Summary of the day: Russian forces conducted widespread missile strikes across Ukraine, including a Kh-101 cruise missile hitting the Okhmatdyt Children’s Hospital in central Kyiv. Russian officials attempted to deflect responsibility for the strike with false claims. Meanwhile, Ukrainian forces regained lost positions in Chasiv Yar, while Russian forces advanced near Donetsk City and in western Zaporizhia Oblast. Hungarian Prime Minister Orban and Chinese President Xi continued to position themselves as potential mediators for the war, despite Putin’s rejection of serious negotiations. Russian Prime Minister Mishustin called for a fivefold increase in domestic drone production by 2030.
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Peace Talks
Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orban and Chinese President Xi Jinping met in Beijing, positioning themselves as potential mediators for ending the war in Ukraine. Orban praised China’s peace initiative, while Xi called for direct Russia-Ukraine negotiations and urged major powers to support a ceasefire. However, this posturing contradicts Orban’s opposition to EU support for Ukraine and reports of China providing Russia with dual-use goods. Ukrainian President Zelensky responded that only strong alliances could stop the war, not bilateral discussions with Putin. He suggested that countries with significant economic and military influence over Russia, like the US, China, and the EU, could lead effective mediation efforts. This comes despite Putin’s recent rejection of ceasefire negotiations and demands for Ukrainian capitulation.
Situation On The Land, Sea, and Air in Ukraine
Ukraine’s intelligence reported that on July 6, their forces targeted two Russian military sites in Donetsk Oblast, hitting a logistics center with tanks and ammunition in Debaltseve, and a communication jamming station in Novoluhanske.
The Russian Ministry of Defense stated that Russian Iskander missiles took out three Ukrainian HIMARS launchers near Klapaya, Kherson Oblast.
Kharkiv Front – Initiative None
Russian forces continued offensive operations in northern Kharkiv Oblast without confirmed advances. Russian sources reported ongoing Ukrainian counterattacks near Hlyboke and heavy fighting in Vovchansk. The Ukrainian General Staff reported Russian ground attacks near Hlyboke, Lyptsi, Starytsya, Tykhe, and Vovchansk.
Luhansk Front – Initiative Russia
Russian forces continued offensive operations along the Kupyansk-Svatove-Kreminna line without confirmed advances. They reportedly struck Ukrainian crossings over the Oskil River, potentially forcing some Ukrainian troops to the west bank. Russian sources claimed an 800-meter advance near Pishchane. Ukrainian officials reported Russian ground attacks in multiple locations along this line, including near Synkivka, Pishchane, Stelmakhivka, Makiivka, Torske, and in the Serebryanske forest area.
Donetsk Front – Initiative Russia
Siversk
Russian forces continued attacks in the Siversk direction without confirmed frontline changes. Fighting occurred near Bilohorivka, Verkhnokamyanske, Spirne, Rozdolivka, and Vesele.
Chasiv Yar
Ukrainian forces advanced along Oleh Koshovyi Street in western Kanal Microraion, Chasiv Yar. A Russian source claimed their forces may have crossed the Siverskyi Donets-Donbas Canal, but this is unconfirmed. Fighting continued in multiple areas around Chasiv Yar, including Kanal Microraion, Bohdanivka, Kalynivka, Hryhorivka, Andriivka, Klishchiivka, and Bila Hora.
Toretsk
Russian forces continued offensive operations in the Toretsk direction without confirmed frontline changes. A Russian source claimed a 100-meter advance in southern Niu York, occupying about 30% of the settlement, though ISW assesses Russian control at 16%. Fighting continued near Toretsk, Pivnichne, and Niu York.
Avdiivka
Russian forces continued offensive operations in the Avdiivka direction without confirmed frontline changes. Russian sources claimed advances in multiple areas north and northwest of Avdiivka, including near Novokalynove, Novobakhmutivka, Novooleksandrivka, Prohres, Voskhod, and Novoselivka Persha. However, these claims lack visual evidence. Fighting also continued in various locations northwest and west of Avdiivka, including Vozdvyzhenka, Lozuvatske, Timofiivka, Yevhenivka, Yasnobrodivka, Umanske, and Karlivka.
Southwest of Donetsk City
Russian troops recently made gains southwest of Donetsk City, pushing forward in areas west and southwest of the city. Confirmed footage from July 7 shows advancements west of Solodke, with ongoing clashes near Krasnohorivka, Heorhiivka, Kostyantynivka, and Paraskoviivka.
Zaporizhia Front – Initiative Russia
Zaporizhia-Donetsk Border Area
Ongoing skirmishes occurred near the Donetsk-Zaporizhia border, specifically around the areas of Makarivka, Urozhaine, and Staromayorske. Russian troops were active near Marfopil, southwest of Velyka Novosilka.
Zaporizhia Line
Russian forces made advances in western Zaporizhia Oblast, particularly northwest of Verbove, east of Robotyne, as confirmed by geolocated footage from July 7. Additional minor advancements in the same area were also reported. Clashes continued near Robotyne and Mala Tokmachka. Russian military units were active in the region, with reported air strikes near Novoselivka and troop movements near Marfopil and Novopokrovka.
Kherson (Dnipro River) Front – Initiative None
Ongoing military skirmishes occurred in eastern Kherson Oblast, particularly near Krynky and the Dnipro River Delta islands.
Ukraine News
Russian forces conducted two rounds of missile strikes across Ukraine, targeting critical infrastructure and civilian areas. Ukrainian air defense systems intercepted many of the missiles. Ukrainian President Zelensky reported that Russian forces targeted civilian infrastructure in multiple cities, including Kyiv, Dnipro, Kryvyi Rih, Slovyansk, and Kramatorsk.
