Summary of the Day:
Ukrainian military officials report devastating losses to Russian armor in 2024, with over 3,000 tanks and 9,000 armored vehicles destroyed or damaged. These losses appear unsustainable given Russia’s limited production capacity of 250-300 new tanks annually, with a similar number able to be repaired. Russian forces now have less than half their pre-war reserves remaining, with most newer T-90 and T-80 tanks already depleted.
In response to these losses, Russian forces have significantly altered their tactics near frontline positions, particularly around Kurakhove. They’ve reduced mechanized assaults in favor of infantry-led attacks, with armored vehicles limited to fire support roles. Reports indicate Russian troops are increasingly using electric scooters, motorcycles, and ATVs for mobility in eastern Ukraine.
Despite equipment constraints, Russian forces achieved advances near Kreminna, Toretsk, Pokrovsk, and Kurakhove. However, Ukrainian forces successfully reclaimed lost positions near Kreminna and maintained their defensive positions around Kurakhove. In strategic operations, Ukraine conducted a successful drone strike on Russia’s Ust-Luga port gas terminal in Leningrad Oblast, the country’s second-largest sea trade facility.
The Russian government has responded to these challenges by increasing financial incentives for military recruitment, while trying to manage mounting equipment losses that threaten their medium-term combat capabilities.
Picture of the Day:
A multi-story building after a Russian strike with a guided aerial bomb in the Svesa village community in the Shostka district of Sumy Oblast. (Sumy Oblast Military Administration / Telegram)
Beyond Ukraine – The March Towards World War
A German opposition leader, Roderich Kiesewetter, warned that Chancellor Olaf Scholz may meet with Vladimir Putin before Germany’s February 23 elections. Kiesewetter criticized this potential meeting, arguing it would harm Ukraine’s interests. This follows Scholz’s November 2023 phone call with Putin – their first in two years – where Scholz called for Russian troop withdrawal and a negotiated peace. Ukrainian President Zelensky had expressed concern that such contact could lead to more Russian diplomatic engagement.
Georgian activists have called for a three-hour nationwide strike on January 15, 2025, to protest political arrests and demand new elections. The action, organized by Protest 24, comes amid growing public frustration over disputed parliamentary elections and Georgia’s shifting alignment toward Russia under the Georgian Dream party. This political crisis has implications for regional stability, as Georgia’s democratic backsliding and controversial foreign agents law have stalled its path to European Union membership, potentially increasing Russian influence in the region.
Georgia’s Interior Ministry announced plans to deport 25 foreigners for participating in recent anti-government protests, with 10 already having left the country. The deportations follow mass demonstrations in Tbilisi triggered by the pro-Russian Georgian Dream party’s contested October 2024 election victory. According to local media, most of the foreign detainees were Russian citizens. This political crackdown, along with Georgia’s controversial foreign agents law and delayed EU integration, signals the country’s continued shift toward Moscow’s influence and away from Western democratic values, potentially destabilizing the region and expanding Russia’s sphere of influence in the Caucasus.
On Jan. 1, Russia’s state-controlled Gazprom halted gas deliveries to Moldova, citing alleged unpaid debts by Moldovagaz—claims that Moldovan officials dispute, noting an international audit failed to verify the debts. While the suspension coincided with the expiration of a Russian gas transit deal through Ukraine, Gazprom maintains the decision was debt-related. The cutoff has triggered an energy crisis in the Russia-led breakaway Transnistria region, which remains heavily dependent on Russian gas and houses Russian troops since the early 1990s, despite the rest of Moldova switching to European energy supplies. The region, which rejected Chisinau’s earlier offer to help purchase gas via European platforms, now faces industrial collapse with 1,500 high-rise buildings without heating and hot water, 72,000 homes without gas, and 150 disconnected gas boiler houses, while two large social facilities have switched to diesel heating. Vadim Krasnoselsky, the head of Transnistria, urged residents to heat their stoves with wood, noting that while the region had strived for 100% gas coverage as a point of pride, they now must rely on their rich wood reserves, with solid fuel sales points opened in every district and free delivery available to citizens who cannot provide themselves with firewood due to life circumstances, declaring “there are no hopeless situations.”
