Summary of the day: Colonel General Oleksandr Syrskyi of Ukraine noted that despite Russia’s significant boost in troops and equipment over the past two and a half years, the escalation does not reflect a new surge but underscores the longstanding resource challenges faced by Ukrainian forces. Meanwhile, Ukrainian Foreign Minister Dmytro Kuleba met with his Chinese counterpart in Guangzhou, discussing China’s potential involvement in mediating the war’s resolution. On the same day, the Russian State Duma passed an amendment that restricts soldiers from using personal communication devices on the frontlines, a move criticized by various Russian political factions. In Moscow, an assassination attempt targeted a senior Russian military intelligence officer, reflecting ongoing internal tensions. On the battlefield, Russian troops made minor territorial gains around Kharkiv, Avdiivka, and Donetsk, as Russia intensifies efforts to bolster military enlistment through financial incentives.
Picture of the day:
A view of the damage afterthea Russian missile attack on Kharkiv. Russian forces attacked the city multiple times throughout the day. One strike hit the office of the Swiss Foundation for Mine Action (FSD) and damaged nearby residential buildings. (Kharkiv Regional Military Administration/Handout/Anadolu via Getty Images)
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Beyond Ukraine – March Towards World War
During an attack on Ukraine’s Odesa region, Russian drones also struck Romania, causing fires near the village of Niculițel, just 7 kilometers from the Ukrainian border. Romanian authorities detected three Shahed UAVs, with border guards spotting the drones approaching at 2:10 a.m. Subsequent explosions were confirmed by the crew of an IAR-330 helicopter from the 57th Mihail Kogălniceanu Air Base, leading to emergency alerts in northern Tulcea County. The situation stabilized with the lifting of the air raid alert at 3:46 a.m.
The Georgian State Security Service (SUS) announced investigations into former Georgian officials and Ukrainian law enforcement personnel, accusing them of plotting to violently overthrow the government and targeting Bidzina Ivanishvili, the founder of the Georgian Dream Party. The SUS has charged several Georgian volunteers who fought with Ukrainian forces with conspiracy and terrorism and placed about 300 Georgians from the Georgian Legion on Georgia’s wanted list, claiming they are inciting protests, notably against the “foreign agents” bill. Previously, the SUS made unverified coup plot allegations involving Georgians in Ukrainian military roles. These actions support the Georgian Dream Party’s agenda to suppress political opposition under the guise of national security and may involve implicating Russian actors in future to justify authoritarian measures. Despite Georgian public distrust towards Russia due to historical conflicts, Georgia is increasingly viewed as moving closer to Russia. Ukraine has not commented on the accusations, and Ukraine’s Foreign Ministry previously denied similar allegations, accusing the Georgian government of using anti-Ukraine rhetoric for internal political gains. Tensions have risen, especially after Kyiv refused Georgia’s request to extradite ex-officials associated with imprisoned former President Mikheil Saakashvili. Despite these tensions, opinion polls show strong pro-Ukraine sentiment among Georgians.
Russian Foreign Ministry spokesperson Maria Zakharova accused Moldova of “Romanianization” and “Ukrainization” under the pretense of European integration. She criticized Moldovan President Maia Sandu for fostering anti-Russian sentiments. This rhetoric aligns with the Kremlin’s broader narrative that Moldova’s EU aspirations threaten its national identity, part of ongoing efforts to destabilize Moldova and hinder its EU accession.
The Russian Ministry of Defense claimed that they prevented UK Royal Air Force aircraft from entering what Russia considers its airspace over the Black Sea. They reported that a Russian Su-27 fighter was deployed after two RAF aircraft were detected approaching. The RAF planes subsequently turned around. Russian media, including TASS, reported that the Su-27 escorted the RAF aircraft away. This claim may also serve to reinforce Russia’s contentious territorial claims over Crimea and the Black Sea region.
