Summary of the Day:
Russian forces advanced along multiple fronts today, gaining ground near Svatove, Kreminna, Chasiv Yar, Toretsk, Pokrovsk, and Kurakhove. However, Ukrainian drone operations continue to effectively constrain Russian mechanized movements, helping offset Ukraine’s current manpower challenges. President Zelensky reports Russian forces are suffering severe casualties, losing between 1,500-2,000 troops daily.
In a significant development, Russia has modified its attack strategy by deploying decoy Shahed drones alongside new variants with thermobaric warheads. The Alabuga Special Economic Zone is producing hundreds of these decoys, which now comprise over half of recent drone attacks. Ukrainian Air Force spokesperson Colonel Yuriy Ihnat reports these decoys are forcing Ukraine to expend resources while potentially allowing armed missiles to breach defenses.
Internal turmoil has emerged within Russian forces as several commanders of the 3rd Combined Arms Army were arrested for falsely reporting advances near Bilohorivka. This comes as President Zelensky emphasizes Ukraine’s determination to negotiate only from a position of strength, rejecting any settlement that would result in Ukrainian capitulation.
In a concerning international development, North Korean leader Kim Jong-un has ordered mass production of tactical strike drones, reportedly like Russian “Lancet” models. This military advancement, emerging from increased Russian-North Korean cooperation during the Ukraine war, signals a troubling expansion of North Korea’s military capabilities.
Picture of the Day:
Smoke rises from a fire at a house in the middle of the city, approximately 10 kilometers from the front line in Pokrovsk, Ukraine. (Kostiantyn Liberov/Libkos/Getty Images)
Beyond Ukraine – The March Towards World War
North Korean leader Kim Jong-un has ordered mass production of tactical strike drones, reportedly like Russian “Lancet” models. This military advancement, emerging from increased Russian-North Korean cooperation during the Ukraine war, signals a dangerous expansion of North Korea’s military capabilities. The collaboration between these two nations not only threatens stability in the Asia Pacific region but also potentially undermines international peace efforts by allowing North Korea to modernize its military arsenal through lessons learned from the Ukraine conflict. This development particularly concerns security experts as it represents another step in North Korea’s growing military sophistication and its ability to pose credible threats beyond its borders.
South Korean President Yoon Suk Yeol urged Chinese President Xi Jinping to help curb North Korea’s growing military alliance with Russia, which threatens global stability through its support of the Ukraine war. This triangular relationship between North Korea, Russia, and China poses significant risks to world peace, particularly as North Korea continues its provocations. While Xi expressed preference for peaceful dialogue and avoiding Korean Peninsula tensions, his noncommittal response and focus on bilateral relations with South Korea suggests China may be reluctant to actively intervene in restraining its North Korean ally, potentially allowing the dangerous Moscow-Pyongyang military cooperation to continue unchecked.
Russia’s decision to cut natural gas supplies to Austria on November 16, 2024, marks a critical escalation in global tensions. The move, targeting a country that relied on Russia for 98% of its gas, demonstrates Moscow’s willingness to weaponize energy resources despite the risks to international stability. While Austria claims readiness with alternative supplies from Germany, Italy, and the Netherlands, the broader implications are concerning. Ukraine’s refusal to renew its gas transit agreement with Russia by year’s end could trigger wider energy disruptions across Europe, potentially fracturing international alliances and undermining peace efforts. This development, coupled with Austria’s recent $243 million arbitration victory against Gazprom, highlights how energy security and global peace have become dangerously intertwined in current world politics.
The Path to Peace
President Zelensky emphasized that Ukraine must negotiate from a position of strength, stating that Putin would only engage in talks leading to Ukrainian capitulation and might use negotiations to break his international isolation. While noting US support, Zelensky stressed that any mediators must remember Russia’s violations of Ukrainian territory in 2014 and 2022. He aims to end the war diplomatically in 2025, maintaining that successful negotiations require forcing Putin to change his stance and genuine compromise, with mandatory U.S. involvement rather than direct Ukraine-Russia talks. Zelensky acknowledged current military challenges, including slow Russian advances, Ukrainian troop fatigue, and delays in receiving promised U.S. weapons, though he expressed confidence in Ukraine’s air defense capabilities for the winter while indicating a need for increased force mobilization.
