Summary of the Day:
Russian President Vladimir Putin has explicitly rejected a proposal reportedly considered by Trump’s team that would have delayed Ukraine’s NATO membership for at least a decade in exchange for ending the war. This rejection was accompanied by Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov’s continued insistence that the current Ukrainian government is illegitimate and cannot serve as a legitimate negotiating partner for Russia.
Russian forces have achieved a significant tactical victory with the seizure of Kurakhove following two months of intensified offensive operations. The 51st CAA has been identified as the main force participating in this operation, though Russian forces may face challenges advancing further west along the H-15 Kurakhove-Pokrovske highway, particularly if Ukrainian forces maintain defensive positions at the Kurakhivska TPP. Ukrainian forces have recorded advances near Toretsk, while Russian forces have made gains near Kupyansk, Toretsk, Pokrovsk, and Velyka Novosilka.
Russian forces conducted a large series of missile and drone strikes targeting Ukrainian energy infrastructure on the night of December 24-25, causing serious damage to thermal power plants. In response, Ukrainian forces successfully struck a Russian command post in Kursk Oblast on December 25, followed by strikes on a Russian ammunition depot in Rostov Oblast and defense industrial base facilities in both Rostov and Tambov oblasts on December 25-26.
A serious incident occurred when a Russian air defense system reportedly shot down an Azerbaijan Airlines Embraer 190 passenger aircraft over the Republic of Chechnya on December 25. According to a Russian insider source affiliated with law enforcement, the aircraft was struck at an altitude of 2,400 meters approximately 18 kilometers northwest of the Grozny airport over Naursky Raion, before crashing in Aktau, Kazakhstan.
In terms of international support, Japan has announced it will provide Ukraine with $3 billion in non-lethal assistance, with the funding derived entirely from frozen Russian assets.
Russian military bloggers have acknowledged that the Russian Ministry of Defense is attempting to monopolize crowdfunding efforts for the Russian military. This centralization effort comes amid ongoing fallout from the deaths of two Russian drone operators in September 2024.
Picture of the Day:
First responders at the site of a Russian attack on Christmas Day. (State Emergency Service)
Beyond Ukraine – The March Towards World War
An Azerbaijan Airlines passenger plane carrying 67 people crashed near Aktau, Kazakhstan on December 25, resulting in 32-38 survivors (reports vary) from Azerbaijan, Russia, Kazakhstan, and Kyrgyzstan. While Russia’s Federal Air Transport Agency claims a bird strike caused the crash, initial investigation results from Azerbaijani sources and Reuters suggest a Russian Pantsir-S air defense system shot down the plane near Chechnya, with independent Russian media citing evidence of missile impact on the tail section. The incident occurred the same morning Chechnya reportedly faced drone attacks.
According to a Russian law enforcement source, the missile likely struck the aircraft at 2,400 meters altitude, approximately 18 kilometers northwest of Grozny airport over Naursky Raion, where several Russian military bases with recently placed Pantsir systems are located. An alleged transcript indicates the crew reported GPS and communication failures during landing attempts at Grozny, followed by loss of control and hydraulic failure after electronic warfare jamming disrupted communications. Sources claim Russian authorities denied the pilot’s emergency landing requests at Russian airports, instead directing the damaged plane to fly across the Caspian Sea to Aktau despite distress calls. While survivors reported hearing an explosion after failed landing attempts in Grozny, the recovered black box is expected to provide crucial details about the incident. Kazakh officials and the Kremlin have not confirmed these preliminary findings.
Belarusian President Alexander Lukashenko announced that Russia will deploy approximately 10 Oreshnik ballistic missile systems to Belarus, with openness to accepting more. This announcement follows a new Union State security treaty between Russia and Belarus. While Lukashenko requested control over targeting decisions for missiles launched from Belarusian territory, this military expansion represents a significant escalation in Russia’s influence over Belarus, potentially threatening the balance of power in Eastern Europe and raising concerns about Belarus’s sovereignty and regional security.
Iranian state media reported that a Belarusian military delegation visited Iran’s Marine Training Center in Manjil to observe training programs. This military collaboration between Iran and Belarus, a close Russian ally, could further destabilize regional security dynamics and potentially impact international peace efforts.