The Road To Peace
Ukrainian Foreign Minister Dmytro Kuleba met with China’s Foreign Minister Wang Yi in Guangzhou to discuss Ukraine’s war and potential Chinese mediation. While Kuleba stressed Ukraine’s openness to negotiations under appropriate conditions and emphasized the strategic benefit of peace for China, Wang noted both Ukraine and Russia’s interest in talks, though he suggested the timing remains unsuitable. He also highlighted China’s role in promoting a Brazil-coordinated peace plan. This meeting underscored differing perspectives on negotiation readiness, with China possibly leaning towards Russia’s narrative by suggesting Ukraine might be resisting negotiations, despite Western assessments of Russia’s reluctance for genuine peace talks. Concurrently, Kremlin spokesperson Dmitry Peskov indicated that Ukraine’s recent openness to peace talks aligns with Russia’s stance, although specific details are still lacking. Despite claiming openness to dialogue, Russia insists on Ukraine’s withdrawal from territories annexed in 2022, a demand Kyiv rejects, alongside Moscow’s dismissal of Ukraine’s call for a full Russian military withdrawal. Amid these tensions, Kuleba’s visit to China—his first since the war began—spotlights China’s complex role as a neutral but economically supportive ally to Russia, resistant to Western sanctions and a significant supplier to the Russian defense sector. Ukraine continues to seek China’s influence over Russia to help end the conflict, despite China’s non-participation in a recent global peace summit and its proposal for an alternative peace conference.
During the over three-hour meeting, Kuleba reported that China steadfastly reaffirmed its respect for Ukraine’s sovereignty and territorial integrity, emphasizing the need for a just and sustainable peace rather than a temporary one. President Volodymyr Zelensky later confirmed that China pledged not to supply weapons to Russia and supported Ukraine’s sovereignty. Despite China’s neutral stance and deep economic ties with Moscow, including supplying dual-use goods to Russia, the Chinese Foreign Ministry expressed readiness to aid in peace efforts, although it noted that conditions are not yet suitable for ceasefire talks. Kuleba highlighted Ukraine’s readiness to negotiate when Moscow is prepared to engage genuinely and rejected any approaches involving ultimatums.
Situation On The Land, Sea, and Air in Ukraine
Ukrainian Commander-in-Chief Colonel General Oleksandr Syrskyi has reported the growth of Russian military personnel in Ukraine to 520,000, with expectations to increase to 690,000 by the end of 2024. This substantial rise reflects not just new deployments but ongoing challenges and an imbalance in equipment, with Russia maintaining a significant advantage. Along a 977-kilometer frontline, Russian forces are aggressively pursuing tactical gains despite sustaining heavy losses, while Ukrainian forces concentrate on conserving lives and addressing equipment shortages. In an interview with The Guardian, Syrskyi underscored these issues, pointing out the equipment disparity that has favored Russia, with a ratio of 2:1 to 3:1, leading to Ukrainian withdrawals from strategic positions in Donetsk Oblast. Despite this, he noted that Russian victories are primarily tactical and have resulted in substantial troop casualties. He also touched on the future deployment of F-16 fighter jets, expected to bolster Ukraine’s air capabilities, although they will operate with caution to avoid frontline engagements.
Russia is facing significant challenges in sustaining its military efforts in Ukraine due to a reliance on refurbishing Soviet-era weaponry to avoid full economic mobilization for war. The British International Institute for Strategic Studies predicts Russia can maintain its current losses of over 3,000 armored vehicles annually until about 2026-2027 using existing stocks. However, as these supplies dwindle, Russia may need to intensify its economic and defense industry mobilization, which could be unpopular domestically and strain support for the war.
Russia has maintained its military personnel levels in Ukraine, with numbers rising from 617,000 in December 2023 to nearly 700,000 by June 2024, according to Russian President Vladimir Putin. However, this increase has not significantly enhanced Russia’s capability for larger-scale offensives. Ukrainian forces, under Lieutenant General Oleksandr Pavlyuk, report between 510,000 and 515,000 Russian troops currently engaged. Despite the numerical strength, it remains uncertain how long Russia can sustain these force levels. Ukrainian defense has effectively countered these advantages, holding and reclaiming territory, with potential for future offensives given adequate Western support.