Situation On The Land, Sea, and Air in Ukraine
Recent reports indicate Russia is changing tactics, using fewer armored vehicles in frontline assaults, particularly near Kurakhove. A Ukrainian brigade spokesperson reported that Russian forces now primarily rely on infantry attacks, using armored vehicles only for fire support. According to the New York Times, Russian forces are increasingly using electric scooters, motorcycles, and ATVs in eastern Ukraine, possibly to compensate for vehicle losses. This shift in tactics may also reflect the challenges of urban combat near settlements like Kurakhove and Pokrovsk, where mechanized assaults are less effective than in open terrain.
Russia announced that it shot down eight US-supplied ATACMS missiles and 72 drones. ATACMS missiles have a maximum range of 190 miles. The Russian defense forces did not report any casualties or damage from the interceptions.
Ukrainian Operations in the Russian Federation – Initiative Russia
Russian forces launched offensives in Ukraine’s Kursk Oblast with fighting reported near the settlements of Leonidovo, Aleksandriya, Viktorovka, and Kruglenkoye. While no frontline changes were confirmed, Russian forces are deploying newly trained personnel to the region, using small group tactics with light vehicles. Russian airborne units are operating near Sverdlikovo and Lebedevka, while artillery units are positioned near Martynovka.
Ukrainian President Zelensky reported heavy Russian and North Korean casualties near the village of Makhnovka in Russia’s Kursk region on January 4. According to Ukrainian military intelligence, up to a battalion of combined North Korean infantry and Russian paratroopers were lost in two days of fighting. Russia has positioned around 12,000 North Korean troops in Kursk since Ukrainian forces first entered the region in August 2023. Zelensky has urged China to use its influence to prevent further North Korean involvement in the conflict.
Ukrainian forces conducted a drone strike on the Novatek gas terminal at Russia’s Ust-Luga port in Leningrad Oblast, located 1,500 kilometers from Ukraine and representing Russia’s second-largest sea trade port after Novorossiysk. While Leningrad Oblast Governor Alexander Drozdenko claimed Russian forces shot down four drones near the Novotrans terminal with minimal impact to windows and no casualties, Russian opposition outlet Astra reported damage to a port building, with visual evidence confirming damage to the gas terminal facility. This incident marks Ukraine’s second successful drone strike on this strategic port’s gas terminal in 2024, following a previous attack in January that resulted in a fire at Novatek’s gas-condensate plant.
Ukrainian forces launched multiple attacks into Russian territory. According to Russian opposition source Astra, Ukraine targeted Baltimore Air Base in Voronezh City with at least five drones. While Russian officials claim they intercepted all drones, some reportedly fell on residential buildings. In a separate incident, Astra reported that a Ukrainian HIMARS strike on January 2 killed seven Russian servicemembers at a naval infantry command post in Ivanovskoye, Kursk Oblast. The target was reportedly a command post of Russia’s 810th Naval Infantry Brigade.
Kharkiv Front – Initiative Russia
Russian forces conducted limited offensive operations near the settlements of Starytsya and Vovchansk, northeast of Kharkiv City.
Luhansk Front – Initiative Russia
Kupyansk
Russian forces continued offensive operations around Kupyansk, although no confirmed advances were made. While a Russian source claimed advances near several settlements including Zapadne, Kalynove, Holubivka, Petropavlivka, Stepova Novoselivka, and Kivsharivka, these claims remain unconfirmed. Fighting also continued near Synkivka and Kucherivka.
Borova
Russian forces continued offensive operations in the Borova area without confirmed advances. Though the Russian Ministry of Defense claimed to have captured Nadiya (east of Borova), this settlement had already been under Russian control since November 6. Fighting occurred near multiple settlements including Zahryzove, Pershotravneve, Novoserhiivka, Novoyehorivka, Tverdokhlibove, Makiivka, and Cherneshchyna.
