Summary of the day: Russian authorities reportedly attempted to assassinate key European defense industry figures, likely to disrupt Western aid to Ukraine and destabilize NATO. Meanwhile, Ukrainian forces advanced north of Kharkiv City, while Russian forces made gains in several areas including south of Siversk and northwest of Avdiivka. In diplomatic developments, Ukraine plans to hold a second Global Peace Summit by the end of 2024 and may invite Russia, while the EU is considering restricting Hungary’s power as EU Council president due to Prime Minister Orban’s meeting with Putin.
What Can I Do To Help Ukraine? This is a question I receive all the time. We at Transform Ukraine are building longer-term housing for internally displaced Ukrainians. Visit Rebuild Ukraine for how you can assist in housing a Ukrainian family displaced by the war.
Beyond Ukraine – March Towards World War
Russia reportedly planned to assassinate European defense industry leaders, including the CEO of German arms manufacturer Rheinmetall. This attempt, uncovered by US intelligence, aimed to disrupt Western aid to Ukraine and destabilize NATO. The German government foiled the plot after being informed. This is part of Russia’s wider efforts to deter support for Ukraine through sabotage and hybrid warfare operations.
Finnish authorities reported increased GPS and radar disruptions in the Gulf of Finland, likely originating from Russia. A maritime pilot experienced severe malfunctions while guiding boats near Finland’s southern coast. This aligns with previous incidents of Russian GPS jamming affecting Baltic states and other parts of Europe. The interference has impacted aviation and maritime operations, including forcing flight cancellations. These actions are likely part of Russia’s intensifying hybrid campaign targeting NATO states to undermine support for Ukraine and NATO unity.
Russian officials are criticizing the US decision to deploy long-range missiles to Germany, calling it a threat to international security and Russia. This criticism comes despite Russia’s own escalatory actions, including nuclear exercises and abandoning arms control treaties. The Kremlin’s rhetoric appears to be part of a strategy to influence Western support for Ukraine.
Belarusian and Chinese military forces are conducting joint anti-terrorist training exercises near Brest, Belarus, according to the Belarusian Ministry of Defense.
Peace Talks
Ukraine plans to hold a second Global Peace Summit by the end of 2024 and intends to invite Russia. This follows the first summit in Switzerland, which Russia did not attend. Ukraine aims to create a global consensus on negotiations and present a joint peace plan to Russia. However, Russian President Putin has shown opposition to any agreement short of Ukrainian surrender, despite other Kremlin officials expressing interest in negotiations.
Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orban met with Russian President Vladimir Putin in Moscow, claiming to seek peace negotiations for Ukraine. This action has sparked controversy within the EU, with some members considering restricting Hungary’s power as EU Council president. Orban’s visit may have violated EU treaties, and some EU states are discussing boycotting ministerial meetings in Hungary. This situation highlights ongoing tensions between Hungary’s approach to Russia and the broader EU stance on the Ukraine conflict.
Russian official Dmitry Medvedev stated that Russia will not accept any negotiated peace settlements with Ukraine, following NATO’s declaration that Ukraine’s path to NATO membership is “irreversible.”
Situation On The Land, Sea, and Air in Ukraine
Kharkiv Front – Initiative None
Ukrainian forces made small advances north of Kharkiv City, particularly near Hlyboke. Russian sources reported conflicting information about Russian forces crossing the Vovcha River in Vovchansk. Fighting continues in both areas. The Russian Africa Corps, previously confirmed to be in the region, was reportedly seen operating drones in the Kharkiv direction.
Luhansk Front – Initiative Russia
Russian forces continued offensive operations along the Kupyansk-Svatove-Kreminna line, with claimed advances in several areas including near Synkivka, Petropavlivka, and Makiivka. However, there were no confirmed changes to the frontline. Russian forces also conducted assaults near Nevske and launched glide bomb strikes against Borova. Claims of Russian forces seizing eastern Stelmakhivka were denied by some sources.
Donetsk Front – Initiative Russia
Siversk
Russian forces made a small advance south of Siversk, specifically northeast of Rozdolivka. They continued offensive operations in the Siversk area, including near Rozdolivka and Verkhnokamyanske.
Chasiv Yar
Russian forces continued offensive operations near Chasiv Yar, with claims of advances towards the Siverskyi-Donets Donbas Canal. However, there were no confirmed changes to the frontline. Ukrainian forces are reportedly using the canal as a defensive barrier. Russian operations also continued east of Chasiv Yar near Ivanivske.