A Russian missile violated Moldovan airspace during a massive Christmas Day attack on Ukraine, where Russia launched over 70 missiles and 100 drones at energy infrastructure. This violation of international airspace heightens tensions between NATO and Russia, as neighboring countries respond to protect their sovereignty. Poland scrambled fighter jets, and while Romania investigated similar reports, they did not confirm an airspace violation. The incident demonstrates the expanding regional impact of Russia’s war in Ukraine, raising concerns about potential escalation and threats to neighboring NATO countries. The attack resulted in one death and six injuries in Ukraine, while Moldova’s President Maia Sandu condemned the airspace violation as a clear breach of international law.
Russia announced plans to bypass Ukraine for European gas deliveries after Ukraine’s President Zelensky declared an end to Russian gas transit through Ukrainian territory on December 31. This development threatens to reshape European energy security and escalate tensions between Russia and the West. While EU members Slovakia, Hungary, Italy, and Austria have expressed concerns about supply disruption, Russia claims it can deliver gas through alternative routes, including the TurkStream pipeline via Turkey and LNG shipments. This situation adds another layer of complexity to the ongoing conflict and could potentially impact global energy markets and international relations, particularly as Europe continues to reduce its dependence on Russian energy resources.
The Path to Peace
Russian President Vladimir Putin dismissed a proposal reportedly from Donald Trump’s team to end the Ukraine war by delaying Ukraine’s NATO membership for 10-20 years. Putin stated the timing of Ukraine’s NATO membership was irrelevant, maintaining his original demands: Ukraine must remain permanently neutral, accept military restrictions, and remove its current government.
Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov claimed that Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky’s government is illegitimate and called for new elections in Ukraine. This statement aligns with the Kremlin’s continued misrepresentation of Ukrainian law to undermine Ukraine’s sovereignty and avoid negotiations, while promoting Russia’s demand for regime change in Kyiv.
Situation On The Land, Sea, and Air in Ukraine
On December 23, a Ukrainian drone struck the Russian ship Fedor Uryupin near the village of Chornomorske in occupied Crimea. The vessel, which Russia seized from Ukraine in 2014, sustained damage above the waterline but remained afloat. While flying a Russian flag, the ship is officially owned by Ukraine’s Chornomornaftogaz company.
Ukrainian Operations in the Russian Federation – Initiative Russia
Fighting continued in Ukraine’s Kursk Oblast on December 25-26, with clashes reported near several settlements including Leonidovo, Cherkasskaya Konopelka, Guyevo, and Kurilovka. While Ukrainian forces launched counterattacks in some areas including Guyevo and Leonidovo, no significant territorial changes were confirmed. Russian forces have reportedly improved their position by deploying better trained and supplied units, including elements of several airborne divisions and naval infantry brigades.
Ukrainian military intelligence reported that North Korean forces are taking casualties near Novoivanovka in Kursk Oblast. They face logistical challenges, including a lack of drinking water, and a recent Ukrainian strike reportedly damaged their key communications facility.
On December 25, Ukrainian forces successfully used HIMARS to strike a Russian command post in Lgov, Kursk Oblast, killing the deputy commander and staff officers of the 810th Naval Infantry Brigade, which had been operating in the area reportedly training North Korean personnel and had previously admitted to using chemical weapons in Ukraine in December 2023. The post was located in an abandoned civilian building, with Russian officials claiming the attack killed four civilians, injured five others, and damaged local infrastructure. The area has been contested since August, with Ukraine initially capturing multiple settlements but later losing about 40% of these gains, while Russia has deployed over 10,000 North Korean troops to the region, with Ukrainian President Zelensky stating that North Korean casualties have exceeded 3,000.
On December 25-26, Ukrainian forces conducted multiple strikes inside Russia, destroying an ammunition depot at the Kadamovsky military training ground near Novocherkassk in Rostov Oblast that was supplying Russian forces near Kramatorsk, and striking a defense facility in Kamyansk-Shakhtinsky, Rostov Oblast that produces rocket fuel, while reportedly damaging the “Progres” Plant in Michurinsk and a Transnefteprodukt facility in Novonikolskoye, both in Tambov Oblast. Additional strikes targeted Millerovo’s military airbase and the Novoshakhtinsk oil refinery, according to Ukraine’s Security Service (SBU), though while these claims could not be independently verified, Russian officials confirmed recent attacks in the region.
Kharkiv Front – Initiative Russia
Russian forces attacked in the Kharkiv area on December 25-26, targeting areas near Starytsya, Derhachi, Zolochiv, Vysoka Yaruha, Lyptsi, and Vovchansk. While Russian sources claimed advances near several settlements including Starytsya, no territorial gains were confirmed. Ukrainian forces reportedly maintain control of strategic heights near Kozacha Lopan and launched a counterattack from Lyptsi toward Hlyboke.