Lyman
Ukrainian forces recaptured positions in central Terny while Russian forces advanced into central Ivanivka, both northwest of Kreminna. Fighting continued near Yampolivka and in the Serebryanske forest area.
Donetsk Front – Initiative Russia
Siversk
Russian forces continued attacking near Hryhorivka and Bilohorivka, northeast of Siversk, but made no confirmed advances.
Chasiv Yar
Russian forces launched attacks near Chasiv Yar, deploying over 10,000 troops in the area. The offensive targeted multiple locations including Klishchiivka, Bila Hora, Predtechyne, and Stupochky. Despite these efforts, Russian forces did not secure any confirmed territorial gains.
Toretsk
Russian forces made a small advance along 1-Hirskyi Street in northwestern Toretsk. They also conducted operations near Toretsk proper, as well as near the settlements of Dyliivka and Shcherbynivka.
Russian forces near Toretsk, Donetsk Oblast, are using new tactics, including disguising themselves as civilians to bypass Ukrainian positions, according to a Ukrainian commander. After infiltrating, these Russian troops – some reportedly former prisoners – either wait for reinforcements or plant anti-tank mines to attack Ukrainian positions. The Russians are also attempting small infantry assaults under fog cover. Toretsk has become a major hotspot, with Ukraine anticipating increased Russian attacks there as well as in Kherson and Zaporizhzhia regions.
Pokrovsk
Russian forces advanced in multiple areas around Pokrovsk capturing positions in central Lysivka and near Vovkove. Fighting continues across numerous settlements including Baranivka, Myrne, Vodyane Druhe, Timofiivka, Promin, Myrolyubivka, Dachenske, Zelene, Novyi Trud, Shevchenko, and Pishchane. Ukrainian officials report that Russian forces are attempting to encircle Pokrovsk to avoid urban combat, though they note a decrease in glide bomb strikes in the region. Russian forces reportedly captured Novoolenivka.
Kurakhove Region
Ukrainian forces maintain limited positions on the western edge of the Kurakhivske Reservoir near Stari Terny, while Russian forces made a small advance near Kostiantynopolske. Fighting continues around Kurakhove, Petropavlivka, Dachne, Yantarne, Zelenivka, and Rozlyv. Ukrainian forces successfully repelled a Russian mechanized platoon assault in the area.
Velyka Novosilka
Russian forces continued attacks near Velyka Novosilka, particularly around Novosilka, but failed to make any confirmed advances. While Russian sources claimed advances northwest of Neskuchne and south of the Velyka Novosilka-Hulyaipole highway, these claims remain unverified.
Zaporizhia Front – Initiative Russia
Russian forces attacked in western Zaporizhia Oblast focusing on areas near Robotyne, Mala Tokmachka, Bilohirya, and Novodanylivka, but achieved no confirmed advances. Russian sources claimed Ukrainian forces launched counterattacks in the region. Russian forces are reportedly active in the Orikhiv area.
Kherson (Dnipro River) Front – Initiative Russia
Russian forces attacked positions along the Dnipro River and its delta islands but failed to make any confirmed advances.
Ukraine News
Russian forces launched extensive drone and missile strikes across Ukraine. The attacks included five S-300 missiles at Kursk Oblast, three Iskander-M missiles at Chernihiv Oblast, three Kh-59/69 cruise missiles at Dnipropetrovsk Oblast, and 32 Shahed and decoy drones. A subsequent overnight attack involved 81 Shahed and decoy drones launched from multiple Russian regions. Ukrainian forces intercepted 34 drones across nine oblasts, while 47 were neutralized by electronic warfare. The strikes caused civilian casualties in Chernihiv City, where three missile strikes hit a residential building, killing one person. Drone debris damaged homes in Chernihiv and Sumy oblasts, and industrial sites in Stari Borovychi were also hit.
