pokrovsk, with confirmed progress west of Kotlyne. While Russia claimed to capture Novovasylivka, this settlement had already been taken by January 1. Russian forces conducted attacks across multiple settlements including Vodyane Druhe, Yelyzavetivka, Promin, Novotoretske, Myrolyubivka, Malynivka, Lysivka, Novoukrainka, Udachne, Kotlyarivka, Novoandriivka, Nadiivka, Zvirove, Zaporizhzhia, and Preobrazhenka. A Ukrainian brigade commander reported that Russian forces are effectively using small infantry groups and exploiting terrain and poor visibility conditions, despite taking heavy casualties. Ukrainian forces continue to hold positions in southern Uspenivka while defending against Russian attacks near Nadiivka.
Andriivka
Russian forces continued attacks near Kurakhove, operating near Kostiantynopil, Andriivka, Rozlyv, and Zelenivka. While there are claims of a two-kilometer advance north of Rozlyv, this remains unconfirmed.
Russian forces are closing in on a Ukrainian pocket west of Kurakhove, with confirmed advances north of Sukhi Yaly. They have collapsed the southern Ukrainian position along the Zelenivka-Sukhi Yaly-Yantarne line. Russian forces are now moving toward Kostiantynopil from the south and Andriivka from the north, attempting to encircle Ukrainian forces near Dachne and Ulakly. They have reached eastern Andriivka, which threatens Ukrainian withdrawal routes from the area. While Russians claim to have reached central Andriivka and the outskirts of Kostiantynopil, they have not yet entered Kostiantynopil itself.
Russian forces are advancing from the eastern side of the pocket, with progress southeast of Dachne. Reports indicate they now control half of Dachne and could encircle Ukrainian forces there if they manage to cut the H-15 highway near Ulakly. Russian forces have destroyed two bridges across the Sukhi Yaly River near Kostiantynopil, likely to trap Ukrainian forces in the pocket. Their apparent goal is to collapse this Ukrainian pocket west of Kurakhove, which would free up Russian forces for operations elsewhere, potentially towards the Donetsk-Dnipropetrovsk Oblast border from either Pokrovsk or Velyka Novosilka.
Velyka Novosilka
Russian forces attacked near Velyka Novosilka, with claimed but unconfirmed advances north of Rozdolne and Novyi Komar. Operations continued around Novosilka and Novopil. Ukrainian forces are reportedly conducting counterattacks in unspecified locations in this direction.
Zaporizhia Front – Initiative Russia
Russian forces launched limited attacks in the Zaporizhia region without confirmed territorial gains. While Russian official Vladimir Rogov claimed forces had reached the center of Kamyanske, this advance remains unverified. Ukrainian military reported Russian ground attacks near Novodanylivka, while Russian artillery struck Ukrainian positions in Mala Tokmachka.
Kherson (Dnipro River) Front – Initiative Russia
Russian forces carried out limited ground attacks along the Dnipro River and its delta islands.
Ukraine News
Russia launched a major drone attack against Ukraine, using 102 Shahed drones from multiple launch sites. Ukrainian forces intercepted 59 drones across twelve regions, while 37 drones were disabled by electronic warfare. Some drones hit targets in Sumy, Odesa, and Cherkasy regions, with strikes damaging an apartment building in Cherkasy City and hitting a hospital, warehouse, and other buildings in Chornomorsk.
Ukraine’s Security Service (SBU) has opened a criminal investigation into potential state secrets disclosure after media outlet Ukrainska Pravda reported that intelligence chief Kyrylo Budanov allegedly warned about threats to Ukraine’s existence during a closed parliamentary session. HUR (military intelligence) denies the report, which claimed Budanov suggested negotiations were needed by summer. The investigation focuses on those who had access to the classified meeting.
Ukraine’s Defense Ministry officially dismissed Maryna Bezrukova as head of the Defense Procurement Agency (DPA), citing failed delivery plans and other violations, following Defense Minister Rustem Umerov’s earlier suspension of her on January 24 and appointment of Arsen Zhumadilov as temporary director, despite the agency’s supervisory board’s vote to extend her contract. Bezrukova has appealed to President Zelensky to intervene, warning that the dispute has halted the agency’s operations and could threaten critical military supplies, while the controversy centers on whether the Defense Ministry can override the supervisory board’s authority in personnel decisions, as Ukrainian law grants supervisory boards sole authority over state enterprise leadership. The situation has drawn attention from G7 ambassadors, who called for swift resolution to ensure uninterrupted weapons procurement, while the National Anti-Corruption Bureau has launched a criminal investigation into potential abuse of power by Umerov, and anti-corruption watchdogs have raised concerns about potential attempts to take control of the agency.
The European Business Association (EBA), representing nearly 1,000 companies in Ukraine, has requested authorities implement a targeted air raid alert system. The current system requires region-wide work stoppages during potential threats, with some companies reporting up to 50% of working hours lost. The EBA proposes limiting alerts to specific areas under actual threat, rather than entire regions, to improve business productivity while maintaining worker safety. The organization emphasized that employee safety remains the top priority and acknowledges the need to follow State Emergency Service recommendations.
Ukrainian journalist Mstyslav Chernov won Best Documentary Direction at the 2025 Sundance Film Festival for “2,000 Meters to Andriivka.” The film follows Ukrainian soldiers from the 3rd Separate Assault Brigade during their 2023 mission to liberate Andriivka, a strategic village in Donetsk Oblast. Chernov, who previously won an Oscar for “20 Days in Mariupol,” worked with AP photographer Oleksandr Babienko and producers Michelle Misner and Rainey Aronson-Rath on the project. The documentary captures the challenges of modern warfare as Ukrainian forces navigate through mined territory and a narrow forest to reach their objective.
