Summary of the day: The Russian military has redeployed forces to Kursk Oblast and is forming the Northern Grouping of Forces, signaling preparations for a possible offensive against northeastern Ukraine, including Kharkiv City. Additionally, Russian troops made advancements near Kupyansk and Robotyne. In the geopolitical arena, US officials have expressed ongoing support for Ukrainian counteroffensives planned for 2025, while European intelligence warns of potential Russian sabotage activities across Europe. Amidst these developments, internal issues within Russian military structures continue to impede their operational capabilities.
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Beyond Ukraine – March Towards World War
Kremlin officials are using narratives of protecting Russian “compatriots” in the Baltic states to justify potential future aggression. Maria Zakharova, spokesperson for the Russian Ministry of Foreign Affairs, claimed that Russian citizens in Estonia, Latvia, and Lithuania are facing persecution and are vulnerable due to the closure of Russian consular offices. She warned that Russia will respond to these “hostile” actions from the Baltic states with asymmetric measures, focusing on economic and transit-related pressures.
European intelligence agencies have alerted their governments about planned Russian sabotage acts across Europe, which include covert bombings, arson, and infrastructure damage. According to the Financial Times and statements from German intelligence, these acts are orchestrated by Russian forces and proxies, posing a significantly increased threat to European security. This coordinated sabotage campaign aims to destabilize NATO member states, with NATO expressing deep concern over these hybrid operations. Recent incidents in Germany involving arrests linked to planned attacks on military sites and a warehouse fire suspected of Russian involvement illustrate the scale and nature of these threats.
Chinese President Xi Jinping expressed willingness to collaborate with France and the international community to end the war in Ukraine during discussions with French media outlet Le Figaro. Jinping’s visit to Paris marked his first EU visit in five years, aimed at strengthening ties with French President Emmanuel Macron. While China officially maintains neutrality in the conflict, recent reports suggest its support for Russia’s military efforts in Ukraine. Jinping reiterated China’s commitment to peace and stability, emphasizing its constructive role and desire to work with France and the global community to resolve the crisis.
Czechia and Estonia will not send representatives to Russian President Vladimir Putin’s upcoming inauguration on May 7, as confirmed by their foreign ministers. The move follows similar decisions by the UK, Canada, Latvia, and Lithuania. These countries are boycotting the event due to concerns over the legitimacy of Russia’s recent presidential election, widely criticized for being rigged by the Kremlin. Estimates suggest significant voting fraud, raising doubts about the election’s fairness.
Situation On The Land, Sea, and Air in Ukraine
Russia has intensified its military activities near Ukraine by redeploying a battalion to Kursk Oblast and assembling a significant force of approximately 50,000 troops across Belgorod, Kursk, and Bryansk. These movements, aimed at preparing for a potential offensive in northeastern Ukraine, include the consolidation of the Northern Grouping of Forces with units transferred from the Leningrad Military District to concentrate on the Belgorod-Kharkiv area. This strategic positioning involves key units such as the 30th Motorized Rifle Regiment and the 128th Motorized Rifle Brigade. Concurrently, Russia has escalated its military activities including air, drone, and missile strikes targeting Ukrainian regions near Chernihiv, Sumy, and Kharkiv. Despite these extensive preparations, assessments indicate that Russian forces might still be inadequate to successfully seize Kharkiv City, though they might attempt limited offensive actions in the area. Meanwhile, internal challenges within the Russian military continue to impact its operational effectiveness.
In January 2024, Financial Times reported that US officials, including National Security Advisor Jake Sullivan, recommended Ukraine adopt a conservative approach in 2024, focusing on active defense while preparing for a counteroffensive in 2025. Sullivan and other US officials have expressed ongoing support for these plans, aiming to help Ukraine recapture territory and resist further Russian advances in 2024. The Institute for the Study of War (ISW) has warned that such a strategy would give Russian forces the advantage of dictating the pace and intensity of the conflict, potentially strengthening their position. A Russian military blogger noted that this approach would allow Russia to continue air strikes without significant Ukrainian pushback this year. The situation is further complicated by significant Russian advances and the ongoing threat in regions like Kharkiv Oblast. US military aid is expected to help Ukrainian forces maintain their positions and withstand Russian assaults through 2024, though it won’t immediately change the battlefield dynamics. The delivery and impact of Western weapons and ammunition will take several weeks but should eventually help stabilize the frontline and shift the momentum in Ukraine’s favor. However, the ultimate success of Ukraine’s counteroffensive will depend on multiple factors, including decisions by Western allies, Russia, and Ukraine itself.