Luhansk Front – Initiative Russia
Russian forces made confirmed advances near Kupyansk on December 25-26, capturing Lozova and Berestove, while also advancing in southern Zahryzove and eastern Novoyehorivka. Russian forces conducted operations across multiple locations, including Kindrashivka, Dvorichna, Vilshana, Petropavlivka, and several other settlements along the Kupyansk-Svatove-Kreminna line.
Donetsk Front – Initiative Russia
Siversk
Russian forces launched attacks near Bilohorivka, northeast of Siversk, from December 24-26, but failed to make verified progress. While Ukrainian drone operators successfully repelled a Russian infantry assault, and Russian sources claim advances near Vyimka and toward Siversk, these claims remain unconfirmed.
Chasiv Yar
Russian forces attacked around Chasiv Yar and nearby settlements of Stupochky, Bila Hora, and Predtechyne from December 24-26, but made no confirmed advances. Ukrainian officials report that Russia is building up reserves near Chasiv Yar and aims to capture its Refractory Plant, viewing the town as strategically important due to its elevated position.
Toretsk
Ukrainian forces recaptured positions along Papanina Street in northern Toretsk, while Russian forces continued attacks in and around Toretsk from December 24-26, claiming advances near the Toretsk Mine and central market, with operations targeting nearby settlements of Dachne, Dyliivka, Druzhba, and Shcherbynivka. Military spokesperson Anastasia Bobovnikova reported house-to-house combat in Toretsk with control of individual buildings frequently changing hands, as Russian forces intensified attacks in Donetsk Oblast, particularly around Toretsk and Chasiv Yar, introducing new military equipment including armored vehicles, motorcycles, and buggies, though tanks and armored vehicles have limited effectiveness in these urban areas, and Ukrainian officials anticipate additional Russian offensives in Kherson and Zaporizhzhia oblasts.
Pokrovsk
Russian forces made confirmed advances near Pokrovsk, particularly west of Pushkine and in central Novyi Trud. While Russian sources claim multiple advances around Novovasylivka, Uspenivka, and other nearby settlements, many of these claims remain unverified. Russian forces conducted operations in numerous locations around Pokrovsk, including Zelene Pole, Vozdvyzhenka, Myrolyubivka, and several other settlements. A Ukrainian servicemember reported that Russian forces are advancing west of Pokrovsk in small infantry groups, aiming to reach the M-30 Pokrovsk-Pavlohrad highway.
Kurakhove
Russian sources claim advances northwest of Kurakhove along the Stari Terny-Sontsivka-Zorya line and the alleged capture of Sontsivka, though these claims remain unverified. Ukrainian officials report that Russian forces are using thermal imaging-disrupting cloaks in this area. Russian forces continued attacks near Kurakhove and surrounding areas including Yasenove, Petropavlivka, Slovyanka, Shevchenko, Andriivka, Dachne, and Dalne from December 24-26.
Russian forces have likely captured the town of Kurakhove after two months of offensive operations, according to footage from December 24-25. Russian units have advanced to the town’s administrative boundaries and seized areas south of Kurakhove and north of Dalne. Ukrainian forces have confirmed losing positions in the Kurakhove area.
Russian forces took over two months to capture Kurakhove, a settlement of just 7.3 square kilometers. The offensive began in mid-October 2024, with Russia committing around 35,000-36,000 troops to the operation. During this campaign to take the small settlement, Russian forces likely suffered heavy casualties in both personnel and armored vehicles due to numerous armored assaults in and around Kurakhove.
Russian forces may face challenges advancing west of Kurakhove along the H-15 highway, where Ukrainian forces hold positions at the Kurakhivska Thermal Power Plant (TPP). To bypass this obstacle, Russian forces might attempt alternate routes: advancing through fields near Dalne toward Ulakly, moving south from Stari Terny to Dachne, or pushing north from Zelenivka to Ulakly to threaten Ukrainian supply lines to the TPP.
The Russian 51st Combined Arms Army (CAA), primarily its 5th and 110th motorized rifle brigades, has led the capture of Kurakhove. The 150th Motorized Rifle Division is also operating in the area and may oversee future operations west of the settlement. Russian authorities are working to formally integrate former Donetsk People’s Republic units into the Russian military and will likely praise these forces for capturing Kurakhove.
