Summary of the Day:
Ukrainian forces conducted drone strikes on Russian distilleries focusing on facilities reportedly linked to military production. The attacks hit distilleries in Yefremov, Luzhlovsky, and Rasskozovo, with additional damage to a facility in Voronezh Oblast.
South Korea is considering sending military intelligence personnel and weapons to Ukraine as North Korean troops are expected to arrive in Russia’s Kursk Oblast on October 23. Additionally, North Korean fighter pilots were reportedly sent to Vladivostok in September, potentially to train on Russian aircraft or address Russia’s pilot shortages.
The 16th annual BRICS summit opened in Kazan, Russia, with 36 world leaders attending, including representatives from China, India, South Africa, and Iran. During sideline meetings, Russian President Putin met with Chinese President Xi Jinping to discuss bilateral relations, while Indian Prime Minister Modi emphasized the need for a peaceful resolution to the Ukraine war.
Russian forces made territorial advances near Kurakhove and Vuhledar, while also participating in naval exercises with Iran and Oman in the Indian Ocean. A recent Russian poll shows that while 78% approve of Putin’s presidency, most Russians favor policies that contradict his current strategies, particularly regarding the war in Ukraine and domestic priorities.
Picture of the Day:
Volunteers from Base UA, a Ukrainian NGO for humanitarian aid and cultural work, help a civilian to evacuate from Kostiantynivka in Donetsk Oblast as the area gets too dangerous for locals to live. (Andre Luis Alves/Anadolu via Getty Images)
Beyond Ukraine – The March Towards World War
The 16th annual BRICS summit opened in Kazan, Russia on October 22-24, 2024, with 36 world leaders attending, though three key leaders canceled: Brazil’s President Lula da Silva (due to a minor brain hemorrhage), Cuba’s President Miguel Diaz-Canel (citing energy problems), and Serbia’s President Aleksandar Vucic (schedule conflict). Attendees include representatives from original BRICS members China, India, and South Africa, along with new 2024 members Iran, Egypt, Ethiopia, and UAE, plus UN Secretary General Antonio Guterres, whose attendance has drawn criticism from Ukraine. During sideline meetings, Russian President Putin met with Chinese President Xi Jinping to discuss bilateral relations and Ukraine, with President Zelensky recently stating that intelligence shows China is helping Russia prolong the conflict through Chinese companies providing drones and other dual-use technologies (which have faced U.S. sanctions). Meanwhile, Indian Prime Minister Modi emphasized the need for a peaceful resolution to the Ukraine war and offered India’s mediation. The summit, Russia’s largest international gathering since invading Ukraine, is expected to focus on mechanisms that could support Russia’s war efforts while demonstrating Moscow’s continued global influence despite Western sanctions.
Russia joined Iran and Oman in naval drills called “IMEX 2024” in the Indian Ocean, with several countries including Saudi Arabia and India observing. Separately, Russia began mountain and desert warfare exercises called “Frontier-2024” with Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, and Tajikistan. These joint exercises aim to strengthen military partnerships and demonstrate force in regions where the US has interests.
Belarus has begun its regular military draft, sending about 10,000 citizens to various military and security units between October 22 and November 23. As new recruits enter service, those who have completed their mandatory service will be released.
In a remarkably tight Pennsylvania presidential race, Democratic candidate Kamala Harris and Republican Donald Trump are separated by just 0.3 percent, with Trump slightly ahead. The state’s 122,000 Ukrainian-American voters could prove decisive, as Biden’s 2020 victory margin there was only 81,000 votes. Democratic campaigns are actively courting Eastern European voters, running ads highlighting Harris’s support for Ukraine while criticizing Trump’s Russia ties. Some prominent Ukrainian-American Republicans, including former Trump supporters Mykola Hryckowian and Eugene Luciw, are now opposing Trump due to his stance on Ukraine and Russia. The state’s Ukrainian-American population, concentrated largely in the Philadelphia area, has become an unexpected focal point in what could be one of the election’s most crucial battleground states.