Bureaucratic challenges are hindering Russian frontline units’ ability to effectively strike Ukrainian targets. To bypass poor communication and slow approval processes from higher-level commanders, Russian field operatives are directly providing strike coordinates to company commanders. Additionally, drone operators are sending target coordinates to the Military Counterintelligence Department to pressure senior defense officials to speed up the approval of fire missions. A Russian milblogger highlighted an incident where a Russian unit missed striking Ukrainian grenade launchers due to delays in command approval to verify and authorize the strike, illustrating ongoing communication and bureaucratic inefficiencies within the Russian military.
Luhansk Front – Initiative Russia
Donetsk Front – Initiative Russia
Zaporizhia Front – Initiative Russia
Kherson (Dnipro River) Front – Initiative Ukraine
Russian forces have recently made several territorial gains in the region around Kupyansk, Svatove, and Kreminna, intensifying their military actions. They successfully captured Kotlyarivka southeast of Kupyansk by May 4 and advanced in several other areas including near Synkivka, Pishchane, and Kyslivka northeast and southeast of Kupyansk. Additional attacks were reported northwest of Svatove and around Kreminna, affecting locations like Berestove, Stelmakhivka, and the Serebryanske forest area.
Russian forces continued their military actions northeast of Bakhmut in the Siversk area but made no territorial gains. According to the Ukrainian General Staff, attacks by Russian forces east, southeast, and southwest of Siversk, specifically near Verkhnokamyanske, Vyimka, Spirne, and Rozdolivka, were unsuccessful.
Russian forces continued their offensive near Chasiv Yar but did not achieve any confirmed territorial gains. Despite claims by a Russian milblogger of advances by Russian Airborne Forces north of the Kanal Microraion and consolidation of positions in the Stupky-Holubovski 2 nature reserve, these claims lack visual confirmation. Ukrainian forces reportedly counterattacked near Bohdanivka, northeast of Chasiv Yar. Fighting persisted in areas around Chasiv Yar, including near the Kanal and Novyi Microraions, and near Ivanivske, Klishchiivka, and Andriivka. There is unconfirmed footage of a destroyed bridge over the Siversky-Donets Donbas Canal, with unclear responsibility for the destruction. Russian forces are said to have concentrated 20,000 to 25,000 personnel in this region, with drone support.
The Russian Ministry of Defense announced that their forces captured Ocheretyne, northwest of Avdiivka. Ukrainian National Guard Captain Volodymyr Cherniak reported that Russian brigades outmaneuvered new Ukrainian defenses in the area, forming a small salient due to the lack of Ukrainian engineering personnel for rapid defensive construction. Despite their slow pace, Russian “meat assaults” — described as simple yet brutally effective — continue to pose significant defensive challenges. Russian forces are also pressing offensives in surrounding areas including Arkhanhelske, Novokalynove, Novooleksandrivka, Berdychi, Semenivka, Novopokrovske, Sokil, and Solovyove.
Russian forces continued their offensive operations west and southwest of Avdiivka but did not achieve any confirmed territorial gains. Russian milbloggers claimed minor tactical advances in Netaylove, southwest of Avdiivka, with a reported progression of 300 meters. Attacks were also launched west of Avdiivka near Umanske and Yasnobrodivka, and southwest near Nataylove. However, geolocated footage suggests that Ukrainian forces may have recaptured positions in Nevelske, southwest of Avdiivka, on an unspecified date.
Russian forces continued their offensive operations west and southwest of Donetsk City without making any confirmed territorial advances. Russian milbloggers reported marginal gains east of Krasnohorivka and in eastern Paraskoviivka. Additional attacks occurred near Novomykhailivka and Heorhiivka west of Donetsk City, and near Kostyantynivka and Vodyane southwest of the city.
Russian forces reportedly made an advance of up to 500 meters near Novomaiorske in the Donetsk-Zaporizhia Oblast border area on May 4, but no confirmed changes to the frontline were reported on May 5. Ongoing positional engagements are taking place south and southwest of Velyka Novosilka near Staromayorske, Urozhaine, Novopil, and Novodarivka. Russian forces are active near Staromayorske and near Vuhledar.
