Summary of the day: Reports emerged that the Russian military command is transferring troops to the Ukrainian-Russian border near Kharkiv Oblast, though their immediate deployment remains uncertain. Ukrainian forces launched a drone strike on a Russian airfield in North Ossetia-Alania. Ukrainian military observer Kostyantyn Mashovets highlighted the limited impact of Russian force generation efforts, noting only a fraction of the monthly personnel arrive as combat force replacements. Meanwhile, Russian forces have made recent advancements north of Kharkiv City, southeast of Kupyansk, within easternmost Chasiv Yar, northwest of Avdiivka, and southwest of Donetsk City. In diplomatic developments, US President Joe Biden met with Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky in Paris.
These updates will be shorter until the end of July and will only use the Institute for the Study of War as a source while we are on holiday visiting family and friends. We will be back to our normal coverage again starting on July 22, 2024.
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Beyond Ukraine – The March Towards World War
Moldovan MP Oazu Nantoi claimed that the Kremlin is using the pro-Russian “Victory” electoral bloc to spread disinformation and mobilize pro-Russian supporters in Moldova. He said the goal is to create fear, chaos, and control Moldovan society. Nantoi urged Moldova to combat Russia’s media and political influence. He compared the Kremlin’s tactics in Moldova to its use of the “Ninth Wave” information company to spread false narratives about Ukraine. The “Victory” bloc, created in April 2024, is seen as a Kremlin tool to destabilize Moldova.
Situation On The Land, Sea, and Air in Ukraine
Ukrainian observer Kostyantyn Mashovets reported on June 8 that only a small portion of the 30,000 troops Russia recruits each month actually reach the front as combat replacements, with Russian operational groups getting about 1,000 to 1,500 new combat personnel monthly, sometimes up to 2,000 during intense offensives. Although Russia recruits about 30,000 new personnel monthly, many serve in support roles. Russian forces balance their casualty rates with new recruits, avoiding prolonged intense offensives, resulting in alternating periods of heavy assaults and lower activity to manage losses and reinforcements. Over the past six to eight months, Russia has built up around 60,000 personnel in reserves, but these troops are likely not well-trained or equipped. These reserves have mainly been used to reinforce units in heavy assaults and are not ready for large-scale combined arms operations, nor will they support simultaneous offensives in multiple directions. Consequently, the Russian command will likely focus on one main effort for any major summer offensive.
Russian sources reported that Ukrainian forces launched several drones over occupied Crimea overnight. The Russian Ministry of Defense claimed air defenses shot down five drones and jammed four others over Crimea and destroyed two Ukrainian naval drones in the Black Sea. Explosions were reportedly heard at Striletska Bay, where the Russian Black Sea Fleet destroyed a naval drone.
The UK Ministry of Defense reported on June 8 that satellite imagery shows Russian forces have installed eight barges on the southern side of the Kerch Strait Bridge, starting on May 10 and finishing by May 22, likely to defend against Ukrainian unmanned surface vehicles. Previous storm damage has reduced the effectiveness of other barriers. Ukraine’s Southern Operational Command spokesperson, Captain Dmytro Pletenchuk, stated that a recent Ukrainian attack on a Russian tugboat shows these barriers are overestimated. Pletenchuk added that Russia is working to restore damaged ferries across the Kerch Strait and plans to complete an alternative railway route through southern Ukraine by the end of 2024.
The Russian Black Sea Fleet has recently moved ships to the Black Sea and the Sea of Azov. The Ukrainian Navy reported one Russian ship in the Black Sea and seven in the Sea of Azov, including three cruise missile carriers with 24 Kalibr missiles. Captain Dmytro Pletenchuk stated that these movements aim to reduce the risk of drone strikes. Russian naval command likely realized that concentrating ships in Novorossiysk is too risky. Satellite imagery shows that Russian forces have moved at least 18 vessels from Novorossiysk, with some remaining nearby and others in the Black Sea.