Russian forces struck the Okhmatdyt Children’s Hospital in Kyiv with a Kh-101 missile, causing extensive damage. Debris from other missiles also hit the Isida Maternity Hospital in Kyiv. The attacks were part of a larger missile strike across Ukraine, damaging residential areas in Kyiv and Dnipro. Ukrainian officials reported 22 deaths and 74 injured in Kyiv, and 11 deaths and 64 injured in Dnipropetrovsk Oblast. President Zelensky announced an emergency UN Security Council session in response to the strikes, which is currently presided over by Russia.
Russian forces employed new tactics in their July 8 missile strikes on Ukraine, potentially to maximize damage. Former Ukrainian Air Forces Spokesperson Colonel Yuriy Ihnat reported that Russian cruise missiles flew at extremely low altitudes, some as low as 50 meters above ground. This tactic gives Ukrainian air defense systems very little time to respond. Additionally, Russian forces are reducing the electromagnetic signatures of their drones until the last moment, making detection difficult. These adaptations represent a new challenge for Ukrainian air defenses, requiring a response with adequate Western-provided air defense systems. Russia has consistently modified its strike packages to exploit Ukraine’s air defense shortages.
Ukraine’s Allies
Ukraine and Poland signed a comprehensive bilateral security agreement. Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky and Polish Prime Minister Donald Tusk met in Warsaw to finalize the pact, which includes commitments to security, defense, military, political, and economic cooperation. Key provisions include the potential transfer of a squadron of MiG-29 fighter aircraft to Ukraine and discussions on Polish air defenses intercepting threats over Ukrainian airspace. Additionally, the agreement supports Ukraine’s bid to join the European Union.
Ukraine is receiving increased military support from its allies. The UK has announced a new aid package consisting of 250,000 rounds of 50mm ammunition, 90 Brimstone anti-armor missiles, 50 boats, 40 demining vehicles, 10 AS-90 155mm artillery systems, 32 replacement barrels, and 61 bulldozers. The UK’s new Defense Minister, John Healy, confirmed the acceleration of previous commitments to be fulfilled by mid-October 2024. Additionally, Germany has delivered a third Patriot air defense system, and Latvia plans to send 2,500 drones worth approximately €4 million through the Ukraine Drone Coalition, with the first batch arriving soon.
Russia News
Russian Vice Admiral Sergei Lipilin has been appointed as the new Commander of the Russian Baltic Fleet, replacing Vice Admiral Vladimir Vorobyov. Lipilin, who previously served as the fleet’s Chief of Staff and First Deputy Commander since 2021, was officially introduced at a ceremony in Kronstadt, St. Petersburg. Vorobyov has been reassigned as Deputy Commander-in-Chief of the Russian Navy.
Russian Mobilization and Defense Industrial Base
Russian Prime Minister Mikhail Mishustin announced plans to quintuple the country’s drone production by 2030. He emphasized the need for Russia to localize production of key drone models and mentioned that the government is considering grants and subsidies to support drone research, design, and manufacturing.
Russian authorities are intensifying mobilization in occupied Ukraine, aiming to expand their military reserves. The Ukrainian Resistance Center reported that officials in occupied Kherson Oblast have initiated a plan to establish a “Cossack” cooperative involving all male residents. In March 2024, Russian President Vladimir Putin authorized members of the All-Russian Cossack Society within military and security service reserves to join the mobilization reserve. Furthermore, in June 2024, control of the Cossack Cadet corps was transferred to the Russian Ministry of Defense, suggesting that Cossack groups in occupied Ukraine will likely be governed by the MoD as well.
Russian President Vladimir Putin signed a decree allowing the country’s weapons designers to use foreign intellectual property for developing new military equipment. This move comes as the European Union tightens intellectual property restrictions for Russian entities and imposes sanctions on EU businesses that sell intellectual property related to sanctioned materials to Russia.
A well-known Russian military blogger is increasing production of first-person view (FPV) strike drones for battlefield use. However, this initiative has faced criticism from other Russian military bloggers, who argue that such grassroots manufacturing efforts are producing low-quality systems.
Russian Narrative and Propaganda
Russian officials and media sources are attempting to deflect responsibility for the missile strike on Okhmatdyt Children’s Hospital in Kyiv. They’ve made various false claims, including that Ukraine was using the hospital for military purposes or storing missiles there, and that Ukrainian air defense missiles caused the damage. Russian sources also misrepresented video evidence, falsely claiming the missile was Ukrainian. However, the missile’s trajectory and components match a Russian Kh-101 cruise missile, as confirmed by Ukrainian investigators. Some Russian sources claimed they were targeting a nearby machine building plant, but other missiles actually hit that target during the strike.
Russian information operations falsely claim the Okhmatdyt Children’s Hospital was a legitimate military target, suggesting it was partially or fully a military hospital. However, Okhmatdyt is Ukraine’s largest children’s hospital, treating up to 18,000 children annually. The Geneva Convention, which Russia has signed, protects civilian hospitals even if they contain wounded military personnel. The convention requires a warning before attacking a hospital suspected of harmful military activity, which Russia did not provide. Russian claims about Ukrainian air defense causing the damage also don’t absolve Russia of responsibility, as Ukraine wouldn’t need to defend against these strikes if Russia hadn’t invaded.
Russian officials are actively discrediting international human rights bodies to shift focus from their own violations in Ukraine. Grigory Lukyantsev of the Russian Ministry of Foreign Affairs criticized the European Court of Human Rights as a tool of anti-Russian propaganda and accused the West of manipulating the UN Human Rights Council for its own purposes. Simultaneously, a notable Russian military blogger falsely attributed war crimes in Bucha, well-documented against Russian forces, to Ukrainian forces and foreign mercenaries.
Source Material
Institute for the Study of War – understandingwar.org