Summary of the Day:
Russia continues to strengthen its military position both through domestic expansion and international cooperation. The Kremlin has agreed to provide drone and missile technology to North Korea in exchange for troops fighting in Kursk Oblast, while simultaneously forming new military divisions and planning to increase personnel by 100,000 soldiers. This military buildup, along with deepening ties with North Korea, indicates Russia has no immediate interest in peace negotiations with Ukraine.
On the battlefield, Russian forces are executing a significant redeployment from the Kurakhove direction to Toretsk, suggesting preparation for a major offensive against Kostyantynivka in Spring/Summer 2025. Russian forces have made advances near Kupyansk, Lyman, and Toretsk, while Ukrainian forces have gained ground near Chasiv Yar. The Kremlin continues efforts to incentivize Russian citizens to join the military.
In a strategic development affecting regional power dynamics, the Baltic States (Estonia, Latvia, and Lithuania) have disconnected from the Soviet-era BRELL power grid shared with Belarus and Russia. This move toward integration with the European Union’s power grid marks a significant step in reducing Russian influence in the region and preventing Russia from using energy as political leverage.
Picture of the Day:
Ukrainian soldiers of Karpatska Sich prepare a drone in a basement in the direction of Toretsk, Donetsk Oblast. (Diego Herrera Carcedo / Anadolu via Getty Images)
Beyond Ukraine – The March Towards World War
Russia is providing drone technology to North Korea in exchange for North Korean troops fighting in Ukraine’s Kursk Oblast, according to Japanese media NHK. While Russia is helping North Korea develop and mass-produce drones, it remains hesitant to assist with nuclear weapons development, fearing strain on US and Chinese relations. Ukrainian President Zelensky reported that thousands of North Korean troops have returned to combat in Kursk Oblast after a brief pause in January 2025. The partnership appears to be benefiting North Korea’s military capabilities, with recent reports showing improved accuracy in North Korean ballistic missiles used by Russian forces. This growing military collaboration between Russia and North Korea poses potential risks to global stability and nuclear non-proliferation efforts.
Estonia, Latvia, and Lithuania have disconnected from the Soviet-era BRELL power grid shared with Belarus and Russia marking a significant step toward energy independence. The Baltic states will integrate with the European Union’s power grid after temporary independent operation. This move prevents Russia from using energy as leverage against these nations, as it has previously done with Moldova, Belarus, and Ukraine. In response, Russia’s Kaliningrad Oblast, situated between Poland and Lithuania, has switched to autonomous power generation using its existing power plants. This development represents another step in reducing Russian influence in the Baltic region and strengthening European energy security.
The Path to Peace
According to Ukrainian President Zelensky, Russia is significantly expanding its military capabilities through forming new divisions, building defense facilities, planning to add over 100,000 soldiers, and strengthening military ties with North Korea – actions suggesting Russia has no interest in peace negotiations and may be preparing for a longer or broader conflict with NATO. While Ukrainian forces face critical manpower and resource shortages forcing gradual withdrawals along the front, Zelensky seeks to meet with U.S. President Trump in Washington next week to discuss security guarantees, which he calls the “main issue,” emphasizing the importance of meeting Trump before any potential talks with Russian President Putin to avoid “dialogue about Ukraine without Ukraine.” Though Zelensky maintains his stance against direct negotiations with Russia due to Moscow’s history of breaking promises during the decade-long conflict, he expressed interest in strengthening U.S.-Ukraine ties through potential LNG deals, suggesting Ukraine could serve as a distribution hub for Europe, with Trump indicating he would “probably” meet with Zelensky, possibly in Washington rather than Kyiv, as Ukrainian and American teams work out the details.
German Chancellor Olaf Scholz dismissed discussions about deploying German peacekeeping troops to Ukraine as “premature and inappropriate.” The comments follow reports of potential peace plans involving British and European troops establishing a buffer zone along the front line. While some European nations like the UK and France have considered sending troops to monitor a future ceasefire, Scholz emphasized that peace negotiations must come first, noting that Ukraine will need continued international support to maintain its military forces.
Situation On The Land, Sea, and Air in Ukraine
Ukrainian Operations in the Russian Federation – Initiative Russia
Ukrainian forces repelled a Russian sabotage and reconnaissance group of 13 personnel near Serednya-Buda in Sumy Oblast on February 7, pushing them partially back across the Ukraine-Russia border.
Russian forces maintain positions in southern Cherkasskaya Konopelka, southeast of Sudzha in Kursk Oblast. Fighting continues near Makhnovka, Cherkasskaya Konopelka, and Fanaseyevka, with conflicting reports about control of these settlements. Russian forces also claim to hold positions at the Lotos gas station along the Sudzha-Oboyan highway and report pushing Ukrainian forces from positions near Sverdlikovo.