Andriivka
Russian forces continued attacks north and northwest of Vuhledar from December 24-26 without confirmed advances. While the Russian Ministry of Defense claimed to have captured Hihant on December 26, this settlement was actually taken around December 20. Russian sources claim advances near the Yantarne-Dachne road and control of Sukhi Yaly and Zelenivka settlements. Operations continued near Uspenivka, Kostiantynopolske, Yantarne, Kostiantynopil, and Rozlyv.
Velyka Novosilka
Russian forces made a confirmed advance west of Neskuchne, near Velyka Novosilka, while claims of advances near Rivnopil remain unverified. Russian forces conducted attacks around Velyka Novosilka and nearby settlements including Rozdolne, Novyi Komar, Novosilka, Storozheve, and Blahodatne from December 24-26.
Zaporizhia Front – Initiative Russia
Russian forces attempted attacks in western Zaporizhia Oblast on December 25-26 near the settlements of Novodanylivka, Kamyanske, Robotyne, and Novoandriivka, but made no confirmed advances. While Russian military bloggers claimed gains near Novodanylivka and Kamyanske, these claims remain unverified.
Kherson (Dnipro River) Front – Initiative Russia
Russian forces attempted operations along the Dnipro River and its delta between December 24-26, with no confirmed advances. Colonel Vladyslav Voloshyn reported that Russian forces are conducting reconnaissance missions, using small boats with teams of 5-7 soldiers attempting to land on the western bank and Kozatskyi Island near Kherson City. Kherson Oblast Military Head Oleksandr Prokudin noted increased Russian activity in the area but stated Ukrainian forces are monitoring and preventing Russian attempts to establish positions.
Ukraine News
Russia launched a massive aerial assault against Ukraine on December 24-25, firing 78 missiles (including North Korean KN-23 ballistic missiles and various cruise missiles) and 106 Shahed drones at multiple cities, with Ukraine’s air defense intercepting 55 cruise missiles and 54 drones, while Russia reports shooting down 59 Ukrainian drones overnight. The northeastern city of Kharkiv was heavily targeted by ballistic missiles with at least six people injured in seven Russian attacks, while in Kherson one person was killed and three injured, and in Dnipropetrovsk region, where temperatures are near freezing, strikes killed two people and wounded 17 others, with ongoing fighting near Kupiansk leading to the evacuation of 46 residents.
The attacks, which began at 5:30 am on December 25, marked the 13th massive strike on Ukraine’s energy infrastructure since Russia’s invasion began, with DTEK energy company reporting their facilities alone hit over 200 times and severe damage to thermal power plants across multiple regions including Kharkiv, Kyiv, Dnipropetrovsk, Poltava, Zhytomyr, Ivano-Frankivsk, Zaporizhia, and Vinnytsia, causing emergency blackouts. President Zelensky stated Russia’s goal is to cause a complete blackout in Ukraine, with the assault coming as Ukraine celebrated Christmas on December 25 for the second year after moving the date from January 7 as a break from Russian traditions, while Moscow recently claimed to have captured over 190 settlements this year as Ukraine faces ammunition shortages and mounting pressure on its frontlines.
On the night of December 25-26, Russia launched 31 drones against Ukraine from Oryol and Rostov oblasts. Ukrainian forces intercepted 20 drones over Kharkiv, Kyiv, Chernihiv, and Dnipropetrovsk regions, while 11 decoy drones were neutralized by electronic warfare. A “Molniya” drone struck an apartment building in Kharkiv City, as reported by Mayor Ihor Terekhov.
President Zelensky announced plans to pursue peace in 2025 during a Christmas Eve call with Ecumenical Patriarch Bartholomew and delivered an address reflecting on Ukraine’s third wartime Christmas, emphasizing the nation’s enduring faith and unity despite ongoing challenges, while Ukrainians celebrated Christmas on December 25 instead of January 7 for the second year, marking a shift away from Russian traditions. The war’s toll continues to impact holiday celebrations, with many families visiting graves of fallen soldiers in Lviv’s Lychakiv cemetery, and Russian forces are advancing on Pokrovsk, the birthplace of “Shchedryk” (known globally as “Carol of the Bells”), composed by Mykola Leontovych and now a symbol of Ukraine’s cultural resilience, as Zelensky revealed 43,000 Ukrainian soldiers have died in the conflict (though independent estimates suggest higher casualties), and his message of unity was followed by a massive Russian aerial attack on Christmas Day, with Kharkiv facing particularly severe missile strikes.