An Il-76 cargo plane was shot down over North Darfur, Sudan, on October 21, reportedly carrying Russian crew members including Viktor Granov and Anton Selivants. The Rapid Support Forces (RSF), a paramilitary group, allegedly shot down the aircraft mistaking it for a government plane. The crash occurred around 4:00 a.m. local time, with no reported survivors. This incident highlights Russia’s complex role in Sudan, where the Wagner Group has been supplying weapons to the RSF in their ongoing conflict with government forces led by Abdel Fattah al-Burhan. The Russian embassy in Sudan is investigating the circumstances of the crash.
The Path to Peace
Ukraine’s Foreign Ministry has criticized UN Secretary-General Antonio Guterres for meeting with Russian President Vladimir Putin in Kazan during a BRICS summit, his first visit to Russia in over two years. The Ministry noted that while Guterres declined Ukraine’s invitation to a Global Peace Summit in Switzerland, he accepted Putin’s invitation. The meeting is expected to discuss the Middle East crisis and Ukraine situation, though Guterres has previously called for a “just peace” respecting Ukraine’s territorial integrity.
President Zelensky revealed on October 21 that Germany remains skeptical about Ukraine joining NATO, citing concerns over Russia’s reaction. While most NATO members support Ukraine’s membership invitation within its internationally recognized borders, including France, Britain, and Italy, some countries remain hesitant. Zelensky expressed hope for more positive U.S. support after its November presidential election, which could influence other hesitant members like Hungary and Slovakia. Ukraine filed its NATO application in September 2022, with Zelensky recently making NATO membership a top priority in his five-point victory plan, though the alliance has not yet committed to a definitive timeline for Ukraine’s accession.
Poland’s Deputy Foreign Minister Bartoszewsk said on October 21 that Warsaw wants to review the classified sections of President Zelensky’s recently presented victory plan. While Poland remains supportive of Ukraine’s NATO membership and has been a major ally since Russia’s 2022 invasion, it was not among countries given access to the plan’s three confidential appendices. The five-point plan includes NATO membership, defense, deterrence of Russian aggression, economic cooperation, and post-war security. Prime Minister Tusk indicated that Ukraine’s plan will be reevaluated after the U.S. presidential election.
Situation On The Land, Sea, and Air in Ukraine
The Institute for the Study of War (ISW) reported on Monday that Russian forces continue to commit war crimes in Ukraine, including the execution of POWs and use of chemical weapons. A specific incident was noted near Selydove, Donetsk Oblast, where two unarmed Ukrainian POWs were executed on October 18. Russian forces have also been documented using chloropicrin, a banned World War I-era chemical weapon, against Ukrainian forces. The US Department of State confirmed in May that Russia’s use of these chemical agents violates the Chemical Weapons Convention, to which Russia is a signatory.
Ukrainian Operations in the Russian Federation – Initiative Russia
Russian forces advanced in Kursk Oblast, with geolocated footage showing progress south of Sheptukhovka near Korenevo. Intense fighting was reported around Zeleny Shlyakh, Novoivanovka, and Lyubimovka, with Ukrainian forces deploying M1 Abrams tanks near Novoivanovka for the first time in this region. Additional combat was reported near Novy Put in Glushkovsky Raion.
Ukrainian forces conducted targeted drone strikes on Russian distilleries and industrial facilities overnight across Tula, Tambov, and Voronezh oblasts, with strikes hitting facilities in Yefremov (also affecting nearby MVD and FSB buildings), Luzhkovsky, and Rasskozovo (specifically the Biokhim distillery), plus an additional facility in Voronezh Oblast where a minor fire was reported; Russian officials claimed their air defenses intercepted multiple drones over several regions including Bryansk, Belgorod, and Kursk, with no casualties reported, and while Ukraine hasn’t officially confirmed these attacks, Ukrainian officials stated these alcohol factories are used to produce military fuel and explosives for Russian forces, and the strikes align with Ukraine’s strategy of targeting Russian military infrastructure.