German Chancellor Scholz urged Putin to withdraw during their first call in two years, European partners are reportedly considering a controversial peace deal involving Ukrainian territorial concessions. The situation grows more complex as world leaders engage in diplomatic talks – Scholz will discuss the conflict with China’s Xi Jinping at the G20 Summit, while U.S. President Biden plans similar discussions at the APEC Summit regarding China’s support for Russia and North Korea’s military involvement. These developments suggest increasing international pressure for a negotiated settlement, though potentially at significant cost to Ukraine’s territorial integrity.
Situation On The Land, Sea, and Air in Ukraine
Ukrainian President Zelensky reported that while Russian forces are making some advances along the front line, they’re suffering severe casualties of 1,500-2,000 troops daily, with Ukrainian drone operations effectively limiting Russian mechanized movements and advances, particularly near Selydove. Russian troops have adapted by moving in small groups of two to four soldiers under tree cover to avoid drone detection, especially in the Pokrovsk direction, though these small-unit tactics are proving inefficient in open rural areas where forces can only move supplies and reinforcements when Ukrainian drones are occupied elsewhere. Despite Russian attempts to improve vehicle protection systems, Ukrainian drones have successfully targeted Russian armor in Kursk and Donetsk oblasts and near Kupyansk, preventing major breakthroughs and raising concerns about Russia’s ability to sustain vehicle losses given their limited production capacity and dwindling Soviet-era stockpiles. Zelensky acknowledged that Ukrainian morale has been affected by delays in troop rotation and equipment supplies, though drone operations have helped offset these current manpower challenges.
The Russian military command has reportedly arrested several leaders of the 3rd Combined Arms Army, including its commander and chief of staff, following false reports about advances near Bilohorivka. The arrests came after Russian military bloggers repeatedly complained about commanders submitting incorrect battle reports and conducting ineffective assaults. The deception was discovered when high-ranking officials attempted to visit Bilohorivka, believing it was under Russian control. These command failures near Bilohorivka are particularly significant as Russian forces have been unsuccessfully attempting to capture the settlement since May 2022, while recent footage shows Ukrainian forces actually regaining positions in northern Bilohorivka.
The National Guard’s 27th Pechersk Brigade destroyed Russia’s 1000th air defense system of the war, a $10 million BUK-M1 anti-aircraft missile system. Interior Minister Ihor Klymenko shared video of the strike but did not specify its location. The BUK-M1, a Soviet-era system used by both sides in the conflict, was previously modified by Ukraine to fire American missiles instead of its original Russian ammunition.
Russian forces briefly crossed into Ukraine’s Chernihiv Oblast near the Sudost River bridge between Hremyach and Kolos on November 15, planting flags that Ukrainian drone operators removed today, though they did not enter the settlements of Hremyach or Muravi despite claims by Russian military bloggers; Ukraine’s Border Service dismissed the incident as a psychological tactic without military significance, noting there’s no evidence of any permanent Russian presence in the area and suggesting it was likely just a temporary reconnaissance mission, while deploying additional forces to prevent sabotage in the area of Chernihiv Oblast, which borders both Russia and Belarus and was briefly occupied in early 2022 before Russian forces withdrew.
Ukrainian Operations in the Russian Federation – Initiative None
Russian forces launched attacks in Ukraine’s Kursk Oblast targeting positions near Malaya Loknya and Martynovka, though achieving no confirmed advances. Ukrainian Ground Forces Commander Lt. Gen. Oleksandr Pavlyuk reported destroying 17 Russian armored vehicles during a recent assault, likely referring to a November 12 battalion-sized attack near Novoivanovka.
Kharkiv Front – Initiative Russia
Russian forces attacked several areas near Kharkiv City targeting Vovchansk, Vysoka Yaruha, and Strilecha. While a Russian military blogger claimed Russian forces captured Sotnytskyi Kozachok northwest of Kharkiv City, this hasn’t been independently confirmed. Russian forces are reportedly preparing for increased attacks near Strilecha with preliminary artillery strikes.
