Summary of the day: The Biden Administration’s policy change allowing Ukraine to use US-provided weapons to strike specific Russian military targets has reduced Russia’s ground sanctuary by only 16 percent. Ukrainian forces likely struck a Russian Su-57 fighter aircraft at the Aktyubinsk Airfield and may have hit a Russian large landing ship or patrol boat in Yeysk. The Kremlin’s campaign to remove and arrest senior defense officials appears to be extending to civilian officials. Meanwhile, Russian forces have recently advanced near Kupyansk, Siversk, Chasiv Yar, Avdiivka, and Donetsk City, while also intensifying efforts to coerce migrants into military service.
These updates will be shorter until the end of July and will only use the Institute for the Study of War as a source while we are on holiday visiting family and friends. We will be back to our normal coverage again starting on July 22, 2024.
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Beyond Ukraine – The March Towards World War
The pro-Kremlin Moldovan Victory opposition bloc held its second congress in Moscow, discussing the upcoming October 2024 Moldovan presidential election and an EU accession referendum. Bloc founder Ilan Shor expressed confidence in defeating President Maia Sandu and emphasized joining the Eurasian Economic Union. Chairperson Vasile Bolea warned against Moldova distancing itself from Russia, while Gagauzia Governor Yevgenia Gutsul claimed the congress was held in Russia due to threats from the Moldovan government and warned of potential conflict if Moldova joins the EU. Gutsul strengthened her Kremlin ties during the St. Petersburg International Economic Forum (SPIEF), meeting briefly with Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov and expressing Gagauzia’s desire for closer cooperation with Russia. She also met with several prominent Russian officials, including United Russia State Duma Deputy Nikolay Valuev and St. Petersburg Governor Alexander Beglov, and attended a panel on “traditional values” with RT editor-in-chief Margarita Simonyan. Gutsul mentioned plans to meet with Russian President Vladimir Putin again, despite Moldovan government pressure.
Former pro-Russian Moldovan president Igor Dodon, now head of the Moldovan Socialist Party, gave interviews to Russian state news agencies, accusing the Moldovan government of militarizing the country and preparing for a “Ukrainian scenario” by increasing defense spending and NATO cooperation. Dodon claimed the October 2024 presidential election will be illegitimate and called for Moldova to join Russia-led organizations like the EAEU and CIS. He also alleged persecution by the government against opposition figures and warned of potential provocations in Transnistria and Gagauzia. The Kremlin may exploit its ties to Dodon to destabilize Moldovan democracy and influence its government. Dodon urged opposition parties to unite against President Maia Sandu in the upcoming election, suggesting a non-political, well-known candidate. Despite a complicated relationship with Ilan Shor, Dodon emphasized the need for cooperation. His interviews reveal reluctance to collaborate fully with Shor and the Victory bloc yet highlight the Kremlin’s likely strategy to use these connections to influence the election. This coordinated effort aims to challenge Sandu’s leadership.
Russian Ministry of Foreign Affairs Spokesperson Maria Zakharova accused Russia’s neighbors of anti-Russian actions. She claimed in an interview with TASS that Poland, Finland, and the Baltic countries are persecuting Russian citizens and Russian speakers by confiscating their documents and interrogating them. Zakharova also criticized Armenian Ambassador to Ukraine Vladimir Karapetyan for visiting Bucha, calling it an “unfriendly step.” A Kremlin-affiliated Russian milblogger had previously criticized Karapetyan for this visit.
Kremlin officials criticized Germany and Chancellor Olaf Scholz for supporting Ukraine and warning of future conflict between the West and NATO. Kremlin Spokesperson Dmitry Peskov claimed Germany has lacked sovereignty since World War II and tries to balance pleasing the US, NATO, and the EU. Security Council Deputy Chairperson Dmitry Medvedev also criticized Scholz for his support of Ukraine.
Situation On The Land, Sea, and Air in Ukraine
The Biden Administration’s policy change allows Ukraine to strike some Russian military targets within a limited area, reducing Russia’s ground sanctuary by up to 16 percent. However, 84 percent of Russian territory remains protected. This US policy has created a large sanctuary that Russia exploits for military operations. Ukrainian forces are only permitted limited strikes, mainly for counterbattery fire near Kharkiv, and are restricted from hitting deeper targets in Russia.
A Ukrainian aircraft reportedly struck a Russian military target in Belgorod Oblast. Sky News reported that a Ukrainian source confirmed the strike on a Russian command post, marking the first use of a Ukrainian manned fixed-wing aircraft in Russia. Footage showed a fire near Tsentralnoye, Rakityansky Raion, and Belgorod Governor Vyacheslav Gladkov confirmed a fire at a non-residential building, claiming Russian air defenses downed several targets. Russian opposition outlet Astra reported the strike hit an ammunition depot.
