Summary of the Day:
Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky unveiled a five-part Victory Plan to the Verkhovna Rada, aiming to end the war with Russia by 2025. The plan includes joining NATO, securing Western support, and offering experienced Ukrainian troops to defend NATO’s eastern flank post-war. Meanwhile, Russian President Vladimir Putin’s strategy seeks to prolong the conflict, betting that Russian forces can outlast Western support and Ukrainian resistance through attrition.
Former Russian officer Igor Girkin, currently imprisoned, criticized the Kremlin’s war strategy, highlighting Russia’s ongoing challenges in force generation and defense industrial capacity. Girkin assessed that Russia’s Summer-Fall 2024 offensive campaign has fallen short of its goals, noting limited progress in various regions including Kharkiv and Donetsk.
The United States announced a new $425 million military aid package for Ukraine, including air defense systems, armored vehicles, and various munitions. Concurrently, South Korean authorities are closely monitoring reports of potential North Korean troop involvement in Russia’s war effort, though NATO and US officials remain skeptical about large-scale North Korean combat participation.
Despite assessments of overall shortcomings, Russian forces have recently advanced in northern Kharkiv Oblast, near Kreminna, Siversk, and Toretsk, continuing intense offensive operations in several directions across Ukraine.
Picture of the Day:
A man looks at the sky while hearing artillery explosions as he cleans debris next to a damaged house following a recent air attack in a village outside of Kostyantynivka, in the eastern Donetsk Oblast. (Photo by Roman Pilipey / AFP via Getty Images)
Beyond Ukraine – The March Towards World War
Russian and Chinese naval forces conducted a joint rescue exercise in the East China Sea. Ships from both nations, including Russian destroyers Admiral Panteleyev and Admiral Tributs, and Chinese vessels Xining, Wuxi, Linyi, and Taihu, participated. These ships are now patrolling the Asia-Pacific region together. This exercise highlights growing Russia-China military cooperation and may provide China insights for potential future actions regarding Taiwan.
Missile fragments were discovered near Lencauti, a Moldovan village close to the Ukrainian border. This isn’t the first such incident in Moldova, with Shahed drone debris found in February 2024. President Maia Sandu emphasized the threat Russia’s war poses to the region. Similar occurrences in Romania in 2023 led to increased border security measures there.
The Path to Peace
Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky presented a five-part Victory Plan to the Verkhovna Rada, aiming to end the war with Russia by 2025. The plan encompasses joining NATO, securing Western support, establishing strategic deterrence, boosting economic growth, and offering experienced Ukrainian troops to defend NATO’s eastern flank post-war. Key proposals involve bringing the war to Russian territory, lifting restrictions on long-range strikes, and increasing military aid. Zelensky emphasized Ukraine’s role in European security, the potential for Ukraine’s natural resources to boost economic growth and warned of potential Russian aggression if Ukraine’s sovereignty isn’t supported. He noted the global implications if Putin succeeds, highlighting support for Russia from North Korea, Iran, and China. The strategy includes three classified addenda shared with international partners and will be presented to the European Council on October 17.
German Chancellor Olaf Scholz expressed willingness to talk with Russian President Vladimir Putin about a “just peace” in Ukraine if asked but emphasized that no decisions would be made without input from Ukraine and Western allies. This comes amid reports of Scholz’s increased openness to dialogue, despite no direct contact between the leaders since December 2022. However, conflicting statements from German Foreign Minister Annalena Baerbock and Kremlin spokesperson Dmitry Peskov indicate uncertainty about the likelihood of such talks occurring.
Russian President Vladimir Putin’s strategy in Ukraine aims to prolong the war, betting that Russian forces can outlast Western support and Ukrainian resistance through attrition. Putin has committed to a year-long offensive along the eastern and northeastern frontline to exhaust Ukrainian forces and prevent counteroffensives. The Russian military is currently addressing a Ukrainian incursion in Kursk Oblast while maintaining pressure in eastern Ukraine, including an offensive to seize Pokrovsk in western Donetsk Oblast. However, Russia’s sustained offensive operations may significantly deplete its resources, potentially allowing Ukraine to contest or seize initiative in some areas.