Luhansk Front – Initiative Russia
Russian forces made small advances near Svatove and Kreminna, gaining ground in southern Vyshneve and central Terny. While fighting continues around Kupyansk, with Russian forces claiming advances near the sugar factory and towards Holubivka and Kupyansk-Vuzlovyi, these claims remain unconfirmed. Russian forces are also attacking multiple settlements including Pishchane, Kolisnykivka, Kruhlyakivka, Zahryzove, Berestove, Kopanky, Nadiya, Tverdokhlibove, Novoyehorivka, Hrekivka, Cherneshchyna, Makiivka, and Torske.
Donetsk Front – Initiative Russia
Siversk
Russian forces launched attacks near the settlements of Verkhnokamyanske and Vyimka in the Siversk area but failed to gain ground. Russian forces also reportedly used TOS-1A thermobaric artillery to strike near Bilohorivka.
Chasiv Yar
Russian forces made progress near Chasiv Yar, advancing to Dubrovskyi Street in the central part of the city and conducting operations near Bila Hora.
Toretsk
Russian forces advanced in Toretsk, pushing along Naberezhna Street and reaching Promeneva Street in the southern part of the city. While there are unconfirmed claims of additional advances to Havrilova Street and the capture of Krymske, Russian forces continued operations near Toretsk and in the nearby areas of Dyliivka and Shcherbynivka.
Pokrovsk
Russian forces advanced in the Pokrovsk area, capturing Hryhorivka as confirmed by footage showing a Russian flag in the western part of the settlement. The Russian 15th Motorized Rifle Brigade’s “Black Hussars” detachment reportedly led this operation. While there are unconfirmed claims of advances near Novooleksiivka, Pustynka, and Yurivka, Russian forces conducted operations near multiple settlements including Promin, Myrolyubivka, Krutyi Yar, Lysivka, and Petrivka, with the 11th Air Force and Air Defense Army operating near Sukhyi Yar.
Kurakhove
Russian forces advanced near Kurakhove, capturing Voznesenka and nearby fields. While there are unconfirmed claims of advances south of Novoselydivka, towards Berestky, and into central Kurakhove, Russian forces conducted operations across multiple areas including Sontsivka, Novodmytrivka, Zorya, Illinka, Maksymilyanivka, and Dalne.
Russian forces are moving significant military equipment through Mariupol toward Volnovakha, likely to support operations near Kurakhove. This marks the highest level of transport activity in Mariupol in 18 months, with most equipment coming directly from Russia rather than occupied Zaporizhia. While there are reports of potential increased Russian operations in Zaporizhia, the movement of equipment away from this area may suggest otherwise.
Southwest of Donetsk City
Russian forces reportedly advanced near Antonivka in the Vuhledar area, though this remains unconfirmed. While Russian sources claim their forces are close to the C051104 highway near Uspenivka, they are actually about 7.5 kilometers away. Russian operations continued near several settlements including Katerynivka, Illinka, Romanivka, Sukhi Yaly, and Trudove, where Ukrainian forces are reportedly counterattacking.
Zaporizhia Front – Initiative Russia
Zaporizhia-Donetsk Border Area
Russian forces launched attacks near the Donetsk-Zaporizhia border. They claimed to have captured Makarivka, south of Velyka Novosilka, though this remains unconfirmed. Russian forces also reportedly advanced toward Novodarivka, while conducting operations near Rivnopil. Russian troops hold most of Makarivka but haven’t secured its northern section. Ukrainian officials report that Russian forces aim to capture all of southern Donetsk Oblast and push northward.
Zaporizhia Line
Russian forces attacked near Novoandriivka in western Zaporizhia Oblast. They claimed to have advanced about half a kilometer from Robotyne toward Novodanylivka, though this progress remains unconfirmed. No changes to the frontline have been verified.
Kherson (Dnipro River) Front – Initiative Russia
Fighting continued along the Dnipro River in eastern Kherson Oblast with no changes to the frontline. Ukrainian forces struck a Russian command post in occupied Chelburda, located north of Radensk and east of Kherson City.