Ukraine-based organization Frontelligence Insight reported a small number of Russian units arriving near Sumy and Chernihiv oblasts. They assessed that these troops are unlikely to achieve significant results if they launch a ground attack into Ukraine and would likely make fewer territorial gains than Russian forces in northern Kharkiv Oblast.
Ukrainian forces likely struck a Russian Su-57 fighter at Aktyubinsk Airfield between June 7 and 8, as shown by satellite images. The strike caused burn marks, but the extent of damage to the aircraft is unclear. The Su-57, used to launch cruise missiles, is rare in the Russian fleet, with only six operational and another six being built. Ukrainian intelligence suggests two Su-57s might have been at the airfield during the strike. Russian bloggers criticized the lack of protective hangars for the aircraft, which cost about $35 million each.
Ukrainian forces may have struck a Russian ship in Yeysk, Krasnodar Krai, on the night of June 8-9. A Ukrainian military source reported hitting a Ropucha-class landing ship, recently moved from the Black Sea to the Sea of Azov. This is the fifth such ship rendered unserviceable by Ukrainian strikes. Satellite imagery suggests the target might have been a Vasily Bykov-class patrol ship, with evidence of an oil slick in the area. Ukrainian officials have not confirmed the strike, and the impact on Russian naval operations remains unverified.
Kharkiv Front – Initiative Russia
Ukrainian forces reportedly counterattacked north and northeast of Kharkiv City, as Russian offensive operations continued in the area. Russian sources claimed that Ukrainian forces attempted counterattacks near Hlyboke and were preparing for counterattacks in Vovchansk. They also reported that Russian forces seized positions near Lyptsi and launched an assault in Vovchansk. Ukrainian President Zelensky stated that Russian offensives in northern Kharkiv Oblast have failed and that Ukrainian forces are reinforcing their positions. US National Security Advisor Jake Sullivan noted that Russian forces have not made significant progress in the region.
Luhansk Front – Initiative Russia
Russian forces likely seized Ivanivka, southeast of Kupyansk, amid ongoing offensives along the Kupyansk-Svatove-Kreminna line. Geolocated footage shows Russian advancements north of Ivanivka, suggesting the settlement was captured within the past week. Reports indicate Russian forces also advanced south of Vilshana, southwest of Ploshchanka, and near Novoselivske. Russian forces reportedly advanced west of Holykove. Additionally, a river crossing over the Oskil River near Kupyansk-Vuzlovyi was destroyed. Russian offensives continued in various areas near Kupyansk, Kreminna, and the Serebryanske forest.
Donetsk Front – Initiative Russia
Siversk
Russian forces recently advanced south of Siversk, engaging in costly operations. Geolocated footage from June 8 shows marginal advances southeast of Rozdolivka, confirmed by Russian sources. Russian milbloggers reported casualties from frontal assaults near Bilohorivka due to Ukrainian artillery and drone attacks. Russian assaults continued southeast of Siversk near Vyimka, with Russian forces operating southwest of Siversk towards Svyato-Pokrovske.
Chasiv Yar
Russian forces recently advanced in Kanal Microraion, easternmost Chasiv Yar, and continued operations. Footage shows Russian advances westward to an industrial area in Kanal Microraion. Russian sources claimed control over this area and shared footage of the Russian 98th Airborne Division raising a flag there. Despite these claims, no visual evidence confirms the full capture of the industrial area. Russian forces have been advancing in this area for over two months with heavy artillery and air strikes. Additionally, Russian offensives continued in eastern Chasiv Yar, north near Kalynivka, and southeast near Ivanivske, Andriivka, and Klishchiivka. Ukrainian forces reported repelling a significant Russian mechanized assault in the Bakhmut direction, with small assault groups and occasional armored vehicles involved.
Avdiivka
Russian forces recently advanced west of Avdiivka, with geolocated footage showing progress in fields north and northeast of Umanske. Russian sources claimed further advances west of Umanske and over one kilometer towards Skuchne. They also reported reaching the northern outskirts of Novopokrovske and central Novooleksandrivka, though these claims lack visual confirmation. Russian assaults continued in various areas around Avdiivka, including northwest near Novooleksandrivka and Novoselivka Persha, west near Karlivka and Yasnobrodivka, and southwest near Nevelske. A Ukrainian brigade spokesperson reported that Russian forces are primarily conducting infantry assaults, with significant manpower and artillery advantages, including 400-500 artillery shells fired per night and aviation support before attacks.
Southwest of Donetsk City
Russian forces recently advanced west of Donetsk City, continuing their offensive operations. Geolocated footage shows Ukrainian forces repelling a Russian mechanized assault in southern Krasnohorivka, but Russian forces have seized some buildings in western Krasnohorivka. Fighting continues in Krasnohorivka, near Heorhiivka to the west, and near Paraskoviivka and Kostyantynivka to the southwest. Russian forces reportedly advanced 1.5 kilometers towards Vuhledar and seized a section of the Vuhledar-Kostyantynivka highway.