Toretsk
Russian forces continued offensive operations near Toretsk, with claims of advances in Pivdenne, Niu York, and east of Oleksandropil. However, no confirmed changes to the frontline were reported. The fighting in this sector involves multiple Russian units, highlighting the intensity of operations in the Toretsk direction.
Avdiivka
Russian forces made advances northwest of Avdiivka, capturing Voskhod and progressing towards Novoselivka Persha. They also claimed advances in several other areas, including Yevhenivka and west of Umanske, though these claims are unconfirmed. Offensive operations continued in multiple locations around Avdiivka, with Russian units like the “Somalia” Battalion reportedly involved in the fighting near Karlivka.
Southwest of Donetsk City
Russian forces advanced in northeastern Krasnohorivka, west of Donetsk City. They continued offensive operations in several areas west and southwest of Donetsk City, including near Krasnohorivka, Heorhiivka, Kostyantynivka, Paraskoviivka, and Vodyane.
Zaporizhia Front – Initiative Russia
Zaporizhia-Donetsk Border Area
Positional fighting continued near Urozhaine in the Donetsk-Zaporizhia Oblast border area.
Zaporizhia Line
Russian forces continued attacks near Hulyaipole, Robotyne, and northwest of Verbove in western Zaporizhia Oblast, with no confirmed frontline changes. A Russian source claimed an advance near Mala Tokmachka. Various Russian units, including elements of motorized rifle, airborne, and special forces regiments, are reportedly operating in this area.
Kherson (Dnipro River) Front – Initiative None
A Russian source claims that Russian forces control most islands in the Dnipro River Delta and continued ground attacks in the area.
Ukraine News
Russia launched two Iskander-M ballistic missiles at Sumy Oblast and six Shahed drones towards various Ukrainian regions. Ukrainian forces reportedly shot down all six drones over Mykolaiv, Khmelnytskyi, Lviv, and Ivano-Frankivsk oblasts.
Russia News
Russia’s federal censor Roskomnadzor may require social media accounts with over 1,000 daily viewers to provide identifying information to the government. This move aims to increase control over the Russian information space. Accounts that don’t comply may be prohibited from hosting Russian company advertisements, potentially impacting their revenue. This policy particularly targets smaller accounts claiming insider information about Russian government, military, or companies, as the government likely already knows the identities behind larger accounts.
The Russian Federal Security Service (FSB) claims to have stopped a terrorist attack on an Orthodox church in Maykop, Republic of Adygea. They say a Central Asian man, allegedly linked to an international terrorist group, planned to kill clergy and guards and burn the church. The FSB reportedly found prohibited materials, a terrorist flag, a knife, and parts for an incendiary device. An investigation has been opened into the incident.
Russian Mobilization and Defense Industrial Base
The Russian Republic of Tatarstan is offering financial incentives for military recruitment. Contract servicemembers can receive 100,000 rubles (about $1,150) for recruiting others, and new recruits can get 1.05 million rubles (about $12,000) for signing up before July 31. This is part of Russia’s ongoing efforts to boost military enlistment.
Russian authorities are developing a system to prevent draft dodgers from leaving the country. The “Voskhod” Research Institute plans to create software by September 2, 2024, that will allow the military and security services to share information about military summonses. This system aims to stop individuals from fleeing Russia after receiving a draft notice.
The Russian Defense Ministry is trying to show it provides good medical care and housing for soldiers in Ukraine. A deputy minister inspected medical facilities, and the ministry claimed to address housing issues. However, some Russian ultranationalists have complained about inadequate care for injured soldiers and improper return of injured personnel to combat.
Rostec, a Russian state-owned defense company, is testing new armored plates to protect critical facilities from various threats, including drone attacks. These plates are designed to safeguard important sites such as oil and gas storage, ammunition depots, and energy infrastructure.
A Russian military blogger has urged Russia to produce and use NATO-standard 155mm artillery systems, citing their longer range and higher accuracy compared to current Russian artillery. This suggestion comes from observing Ukrainian forces effectively using such systems in the ongoing conflict.
Russia’s Allies
NATO has labeled China as a “decisive enabler” of Russia’s war in Ukraine. NATO officials stated that China is providing Russia with equipment, microelectronics, and tools for weapons production. The US Secretary of State previously noted that China’s exports have significantly boosted Russia’s defense production, with Russia obtaining most of its machine tools and microelectronics from China.
Russian Narrative and Propaganda
The Russian Foreign Intelligence Service (SVR) repeated standard Kremlin claims attempting to portray Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky as untrustworthy to both Ukrainians and international allies.
Source Material
Institute for the Study of War – understandingwar.org