Summary of the day: Russian forces are concentrating in western Belgorod Oblast near the Ukrainian border, likely to draw Ukrainian troops and prepare for offensive operations. Western officials are debating Ukraine’s use of Western-supplied weapons against Russian targets amid Russian efforts to divide NATO. Despite manufacturing more artillery shells, Russia faces quality issues, while Ukrainian artillery remains more precise. Kremlin officials show no interest in meaningful negotiations, instead pushing the West for concessions on Ukrainian sovereignty. Russian troops have made advances near Svatove, Avdiivka, and Donetsk City, while former Wagner fighters are forming new units under Rosgvardia and Chechen Akhmat Spetsnaz.
These updates will be shorter until the end of July as we are on holiday visiting family and friends. We will be back to our normal coverage again starting on July 22, 2024.
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Beyond Ukraine – March Towards World War
Polish Foreign Minister Sikorski suggested that the U.S. might strike Russian forces in Ukraine if Russia uses nuclear weapons. Russian Security Council Deputy Chair Medvedev responded by threatening nuclear retaliation against Poland and dismissed the U.S. threat as false. Medvedev’s statements, aimed at an international audience, seek to isolate Poland within NATO. Russia continues to insist on “red lines” for Western support to Ukraine amid ongoing debates on the extent of that support.
Peace Talks
The Kremlin shows no interest in meaningful negotiations with Ukraine, aiming instead to push the West for concessions. Russian State Duma Chair Vyacheslav Volodin claimed Ukrainian President Zelensky is illegitimate due to canceled elections and has no authority. This aligns with long-standing Kremlin narratives questioning Ukraine’s legitimacy. Putin echoed these sentiments, questioning the legality of Ukrainian officials’ terms. Russia’s stance implies it will not honor past or future agreements with Ukraine and continues efforts to undermine Ukrainian sovereignty.
Situation On The Land, Sea, and Air in Ukraine
Russian forces are concentrating near the Ukrainian border in western Belgorod Oblast, likely preparing for offensive operations. Ukrainian President Zelensky noted this buildup near Kharkiv City. Satellite imagery shows increased Russian activity at depots and warehouses in the area. The exact size of these forces is unclear. Ukrainian officials warn that Russia may attack Sumy Oblast or nearby areas to stretch Ukrainian defenses.
Russian forces are concentrating near the Grayvoron-Borisovka-Proletarsky area, positioning for possible offensives towards Zolochiv, Bohodukhiv, or along the P-45 highway to Sumy. This move aims to stretch Ukrainian defenses across a wider border area. Limited Russian forces are also gathering in Kursk and Bryansk oblasts, adding pressure on Ukrainian troops. While these concentrations are growing, major offensives towards Kharkiv or Sumy are unlikely until Russian forces reach full strength. Current operations aim to establish tactical positions and strain Ukrainian resources.
On the night of May 25-26, Russian sources claimed Ukrainian forces launched missile strikes against occupied Crimea. They reported the use of R-360 Neptune and ATACMS missiles targeting unspecified locations. Sevastopol’s occupation governor announced air raid alerts, and residents reported explosions near Sevastopol with air defenses activated in Yevpatoria, Saky, and Chornomorske. There were no confirmed comments from officials or evidence of damage.
Kharkiv Front – Initiative Russia
Lyptsi
Ukrainian forces regained positions near Lyptsi, north of Kharkiv City, amid ongoing fighting. Lieutenant Colonel Nazar Voloshyn reported that Ukrainian troops pushed Russian forces back towards Strilecha-Hlyboke and are preventing further Russian advances along the Hlyboke-Lyptsi road. Fighting continues near Lyptsi, Hlyboke, Lukyantsi, and Neskuchne. Russian sources describe the conflict in northern Kharkiv Oblast as “positional.”
Vovchansk
Russian forces continued assaults near Vovchansk, northeast of Kharkiv City, but the frontline remained unchanged. Ukrainian forces are reportedly pushing Russian troops out of certain positions. Fighting persists in Vovchansk and west of the city near Starytsya.
Luhansk Front – Initiative Russia
Russian forces advanced northwest of Svatove and continued operations along the Kupyansk-Svatove line. They moved into southeastern Ivanivka and claimed to have seized Berestove and Ivanivka, though this is unconfirmed. Russian troops reportedly advanced south of Ivanivka and near Kotlyarivka, Kyslivka, and Stepova Novoselivka. Offensive operations also continued near Synkivka, Petropavlivka, Myasozharivka, Novoyehorivka, Hrekivka, and Druzhelyubivka.
Russian forces continued offensive operations around Kreminna with no confirmed changes to the frontline. Fighting occurred northwest of Kreminna near Nevske, west near Terny and Torske, and south in the Serebryanske forest area and Bilohorivka.
Donetsk Front – Initiative Russia
Siversk
The Ukrainian General Staff reported continued Russian ground assaults near Verkhnokamyanske, southeast of Siversk.
Chasiv Yar
Russian forces continued offensive operations near Chasiv Yar with no confirmed frontline changes. Russian sources claimed they seized several buildings and advanced along Zelena Street in eastern Chasiv Yar. There is a reported shortage of electronic warfare systems in the area. Fighting also occurred northeast of Chasiv Yar near Bohdanivka and Kalynivka, in eastern Chasiv Yar, and near Ivanivske, Klishchiivka, and Andriivka.