Geolocated footage showed a Ukrainian HIMARS strike targeting a Russian “Yastreb-AV” counterbattery radar station northeast of Zuhres, east of Donetsk City.
The Russian Ministry of Defense released footage claiming to show an Iskander-M ballistic missile strike on a Ukrainian command post near Lyman, Donetsk Oblast. However, there has been no independent confirmation of this strike.
Kharkiv Front – Initiative Russia
Russian forces carried out a limited ground attack near Sotnytskyi Kozachok, just northwest of Kharkiv City along the border with Belgorod Oblast. The Ukrainian General Staff reported the incident, but there is no visual evidence to confirm any gains by Russian forces in the area, and it is assessed that they do not have a lasting presence in the settlement.
Russian forces made advances north of Kharkiv City, particularly moving westward to Polova Street in western Hlyboke, as confirmed by geolocated footage. Despite ongoing Ukrainian counterattacks, Russian sources claim control over most of Hlyboke. Additionally, persistent positional battles occurred in the vicinity of Hlyboke, Vovchansk, Tykhe, and Starytsya. Reports indicate that Ukrainian forces are actively counterattacking near Starytsya, with small arms conflicts reported within Vovchansk.
Luhansk Front – Initiative Russia
Russian forces reportedly made advances southeast of Kupyansk, specifically around Pishchane, though there were no confirmed frontline changes. Russian military bloggers claimed movements in fields south and west of Pishchane and suggested further pushes towards the Oskil River. Despite these claims, there’s no visual confirmation of Russian presence as deep as Pishchane or Andriivka. Russian Defense Minister Andrei Belousov credited specific Russian regiments for actions near Pishchane and Andriivka. Reports also indicate ongoing clashes in areas around Kupyansk, Svatove, Kreminna, including the Serebryanske forest, with various military units involved in these operations.
Donetsk Front – Initiative Russia
Siversk
Russian forces reportedly made tactical advancements in the Siversk area, achieving some success south of the town near Vyimka and Pereizne. Russian military bloggers reported a 400-meter advancement westward from Rozdolivka and ongoing clearing operations in Ivano-Darivka, with additional attacks reported east and southeast of Siversk near Verkhnokamyanske and Spirne.
Chasiv Yar
Russian forces continued offensive operations near Chasiv Yar without making confirmed advances. They engaged in ground attacks in various locations around Chasiv Yar, including to the north, east, southeast, and south of the town, targeting areas like Kalynikva, Novomarkove, Orikhovo-Vasylivka, Ivanivske, Klishchiivka, Andriivka, Bila Hora, and Stupochky. Concurrently, a Russian military blogger reported that Ukrainian forces are actively counterattacking south of Kalynivka.
Toretsk
Russian forces reportedly advanced in the Toretsk area, particularly south near Yurivka and Niu York, achieving tactical successes. Military actions included ground attacks in multiple directions around Toretsk, with significant focus near Dyliivka to the north, Pivnichne to the east, Zalizne to the southeast, and Panteleymonivka to the southwest. The Ukrainian General Staff noted that about 80% of Russian attacks occurred near Pivnichne and Zalizne. Additionally, footage of a Russian missile strike on a bridge near Shcherbynivka to the west of Toretsk was released by Russian milbloggers.
Avdiivka
Russian forces achieved a notable advance northwest of Avdiivka, particularly into central and western Novoselivka Persha, as confirmed by geolocated footage. Additionally, Russian Aerospace Forces conducted intensive airstrikes in Novoselivka Persha and Zhelanne overnight, aiding a breakthrough in Ukrainian defensive lines and securing most of Novoselivka Persha. Claims of further Russian advances west of Prohres and into northern Vovche have been made, though not verified. Ukrainian forces are reportedly retreating from some areas to avoid encirclement. Russian attacks also continued in nearby regions, including Vozdvyzhenka, Umanske, and Karlivka.