Russian forces made recent advances in Robotyne, with ongoing positional engagements in the western Zaporizhia Oblast. Geolocated footage from May 4 confirms the advance in southern Robotyne. Nearby, engagements also continue near Verbove, east of Robotyne.
Ukrainian forces expanded their positions on the eastern bank of Kherson Oblast, particularly in Krynky, as confirmed by geolocated footage. During this time, Russian forces launched several unsuccessful assaults near Nestryha Island in the Dnipro River Delta. Additionally, drone operators from the Russian “Margelov” Volunteer Battalion continue their activities in Kherson Oblast.
Ukrainian Civilian Victims Of War
The casualty count of Ukrainian civilians in the past 24 hours:
DEATHS:4 INJURIES: 27
- Russian forces attacked Mykhailivka village in Donetsk Oblast’s Pokrovsk district on May 5, injuring three people. The strike occurred at 9:00 a.m. local time using a drone with an attached grenade. A 68-year-old man and two women, aged 49 and 67, were injured while in a car during the attack. Additionally, Governor Vadym Filashkin reported 19 attacks on settlements in Donetsk Oblast, resulting in casualties including two deaths in Pokrovsk and one in Druzhkivka.
- In Kharkiv Oblast, a series of Russian attacks resulted in casualties and injuries across multiple locations. An 88-year-old woman died in a house fire caused by shelling in Monachynivka, where a 34-year-old man was also injured. In Slobozhanske, a 49-year-old man was killed, and a 75-year-old woman was injured in Cherkasky Tyshky. Additionally, missile and drone attacks in Kharkiv’s Industrialnyi and Osnoviansky districts injured 15 people, including an eight-year-old girl. Another person was injured in Kivsharivka, with further details pending.
- Russian missile strikes in Odesa Oblast injured three people, including a man and two women.
- Russia attacked 10 settlements in Kherson Oblast, damaging two apartment buildings, a house, a car, and an educational institution. One person was injured.
- Russia fired 345 times at settlements in Zaporizhzhia Oblast and 214 times in Sumy Oblast. Casualties were not reported.
Russian forces struck a residential area in downtown Kharkiv
Ukraine News
Russian forces launched a series of drone and missile strikes against Ukraine in the early morning. Ukrainian Air Force reported that out of 24 Shahed drones launched from Kursk and Crimea, 23 were destroyed over Kharkiv, Kherson, and Dnipropetrovsk oblasts, with debris causing infrastructure damage in Dnipro City. Civilian infrastructure in Kharkiv City was also hit, injuring several civilians. Additionally, Iskander-K missiles were likely used in a strike against Odesa Oblast. Further strikes continued during the day, including a missile attack on a grain elevator in Poltava and guided glide bomb strikes on Kharkiv, injuring civilians and damaging infrastructure. In Donetsk Oblast, the Slovyansk Thermal Power Plant was targeted with rockets, including cluster munitions.
Ukrainian Energy Minister Herman Halushchenko reported that Russian attacks on Ukraine’s energy infrastructure, targeting thermal and hydroelectric power plants and transmission systems, have caused over one billion dollars in damages. These strikes include a notable incident where the Sloviansk Thermal Power Plant in Donetsk Oblast was hit by five heavy artillery rockets, leading to significant damage. The full extent of the damage and whether the plant is operational remain unclear. Despite these challenges, Halushchenko described the Ukrainian energy system as stable but complicated, noting it is under considerable stress yet supported by renewable energy sources. The ongoing Russian escalation involves intensified missile and drone strikes, causing daily damage and persistent restrictions on electricity, particularly in Kharkiv Oblast where blackouts have intensified. In response to these conditions, President Volodymyr Zelensky has stated that Ukraine needs 25 Patriot air defense systems to safeguard against further Russian attacks. The situation continues to be managed with efforts to stabilize and prepare for the upcoming autumn-winter period.
Swiss President Viola Amherd announced that Switzerland has invited Pope Francis to attend a global peace summit aimed at ending the war in Ukraine, scheduled for June 15-16. Amherd confirmed the invitation during a meeting with the pope in Italy, where they discussed the conflict in Ukraine. The summit, which will host 160 national delegations, will focus on Ukraine’s 10-point peace plan, seeking a complete withdrawal of Russian troops from occupied territories. Pope Francis has previously called for a prisoner exchange between Russia and Ukraine, a topic likely to be addressed at the summit. Russia has not been invited to participate in the event.