In the first three days of 2025, Russia launched over 300 drones and 20 missiles at Ukrainian cities and villages, President Zelensky reported. The attacks destroyed residential buildings and caused civilian casualties. Daily guided aerial bomb strikes continue near front-line settlements. In response, Zelensky called for strengthened air defense systems and will address this at the upcoming Ramstein-format defense summit on January 9.
Slovakia’s state transmission operator SEPS will continue providing emergency electricity to Ukraine, despite threats from Prime Minister Roberto Fico to halt supplies following Ukraine’s decision not to renew Russian gas transit agreements. Under a contract extended last spring, SEPS can supply Ukraine with up to 150 megawatts of electricity, with exports having increased significantly in 2023. This decision contrasts with Fico’s recent policy shifts, which include stopping weapons deliveries to Ukraine and threatening to reduce aid for Ukrainian refugees – marking a significant change from Slovakia’s previously strong support for Ukraine since Russia’s invasion.
A new survey by the Kyiv International Institute of Sociology shows that 51% of Ukrainians oppose giving up any territory to Russia for peace, down from 58% in October 2024. Those willing to consider territorial concessions rose to 38%, up from 32% in October and significantly higher than the 10% recorded at the start of the war. The survey polled 985 respondents in Ukrainian-controlled regions.
Innocent Victims Of War
The casualty count of civilians in the past 24 hours: (Russian War Crimes)
DEATHS: 4 INJURIES: 39
A Russian missile strike involving three ballistic missiles hit a residential area in Chernihiv, Ukraine, killing 72-year-old educator Oleksii Halionka and injuring seven others, with two requiring hospitalization. The attack damaged 28 homes and completely destroyed two, with Halionka, an associate professor who authored over 100 publications, having previously lost his original home and 4,000-book library to Russian attacks in 2022. Utility services have been restored, and local authorities have completed rescue operations while continuing to aid victims.
A woman in her early 20s died in hospital on January 4, 2025, from severe stomach wounds caused by debris from a downed Russian drone in the Kyiv region, with the attack also killing a truck driver and injuring five others, including a 16-year-old. One man in his 70s remains in intensive care with a back injury, while another victim with a knee injury is under medical supervision but stable.
Russian forces struck Svesa village in Sumy Oblast using two glide bombs that hit a residential building. Ten people were injured, including two 2-year-old children. The attack destroyed 15 apartments and damaged 700 windows, with emergency services evacuating 14 people.
Russian forces attacked Stepnohirsk village in Zaporizhzhia Oblast using Grad multiple rocket launchers. The strike killed one man and injured his wife, who was hospitalized.
Russia attacked 40 settlements across Kherson Oblast, including the city of Kherson, injuring eight people. In a separate drone strike on the village of Antonivka the same morning, a 71-year-old man was hospitalized with head and abdominal wounds.
Russian strikes in Donetsk Oblast injured five people – four in the city of Sloviansk and one in the village of Oleksiyevo-Druzhkivka.
Russian attacks in Kharkiv Oblast injured two men – a 56-year-old was hurt in a drone strike on Zapadne village and a 55-year-old was wounded by shelling in Kozacha Lopan village.
The aftermath of the Russian drone attack against the city of Kherson in Kherson Oblast. (Ukraine’s State Emergency Service / Telegram)
Life in Russian Occupied Ukraine
As Ukraine reduces support for internally displaced persons (IDPs), some are making the difficult choice to return to Russian-occupied areas. With monthly government aid dropping from 2.5 million recipients in 2023 to just over 1 million in August 2024, many IDPs struggle to afford rent and basic necessities. Current state assistance amounts to roughly $45 per month for adults and $70 for children and disabled persons, far below the estimated subsistence minimum of $145.