Kharkiv Front – Initiative Russia
The Russian military is moving troops to the Ukrainian border near Kharkiv Oblast, but their immediate use is unclear. Chechen Akhmat Spetsnaz forces are being transferred to this area, possibly to prevent retreats. The Russian command is increasing forces near the border by bringing in units from other areas, including Kherson Oblast. The aim is to boost the Northern Grouping of Forces, currently estimated at 35,000 personnel, but the goal was 50,000 to 70,000. Recent offensive operations involve about 15,000 Russian troops.
Lyptsi
Russian forces likely seized Hlyboke, north of Lyptsi, amid ongoing fighting, supported by geolocated footage from June 7 showing their advance to southern Hlyboke. Conflicting reports emerged, with one Russian milblogger claiming Ukrainian forces conducted a successful counterattack near Hlyboke, while another refuted this. A Russian source suggested that Ukrainian forces might have pushed Russian forces from the dacha area north of Lyptsi and southwest of Hlyboke.
Vovchansk
Ukrainian forces conducted tactical counterattacks in Vovchansk, northeast of Kharkiv City while Russian forces continued their offensive, but there were no confirmed changes to the frontline. Ukrainian spokesperson Lieutenant Colonel Nazar Voloshyn reported that over 300 guided glide bombs have hit Vovchansk since May 1, 2024. Voloshyn claimed Ukrainian forces control most of Vovchansk and recently liberated several blocks. The US National Security Council stated that Ukrainian defenses have stalled Russian advances in the Kharkiv direction, causing some Russian units to pull back.
Luhansk Front – Initiative Russia
Russian forces have recently advanced southeast of Kupyansk and continued their offensive along the Kupyansk-Svatove-Kreminna line. Geolocated footage from June 7 shows limited Russian advances northeast of Stepova Novoselivka. A Russian milblogger claimed further advances southeast of Synkivka, though there is no visual confirmation. Russian assaults took place northeast of Kupyansk near Synkivka, southeast near Pishchane, Ivanivka, and Andriivka, and in various locations near and around Kreminna. The Russian Ministry of Defense reported repelling three Ukrainian counterattacks in the area.
Donetsk Front – Initiative Russia
Siversk
Russian forces continued their offensive near Siversk, targeting areas around Bilohorivka, Zolotarivka, Vyimka, and Rozdolivka. Russian milbloggers criticized the assaults near Bilohorivka, noting poor command and resulting losses.
Chasiv Yar
Russian forces recently advanced in eastern Chasiv Yar, particularly within the Kanal Microraion, according to geolocated footage from June 8. Russian milbloggers claimed further advances in northern, central, and southern Kanal Microraion, though these are unconfirmed. They also reported a 100-meter westward advance within Kalynivka. Russian forces continued offensive operations near Chasiv Yar in Kalynivka, Kanal, Novyi Microraions, Ivanivske, Klishchiivka, and Andriivka. There are claims of new laser-guided projectiles being used, but these are unverified.
Avdiivka
Russian forces reportedly advanced northwest of Avdiivka amid intensified operations. Russian milbloggers claimed advances in central Novooleksandrivka and near Sokil, though these claims are unconfirmed. Offensive operations continued in areas around Avdiivka, including Novooleksandrivka, Novopokrovske, and Yevhenivka. Ukrainian spokesperson Lieutenant Colonel Nazar Voloshyn reported repelling nearly 220 Russian assaults in the past week and noted increased activity in the Pokrovsk and Kurakhove directions. Ukrainian forces are constraining the offensives of at least three Russian brigades.
Southwest of Donetsk City
Russian forces advanced southwest of Donetsk City and continued their offensive. Geolocated footage from June 7 shows a mechanized assault northwest of Solodke. Offensive operations also occurred west of Donetsk City near Heorhiivka and Krasnohorivka, and southwest near Paraskoviivka and Kostyantynivka. Russian forces are reportedly operating near Vuhledar.