Situation On The Land, Sea, and Air in Ukraine
Russia faces long-term challenges in maintaining its offensive strategy in Ukraine. The country is struggling with force generation, as evidenced by increasing financial incentives for military contracts and concerns about diminishing recruitment results. Putin is reluctant to initiate another partial mobilization despite these constraints. Additionally, Russia is experiencing significant equipment losses, particularly in armored vehicles, which its military-industrial complex may struggle to replace. While Russia is refurbishing Soviet-era equipment and seeking support from North Korea, Iran, and China, these efforts may not fully meet its material needs in Ukraine. Putin’s reluctance to fully mobilize the economy further complicates Russia’s ability to sustain its war effort.
Igor Girkin, an imprisoned Russian nationalist and former officer, has criticized the Kremlin’s war strategy in Ukraine. In letters written between September 28 and October 12, Girkin argued that Russia faces significant challenges in 2024 and 2025 due to unaddressed issues in force generation and defense industrial capacity. He claims the Kremlin has exaggerated its military capabilities and depleted weapon reserves and trained personnel. Girkin suggests that Russia’s lack of long-term planning has created a reactive approach to critical problems, and warns that the war is now affecting the Russian economy as it draws from the labor force. He notably points out that Russia has missed opportunities to address these issues during periods of delayed Western aid to Ukraine.
Igor Girkin, a former Russian officer, has assessed that Russia’s Summer-Fall 2024 offensive in Ukraine has fallen short of its goals. He noted limited progress north of Kharkiv City, unsuccessful attempts to break through in Donetsk Oblast, and the diversion of resources to counter a Ukrainian incursion in Kursk Oblast. Girkin criticized the capture of Vuhledar in western Donetsk as ineffective, as Ukrainian forces were able to retreat and consolidate their positions. In contrast, he viewed Ukraine’s defensive operation as successful, citing minimal territorial losses, effective counterattacks, preserved reserves, and maintained morale.
South Korean authorities are monitoring reports that North Korean troops may be supporting Russia’s war effort in Ukraine. Ukrainian sources claim over 10,000 North Korean infantry soldiers are training in Russia’s Far East for potential deployment near Ukraine’s border, which would allow Russia to reassign its troops elsewhere. There are reports of a 3,000-person North Korean “battalion” being formed within Russia for defensive operations in Kursk Oblast, potentially deploying near Sudzha and Kursk. This comes as Russia faces manpower shortages due to heavy casualties. NATO and US officials remain skeptical about large-scale North Korean troop involvement in combat, though they acknowledge the possible presence of North Korean engineers and observers in occupied Ukraine and Russia, potentially assisting with ballistic missiles. Putin recently submitted a draft law to ratify a strategic partnership with North Korea, which includes provisions for mutual military assistance.
Ukraine’s Defense Minister Rustem Umerov announced a plan to recover explosives from unexploded munitions in conflict zones. The government aims to salvage up to 20% of failed munitions, using mobile processing equipment to extract materials for recycling into new ammunition. While this could potentially address shortages in Ukraine’s defense industry, experts raise concerns about the safety and practicality of the process. Challenges include the instability of unexploded ordnance, difficulties in accessing and extracting explosives, and ensuring the quality of recovered materials. The plan’s effectiveness and implementation details remain to be seen, with safety being a primary concern in handling these dangerous materials.
Ukrainian Operations in the Russian Federation – Initiative Russia
Poor weather is hampering military operations for both Russian and Ukrainian forces in Kursk Oblast. A Ukrainian serviceman reports Russian attacks using small infantry groups and amphibious vehicles, while communication issues among Ukrainian units may be aiding Russian counterattacks. Despite being outnumbered, Ukrainian forces continue to engage. The serviceman doubts imminent Russian assaults on Sudzha due to weather conditions. Both sides acknowledge the impact of rain and mud on their operations, with Russians increasingly relying on artillery. A Russian source claims initial advances on the northwestern flank of the Ukrainian salient in Kursk Oblast have since stalled.
