Summary of the Day:
Russian forces have made significant advances in northwestern Toretsk, now controlling approximately 71% of the settlement, while changing tactics to use larger platoons of up to 20 soldiers in simultaneous multi-point attacks. This marks a shift from their previous approach of using smaller five-person fireteams, as they attempt to leverage superior numbers to overwhelm Ukrainian defenders.
Russian forces appear to be attempting to break out of Toretsk’s urban environment toward Kostyantynivka along the T-05-16 highway through more open terrain, where they’ve had recent success in other sectors. Their advances could threaten the Ukrainian fortress belt in the Kostyantynivka-Druzhkivka-Kramatorsk area. However, their current force in the area, which are likely depleted after six months of urban combat, would need significant reinforcement to pose a serious threat to Kostyantynivka.
Meanwhile, Ukrainian forces struck a Russian command post in Belaya, Kursk Oblast.
Picture of the Day:
An evacuation van drives through the mostly destroyed front-line city of Kupiansk, Ukraine. (Wolfgang Schwan / Anadolu via Getty Images)
Beyond Ukraine – The March Towards World War
The U.K.-led Joint Expeditionary Force has launched the Nordic Warden system to monitor threats to undersea infrastructure and track Russia’s shadow fleet in the Baltic Sea. This initiative follows recent damage to multiple telecommunication and power cables, with Russian vessel Eagle S suspected in the December 25 sabotages. The system will alert both JEF and NATO allies to suspicious vessel activity, particularly focusing on Russia’s fleet of aging tankers used to evade sanctions and potentially conduct espionage. NATO is simultaneously increasing its Baltic Sea presence and developing additional protective measures for undersea infrastructure. These developments highlight growing concerns about Russian sabotage operations in Europe, which could threaten critical communication networks and potentially destabilize regional security.
Hungary’s Foreign Minister Peter Szijjarto criticized Ukraine for halting Russian gas transit through its territory on January 1, 2024, as Ukraine refused to continue financing Russia’s war effort through the agreement. The decision impacted several Central European nations, with Slovakia, Hungary, and Austria remaining dependent on Russian gas through sanctioned Gazprombank, though Hungary claims protection through a 15-year agreement signed in 2021. The transit termination led to significant economic implications, including a reported 20% increase in European gas prices and potential additional costs of 220 million euros in transit fees for Slovakia. A planned meeting between Slovak, Ukrainian, and EU officials in Brussels to address these concerns was postponed when Ukraine’s Energy Minister requested virtual participation due to energy sector challenges, prompting Slovakia to threaten cuts to electricity exports to Ukraine and refugee support. The situation has intensified existing tensions, particularly between Ukraine and Hungary, with the latter consistently opposing EU sanctions against Russia and aid to Ukraine, ultimately threatening European energy security and unity in supporting Ukraine.
The U.S. Treasury Department has sanctioned Antal Rogan, a senior Hungarian official and close ally of Prime Minister Viktor Orban, under the Magnitsky Act for alleged corruption. Rogan, who oversees key government agencies as minister for the prime minister’s Cabinet Office, is accused of manipulating strategic economic sectors for personal and party gain. This marks the first time a high-ranking Hungarian official has faced U.S. Magnitsky sanctions, which target human rights abuses and corruption. The action comes as Hungarian opposition calls for early elections, claiming Orban’s leadership has made Hungary “the EU’s poorest, most corrupt nation.” These developments signal escalating tensions between the U.S. and Hungary’s government under Orban.
The Path to Peace
At the Conference of Ambassadors in Paris, Polish Foreign Minister Radoslaw Sikorski warned that the EU may face intense pressure to reach an agreement with Moscow, particularly as U.S. President-elect Trump’s inauguration approaches, while emphasizing that any peace deal should be fair rather than a capitulation that would allow Russia to rebuild its strength. Sikorski urged European unity to strengthen Ukraine’s position in future negotiations and cautioned against setting time limits on support for Ukraine, noting that Europe is stronger than Russia believes. Despite Trump’s promise to end the war quickly, opinions among Ukrainians remain mixed, with a recent poll showing 45% believe Trump’s presidency could help end the war, while others express uncertainty about future U.S. support.