Zaporizhia Front – Initiative Russia
Zaporizhia-Donetsk Border Area
Russian forces continued their offensive operations in the Donetsk-Zaporizhia Oblast border area, specifically south of Velyka Novosilka near Zavitne Bazhannya, Urozhaine, and Staromayorske.
Zaporizhia Line
Russian sources claimed that their forces advanced near Robotyne, though no visual evidence confirms this. Vladimir Rogov, a Russian official known for questionable reports, claimed Russian forces advanced north of Robotyne, with Ukrainian positions 500 to 700 meters away. A Russian milblogger reported minor advances near Mala Tokmachka. Russian forces reportedly attacked near Robotyne, Verbove, Mala Tokmachka, Novopokrovka, Novoprokopivka, Kopani, and south of Mali Shcherbaky.
Kherson (Dnipro River) Front – Initiative None
Russian forces continued unsuccessful attacks on Ukraine’s bridgehead on the east bank of Kherson Oblast near Krynky. Kherson Oblast occupation governor Vladimir Saldo claimed that Ukrainian forces struck a store in occupied Sadove on June 7, killing 22 people.
Ukraine News
Russian forces conducted limited drone and missile strikes against Ukraine overnight. Ukrainian Air Force Commander Lieutenant General Mykola Oleshchuk reported that Russia launched a Kh-59 cruise missile and 13 Shahed-136/131 drones from Kursk Oblast and Crimea. Ukrainian forces shot down the Kh-59 missile and nine Shahed drones over Kharkiv, Zaporizhia, Poltava, and Dnipropetrovsk oblasts. An infrastructure facility in Dnipropetrovsk Oblast was damaged. Russian milbloggers shared footage of fires in Kharkiv City and at an oil depot in Kyiv Oblast, but no official Ukrainian reports confirmed strikes in these areas.
Russian strikes have severely damaged Ukraine’s energy grid, leaving only 27% of large thermal power plants operational. Ukrainian Prime Minister Denys Shmyhal reported that 73% of these plants were damaged or destroyed, cutting Ukraine’s power generation capacity by 9.2 gigawatts. Before the invasion, Ukraine’s energy production was 55 gigawatts, now it’s below 20 gigawatts. Russia has destroyed 42 power generators and damaged 20 hydropower generators. Ukraine is working to restore capacity before winter and is currently importing 1.7 gigawatts from the EU, with a maximum import potential of 2.2 gigawatts.
Ukraine’s Main Military Intelligence Directorate (GUR) and Russian opposition outlets reported an assassination attempt on former Russian occupation mayor of Kupyansk, Hennadiy Matsehora, in Stary Oskol, Belgorod Oblast, on June 7. Matsehora is in critical condition at a Moscow hospital. He defected to help Russian forces in February 2022 after being elected Mayor of Kupyansk in 2020, and Ukrainian authorities plan to try him for treason in absentia.
Ukraine’s Allies
US President Joe Biden met with Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky in Paris on June 7 to discuss the battlefield situation, Ukraine’s defense capabilities, and a forthcoming US-Ukraine security agreement. Biden apologized for delays in US security assistance and reaffirmed support against Russian aggression. Zelensky emphasized the need for more security aid and the ability to strike military targets in Russia. Delays in US aid have weakened Ukraine’s defenses and allowed Russian forces to make gains in northern Kharkiv Oblast.
Russia News
Ukrainian forces conducted a drone strike on a Russian military airfield in North Ossetia. Geolocated footage shows a drone targeting Mozdok Airbase with a subsequent smoke plume. North Ossetia’s head claimed Russian forces shot down three drones, causing minor damage. The Russian Ministry of Defense reported destroying a drone over the region. Confusion arose with reports mistakenly identifying the strike location as an oil field in Nogai Raion, Dagestan.