Ukraine News
Russia launched a major aerial attack on Ukraine overnight using 83 Shahed drones and missiles. Ukrainian forces shot down 53 drones across twelve regions, while 30 others were disrupted. The attacks damaged a residential building in Kyiv and critical infrastructure in Zaporizhzhia City.
Innocent Victims Of War
The casualty count of civilians in the past 24 hours: (Russian War Crimes)
DEATHS: 7 INJURIES: 18
In Kyiv’s Pechersk district, falling drone debris caused a fire in a fourth-floor apartment of a five-story building, with one person hospitalized and another receiving on-site medical care. The attack damaged residential buildings, a club, and a library in the capital, while in Kyiv Oblast, 21 houses and industrial facilities were damaged, and a 45-year-old woman suffered a head wound.
In Mykolaiv, a Russian drone and missile attack killed two people and injured seven others, including two children, while damaging homes, a multi-story building, cars, a shopping center, and an infrastructure facility.
In Dnipro, a Russian attack injured a 42-year-old man and damaged high-rise buildings, an educational institution, and a car. A separate strike on a railway depot in Dnipropetrovsk Oblast killed two railway workers and injured three others.
In Zaporizhzhia Oblast, Russian strikes hit infrastructure facilities, injuring two people in the city of Zaporizhzhia – a 59-year-old man was hospitalized, and an 18-year-old man received on-site medical treatment.
In Lviv Oblast’s Sheptytskyi district, fallen missile debris caused 12 garages to catch fire and killed a 66-year-old woman in her car, while two others were injured.
In Odesa Oblast, two people were killed and a 17-year-old boy was injured.
In Poltava Oblast, one civilian was hospitalized with serious injuries.
Russia’s attack on Mykolaiv damaged several private residences, a multi-story building, cars, a shopping center, and an infrastructure facility. (State Emergency Service / Telegram)
Ukraine’s Allies
The G7 leaders issued a statement pledging continued support for Ukraine and maintaining pressure on Russia through sanctions and export controls. Led by Italian Prime Minister Giorgia Meloni, the group reaffirmed their commitment of $50 billion in loans to Ukraine, backed by frozen Russian assets. The funds will support Ukraine’s economy, defense, and rebuilding efforts.
The U.S. and Ukraine announced a partnership at the UN Climate Change Conference in Baku to transition Ukraine’s coal plants to small modular nuclear reactors (SMRs), which can be transported and assembled on site. The initiative aims to help rebuild and decarbonize Ukraine’s steel industry, which previously generated 10% of Ukraine’s pre-war GDP but now operates at less than a third of its 2021 capacity. The partnership comes as Ukraine faces a severe energy crisis, with Russia having destroyed half of its electricity generation capacity. While Ukraine’s remaining three nuclear plants provide 60% of its power, they face potential Russian attacks. A pilot plant demonstrating clean hydrogen and ammonia production using SMR technology is also planned.
Japanese Foreign Minister Takeshi Iwaya met with President Zelensky in Kyiv focusing on North Korea’s military involvement in Ukraine and Japan’s continued support. Following a visit to Bucha, where Russian forces committed atrocities against civilians, Iwaya pledged Japan’s backing for Ukraine’s Peace Formula and victory plan. Ukrainian officials emphasized that North Korean troops fighting alongside Russian forces in Kursk Oblast pose threats beyond Europe. During the meeting, Zelensky invited Japan’s new Prime Minister Ishiba to visit Ukraine.
Estonia’s cabinet approved a new military aid package for Ukraine, including munitions, naval uniforms, observation equipment, sights, and protective gear. Defense Minister Hanno Pevkur announced this during his recent visit to Kyiv, where he met with President Volodymyr Zelensky.