Kharkiv Front – Initiative Russia
Russian forces attempted attacks near Kharkiv City targeting the areas of Vovchansk, Starytsya, and Lyptsi, but failed to advance. Russian forces have started using wired drones in the region, though Ukrainian forces report they have already developed countermeasures against these new weapons.
Luhansk Front – Initiative Russia
Russian forces launched multiple attacks along the Kupyansk-Svatove-Kreminna line. While Russia claimed to have captured Novosadove and made advances near Stelmakhivka, these claims remain unconfirmed. Russian forces targeted several settlements including Lyman Pershyi, Petropavlivka, Zeleniy Hai, Lozova, Pishchane, Dzherelne, Vyshneve, Hrekivka, Katerynivka, Novomykhailivka, Makiivka, Torske, and Terny.
Donetsk Front – Initiative Russia
Siversk
Russian forces launched attacks near Siversk targeting the settlements of Verkhnokamyanske (to the east), Vyimka (southeast), and Pereizne (south). No changes to the frontline were confirmed during these operations.
Chasiv Yar
Russian forces continued attacks near Chasiv Yar, particularly around Vasyukivka and Chasiv Yar itself. Taking advantage of foggy conditions, Russian forces crossed the Siverskyi-Donets Donbas Canal.
Toretsk
Russian forces attacked near Toretsk and Shcherbynivka. A Russian military blogger reports that significant reinforcements are being moved to Toretsk, which is reportedly now Russia’s main attack direction. No changes to the frontline were confirmed.
Pokrovsk
Russian forces attacked near Pokrovsk targeting multiple settlements including Promin, Sukha Balka, Vozdvyzhenka, Myrolyubivka, Selydove, Lysivka, Mykhailivka, Krasnyi Yar, Krutyi Yar, Hirnyk, Novodmytrivka, Zoryane, Novoselydivka, and Izmailivka. Ukrainian forces remain active west of Krasnyi Yar. Rainy conditions have reduced Russian drone operations but not artillery. Ukrainian electronic warfare systems are successfully disabling about half of the approaching Russian drones. No confirmed Russian advances were reported.
West of Donetsk City
Russian forces advanced east of Kurakhove along the Marinka-Kurakhove highway. Ukrainian forces repelled a Russian mechanized assault in the area. Russian attacks continued near the settlements of Hostre, Dalne, and Heorhiivka.
Southwest of Donetsk City
Russian forces advanced near Vuhledar with confirmed progress in eastern Antonivka. Attacks continued at Antonivka, Katerynivka, Yelyzavetivka, Bohoyavlenka, Novoukrainka, and Zolota Nyva.
Zaporizhia Front – Initiative Russia
Zaporizhia-Donetsk Border Area
Russian snipers are reportedly active near Polohy, south of Hulyaipole, in the Donetsk-Zaporizhia border region. No other ground activity was reported by either side.
Zaporizhia Line
Russian forces attacked near Mala Tokmachka, northeast of Robotyne but made no confirmed advances. Ukrainian forces launched counterattacks in Kamyanske, northwest of Robotyne, while Russian units were active in the Polohy area.
Kherson (Dnipro River) Front – Initiative Russia
Russian forces attacked in eastern Kherson Oblast but made no confirmed advances.
Ukraine News
Russian forces launched 60 drones against Ukraine overnight, primarily targeting Sumy Oblast. Ukrainian forces shot down 42 drones across multiple regions, with Sumy City suffering the worst impact – three civilians were killed, and infrastructure was damaged. Some drones were lost to electronic warfare, while others strayed into Belarusian and Russian airspace.
According to U.N. Population Fund regional director Florence Bauer, Ukraine’s population has decreased by over 10 million since Russia’s initial 2014 invasion, with the situation worsening after the 2022 full-scale invasion. As of January 2024, Ukraine’s population stands at 37.441 million, with 6.7 million refugees having fled the country. The birth rate has plummeted to one child per woman, the lowest in Europe. The U.N. projects Ukraine’s population could fall to 15.3 million by 2100. Ukraine is working with the UNFPA on a national demographic strategy focusing on human capital development rather than just increasing birth rates.