Avdiivka
Russian forces made minor advances southwest of Avdiivka, particularly in the western outskirts of Netaylove. Russian sources claimed the 9th Motorized Rifle Brigade seized Netaylove. They also reported a mechanized assault near Novooleksandrivka and advances southwest of Solovyove. Additionally, Russian forces claimed progress west of Umanske and on the outskirts of Novopokrovske, though these are unconfirmed. Fighting continued northwest of Avdiivka near several villages, and southwest near Nevelske.
Southwest of Donetsk City
Russian forces made minor advances west of Donetsk City. Footage from May 25 shows a small Russian mechanized assault advancing in central Krasnohorivka. Russian sources claimed the 5th Motorized Rifle Brigade advanced up to 400 meters there. They also reported progress near Paraskoviivka but denied full control of the settlement. Fighting continued near Heorhiivka, Pobieda, Kostyantynivka, and Vodyane.
Zaporizhia Front – Initiative Russia
Zaporizhia-Donetsk Border Area
Russian forces continued assaults in the Donetsk-Zaporizhia border area. Fighting occurred southeast of Velyka Novosilka near Volodymyrivka and south of Velyka Novosilka near Urozhaine and Staromayorske.
Zaporizhia Line
Positional fighting continued in western Zaporizhia Oblast with no confirmed frontline changes. Clashes occurred near Robotyne, Verbove, Mala Tokmachka, and Novoandriivka. Russian sources claimed Russian forces attacked Ukrainian positions near Vasylivka and are reportedly operating west of Robotyne.
Kherson (Dnipro River) Front – Initiative None
Positional fighting continued on the east bank of Kherson Oblast near Krynky. Ukrainian forces maintain a small bridgehead in Krynky, but logistics across the Dnipro River are challenging. Ukrainian forces also hold positions on Milkyi and Frolova islands in the Dnipro River Delta.
Ukraine News
On the night of May 25-26, Russian forces launched a series of drone and missile strikes against Ukraine. They deployed 31 Shahed-136/131 drones, two Kinzhal missiles, and 12 Kh-101/555 cruise missiles. Ukrainian Air Force Commander Mykola Oleshchuk reported that all drones and missiles were shot down over multiple oblasts, including Mykolaiv, Odesa, and Dnipropetrovsk. The targets were critical energy infrastructure and military facilities. Russian sources claimed strikes on energy and military sites in Starokostiantyniv, Khmelnytskyi Oblast (Marina’s relatives live nearby).
Ukraine’s Allies
Western officials are debating whether Ukraine should use Western weapons to strike targets in Russia. Poland supports Ukraine’s right to strike within Russia, arguing for stronger support. Italy and Germany, however, believe Ukraine should use Western weapons only within its own borders. The U.S. is reportedly reconsidering its restrictions on Ukraine. Current Western limitations provide Russia with a sanctuary near the border to launch attacks and assemble forces.
Russian Mobilization and Defense Industrial Base
Former Wagner Group fighters are reportedly forming new units under Rosgvardia and Chechen Akhmat Spetsnaz. A source claimed a former Wagner commander, “Zombie,” aims to recruit 3,500 ex-Wagner personnel for the new “Vostok” brigade under Rosgvardia. Another unit, “Kamerton,” has about 1,000 former Wagner fighters under Akhmat Spetsnaz. However, another source refuted this, stating “Zombie” won’t recruit 3,500 fighters and that “Kamerton” had only 150 fighters who moved to the new “Kashtan” unit after “Kamerton” ceased combat operations.
Ukraine-based Frontelligence Insight reported that Russian missile manufacturer Raduga has bypassed US sanctions to import Western and Chinese machinery since 2022. Documents show Raduga’s plans for 2023 included equipment from Italian, German, and Chinese companies, some of which were successfully implemented. It’s unclear if these purchases were direct or through third parties.
In 2024, Russia is expected to produce and refurbish three times more artillery shells than the West, despite facing quality issues. Russian shells cost about $1,000 each, compared to $4,000 for NATO-standard shells. Ukrainian artillery is reportedly more precise, able to destroy targets with fewer shells despite Russia’s numerical advantage. Russian artillery suffers from inconsistent performance due to varying gunpowder quality. Russia also relies on old stockpiles and imports from partners like North Korea, though many imported munitions are defective.
Russia’s Allies
Belarusian Gomel Oblast Executive Committee Chair Ivan Krupko met with Russian Altai Krai Governor Viktor Tomenko to discuss strengthening cooperation.
Russian Narratives and Propaganda
A Kremlin-awarded Russian milblogger is trying to assert that officials from Georgia’s ruling Georgia Dream party are not pro-Russian, despite both parties promoting Kremlin narratives.
In response to Ukrainian President Zelensky’s May 25 interview with Central Asian journalists, Russian milbloggers claimed the West is trying to destabilize Russia and former Soviet states. They suggested Ukraine aims to open a second front in Central Asia with Western support and accused American NGOs of subversive activities in the region.
Source Material
Institute for the Study of War – understandingwar.org