The housing situation is particularly dire, with only 2,995 IDPs housed in temporary municipal lodgings while 13,048 remain on waiting lists. Some, like residents of Lysychansk in Luhansk Oblast, have chosen to return to occupied territories despite facing severe conditions including unreliable utilities, limited medical care, and mandatory Russian passification. Under new Russian decrees, those without Russian passports risk losing their property rights starting July 2024.
While official Ukrainian data shows 1,262 people returned to occupied territories over nine months, actual numbers may be higher. The only route back requires traveling through Moscow’s Sheremetyevo airport, where returnees face extensive security screening and potential rejection. Despite these challenges, some IDPs are choosing to return home rather than face housing insecurity and financial hardship in Ukrainian-controlled territories.
A Russian freelance reporter, Alexander Martemyanov, was reportedly killed by a Ukrainian drone strike while traveling on a highway in occupied Donetsk Oblast. The attack also allegedly injured five other media workers, including a RIA Novosti journalist. The group was reportedly returning from covering shelling in Russian-controlled Horlivka. This information comes from Russian state media and cannot be independently verified.
Russia News
Russian commander Konstantin Nagayko, 29, is in critical condition following an explosion at his military unit in Shuya, Russia. According to Ukraine’s Main Intelligence Directorate (HUR), Nagayko suffered severe shrapnel injuries to multiple organs, including his brain. As battery commander of Russia’s 112th Rocket Brigade, Nagayko was involved in the October 5 missile strike on a café in Hroza, Kharkiv Oblast, which killed 59 civilians during a soldier’s memorial service.
Russian War Losses (Today/Total)
Ukrainian military reports show Russia suffered major equipment losses in 2024, with over 3,000 tanks and nearly 9,000 armored vehicles destroyed or damaged. The heaviest losses occurred during intense fighting in Donetsk Oblast, particularly during Russian offensives in September and October, when they lost nearly 200 tanks and over 600 armored personnel carriers. These losses, combined with high casualty rates during summer operations in western Donetsk Oblast, suggest Russia’s current rate of equipment loss may be unsustainable long-term.
Russia’s ability to replace its heavy equipment losses appears unsustainable based on current production capacity. Ukrainian military observer Kostyantyn Mashovets reports Russia can only produce or repair 500-600 tanks annually, far below the 3,600 tanks lost in 2024. While Russia has been drawing from Soviet-era storage, these reserves are now depleted to less than half their pre-war levels. A recent analysis shows only 47% of tank reserves, 52% of infantry fighting vehicles, and 45% of armored personnel carriers remain in storage. Most newer T-90 and T-80 tanks have already been used, leaving mainly older, potentially weather-damaged equipment. With current losses nearly triple the rate of the war’s first two years, Russia may be unable to maintain its military equipment needs through 2025.
Troops +1730
796490 |
Tanks +7
9686 |
Artillery +25
21603 |
Arm. Veh. +26
20119 |
Aircraft 
369 |
Heli
331 |
Ships
28 |
Russia Mobilization and Defense Industrial Base
Russian officials are dramatically increasing financial incentives for military recruitment. In Samara Oblast, new recruits can now receive 4 million rubles ($36,222) as a signing bonus – reportedly the highest in Russia. Meanwhile, Voronezh Oblast has increased referral bonuses by 50% to 75,000 rubles ($679) for those who help recruit new soldiers.
A Russian military blogger reports that Russia is struggling to modernize its naval drone fleet while Ukraine continues to make advances in this area. Despite ongoing development and testing, Russia has not widely deployed its naval drones. The blogger noted that Russia plans to establish a naval drone manufacturing facility at the Kingisepp Machine-Building Plant in St. Petersburg in 2025 but currently lags behind Ukraine in drone innovation.
Russian forces are modifying old T-62 tanks into makeshift armored personnel carriers (APCs) to address their severe shortage of proper transport vehicles, according to a Russian military blogger. The modifications include adding a flat platform to the aging tanks.
Source Material
Institute for the Study of War – understandingwar.org
The Kyiv Independent – kyivindependent.com
Kyiv Post – kyivpost.com