Russian forces advanced on the western side of the Ukrainian salient in Kursk Oblast. They gained ground east of Lyubimovka, in western Zelenyy Shlyakh, and northwest of Kruglenkoye. Fighting continues in Olgovka and Novoivanovka, which are partially under Ukrainian control. Clashes are reported in several areas: southeast of Korenevo (near Tolstyi Lug, Lyubimovka, Zelenyy Shlyakh, Nizhnyi Klin, Malaya Lokhnya, and Novoivanovka), east of Korenevo (near Olgovka), northeast of Sudzha (near Russkoye Porechnoye, Nizhnyaya Parovaya, and Nechayev), south of Sudzha (near Plekhovo), and southeast of Sudzha (near Russkaya Konopelka and Fanaseevka).
Russian and Ukrainian forces engaged in limited fighting in Glushkovsky Raion, west of the main Ukrainian salient in Kursk Oblast, on October 15-16. No confirmed advances were made. Reports suggest ongoing combat near Novyi Put, southwest of Glushkovo, but Russian control of the settlement is unconfirmed. A Russian source claimed that Russian forces captured the “Konstantinovka” Checkpoint on the Kursk-Sumy border.
Kharkiv Front – Initiative Russia
Ukrainian forces reportedly advanced north of Kharkiv City, with Ukraine’s Military Intelligence (GUR) claiming to have cleared a 400-hectare forest area north of Lyptsi. This operation allegedly resulted in the destruction of several Russian units, significant Russian casualties, and the capture of a battalion defense area. GUR states this success sets the stage for further progress in expelling Russian forces from northern Kharkiv Oblast. Russian forces attempted assaults near Vovchansk and Starytsya without confirmed gains. Additionally, Ukrainian forces reportedly repelled a Russian mechanized assault in the Kharkiv direction, destroying three armored vehicles.
Luhansk Front – Initiative Russia
Russian forces advanced northwest of Svatove, particularly near Kruhlyakivka and Kolisnykivka. They continued offensive operations along the Kupyansk-Svatove line. Russian sources claim further advances in eastern and southeastern Kolisnykivka, though unconfirmed. Fighting continues east of Kupyansk near Kucherivka and Petropavlivka, and northwest of Svatove near several settlements including Novoosynove, Hlushkivka, and Pishchane.
Russian forces captured Nevske and most of Makiivka, northwest of Kreminna. Russian forces took Nevske and are advancing towards Novolyubivka and Novosadove. Russian forces also seized Makiivka and established a bridgehead west of the Zherebets River. Russian operations continue near Hrekivka, Terny, Torske, and Zarichne. A Russian source claimed repelling a Ukrainian reconnaissance group near Shyplivka.
Russian forces are preparing to intensify assaults near Kreminna, forming new assault companies and transferring armored vehicles. However, they may lack sufficient reserves for sustained operations. The Russian Western Grouping of Forces has a reserve of 6,000-7,000 personnel in the area. Recent Russian offensives have aimed to reach the Oskil River along the Kupyansk-Svatove-Kreminna line, but limited reserves may constrain the duration of this intensified offensive.
Donetsk Front – Initiative Russia
Siversk
Russian forces made progress near Siversk advancing north of Verkhnokamyanske. Ukrainian forces reportedly repelled a Russian mechanized assault in the area.
Chasiv Yar
Russian forces continued their offensive near Chasiv Yar targeting areas around Kalynivka, Stupochky, and Predtechyne. Despite claims of controlling key supply routes, Russian attacks were reportedly repelled by Ukrainian forces. No confirmed changes to the frontline were reported.
Toretsk
Russian forces advanced near Toretsk gaining ground in eastern Toretsk and western Druzhba. They also attacked near Dachne and Shcherbynivka. Ukrainian officials reported extensive destruction of potential defensive positions in Toretsk by Russian artillery and air strikes.
Pokrovsk
Russian forces continued attacks in the Pokrovsk area claiming to seize Krasnyi Yar and advance near Selydove. Attacks were reported near Promin, Myrolyubivka, Novotroitske, and several other settlements. Russian sources suggest attempts to encircle Selydove. Weather conditions have reportedly slowed fighting in the region. No confirmed Russian advances were observed despite these claims.
West of Donetsk City
Russian forces attacked near Heorhiivka, east of Kurakhove. Ukrainian forces reported repelling multiple Russian assaults, including platoon-sized mechanized attacks. Despite these offensive operations, there were no confirmed Russian advances in the area.