Ukrainian drones reportedly struck targets in Russia including an attempted attack on an oil refinery in Volgograd Oblast. Russian officials claim they intercepted 36 Ukrainian drones across multiple regions: Rostov Oblast (18), Volgograd Oblast (11), Belgorod Oblast (5), and Krasnodar Krai (2). According to local authorities, no damage or casualties were reported. Ukraine has increasingly used domestically produced drones to strike deep within Russia, targeting military installations, oil refineries, and airfields.
Kharkiv Front – Initiative Russia
Russian forces conducted offensive operations near Vovchansk, northeast of Kharkiv City, but failed to make any advances.
Luhansk Front – Initiative Russia
Kupyansk
Russian forces made marginal advances near Kupyansk, particularly west and northeast of Zapadne. Near Pershotravneve, Russian forces attempted a company-sized mechanized assault but failed, losing 10 armored vehicles. In Dvorichna, Russian forces only control parts of the northern settlement. Russian forces advanced 250-300 meters south along the Oskil River towards Kindrashivka.
Borova
Russian forces continued attacking near Borova but failed to advance. Near Zahryzove, Lovoza, Kopanky, and Novoyehorivka, they launched multiple assaults. At Nova Kruhlyakivka, Ukrainian forces destroyed a Russian tank and three armored personnel carriers. Near Lozova, Ukrainians repelled a platoon-sized mechanized assault, destroying two infantry fighting vehicles and a tank.
Lyman
Russian forces advanced in the Lyman direction, particularly in northwestern Yampolivka where they captured fields east of the settlement. They also reportedly seized Terny northeast of Lyman. Russian forces conducted operations near Yampolivka, Novolyubivka, and towards Nove.
Donetsk Front – Initiative Russia
Russian forces are reportedly redeploying significant military units from the Kurakhove area to the Toretsk direction, including elements of several motorized rifle regiments, a tank regiment, and an artillery regiment. This strategic repositioning, combined with increased Russian activity near Chasiv Yar, suggests that Russia may be planning a major offensive against Kostyantynivka in Spring or Summer 2025. The move appears to be part of a broader strategy to pressure Ukraine’s defensive fortress belt.
Siversk
Russian forces attacked near Siversk but failed to advance. Their assaults focused on Bilohorivka and Verkhnokamyanske, where Ukrainian forces destroyed five armored personnel carriers and 11 motorcycles. Russian forces are adapting their tactics based on ground conditions – using armored vehicles and various mobility platforms during frozen conditions, while switching to infantry assaults when warmer weather makes the terrain less suitable for vehicles.
Chasiv Yar
Ukrainian forces made small gains along the Bakhmut-Kostyantynivka highway near Chasiv Yar, while Russian forces continued their offensive in the area. Fighting is ongoing in Chasiv Yar’s southern districts of Shevchenko and Tsekh No. 2, as well as nearby settlements of Predtechyne and Bila Hora. Russian forces claim to have advanced south of Chasiv Yar, capturing the Stupky and Krinichki areas, and continue operations in western and central parts of the city, including near the Refractory Plant.
Toretsk
Russian forces advanced in northern Toretsk along Kuzanva, Molodoi Hvardii, and Zhovtneva streets, while continuing attacks near Toretsk and Krymske. Russian forces claim to be conducting operations in Toretsk, Druzhba, and Krymske, reportedly positioning themselves 10 kilometers from Kostyantynivka. Ukrainian forces continue to maintain defensive positions in Toretsk, with local commanders confirming their units are holding their ground.
Ukraine’s military reports downing a Russian Su-25 attack aircraft near Toretsk in Donetsk Oblast using MANPADS (Man-Portable Air Defense Systems), and when a Russian Mi-8 helicopter attempted to rescue the downed pilot, Ukrainian forces reportedly damaged it using FPV drones.
Pokrovsk
Russian forces continued offensive operations around Pokrovsk, advancing near Novokalynove and in Baranivka. Fighting occurred near multiple settlements including Yelyzavetivka, Promin, Novooleksandrivka, Zelene Pole, Tarasivka, Myrolyubivka, Lysivka, Uspenivka, Kotlyne Pishchane, Nadiivka, Udachne, Novoserhiivka, and Zaporizhzhia. Ukrainian forces reportedly counterattacked near Udachne, Kotlyne and Pishchane, maintaining positions in southern Kotlyne. Russian forces are attempting to reach the Pokrovsk-Pavlohrad highway, though their attacks have decreased due to foggy weather, with smaller infantry groups replacing mechanized assaults.