Situation On The Land, Sea, and Air in Ukraine
Ukrainian forces reported a significant military advancement by using naval drones as launching platforms for FPV drones to attack Russian air defenses in occupied Kherson Oblast, marking a military first in this type of operation. The attack resulted in the destruction of two Osa air defense systems in southern Ukraine, while video evidence confirmed the destruction of at least one Pantsir-S1 air defense system near Pryvillya in Kherson Oblast. In total, the operation reportedly damaged or destroyed two Pantsir-S1 anti-missile systems, valued at approximately $15 million each, along with one OSA anti-aircraft vehicle.
Jordan Maclachlan, a 26-year-old Scottish combat medic and volunteer, was killed while serving on the front line in Ukraine on January 3. His family expressed pride in his dedication to helping others and described him as a fun-loving person who touched many lives. He is one of several British volunteers who have died serving in Ukraine, including 22-year-old Callum Tindal-Draper who was killed in November while serving in Ukraine’s foreign volunteer platoon. British authorities are working with Ukrainian officials and supporting Maclachlan’s family.
Ukrainian Operations in the Russian Federation – Initiative Russia
Russia deployed Deputy Defense Minister General Yunus-Bek Yevkurov to Kursk Oblast on January 5 to organize defenses against renewed Ukrainian attacks. The general, who previously survived an assassination attempt while leading Ingushetia and has managed Russia’s mercenary operations in Africa, arrived hours after Ukraine began new offensive operations in the region.
Ukrainian forces advanced in the Kursk Oblast, specifically in northern Pogrebki northwest of Sudzha. However, Russian sources later claimed they pushed Ukrainian forces out of Pogrebki. The area near Berdin remains contested, with Ukrainian forces reportedly holding positions in a “gray zone.” Russian sources claim they repelled Ukrainian attacks near Sudzha-Bolshoye Soldatskoye, Berdin, and Cherkasskoye Porechnoye.
Russian forces have made advances in Ukraine’s Kursk Oblast, recapturing several positions. They gained ground in western Kruglenkoye, east of Leonidovo, west of Staraya Sorochina, and northwest of Russkoye Porechnoye. Russian sources claim they captured additional settlements including Staraya Sorochina, Russkoye Porechnoye, Kositsa, Novosotnitsky, Berdin, and Makhnovka. Russian sources report an unusually high number of aviation missions in the area.
Ukrainian Special Operations Forces (SSO) reported that they killed 13 North Korean soldiers in Kursk Oblast. This report indicates North Korean military personnel are present in this area of the conflict. Ukrainian military footage shows North Korean soldiers forcing elderly Russian residents out of their homes in Makhnovka, Kursk region, as they sought shelter from Ukrainian drone strikes.
Ukrainian forces struck a Russian naval infantry brigade’s command post near Belaya in Russia’s Kursk Oblast, though the results of the strike remain unknown.
On December 31, Ukraine’s Military Intelligence (HUR) special forces unit “Group 13” achieved a military first by using Magura V5 naval drones to destroy two Russian Mi-8 helicopters near Tarkhankut in the Black Sea. The drones were armed with modified R-73 SeaDragon missiles. According to the unit’s commander “Thirteenth,” this was a planned operation specifically targeting Russian helicopters that had been patrolling the area. A third helicopter was damaged but managed to escape. This marks the first time in military history that naval drones have been used to successfully engage air targets.
Kharkiv Front – Initiative Russia
Russian forces conducted limited attacks near Kharkiv City around Vovchansk and Tykhe but failed to make confirmed advances. A Ukrainian brigade spokesperson reported that Russian forces are launching up to five daily assaults near Vovchansk and have increased their use of glide bombs in the area.
Khortytsia group spokesperson Viktor Trehubov denied reports that Russia had captured the village of Lozova in Kharkiv Oblast. Trehubov stated there hadn’t even been serious fighting in the area. While video footage allegedly shows Russian forces taking the village, the military spokesperson’s statement contradicts this assessment.
Luhansk Front – Initiative Russia
Kupyansk
Russian forces continued attacks near Kupyansk but made no advances. They targeted multiple areas including Holubivka, Topoli, Petropavlivka, Dvorichna, Synkivka, and Kupyansk-Vuzlovyi. A Ukrainian battalion commander confirmed Ukrainian control of Novomlynsk and reported repelling four Russian mechanized assaults in the past week. Poor weather conditions, including rain, fog, and strong winds, are limiting drone operations in the area. Russian forces are reportedly using thermal imaging-blocking cloaks at night and fog cover to approach Ukrainian positions.