Ukrainian Mobilization and Defense Industrial Base
The Ukrainian Defense Ministry announced that members of the Military Medical Examination Commission are no longer allowed to use personal judgment in determining military eligibility. This follows President Volodymyr Zelensky’s signing of a law on April 2 that eliminates the “partially eligible” category, now only categorizing conscripts as “eligible” or “non-eligible.” This change mandates the re-examination of men aged 18 to 60 previously listed as “partially eligible” and aims to streamline the process by strictly adhering to a specified list of medical exemptions to curb corruption and draft dodging.
Ukraine’s Allies
German arms manufacturer Rheinmetall will supply Ukraine with “hundreds of thousands” of shells in 2024, including prototypes of artillery shells with a range of 100 kilometers, as announced by Rheinmetall CEO Armin Papperger on May 5. This move comes amidst Russia’s increasing aerial attacks on Ukrainian cities and its advances along the eastern front line. Rheinmetall aims to address the critical ammunition shortage faced by the Ukrainian military. The company plans to expand artillery production significantly, with expectations to produce 700,000 shells this year. They also intend to establish new artillery plants in Germany, Lithuania, and Ukraine, as part of their commitment to supporting Ukraine’s defense efforts.
Life in Russian-Occupied Ukraine
A car bomb in occupied Berdiansk, Ukraine, killed Yevgeniy Ananievsky, a Russian official accused by Ukraine’s military intelligence agency (HUR) of establishing torture chambers in Zaporizhzhia Oblast. Ananievsky was part of the Moscow-installed administration in the region. While Russian law enforcement confirmed the assassination, they did not disclose his name. HUR, without claiming responsibility, stated that all alleged war crime perpetrators would be justly punished.
Russia News
On Orthodox Easter, May 5, the Kremlin-controlled Russian Orthodox Church Moscow Patriarchate (ROC MP) used the occasion to support the Kremlin’s war in Ukraine. Patriarch Kirill, in his Easter message, portrayed Russia as undergoing sacred trials and urged prayers for Russian authorities and military forces. Russian President Vladimir Putin, present at the service, praised the ROC MP for preserving Russian heritage during challenging times. The event was broadcast by a Russian Ministry of Defense network, which censored viewer comments calling for peace. The ROC MP, asserting the war as a “holy war,” has suppressed dissent within its ranks and has been part of broader repressions against non-ROC religions in Russia and occupied Ukraine.
Russian Mobilization and Defense Industrial Base
A BBC investigation revealed that Russia has been recruiting Cubans into its armed forces by offering approximately $2,000 per month and a Russian passport within months of enlistment. Since the onset of the full-scale invasion in February 2022, hundreds of Cubans have reportedly joined, with at least 200 names leaked by pro-Ukrainian hackers. The investigation confirmed at least 31 of these individuals are in Russia or linked to the Russian army. Some Cubans initially moved to Russia for construction jobs but ended up on Ukraine’s eastern front. Additionally, in September 2023, Cuba identified a human trafficking ring recruiting people to fight for Russia, which the Cuban Foreign Affairs Ministry firmly condemned. Russia’s recruitment drive extends beyond Cuba, targeting nationals from various Asian and African countries to bolster its forces in Ukraine while avoiding domestic mobilization. In January, President Putin decreed that foreign nationals in the Russian military could apply for citizenship.
Novaya Gazeta Europe reported on May 3 that the Russian Ministry of Defense is planning to expand Moscow Oblast’s main military cemetery into an adjacent forest due to a shortage of burial space. Local residents are upset about the potential destruction of the forest, with suggestions from some that the bodies of servicemen should be cremated to conserve space.
Russian Narratives and Propaganda
During the Orthodox Easter holiday, Kremlin officials promoted narratives suggesting the West threatens Russian Orthodoxy in post-Soviet states, particularly in the Baltics. In an article published by the Kremlin outlet Izvestiya, Russian Ambassador-at-Large Gennady Askaldovich accused the US and its allies of using religion as a tool in foreign policy. He criticized the Ecumenical Patriarchate of Constantinople for allegedly splitting Orthodoxy by granting independence to the Ukrainian Orthodox Church in 2019 and attempting to diminish the Russian Orthodox Church’s influence in Eastern Europe and former Soviet states.
Source Materials
Institute for the Study of War – understandingwar.org
The Kyiv Independent – kyivindependent.com
Kyiv Post – kyivpost.com