Andriivka
Russian forces continued offensive operations around Kurakhove near Shevchenko, Andriivka, Kostiantynopil, Dachne, and Zelenivka, but made no advances. Ukrainian forces maintain positions in western and northwestern Andriivka, though Russian sources claim to control central Andriivka. The significant combat appears focused around Andriivka, with multiple Russian military units operating along the Shevchenko-Andriivka line.
Velyka Novosilka
Russian forces continued offensive operations near Novopil, west of Velyka Novosilka, but made no advances.
Zaporizhia Front – Initiative Russia
Fighting continued in western Zaporizhia Oblast without Russian advances. Ukrainian forces reportedly attempted an unsuccessful armored attack near the settlements of Stepove and Kamyanske, located northwest of Robotyne.
Kherson (Dnipro River) Front – Initiative Russia
No military activity was reported by either side in the Kherson direction.
Ukraine News
Russia launched a major drone attack against Ukraine sending 139 Shahed and decoy drones from multiple launch sites in Kursk, Oryol, Bryansk, Rostov, and Smolensk regions, with Ukraine’s Air Force successfully intercepting 67 drones across 14 regions including Kyiv, Kharkiv, Odesa, and other major oblasts, while 71 decoy drones were neutralized through electronic warfare, and strikes hit targets in Sumy, Poltava, Dnipropetrovsk, and Kyiv regions – these drone attacks have become a daily occurrence, often targeting critical infrastructure and threatening civilian life even in areas far from the front lines, though officials reported no negative consequences from this particular attack.
Commander-in-Chief Oleksandr Syrskyi reported significant military achievements in his first year, including 377 successful strikes on Russian military targets at distances up to 1,700 km. Ukraine’s air defenses destroyed 9,200 air targets, more than double the previous year. Syrskyi, who replaced Valerii Zaluzhnyi on Feb. 8, 2024, emphasized the military’s modernization efforts, including NATO-standard training and improved medical care. His leadership experience includes commanding key battles in Kyiv, Kharkiv Oblast, and Bakhmut following Russia’s invasion.
Ukraine Mobilization and Defense Industrial Base
President Zelensky announced plans to introduce “special contracts” for volunteers aged 18-24, who are currently exempt from Ukraine’s military draft. This initiative comes as Ukraine faces critical manpower shortages and amid U.S. pressure to lower the draft age from 25 to 18. The voluntary contracts will offer significant financial benefits, with details to be announced soon. While U.S. National Security Advisor Michael Waltz suggests lowering the draft age could generate hundreds of thousands of new soldiers, Zelensky maintains this program will be strictly voluntary, emphasizing these are not mobilization measures. The military currently requires open-ended service commitments, but these new contracts would offer fixed terms, potentially attracting more young volunteers.
Ukraine’s Allies
NATO Military Committee Chair Giuseppe Cavo Dragone visited Ukraine meeting with President Volodymyr Zelensky to discuss military aid and weapons production. During their meeting, they toured a long-range missiles plant and discussed expanding Ukraine’s domestic arms production using the “Danish model” of financing. They also reviewed preparations for the upcoming Ramstein format meeting and coordination of military assistance through the NSATU framework. Dragone reaffirmed NATO’s commitment to supporting Ukraine in its defense against Russia’s invasion.
The UK announced a £25 million ($31 million) social recovery program called SPIRIT for Ukraine. Unveiled during Foreign Secretary David Lammy’s Kyiv visit, the initiative partners with Ukraine’s government, UNICEF, and the World Bank. The program will help 10,000 families across ten regions access social services and establish a Social Recovery Office within Ukraine’s Ministry of Social Policy. SPIRIT will focus on supporting vulnerable groups including women, children, disabled persons, elderly, and veterans, while providing grants and training to 100 civil society representatives to expand local support systems.
Russian War Losses (Today/Total)
Troops +1460
849320 |
Tanks +11
9992 |
Artillery +24
22844 |
Arm. Veh. +20
20797 |
Aircraft +1 
370 |
Heli
331 |
Ships
28 |
Russia Mobilization and Defense Industrial Base
Russian President Vladimir Putin ordered his cabinet and prosecutors to ensure that Russian military personnel fighting in the war can maintain their government housing benefits, part of ongoing Kremlin efforts to encourage military service among Russian citizens.
Russia’s Allies
North Korea is set to begin drone production in 2024 with Russian technical assistance, according to Japanese broadcaster NHK. This development follows a strategic partnership treaty between the two countries and comes as North Korea has deployed approximately 8,000 soldiers to support Russia’s war effort in Ukraine’s Kursk Oblast. This military alliance between Russia and North Korea, which includes trade and security cooperation, marks Moscow’s first defense partnership outside the post-Soviet space.
Source Material
Institute for the Study of War – understandingwar.org
The Kyiv Independent – kyivindependent.com
Kyiv Post – kyivpost.com