Borova
Russian forces advanced northeast of Borova, specifically along the C-210517 road northwest of Lozova. Russian sources claim their forces advanced three kilometers from Lozova toward Nova Kruhlyakivka and are advancing near Makiivka. Russian forces attacked multiple locations including Zahryzove, Nadiya, Pershotravneve, Novoserhiivka, and Cherneshchyna. Ukrainian forces report repelling attacks near Lozova, Zahryzove, and Kolisnykivka. A Ukrainian commander claimed Russian forces lost nearly 100 armored vehicles and suffered heavy casualties during attempts to enter Kruhlyakivka.
Lyman
Russian forces conducted offensive operations in the Lyman direction without confirmed advances. Russian sources claim their forces advanced northwest of Novosadove and west of Ivanivka. They continued attacks near Terny, Ivanivka, Yampolivka, and Zarichne. Russian drone operators are reportedly active near the Serebryanske forest area.
Donetsk Front – Initiative Russia
Siversk
Russian forces continued attacks near Bilohorivka, northeast of Siversk, but failed to make any confirmed advances.
Chasiv Yar
Russian forces attacked the Chasiv Yar area targeting the town itself and nearby settlements of Bondarne, Vasyukivka, Bila Hora, and Stupochky. While Russian airborne drone units were active in the area, they failed to make any confirmed territorial gains.
Toretsk
Russian forces have made recent advances in northwestern Toretsk, now controlling approximately 71% of the settlement, with footage from January 6 showing their movement along Kvitkova Street to the northwestern boundary. While operations in this area intensified in June 2024, Russian forces have modified their assault tactics, now deploying larger platoons of up to 20 soldiers instead of smaller five-person fireteams and launching simultaneous attacks across multiple areas rather than concentrating on single locations, using their superior numbers to overwhelm Ukrainian defenders.
Russian forces appear to be planning to use their recent gains in northwestern Toretsk as a springboard for further advances westward, with their likely objective being to push along the T-05-16 highway through Nelipivka, Pleshchiivka, and Ivanopillia toward Kostyantynivka, targeting Ukraine’s defensive fortress belt in the Kostyantynivka-Druzhkivka-Kramatorsk area. They may also advance toward Bila Hora and Oleksandro-Shultyne while simultaneously pushing west from Niu York and Leonidivka, potentially using mechanized assaults like those seen in the Kurakhove and Vuhledar areas in late 2024 and attempting to eliminate the Ukrainian salient between Vozdvyzhenka and Toretsk.
Their progress in urban areas has been notably slower than in open terrain, taking six months to advance 12 kilometers through Toretsk and facing ongoing resistance in Chasiv Yar since April 2024, compared to faster progress of 18 kilometers west of Selydove and 20 kilometers from Vuhledar since late 2024.
The Russian military command faces strategic choices regarding force deployment, potentially shifting forces to Toretsk from other areas like Pokrovsk and Kurakhove after achieving objectives there, or redeploying troops by reducing operations in areas like Kupyansk or Borova. However, they may prefer to maintain their current strategy of continuous pressure along the entire front to pin down Ukrainian forces, despite the potential for significant operational gains in advancing from Toretsk toward Kostyantynivka.
Pokrovsk
Russian forces advanced near Pokrovsk capturing territory in eastern Lysivka, north of Vovkove, and northwest of Vozdvyzhenka, while conducting operations around multiple settlements including Vodyane Druhe, Tarasivka, Yelyzavetivka, Myrolyubivka, Promin, Shevchenko, Zelene, Novyi Trud, Novoyeliyzavetivka, Ukrainka, Yasenove, Kotlyne, and Pishchane, with current Russian priorities focused on enveloping Pokrovsk while pushing westward toward the Donetsk-Dnipropetrovsk border.
Kurakhove Region
Russian forces continued attacking near Kurakhove but made no confirmed advances, with Ukrainian forces defending the western outskirts and the Kurakhivska Power Plant while Russia attempts to systematically destroy buildings to eliminate defensive positions. A Ukrainian brigade spokesperson reported that Russia has concentrated its largest force in this area, with new troops receiving less than two weeks of training before deployment, while Ukrainian military spokesperson Viktor Trehubov described the situation as “difficult” despite Russia’s unconfirmed claims of capturing Shevchenko and advancing near Petropavlivka and Sukhi Yaly.