Life in Russian Occupied Ukraine
Ukrainian partisan group Atesh has claimed responsibility for sabotaging a railway near occupied Tokmak in Zaporizhzhia Oblast. The group reportedly burned a relay cabinet between two rail stations, disrupting Russia’s military supply chain in the region. This sabotage comes as Russian forces are intensifying their offensive in the Zaporizhzhia direction, with Moscow recently deploying trained assault groups to frontline positions. Atesh, known for regular sabotage operations in occupied Ukraine and Russia, stated that these disruptions undermine Russian combat effectiveness by complicating logistics for ammunition and fuel supplies.
Russia News
A Russian court has allowed Yegor Guzenko, administrator of the critical military blog “Thirteenth,” to serve in Ukraine instead of facing jail time. Guzenko was arrested in October in Stavropol Krai under unclear circumstances. While he initially refused military service, claiming he was “more needed on the information front,” he has apparently changed his position. His Telegram channel continues to criticize Russian authorities and plans to release interviews with Guzenko defending himself against alleged slander during his imprisonment.
Russian War Losses (Today/Total)
| Troops +1640
720880 |
Tanks +12
9350 |
Artillery +36
20556 |
Arm. VEH +27
19021 |
Aircraft
369 |
Heli
329 |
Ships
28 |
Russia Mobilization and Defense Industrial Base
The Russian Central Bank has more than doubled its loan payment deferrals for military personnel, issuing about 54,200 new credit holidays between July-September 2024, up from 30,000 in the same period of 2023, according to Russian opposition outlet Mediazona. This significant increase in deferrals, which were introduced in early 2023 as a financial incentive for military service, may indicate higher military recruitment rates. This comes at a time when the Kremlin appears concerned about Russia’s economic stability and is working to reduce various benefits for soldiers serving in Ukraine.
Russia’s Alabuga Special Economic Zone is now producing hundreds of decoy Shahed drones alongside new variants with thermobaric warheads, with Ukrainian Air Force spokesperson Colonel Yuriy Ihnat reporting that over half of recent Russian drone attacks have been decoys, which are indistinguishable from armed drones on radar and force Ukraine to expend resources and reveal air defense positions while allowing armed missiles to potentially breach defenses. Though Ukraine has adapted its electronic warfare to counter these decoys, their low cost and ability to distract continue to pose challenges, particularly as the thermobaric variants, making up 3-5% of recent strikes, carry 50-52 kilogram warheads with an extended range of up to 140 kilometers and are designed to create devastating pressure waves and heat that can penetrate thick walls, threatening both Ukraine’s defense industry and winter heating capabilities while potentially causing severe civilian casualties including collapsed lungs and brain damage. The project, codenamed Operation False Target, has reportedly received support from both China and Iran, with China allegedly establishing a secret production facility and Iran continuing to supply Shahed-type drones.
Russia’s Allies
North Korean long-range artillery has been spotted on railway flatcars in Krasnoyarsk, Siberia, roughly 2,734 miles from the North Korea-Russia border, with weapons identified as 170mm M1989 Koksan self-propelled artillery that could help Russia counter Ukraine’s NATO-supplied artillery advantage, though experts note the dated weapon system’s limitations in accuracy and firing rate; according to a Ukrainian intelligence assessment, North Korea has delivered 50 self-propelled howitzers, 20 multiple launch rocket systems, including updated 240mm MLRS systems, and approximately 4.8 million artillery shells to Russia, while 11,000 North Korean troops are training with Russian forces in Kursk Oblast, with some already deployed in combat, following a mutual defense treaty signed between Russia and North Korea in June which Putin recently signed into law, reportedly in exchange for missile technology and food supplies; in response, South Korea’s President Yoon Suk Yeol has indicated possible weapons support to Ukraine, marking a shift from their previous policy of providing only humanitarian aid.
Controlling the Narrative and Russian Propaganda
A concerning development in Russia’s military education: State TV propagandist Vladimir Solovyov may now be training senior Russian military officers in “Geostrategy of Modern Society,” reportedly approved by Defense Minister Andrei Belousov. If true, this suggests the Kremlin is further blending military strategy with state propaganda, potentially affecting battlefield decisions in Ukraine. However, this claim remains unverified.
Source Material
Institute for the Study of War – understandingwar.org
The Kyiv Independent – kyivindependent.com
Kyiv Post – kyivpost.com