Russian forces intensified their offensive efforts in Donetsk Oblast, targeting the towns of Pokrovsk and Kurakhove, key logistical hubs. According to Lieutenant Colonel Nazar Voloshyn of the Khortytsia group of forces, despite Russian troops attempting to penetrate Ukrainian defenses with heavy assaults and shelling, Ukrainian forces successfully repelled 41 attacks in the region, involving towns such as Panteleymonivka and Novooleksandrivka. Russian strategies include significant troop deployments and attempts to advance from previously captured and devastated cities like Avdiivka and Marinka. Over the recent period, Russia sustained considerable losses, including 329 casualties and the destruction of military equipment, including a Su-25 aircraft and a tank. Reports from DeepState indicate a severe escalation in the Pokrovsk sector, with recent Russian captures and attempts to encircle Ukrainian units, although these reports remain unverified. Ukraine also confirmed a strategic withdrawal from the destroyed village of Urozhaine to preserve troop welfare.
Ukraine’s 79th Tavrian Air Assault Brigade reported repelling one of the largest Russian assaults in the Kurakhove sector since the onset of the war. During intense fighting along the eastern front, particularly toward Pokrovsk and Kurakhove, Ukrainian forces withstood 29 attacks in Kurakhove alone. The Russian offensive began at dawn, involving 57 armored vehicles including 11 tanks and 200 assault vehicles. Ukrainian forces, having spotted the equipment early, countered with artillery and drone attacks, damaging six tanks and seven armored vehicles, and destroying all motorcycles involved, resulting in 40 Russian soldiers killed and 37 injured. Following these events, claims emerged of Russia capturing the village of Prohres near Pokrovsk, with ongoing fighting reported in the area. These details, however, have not been independently verified.
Southwest of Donetsk City
Russian forces reported some advancement southwest of Donetsk City, claiming to have breached Ukrainian defenses near Kostyantynivka and established artillery control over a key road, though no frontline changes were confirmed. Claims of Russian troops entering Kostyantynivka remain unverified. Further west, in Krasnohorivka, Russian milbloggers reported advances within the settlement, approaching its western entrance. Ukrainian forces, however, have reportedly repelled attacks in areas around Donetsk, including Krasnohorivka, Heorhiivka, Paraskoviivka, Kostyantynivka, Vodyane, and Vuhledar. Russian artillery and motorized rifle brigades are actively engaged in the Krasnohorivka region.
Zaporizhia Front – Initiative Russia
Zaporizhia-Donetsk Border Area
Russian forces continued limited offensives in the Donetsk-Zaporizhia Oblast border area without making confirmed advances. Attacks were reported near Novodarivka, southwest of Velyka Novosilka. Various Russian military units engaged from positions along the Mokryi Yaly River, targeting Urozhaine and Blahodatne. Additionally, Russian forces attempted to push through from Staromayorske towards Makarivka.
Zaporizhia Line
Russian forces conducted ground assaults in western Zaporizhia Oblast, near Mala Tokmachka northeast of Robotyne, without achieving any confirmed changes to the frontline.
Kherson (Dnipro River) Front – Initiative None
Russian forces continued their assaults in the east bank of Kherson Oblast, targeting areas near Krynky and the Dnipro River delta islands.
Ukraine News
Russian forces launched missile and drone attacks against Ukraine. From Belgorod Oblast, an Iskander-M ballistic missile and another unidentified missile were fired at Kharkiv Oblast, along with 23 Shahed-136/131 drones launched from Primorsko-Akhtarsk, Krasnodar Krai, and occupied Crimea. Ukrainian forces successfully intercepted 17 of these drones, primarily over Odesa Oblast. In Kharkiv City, a Russian missile damaged the office of the Swiss Foundation for Mine Action. Additionally, drone strikes targeted and damaged port facilities in Izmailskyi Raion, Odesa Oblast.
Russian forces launched multiple attacks on Kharkiv, including a “double-tap” strike using an Iskander missile armed with cluster munitions, injuring at least nine people and damaging a Swiss NGO office. Volodymyr Tymoshko, head of the National Police in Kharkiv Oblast, reported that an industrial site was hit twice, with the second strike targeting rescuers and police officers who had just cleared the area. This tactic, known as “double-tap,” has been increasingly used by Russia, resulting in numerous casualties among first responders. Fragments of the weapons indicated they were manufactured in the second quarter of 2024. Ukrainian officials have repeatedly condemned Russia for using cluster munitions, which pose long-term risks to civilians. Attacks in Kharkiv Oblast have intensified since Russia’s new offensive in May.