Russian operations occurred around multiple settlements including Andriivka, Dachne, Kostiantynopil, Kostiantynopolske, Sukhi Yar, Yantarne, and Zelenivka, while elements of the 5th and 110th motorized rifle brigades have been withdrawn from Kurakhove for rest and reconstitution, with the potential for redeployment to Toretsk if it becomes a priority.
Velyka Novosilka
Russian forces attacked near Velyka Novosilka targeting the areas around Novosilka and Pryvilne but failed to make any confirmed territorial gains.
Zaporizhia Front – Initiative Russia
Russian forces launched attacks near Novodanylivka in western Zaporizhia Oblast but made no confirmed progress. Ukrainian troops were reportedly attempting to advance toward Vasylivka.
Kherson (Dnipro River) Front – Initiative Russia
Russian forces conducted limited ground attacks in the Dnipro area without making confirmed advances.
Ukraine News
Russia launched 38 Shahed and other drones from multiple locations in Russia, targeting Ukraine. Ukrainian forces intercepted 28 drones across seven regions, while 10 decoy drones were disabled by electronic warfare and three returned to Russia.
A Ukrainian F-16 pilot achieved a historic feat on December 13, 2024, during a Russian mass aerial attack of nearly 200 drones and 94 missiles, by shooting down six Russian cruise missiles in a single flight – marking the first time in F-16 history that one aircraft has destroyed this many cruise missiles in a single mission. The pilot, flying one of the F-16s recently provided by the Netherlands and Denmark and using U.S. training, first destroyed four missiles with air-to-air missiles before using the aircraft’s cannon to shoot down two more missiles heading toward Kyiv.
The Kyiv International Institute of Sociology released a survey showing President Volodymyr Zelensky’s trust rating has fallen to 52%, down 7 points since October 2024 and 12 points since February. The poll, conducted in December across Ukraine-controlled territories, reveals regional variations in support: 60% in western Ukraine, 52% in central regions, and lower ratings in the war-affected south (46%) and east (42%).
Ukraine’s Allies
The Biden administration will announce its final Ukraine weapons aid package on January 9 during Defense Secretary Lloyd Austin’s meeting with allies in Germany. The package, described as “substantial,” will be drawn from remaining congressionally approved funds, though officials note several billion dollars will likely be left for the incoming Trump administration.
Keith Kellogg, newly appointed Special Representative for Ukraine and Russia by President-elect Trump, has postponed his planned fact-finding trip to Kyiv and other European capitals until after Trump’s January 20th inauguration. His strategy proposes withholding US weapons from Ukraine unless it engages in peace talks with Moscow, while warning Russia that refusing negotiations would result in increased US support for Ukraine.
Life in Russian Occupied Ukraine
Three Ukrainian children have been safely returned from Russian-occupied territories, including a 17-year-old who faced persecution for supporting Ukraine, and two younger boys who were reunited with their mother after being stranded in occupied Donetsk Oblast. This represents a small fraction of the nearly 20,000 Ukrainian children who have been taken to Russia since the invasion began, with fewer than 400 returned. Due to Russia’s systematic deportation and re-education of Ukrainian children, the International Criminal Court issued arrest warrants for Russian President Putin and official Maria Lvova-Belova in March 2023.
Russia News
Patriarch Kirill, head of the Russian Orthodox Church and close Putin ally, claimed during Christmas Mass that the West “hates” Russia for offering an alternative civilization path. During the service, he blessed military items bearing Putin’s initials for Russian soldiers in Ukraine. Ukraine has placed Kirill on its wanted list and banned the Moscow-aligned Ukrainian Orthodox Church, while most Ukrainian Orthodox Christians now follow the independent Orthodox Church of Ukraine. Ukraine also moved its Christmas celebration to December 25 in 2023, breaking from the Russian tradition of January 7 observance.
Russian War Losses (Today/Total)
Troops +1660
801670 |
Tanks +4
9714 |
Artillery +19
21729 |
Arm. Veh. +16
20205 |
Aircraft 
369 |
Heli
331 |
Ships
28 |
Russia Mobilization and Defense Industrial Base
Russian officials report that over 15,000 veterans of the Ukraine invasion have applied to the “Time of Heroes” program, which aims to place former military personnel in government positions at all levels. Applications for the program’s second round will be accepted until January 25.
Source Material
Institute for the Study of War – understandingwar.org
The Kyiv Independent – kyivindependent.com
Kyiv Post – kyivpost.com