Ukraine’s Central Bank forecasts inflation to reach 15% by mid-2025 before declining to 8.4% by December, driven by poor harvests and labor shortages. The bank raised interest rates to 14.5% after December 2024’s inflation hit 12%. Looking ahead, Ukraine expects $38.4 billion in international aid for 2025 and projects 3.6% GDP growth, supported by investments in energy and production recovery. The bank’s head, Andrii Pyshnyi, expressed confidence in securing promised funding to cover the budget deficit without monetary emission, though war impacts and labor issues continue to affect economic recovery.
Innocent Victims Of War
The casualty count of civilians in the past 24 hours: (Russian War Crimes)
DEATHS: 9 INJURIES: 13
A Russian drone attack on a residential building in Sumy, northeastern Ukraine, killed nine people, including three elderly couples aged 61 to 74, and a 37-year-old woman. Thirteen others were wounded, including the deceased woman’s eight-year-old daughter.
Ukraine Mobilization and Defense Industrial Base
Ukraine’s military announced the deployment of a new long-range drone with a 2,000-kilometer range and 250-kilogram bomb capacity. These drones have been targeting Russian facilities, particularly oil infrastructure, for over a year. The military reports successful missions despite Russian claims of shooting them down. Ukraine’s Strategic Industries Minister noted the country produced over 30,000 bomber drones in 2024, reflecting the growing importance of drone warfare in the conflict.
The Ukrainian Defense Ministry announced that its new domestically-produced Hromylo drone has been approved for military use. The FPV drone can operate day and night, carry payloads, and is resistant to electronic warfare. It’s designed to target personnel, equipment, and field shelters. Ukraine has already delivered over 200,000 domestically-produced drones to its front-line units.
Ukraine’s Allies
The UK, Finland, and Sweden announced significant new military aid packages for Ukraine, with the UK committing $2.5 billion primarily for air defense systems and local defense production, while Finland approved its 27th package worth 198 million euros ($206-207 million) designed to meet Ukraine’s urgent front-line needs, bringing its total defense aid since Russia’s 2022 invasion to 2.5 billion euros. Sweden announced its largest and 18th military aid package to date worth $1.2 billion, which includes 16 combat boats, 1,500 anti-tank missiles, 146 trucks, and 200 armor-piercing shells, marking a shift from donating existing stockpiles to purchasing new weapons, with $90 million specifically allocated for Ukrainian production of long-range missiles and drones, bringing Sweden’s total military support to approximately $5.6 billion.
Additionally, Czechia announced plans to create an initiative for purchasing artillery ammunition for Ukraine, while Defense Minister Pal Jonson emphasized Sweden’s package demonstrates their long-term commitment to Ukraine and called for greater European responsibility in supporting Kyiv, as concerns grow about potential changes in U.S. assistance to Ukraine under a possible Trump presidency.
The Netherlands will deliver additional F-16 fighter jets to Ukraine in 2025, announced Defense Minister Rustem Umerov. This follows Ukraine’s initial receipt of F-16s from the Netherlands and Denmark in August 2024. The Dutch will continue training Ukrainian pilots and technicians, while also collaborating on drone capabilities and long-range strike capacity. The commitment includes previously announced military aid worth 400 million euros, with plans to develop joint defense enterprises.
Russia News
Goldman Sachs received approval from Russian President Vladimir Putin to sell its Russian business to Armenia’s Balchug Capital. While some Western banks like Goldman Sachs and the Netherlands’ ING Groep NV are exiting Russia, many remain operational despite earlier withdrawal pledges. Western banks that stayed paid €800 million in taxes to Moscow in 2023, quadruple pre-invasion levels. Though initially hit hard by sanctions, Russia’s banking sector has stabilized through increased state control and partnerships with non-Western institutions.
Russian War Losses (Today/Total)
| Troops +1430
839040 |
Tanks +9
9902 |
Artillery +48
22493 |
Arm. Veh. +22
20653 |
Aircraft
369 |
Heli
331 |
Ships
28 |
Russia Mobilization and Defense Industrial Base
The Russian government is expanding its “Time of Heroes” program from federal to regional levels across the country. The program aims to place veterans who fought in Ukraine into government positions. Nizhny Novgorod Oblast Governor Gleb Nitkin announced his region’s version of the program. Kursk and Irkutsk Oblasts have made similar announcements, following the Kremlin’s directive for all Russian regions to establish these programs.
Russia continues to increase financial incentives for military recruitment, both domestically and in occupied Ukraine. Saratov Oblast raised its one-time payment for new recruits from 500,000 to 700,000 rubles ($5,072 to $7,101) for contracts signed between February 1 and December 31, 2025. In occupied Kherson Oblast, Russian authorities are offering even higher payments: 800,000 rubles ($8,116) upfront, monthly salaries of 210,000 rubles ($2,130), and annual salaries of 3.32 million rubles ($33,684). The recruitment efforts in occupied territories violate Article 51 of the Geneva Convention, which prohibits occupying powers from compelling local populations to serve in their military forces, including through propaganda for voluntary recruitment.
The Russian Ministry of Defense plans to deploy new artificial intelligence technology in Ukraine. At the “ERA Technopolis” exhibition, Russian civilian and defense officials selected unspecified AI technologies for battlefield use.
Source Material
Institute for the Study of War – understandingwar.org
The Kyiv Independent – kyivindependent.com
Kyiv Post – kyivpost.com