President Volodymyr Zelensky announced that China confirmed it would not supply weapons to Russia, following Foreign Minister Dmytro Kuleba’s discussions with Chinese counterpart Wang Yi in Guangzhou. This meeting, Kuleba’s first visit to China since Russia’s full-scale war began, reinforced China’s support for Ukraine’s sovereignty and territorial integrity. Zelensky highlighted this as a reaffirmation of previous assurances from Chinese leader Xi Jinping. Despite its neutral stance, China has deepened economic relations with Moscow and remains a significant source of dual-use goods for Russia, while the U.S. has accused Beijing of supporting Russia behind the scenes and threatened further sanctions. Zelensky criticized China for its lack of cooperation in global peace efforts and noted Beijing’s proposal for an alternative peace plan. Kuleba emphasized that Ukraine is open to negotiations if Russia demonstrates a genuine willingness to engage in good faith, a condition not yet met according to Kyiv.
Polish Defense Minister Wladyslaw Kosiniak-Kamysz stated on July 23 that Ukraine must resolve the historical issue of the 1940s Volyn massacre before joining the EU, according to Polsat News. In 1943, the Ukrainian Insurgent Army (UPA) killed tens of thousands of Poles in Volyn, and thousands of Ukrainians were killed in retaliation. Despite Poland’s strong support for Ukraine against Russian aggression, unresolved historical issues strain relations. Former Polish official Pawel Jablonski similarly emphasized that resolving the exhumation of Volyn massacre victims is essential for Ukraine’s EU accession. Ukraine began EU accession talks in June, but unanimous member agreement is required for entry.
Ukrainian authorities charged pro-Russian oligarch Viktor Medvedchuk in absentia with the illegal seizure of a section of the Samara-Western oil pipeline, the SBU announced. Medvedchuk, once a key ally of Russian President Vladimir Putin, was arrested in 2021 for high treason and released to Russia in a 2022 prisoner exchange. The SBU claims Medvedchuk and former managers of the Prykarpatzakhidtrans company began a scheme in 2015 to seize the pipeline from state ownership and transfer it to a Swiss company controlled by a suspect. Medvedchuk allegedly overturned a court ruling to facilitate this transfer. He testified that then-President Petro Poroshenko was involved, though Poroshenko’s party denied the accusations. The investigation continues, focusing on Medvedchuk and other potential suspects.
Presidential Office head Andriy Yermak met with Phil Gordon, national security advisor to U.S. Vice President Kamala Harris. Harris recently became the presumptive Democratic nominee for president after President Joe Biden dropped out of the race, citing concerns about his fitness for office. During their talks, Yermak and Gordon discussed the frontline situation, increased Russian attacks on Ukrainian cities, and the importance of strengthening Ukraine’s air defense with modern Western systems. They also talked about further U.S. support for Ukraine, the results of the first peace summit, and implementing peace formula points. Gordon, who has served in previous administrations, met with Yermak earlier in July before the NATO summit.
Innocent Victims Of War
The casualty count of civilians in the past 24 hours:
DEATHS: 1 INJURIES: 15
- Russian troops attacked Kharkiv with a guided aerial bomb, injuring at least three men
- Russia launched five attacks on Kharkiv, injuring at least six people in the latest strike. The most recent attack targeted the city’s industrial area. Kharkiv, located about 30 kilometers from the Russian border, has faced heavy attacks throughout the war. Earlier that day, a Russian missile damaged the office of a Swiss demining NGO, and another strike started a fire at an infrastructure facility.
- In Lozova, a missile attack killed one person, injured four, and damaged infrastructure, with a search ongoing for two missing people.