Elvira Nabiullina, head of Russia’s Central Bank, is seen as a balancing force among President Putin’s economic advisors, countering Finance Minister Anton Siluanov and Kremlin Deputy Chief of Staff Maxim Oreshkin, who push for aggressive war efforts. Known for her straightforwardness and lack of corruption, Nabiullina raises concerns about labor shortages and the high defense budget’s impact on the economy. Despite Putin overruling her in some cases, he values her track record for stability and is unlikely to remove her to avoid appearing destabilized. She has mitigated economic fallout from Putin’s actions, such as stabilizing the ruble after Crimea’s annexation in 2014, and reportedly tried to resign in May 2022 over the Ukraine invasion but stayed to protect her deputies. Since the invasion, she has worked to minimize economic impacts on the public and continues to speak candidly to Putin about economic issues, even as he removes officials seen as disloyal.
Russian Mobilization and Defense Industrial Base
Russian regions continue recruiting for volunteer formations. On June 4, Dagestani news outlet Golos Stepi reported that Dagestan is recruiting for the “Kaspiy” (“Caspian”) volunteer detachment from inactive reservists or those without military service. The detachment seeks riflemen, machine gunners, grenade launchers, mortar men, snipers, signalmen, and other roles for six-, eight-, or 12-month contracts with the Russian Ministry of Defense. Candidates must be 20 to 60 years old, with a monthly salary of 205,000 rubles ($2,292), signing benefits, social benefits, and veteran status upon contract completion.
Russian defense companies are enhancing electronic warfare (EW) capabilities against Ukrainian drone strikes. Sergey Shandobylo, Development Director of the EW company Trimix (3mx), stated that 3mx is developing a drone jammer to disable enemy drones mid-air, expected by the end of 2024. Shandobylo also mentioned that 3mx is testing the “Tamerlan” system to protect Russian sites from drone attacks, capable of detecting drones up to three kilometers away and tracking them within 500 meters until neutralized.
Russia’s Allies
On June 7, Radio Free Europe/Radio Liberty’s Belarusian service reported that satellite images show Belarus constructing two new storage facilities at the 465th Missile Brigade base in Asipovichy, Mogilev Oblast. At least one facility houses an Iskander-M missile system. The images, taken from July 2023 to May 2024, show facilities like those built earlier, likely for Iskanders. Each hangar can store up to 12 combat vehicles. Belarusian President Alexander Lukashenko stated that Belarus has two Iskander-M batteries, totaling 24 vehicles. Defense analyst Konrad Muzyka suggested these hangars might be for a new Iskander-M battery to complete a full brigade.
Russian Narrative and Propaganda
Russian actors are using video appeals from servicemen to deny reports of high losses in northern Kharkiv Oblast. On June 8, Russian opposition outlet Astra reported that pro-war Telegram channels shared edited footage on June 7, where claimed servicemen of the 1009th Motorized Rifle Regiment denied the regiment’s destruction. Earlier footage showed a soldier from the regiment’s 5th Company saying only 12 out of 100 soldiers remained after fighting near Vovchansk. Astra reported that actors altered an unrelated video from a BARS unit, replacing the original audio with a refutation of the 1009th Regiment’s destruction. The original video asked for drone donations, and the soldiers’ mouths were covered, making the audio replacement easy.
The Russian Ministry of Internal Affairs has reportedly placed former Ukrainian Prime Minister Yulia Tymoshenko on its wanted list. Tymoshenko was previously imprisoned on politically motivated charges under pro-Russian President Viktor Yanukovych. The Kremlin has also listed other Ukrainian political and military officials, likely aiming to discredit pro-Western Ukrainian governments that supported the 2004 Orange Revolution and the 2014 Euromaidan Revolution.
The Kremlin is likely using pro-Russian Western officials to legitimize its narratives about the West. Former Austrian Foreign Minister Karin Kneissl claimed in an interview with Kremlin newswire TASS that Milorad Dodik, President of Republika Srpska, told her the West plans to “divide” Russia—a common Kremlin narrative to justify its actions. Kneissl, who has close ties to Putin, is being used by the Kremlin to influence perceptions in the Balkans.
Russian milbloggers highlighted Ukrainian political voices criticizing Ukraine’s frontline situation.
Source Material
Institute for the Study of War – understandingwar.org