Southwest of Donetsk City
Russian forces continued attacks near Vuhledar with claimed advances near Vodyane and Zolota Nyva. Fighting was reported around Zolota Nyva and Bohoyavlenka. No confirmed Russian advances were reported.
Zaporizhia Front – Initiative Russia
Zaporizhia-Donetsk Border Area
Russian forces launched attacks near Rozdolne, located in the border area between Donetsk and Zaporizhia Oblasts. The area is northeast of Velyka Novosilka. Despite these operations, no confirmed territorial gains were reported for the Russian side.
Zaporizhia Line
Russian forces attacked near Mala Tokmachka in western Zaporizhia Oblast without confirmed advances. A Russian blogger claimed progress in Kamyanske, citing terrain challenges. Rainy weather reportedly flooded Russian trenches and hindered supply deliveries.
Kherson (Dnipro River) Front – Initiative Russia
Russian forces attacked in eastern Kherson Oblast without confirmed advances. A Russian blogger claimed Russian forces repelled a Ukrainian raid on the Kinburn Spit, but this hasn’t been independently verified.
Ukraine News
Russia launched a large-scale overnight attack on Ukraine using drones and missiles, targeting multiple regions including Donetsk, Chernihiv, and Kyiv. Ukrainian forces reportedly intercepted 68 out of 136 Russian Shahed drones launched from Primorsko-Akhtarsk, Kursk, and Orel, while electronic warfare caused 64 drones to miss their targets. Ukrainian forces engaged the drones across 14 oblasts, with all attacks on Kyiv thwarted. An industrial facility in Ternopil Oblast was hit, causing a fire but no casualties.
Russia also launched missiles, including an S-300 strike on Ochakiv in Mykolaiv Oblast, with Russian sources claiming it targeted an armored vehicle plant, though this remains unconfirmed. Kherson city lost all electricity, with neighboring Mykolaiv Oblast also experiencing power outages. Officials cited technical reasons, not linking the blackouts to Russian attacks. However, Ukraine has faced regular power disruptions due to Russian strikes on energy infrastructure, and authorities warn of potential increased attacks on the power grid in the coming months, like previous autumn-winter seasons.
The Security Service of Ukraine (SBU) arrested a high-ranking security official from Ukrenergo, the state energy company, for allegedly supporting Russia’s invasion and leaking information about infrastructure attacks. The suspect, reportedly Oleh Hrybenko, is accused of justifying Russian aggression and questioning Ukraine’s independence. Ukrenergo suspended the employee, emphasizing its intolerance for such views. If found guilty, the suspect could face up to eight years in prison.
Innocent Victims Of War
The casualty count of civilians in the past 24 hours: (Russian War Crimes)
DEATHS: 0 INJURIES: 0
Ukrainian Mobilization and Industrial Defense Base
Ukraine’s Defense Ministry announced that the domestically produced Chaklun drone has been approved for military use. The Chaklun can assist with artillery targeting and is resistant to Russian electronic warfare. It operates in harsh weather conditions and uses Ukrainian-developed control software.
Ukraine’s Allies
NATO Secretary General Mark Rutte announced a Ukraine-NATO Council meeting on October 17, 2024, focusing on the current battlefield situation and Ukraine’s military needs. NATO is progressing on a new command in Wiesbaden to coordinate aid and training for Ukrainian troops. Allies provided 20.9 billion euros in military assistance to Ukraine in early 2024 and are on track to meet the 40-billion-euro commitment. Despite NATO’s continued support, concerns are rising about future Western aid as the U.S. election approaches, with potential changes in policy if Donald Trump wins.
U.S. President Joe Biden announced a $425 million military aid package for Ukraine during a phone call with President Volodymyr Zelensky. This marks the 67th tranche of equipment from US inventories for Ukraine since August 2021. The package includes air defense systems, armored vehicles, and various munitions, specifically NASAMS munitions, RIM-7 missiles, Stinger missiles, HIMARS munitions, artillery rounds, anti-armor systems, and HMMWVs. Zelensky mentioned the inclusion of long-range weapons, though details remain unspecified amid ongoing debates about their use. The leaders also discussed Ukraine’s victory plan, which was recently made public after being presented privately to allied leaders in September. Biden indicated additional support is planned for the coming months.