- A drone attack on Lisne injured two men
Ukrainian Mobilization and Defense Industrial Base
German arms manufacturer Rheinmetall announced that it had received an order from the Ukrainian government to build an ammunition factory in Ukraine. This move is part of Kyiv’s plan to localize weapons production in 2024. The project follows a memorandum of intent signed in February 2024 by Strategic Industries Minister Alexander Kamyshin and Rheinmetall CEO Armin Papperger at the Munich Security Conference. The factory is expected to begin ammunition production within 24 months. The initial order includes complete technical equipment for the factory. Rheinmetall emphasized the significance of this project for Ukraine’s defense capabilities. This announcement comes after Rheinmetall and Ukrainian state-owned Ukroboronprom opened a joint venture in June to repair foreign-supplied equipment and eventually produce new armored vehicles. Rheinmetall plans to open at least four production plants in Ukraine. Recently, U.S. and German intelligence agencies reportedly disrupted a Russian-linked plot to assassinate Papperger, though Rheinmetall did not comment directly on the incident.
Ukraine’s Allies
U.S. President Joe Biden addressed the nation from the White House Oval Office, explaining his decision to end his reelection bid. Biden announced his withdrawal on July 21 and endorsed Vice President Kamala Harris as the Democratic nominee. He expressed pride in his tenure but emphasized the need for “new voices” to unify the nation, stating, “The best way forward is to pass the torch to the next generation.” Biden pledged to use his remaining six months in office to support Ukraine against Russian aggression and to strengthen NATO.
EU ambassadors approved the transfer of €4.2 billion ($4.55 billion) to Ukraine as the first regular payment under the Ukraine Facility. This funding will support Ukraine’s recovery, reconstruction, and modernization. The four-year Ukraine Facility includes €33 billion ($36 billion) in loans and €17 billion ($18 billion) in grants, contingent on Ukrainian government reforms. The European Commission approved the disbursement earlier this month, and it will be finalized by the Council of the EU. The EU approved the Ukraine Facility in February, and Kyiv has already received several pre-financing tranches this year, expecting over $17 billion in 2024.
Czechia is set to launch a new initiative in 2025 to purchase artillery ammunition for Ukraine, announced Czech Defense Minister Jana Cernochova. This follows an earlier international effort to address Ukraine’s shell shortages due to delays in U.S. assistance. Czech Foreign Minister Jan Lipavsky confirmed that funds have been secured to supply Ukraine with 500,000 shells by the end of 2024. Five Czech companies will participate in the “Initiative 2025,” with Prague acting as a mediator between arms manufacturers and European funders. Denmark, Germany, and the Netherlands support this initiative, with financing negotiations expected to start by the end of summer. Additionally, Prague plans to send another 100,000 rounds to Ukraine in July and August, following the 45,000 shells shipped in June. Eighteen countries have pledged support, with 15 already providing funds.
Russia News
The Russian State Duma passed an amendment permitting commanders to penalize troops for using personal communication and navigation devices at the frontline. This decision has faced significant criticism from Russian ultranationalists and some Duma deputies, who argue it could lead to abuse and censorship of legitimate servicemember complaints, often shared via these devices. Critics also worry about the impact on frontline operations, which currently rely on such devices for command, control, and logistics. The amendment is seen as a directive from the Russian Ministry of Defense, sparking further discontent among nationalists who view it as a disconnect from the realities of the war and an assault on Defense Minister Andrei Belousov’s reputation. Enforcement of this new rule may prove challenging given the frontline’s dependency on these insecure devices.
A reported assassination attempt in Moscow severely injured Andrey Torgashev, a senior officer of Russia’s Main Military Intelligence Directorate (GRU). An improvised explosive device (IED) attached to his Toyota Land Cruiser detonated when he and his wife started the vehicle, blowing off his legs and injuring both, along with damaging five other cars. The suspect, Yevgeny Serebryakov, allegedly fled to Turkey but was detained by Turkish authorities and is set to be extradited to Russia. Russian officials are investigating potential Ukrainian involvement and considering terrorism charges against Serebryakov. CCTV footage of the explosion was published by Russian Telegram channel Baza. Kyiv has denied involvement, with Ukrainian adviser Mykhailo Podolyak suggesting a malfunction in the car’s gas equipment.