President Volodymyr Zelensky denied rumors about the potential dismissal of military intelligence chief Kyrylo Budanov and Defense Minister Rustem Umerov on October 21. The speculation arose after Umerov dismissed two of Budanov’s deputies in September without consulting him. Budanov, 38, has led Ukraine’s military intelligence since August 2020. The clarification comes amid recent government reshuffles, where Zelensky updated parts of the Cabinet of Ministers and Presidential Office, citing a “need for new energy.”
Innocent Victims Of War
The casualty count of civilians in the past 24 hours: (Russian War Crimes)
DEATHS: 11 INJURIES: 37
In an attack on the city of Sumy, three people were killed, including a child, and one person was injured when houses were targeted.
A Russian missile struck Zaporizhzhia, killing three people and wounding 19 others, including an eight-year-old girl.
Russian forces launched a missile attack on Kryvyi Rih in Ukraine’s Dnipropetrovsk Oblast, leaving six people injured. In a separate strike on the Nikopol district, a 48-year-old man was wounded.
Russian attacks in Ukraine’s Donetsk Oblast killed four people – two in Myrnohrad and two others in Kurakhove and Novoukrainka. Five additional people were wounded in the region.
A Russian drone strike on the village of Senkove in Kharkiv Oblast wounded a 31-year-old man.
Russian forces attacked 24 settlements in Kherson Oblast, including the city of Kherson, killing one person and wounding four others. The strikes damaged homes, infrastructure, vehicles, and utility lines.
The aftermath of a Russian attack on the city of Sumy. (Sumy City Council)
Ukrainian Mobilization and Industrial Defense Base
President Zelensky ordered the dissolution of medical examination commissions by December 31 following revelations of widespread corruption in disability status certification, with working groups set to verify existing disability certificates within three months and immediate pension payment inspections for officials starting today; the Security Service of Ukraine (SBU) uncovered corruption schemes in Rivne, Mykolaiv, Khmelnytskyi, and Kharkiv regions, where officials were found using these commissions to fraudulently obtain disability status to avoid military service and gain pension benefits, leading to the cancellation of 4,106 fake certificates, with sixty-four officials charged and nine suspects convicted; this scandal led to the resignation of Prosecutor General Andriy Kostin today, who had served since July 2022 and supported President Zelensky’s position that all offenders should be held accountable.
Ukraine’s Allies
South Korea is considering sending military intelligence personnel and weapons to Ukraine in response to North Korea’s reported troop deployment to Russia, with a South Korean government source indicating to Yonhap agency they may send intelligence units to monitor North Korean forces, analyze their warfare tactics, and interrogate captured soldiers; while prioritizing defensive weapons, South Korea is also weighing options for indirect lethal aid delivery despite Russian President Putin’s earlier warnings against such support, marking a shift that follows the June 2023 Russian-North Korean strategic partnership agreement, which prompted South Korea to reconsider its policy against sending arms to Ukraine.
The U.K. announced a £2.26 billion ($2.9 billion) loan to Ukraine, part of a larger G7 initiative to provide $50 billion in aid by year’s end. The loan will be backed by profits from frozen Russian assets and directed toward Ukraine’s military needs, including artillery, air defense, and long-range drone development. This adds to Britain’s existing annual support of £3 billion. The funding is part of a broader plan using profits from $300 billion in frozen Russian sovereign assets, with European countries holding approximately two-thirds of these assets. The EU plans to begin distributing funds in early 2024.
The G7 plans to maintain frozen Russian assets (approximately $300 billion) even after the war ends until Russia pays for Ukraine’s damages, according to Nikkei news agency. The G7 will issue a statement confirming this position and their $50 billion loan guarantee to Ukraine, which includes a €35 billion contribution from the European Union. The World Bank estimates Russia’s damage to Ukrainian infrastructure at $486 billion. The loan, to be repaid using interest from frozen Russian assets, will begin distribution in early 2024, with Ukraine having flexibility in how to use the funds.