Zaporizhia Front – Initiative Russia
Zaporizhia-Donetsk Border Area
Russian forces continued offensive operations near the Donetsk-Zaporizhia border, targeting areas around Staromayorske, Urozhaine, and Zavitne Bazhannya, south of Velyka Novosilka.
Zaporizhia Line
Positional engagements continued in western Zaporizhia Oblast, with no confirmed changes to the frontline. Fighting occurred near Robotyne, Verbove, and Mala Tokmachka. A Russian source claimed that Russian forces are struggling in northern Robotyne due to Ukrainian artillery and drone strikes.
Kherson (Dnipro River) Front – Initiative None
Positional engagements continued in east bank Kherson Oblast near Krynky and in the Dnipro River Delta. Some Russian sources claimed Ukrainian forces withdrew from Krynky, while others reported they still maintain a presence there.
Ukraine News
Ukrainian officials reported that Russian forces struck Kharkiv City with a KAB guided glide bomb, damaging residential buildings. This was the first glide bomb strike on Kharkiv City since June 1, according to City Council Deputy Bohdan Tkachuk.
Russia News
The Kremlin is extending its crackdown on senior defense officials to include civilian regional administration officials. Recently, Russian authorities arrested several officials, including Tyumen Oblast Deputy Governor Vyacheslav Vakhrin and Krasnodar Krai Deputy Governor Sergei Vlasov, on fraud and bribery charges. This follows the detention of at least five senior defense officials since April 2024. The campaign, framed as anti-corruption, might be used to remove numerous officials who lost Putin’s trust. Proposals in Kaliningrad Oblast suggest using foreign agent designations to justify dismissals. This effort appears aimed at rebalancing power among regional leaders.
Russian Mobilization and Defense Industrial Base
Russian officials continue coercing migrants into military service. Bloomberg reported that Ukrainian and European officials believe thousands of migrants and foreign students have been forced to fight for Russia, especially in northern Kharkiv Oblast. European officials noted that Russia is threatening to deny visa extensions for African students and workers unless they join the military. These migrants often suffer high losses due to being used in dangerous operations. A Ukrainian official reported an increase in foreign POWs from Nepal and African countries. There are currently 35,000 to 37,000 African students in Russia.
Russian Deputy Head of the Ministry of Industry and Trade, Viktor Yevtukhov, claimed that the Russian Navy will receive 50 new ships of various types in 2024. These will include small missile ships and support vessels, with a focus on producing frigates and corvettes capable of operating in distant naval areas. Since Summer 2023, Ukrainian forces have successfully targeted Russia’s Black Sea Fleet, resulting in significant losses, including large amphibious landing ships, cruise missile carriers, and a Kilo-class submarine. Replacing these high-end capabilities will be challenging for Russia.
Russian regional administrations are continuing to support the Kremlin’s mobilization efforts by involving private entities to train young men. Radio Free Europe/Radio Liberty reported that Perm Krai’s “Avangard” Military-Patriotic Education Center is offering contracts totaling 12 million rubles ($134,184) for providing food, accommodations, and basic military training for recruits in 2025. These contracts aim to help young men, likely reservists or military program students, gain practical military skills. The training will include five-day courses for 90 to 120 recruits, led by four to five instructors. The quality of training varies across different private entities.
Russian opposition outlet Mobilization News shared a video from relatives of mobilized soldiers from Bashkortostan. The relatives claimed that Russian commanders are ordering wounded and untreated soldiers to conduct assaults. They also alleged that mobilized personnel from military unit 29601 are being detained for unspecified offenses and then sent to different operational areas in Ukraine for assaults.
Russian Narrative and Propaganda
On June 8, Voice of America’s Bosnian Service and investigative group Detektor reported that over 65 pro-Russian Telegram channels are spreading propaganda justifying Russia’s invasion of Ukraine in the Western Balkans and attempting to recruit Serbian, Bosnian, and Herzegovinian citizens into Russian volunteer units. These channels, with 50,000 to 100,000 subscribers, push a coordinated pro-Russian and anti-Western narrative and are connected with popular Russian milbloggers and media outlets like the Kremlin-affiliated Rybar channel. This activity coincides with Russian President Vladimir Putin’s recent meeting with Milorad Dodik, President of Republika Srpska, suggesting ongoing Kremlin efforts to destabilize the region.
The Kremlin continued efforts to influence Western decision-making and reduce support for Ukraine. Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov claimed in a state TV interview that the West is escalating the conflict by allowing Ukraine to strike Russian military targets with Western weapons. He asserted that the West is gradually increasing its war against Russia and that Russia will decide how to respond to these actions.
Source Material
Institute for the Study of War – understandingwar.org