Ukrainian cyber specialists from the Main Intelligence Directorate successfully targeted Russia’s banking and digital payment systems, causing widespread disruptions. This cyberattack impacted mobile apps, personal banking accounts, and public transport payment systems across major Russian banks like Alfa-Bank, Sberbank, VTB, Raiffeisen, and Gazprombank, as well as social networks and some airlines. Additionally, major mobile operators such as Beeline and MegaFon, along with internet providers, faced significant service interruptions, deeply affecting online and mobile communications. Rosselkhozbank confirmed it was hit by a DDoS attack. This offensive aligns with Ukrainian intelligence efforts to undermine Russian digital infrastructure amidst ongoing conflict. The attacks are ongoing, and recent cyber efforts by Ukraine’s military intelligence include disrupting nearly 100 Russian websites in early July and a large-scale attack in late June that affected communications for 250,000 consumers in Crimea and other Russian-controlled areas. These claims remain unverified by independent sources.
Russia is reinforcing the Kerch Bridge in occupied Crimea, a crucial supply route for its military. The bridge, connecting Russia to Crimea, was heavily damaged by Ukrainian strikes in October 2022 and July 2023. In response, Russia has added underwater barriers and increased the number of barges to protect it from Ukrainian naval drones. Witnesses also reported seeing a floating construction crane in the Kerch Strait. Despite these reinforcements, Ukraine’s Navy claims the bridge is no longer heavily used for military purposes. However, Ukrainian officials warn that Russia might resume using it for weapon supplies once fully restored. Meanwhile, Russia’s alternative supply route, a railroad from Rostov-on-Don to Crimea, poses a potential challenge for Ukraine.
Russian Mobilization and Defense Industrial Base
Russian officials are actively promoting military enlistment with substantial financial incentives. A recruitment ad on a St. Petersburg-based Telegram channel for the Russian 76th Guards Airborne Assault Division and the 44th “Leningrad” Brigade offers a one-time payment of approximately 1.7 million rubles ($19,700) and a starting monthly salary of 210,000 rubles ($2,400). Additionally, recruits can earn an extra 50,000 rubles ($580) for each piece of Ukrainian military equipment destroyed or for every kilometer advanced on the frontline. The ad also highlights that recruits and their families will receive various benefits, social support, and an extra 15 days of leave.
Russia’s Allies
Hungarian Foreign Minister Peter Szijjarto announced on July 23 that Hungary will block €6.5 billion ($7 billion) in European Peace Facility aid for Ukraine until Kyiv allows the transit of Russia’s Lukoil oil. This dispute, also involving Slovakia, stems from Ukrainian sanctions halting Lukoil oil transit to both countries. While Ukraine’s Naftogaz claims overall transit volumes remain stable, Hungary insists on resolving the issue before releasing aid funds. Hungary, often seen as pro-Kremlin within the EU, has a history of stalling aid to Ukraine and is seeking long-term solutions if restrictions continue.
Russian Narrative and Propaganda
Russia is falsely portraying its economy as strong while it likely deteriorates under Western sanctions, finance ministers from eight European countries wrote in a Guardian op-ed on July 24. Ministers from Sweden, Denmark, Finland, the Netherlands, Poland, and the Baltic states highlighted signs of a weakening Russian economy, such as extensive market controls, heavy public spending from nationalized assets, and a shift toward the war industry at the expense of social welfare. They warned of potential overheating, stagnant private sector growth, rising inflation, and depleted financial reserves, suggesting long-term damage to the economy if President Putin continues on this path. The ministers urged stronger sanctions and increased military support for Ukraine. They noted recent EU sanctions on Russian LNG transshipment and Russia’s attempts to bypass oil sanctions with a “ghost fleet” of uninsured tankers.
Russian media highlighted criticisms made by a Ukrainian official against Ukrainian Commander-in-Chief Colonel General Oleksandr Syrskyi, aiming to undermine trust in Ukrainian military leadership.
Source Material
Institute for the Study of War – understandingwar.org
The Kyiv Independent – kyivindependent.com
Kyiv Post – kyivpost.com