Russia News
A recent poll by Russian opposition organization Chronicles suggests that while 78% of Russians approve of Putin’s presidency, they want policies that contradict his actions. Most respondents prioritize domestic social and economic issues (83%), favor a negotiated peace with Ukraine (61%), and support improved Western relations (43%). Despite this public sentiment, Putin continues to prioritize military spending over social programs and maintains an uncompromising stance on Ukraine, while attempting to distance himself from unpopular government decisions.
The Kremlin posthumously awarded the Order of Courage to Junior Sergeant Dmitry Lysakovsky (known as Goodwin), a drone operator who died on September 13. His death sparked controversy as he was reportedly killed after being forced into a frontal assault as punishment for criticizing command decisions. The award appears to be an attempt to calm outrage among Russian military bloggers who criticized the military’s practice of using dangerous assignments as punishment for dissent.
Russian War Losses (Today/Total)
| Troops +1460
683040 |
Tanks +9
9088 |
Artillery +51
19674 |
Arm. VEH +30
18229 |
Aircraft
369 |
Heli
329 |
Ships
28 |
Russian Mobilization and Defense Industrial Base
During the BRICS summit, India’s Foreign Secretary reported that 85 Indian citizens who were involuntarily recruited into the Russian military have been returned home, with negotiations planned for 20 more during the summit. Russia is likely using this summit to strengthen ties with non-Western nations and potentially establish deals to bypass Western sanctions related to its war in Ukraine.
Russian state media TASS reports that company TsBK has unveiled a new mini-hexacopter drone. This first-person view (FPV) drone can carry 6 kilograms and fly up to 12 kilometers without special equipment, or 20 kilometers with signal boosters.
Russia’s Allies
According to Ukrainian intelligence chief Kyrylo Budanov, approximately 10,000-11,000 North Korean soldiers are being prepared to join Russian forces, with an initial group of 2,600 troops expected to arrive in Russia’s Kursk Oblast on October 23, where Ukraine began a cross-border operation in August. A Western official confirms that 10,000 North Korean soldiers are already in Russia and will be combat-ready by November 1, with Ukrainian President Zelensky revealing that two North Korean brigades of 6,000 personnel each are currently in training. Recent reports indicate 18 North Korean soldiers were detained after abandoning their positions in Kursk Oblast, and North Korean officers have already been spotted in occupied Ukrainian territories.
North Korea has also sent fighter pilots to Vladivostok, Russia, marking their first overseas deployment since the Vietnam War, potentially to train on Russian aircraft or to help address Russia’s pilot shortages. Following a security agreement between Russian President Putin and North Korean leader Kim Jong-Un, North Korea has become Russia’s primary weapons supplier, providing ballistic missiles and millions of artillery shells. In exchange, Russia has reportedly given North Korea technology for spy satellites, tanks, and aircraft. While the Kremlin calls these reports “contradictory” without confirming or denying them, video evidence has emerged showing North Korean troops at Russian training camps.
President Zelensky suggests North Korea’s increasing support is financially motivated, citing North Korea’s poverty as a reason for sending troops, while noting potential operational challenges for North Korean troops in Ukraine, particularly due to language barriers. North Korea has denied sending troops at a UN meeting, calling these reports “groundless rumors” while describing Moscow-Pyongyang relations as “legitimate, friendly and cooperative.” NATO and the U.S. have expressed concern about this escalation, with the U.S. viewing it as a sign of Moscow’s “desperation.” Zelensky urged allies to respond with concrete actions, not just words, to stop Russia and its allies from expanding the war.
Controlling the Narrative and Russian Propaganda
Russia’s ambassador to London, Andrei Kelin, claimed in a BBC interview that Ukraine’s resistance is weakening as Russian forces advance, controlling about 18% of Ukrainian territory. He accused the UK of waging a “proxy war” by supplying weapons to Ukraine.
Source Material
Institute for the Study of War – understandingwar.org
The Kyiv Independent – kyivindependent.com
Kyiv Post – kyivpost.com