U.S. President Joe Biden is set to meet with leaders from Germany, France, and the U.K. in Berlin on October 18, 2024, after a previous visit was postponed due to Hurricane Milton. The meeting comes as Ukraine seeks continued support from its Western allies. President Volodymyr Zelensky recently presented Ukraine’s victory plan to European leaders and Biden, aiming to secure ongoing military and financial aid. Meanwhile, Russian forces are making gains in eastern Ukraine, focusing on the towns of Pokrovsk, Toretsk, and Kurakhove in Donetsk Oblast, where Ukrainian defenders are struggling against superior numbers and firepower.
Ukraine’s Commander-in-Chief Oleksandr Syrskyi announced that the U.K. is developing proposals for Ukraine’s victory plan, which includes potential strikes on Russian military targets in operational and strategic depth. Syrskyi discussed this plan with UK’s Chief of Defense Staff, Admiral Sir Tony Radakin, briefing him on frontline developments and stressing the need for long-range strikes against Russian assets. The conversation covered weapon supplies, personnel training, and the use of high-tech weapons. Ukraine has been requesting permission to use Western long-range weapons to strike targets deep inside Russia, particularly airfields used for glide bomb attacks. While the UK has supplied Storm Shadow cruise missiles, used against targets in occupied Crimea, striking within Russia would require additional approvals due to US component restrictions.
The EU is shifting its strategy to help Ukraine arm itself by using proceeds from frozen Russian assets to fund Ukraine’s domestic weapons production. This approach addresses the EU’s limited production capacity and avoids political issues surrounding the use of Western weapons for deep strikes inside Russia. Denmark is managing $630 million in Danish and EU funding for this purpose, allowing Ukraine to prioritize its needs. The initiative focuses on producing missiles, drones, and other long-range weapons. While this doesn’t replace large-scale Western arms provisions, it integrates Ukraine into Western defense supply chains and potentially allows for more flexible use of domestically produced weapons. As part of this effort, Denmark has funded 18 Ukrainian-made Bohdana howitzers, and Ukraine has begun producing NATO-standard ammunition.
France has successfully tested its first “kamikaze” drones, with plans to deliver 100 to Ukraine in the coming weeks. Defense Minister Sebastien Lecornu announced the success of the Colibri loitering ammunition, developed by Delair and KNDS. These drones, with a 5-kilometer range and costing under 20,000 euros each, will complement other French military aid to Ukraine, including Caesar howitzers and AMX-10 armored vehicles. France has allocated about $3.5 billion in military assistance to Ukraine since 2022 and plans to provide Mirage 2000 jets next year.
Australia has announced it will donate 49 soon-to-be-retired U.S.-made Abrams tanks to Ukraine as part of a $163 million military aid package. This decision follows controversy over Australia’s earlier refusal to transfer Taipan helicopters to Ukraine. Defense Industry Minister Pat Conroy stated the tanks would enhance Ukraine’s firepower and mobility. Since the start of Russia’s full-scale invasion, Australia has provided over $1 billion in aid to Ukraine, including $866 million in military assistance.
Russian Mobilization and Defense Industrial Base
The Russian Defense Ministry reported that two Belgorod Oblast deputy governors and other local officials have temporarily joined the BARS-Belgorod detachment. This unit, still being formed and trained, will reportedly protect infrastructure, combat Ukrainian drones and sabotage groups, evacuate civilians, and enforce counter-terrorism measures in Belgorod Oblast. The ministry claims people from other regions are also applying to join. This announcement may be an effort to encourage more volunteers and create an image of shared war burden among Russian elites.
Russian Defense Minister Andrei Belousov visited submarine production sites and Pacific Fleet housing in Kamchatka Krai. This visit is part of Russia’s naval modernization efforts. Officials reported that recent upgrades have enabled the timely production of seven nuclear submarines. Plans are underway to build 14 new facilities by 2025, aimed at expanding Russia’s submarine capabilities and berthing capacity.
Source Material
Institute for the Study of War – understandingwar.org
The Kyiv Independent – kyivindependent.com
Kyiv Post – kyivpost.com