Ukrainian poet and writer Oleksii Bezpaltsev, 34, was killed during combat operations in Kharkiv Oblast. Prior to his death, he had served on the Pokrovsk front and published two short story collections. He is among at least 102 Ukrainian cultural figures who have died since Russia’s invasion began.
Ukraine Mobilization and Defense Industrial Base
Former Odesa Oblast military enlistment chief Yevhen Borysov was rearrested in Kyiv on December 25 after posting bail of 39 million hryvnia ($931,652). Initially charged in July 2023 with illicit enrichment and military service violations, he now faces additional charges of forging combat injury documents for compensation. The investigation has led to the seizure of his family’s Spanish properties in Marbella, including a house worth 4 million euros and an office valued at 510,000 euros, after authorities determined he planned to flee abroad following his release.
Ukraine’s military has approved the new Shchedryk drone for combat operations. This domestically produced unmanned aerial vehicle features silent electric motors and strong electronic warfare resistance. It can operate in various weather conditions and at altitudes beyond most Russian air defense systems. Ukraine has delivered over 200,000 domestically-made drones to its forces this month.
Ukraine’s Allies
Japan announced it will provide Ukraine with $3 billion in non-lethal aid funded entirely from frozen Russian assets following a December 25 phone call between President Volodymyr Zelensky and Japanese Prime Minister Shigeru Ishiba, with the package including energy equipment and shelter construction assistance as part of the G7’s broader initiative to use profits from frozen Russian assets to provide Ukraine with $50 billion in support through 2025. Zelensky thanked Japan for its total aid of $12 billion and discussed recent Russian attacks on Ukraine’s energy infrastructure during Christmas, following Ukraine’s receipt of $1 billion in joint aid from Japan and the UK through the World Bank just a day earlier, while during a November meeting in Kyiv, Japanese Foreign Minister Takeshi Iwaya expressed concerns about North Korean troops in Russia’s Kursk Oblast and reaffirmed Japan’s commitment to supporting Ukraine.
Keith Kellogg, President-elect Trump’s nominee for Ukraine peace envoy, condemned the Christmas Day attacks on social media, calling them wrong and emphasizing that Christmas should be a time of peace. Kellogg, a former National Security Council official, is scheduled to visit Kyiv before Trump’s January inauguration as part of efforts to negotiate peace in the region.
Life in Russian Occupied Ukraine
Russia has moved approximately one million Russian nationals and residents from other occupied Ukrainian territories to occupied Crimea since 2014, according to Ukrainian Presidential Representative for Crimea Olha Kuryshko. This relocation has changed 35 percent of Crimea’s population demographics under Russian occupation.
Russian War Losses (Today/Total)
Troops +1540
780860 |
Tanks +2
9630 |
Artillery +24
21357 |
Arm. Veh. +10
19933 |
Aircraft 
369 |
Heli
329 |
Ships
28 |
Russia Mobilization and Defense Industrial Base
The Russian Ministry of Defense is working to control military crowdfunding efforts following controversy over the September 2024 deaths of two drone operators, Junior Sergeant Dmitry Lysakovsky and Lieutenant Colonel Sergey Gritsai. A Russian military blogger supported the ministry’s move to formalize crowdfunding but highlighted ongoing concerns about commanders misusing donated equipment, including possible theft of equipment after the operators’ deaths.
Russian Senator Dmitry Rogozin, the former head of the Russian space agency Roscosmos, announced that the BARS-Sarmat Detachment has joined the Russian Airborne Forces (VDV). According to Rogozin, their first drone operators were deployed to the front line with VDV forces on December 21.
Russian authorities are placing Ukraine war veterans in leadership roles within youth military-political organizations, according to a Russian insider source. This move serves two purposes: to advance the Kremlin’s efforts to militarize and indoctrinate young people in Russia and occupied Ukraine with Russian narratives, and to evaluate veterans’ leadership abilities before promoting them to higher government positions. The source indicated that these veterans are forming a new elite class in Russian society.
Alexei Rogozin, son of Dmitry Rogozin, predicted that drone swarm systems will be the key technological advancement in Ukraine during 2025. When he questioned which side would introduce this technology first, a Russian military blogger expressed doubt about Russia’s ability to compete in such innovations.
Source Material
Institute for the Study of War – understandingwar.org
The Kyiv Independent – kyivindependent.com
Kyiv Post – kyivpost.com