Today I return to the normal reporting on events surrounding the Russian invasion of Ukraine. It will not only include war news, but news that impacts the periphery of the war.
Summary of the day: Vyacheslav Volodin, the Chairperson of the Russian State Duma, continued Russia’s push to enhance its influence in the Western hemisphere with strategic visits to Nicaragua and Cuba. Meanwhile, tensions escalated in Georgia as several citizens who volunteered with Ukrainian forces were summoned by the State Security Service on serious charges, including conspiracy and terrorism. On the military front, Ukrainian forces executed a successful drone strike on the Millerovo Airbase in Russia, causing notable infrastructure damage. In Ukraine, the conflict intensified as Russian troops advanced near Avdiivka and launched missile and drone strikes, underscoring a persistent and escalating confrontation in the region.
Picture of the day:
A first responder extinguishes fire that was caused by Russia’s overnight attacks on Sumy Oblast. (State Emergency Service/Telegram)
What Can I Do To Help Ukraine? This is a question I receive all the time. We at Transform Ukraine are building longer-term housing for internally displaced Ukrainians. Visit Rebuild Ukraine for how you can assist in housing a Ukrainian family displaced by the war.
Beyond Ukraine – March Towards World War
Russian Duma Chair Vyacheslav Volodin visited Nicaragua and Cuba, reinforcing ties and opposing US influence. In Nicaragua, President Ortega criticized Western sanctions and NATO’s role in Ukraine. Volodin then met Cuba’s President Diaz-Canel, thanking Russia for its support against the US blockade. Additionally, Volodin announced the Duma will observe Venezuela’s upcoming presidential election. These visits highlight Russia’s strategic efforts to strengthen alliances in the Western hemisphere.
Belarusian Prime Minister Roman Golovchenko recently toured Venezuela, Cuba, and Nicaragua, signing significant economic and trade deals, potentially aiding Russia in circumventing Western sanctions. In Venezuela, Golovchenko pledged support for President Maduro and discussed enhancing trade. He then secured contracts in Cuba to exchange Belarusian products for Cuban exports, and in Nicaragua, he facilitated a $85 million deal for Belarusian equipment, underlining Belarus’s role in strengthening economic ties with these countries.
Andrei Klimov, Deputy Chairman of Russia’s Federation Council, expressed Russia’s willingness to help Georgia’s ruling party, “Georgian Dream,” stay in power if they request it. His remarks were made at a Friends of Russia Club meeting in Moscow and reported by Georgian TV channel TV Pirveli. Klimov likened potential support to Russia’s military intervention in Syria to aid Bashar al-Assad, noting that those who seek Russia’s assistance often receive military support. However, Russia’s actions in Syria, including alleged war crimes, highlight the controversial nature of its interventions.
The Georgian State Security Service has summoned several Georgians who volunteered with Ukrainian forces, on charges including conspiracy to overthrow the government and terrorism. Among those called was Lasha Chigladze, who appeared before a Tbilisi judge on suspicions tied to his activities in Ukraine. Another volunteer, Nadim Khmaladze, reported similar charges. These actions mark a significant move by Georgian authorities, who have not used mercenary laws to prosecute these individuals, despite many Georgians fighting for Ukraine since 2014.
The Georgian State Security Service (SUS) has been using Kremlin-style tactics against its own citizens, particularly targeting those protesting against the “foreign agents” bill and Georgians fighting alongside Ukrainian forces. These actions, including claims of plots to overthrow the government, align with Russian efforts to undermine Ukraine’s political movements and Georgia’s pro-European integration. Despite these governmental measures, polls show strong Georgian public support for joining the EU and NATO, suggesting a disconnect between government actions and public sentiment.
Peace Talks
President Volodymyr Zelensky emphasized in a July 20 interview that Ukraine cannot be coerced into surrendering territory for peace, responding to claims by former U.S. President Donald Trump that he could end the Ukraine war within 24 hours. As Trump’s potential victory in the upcoming Nov. 5 presidential election is considered, his peace proposal, which suggests Ukraine make territorial concessions and lift sanctions on Russia, faces scrutiny. Zelensky dismissed the feasibility of such a quick resolution and stressed that the conflict involves the entire nation, not just its leaders, underscoring the deep national wounds inflicted by the war.
Former U.K. Prime Minister Boris Johnson expressed strong support for Donald Trump’s potential to resolve the Russian-Ukrainian conflict in a July 19 opinion piece for the Daily Mail. Johnson, a staunch supporter of Ukraine, argued that Trump’s leadership qualities, demonstrated when he gestured defiantly to supporters after a rally attack, are what the world needs. Despite Trump’s previous controversial statements about ending the war by making Ukraine concede territory and his reluctance to commit to defense aid if elected, Johnson believes Trump can achieve peace on favorable terms for Ukraine and the West. He proposed that Trump could strengthen Ukraine’s stance in peace talks by expediting U.S. military aid and allowing strategic strikes against Russian forces, followed by fostering a positive post-conflict relationship with Russia. Johnson’s comments followed a meeting with Trump at the Republican National Conference, where Trump was nominated as the Republican presidential candidate.
Situation On The Land, Sea, and Air in Ukraine
President Volodymyr Zelensky highlighted that Ukrainian front-line troops are facing shortages of ammunition and drones, an issue exacerbated by delays in U.S. military aid during the first half of 2024. Amidst a critical shortfall in artillery shells over the winter, Ukraine’s Defense Ministry decided to redeploy “a significant amount” of previously expired ammunition to the front lines. Commander-in-Chief Oleksandr Syrskyi confirmed the supply deficiencies during his visit to front-line brigades.
Russian sources reported that Ukrainian forces carried out drone and ATACMS missile strikes against occupied Crimea. The Russian Ministry of Defense stated that five drones were destroyed over the Black Sea, and the occupation head of Kherson Oblast, Vladimir Saldo, claimed that two ATACMS missiles aimed at Crimea were intercepted.
A 22-year-old Polish volunteer, Tomasz Marcin Sekala, part of the International Legion, died on July 13 in Luhansk Oblast, Ukraine, as reported by the Polish Press Agency on July 20. Sekala, who joined the legion in the fall of 2023, was honored with a funeral in Kyiv on the same day. He will be buried in his hometown in Poland. The International Legion, established in late February 2022, comprises foreign fighters supporting Ukraine’s defense.
Kharkiv Front – Initiative None
Russian forces attacked north and northeast of Kharkiv City but made no territorial gains. Clashes occurred near Hlyboke and Vovchansk, with Ukrainian forces launching counterattacks in these areas. A Russian military blogger reported efforts to block Ukrainian advances near the Travyanske Reservoir.
The Russian military is bolstering its forces near Hlyboke and Vovchansk to maintain its offensive stance in the Kharkiv region. Additional units have been deployed to enhance operations. Concurrently, Russian forces are reorganizing several units to sustain assaults in Vovchansk, while others have been pulled back for replenishment. Reports also highlight challenges faced by Russian troops, including inadequate training and lack of essential supplies such as food and water in the combat zone.
Luhansk Front – Initiative Russia
Russian forces attempted advances along the Kupyansk-Svatove-Kreminna line without confirmed frontline changes. The Russian Ministry of Defense claimed territory gains in Andriivka and Pishchane near Svatove, although these assertions are partly contested by Russian military bloggers and lack independent confirmation. Additionally, Russian troops conducted offensive operations in multiple locations around Kupyansk and Svatove. The situation on the ground remains fluid with ongoing military engagements.
Donetsk Front – Initiative Russia
Siversk
Russian forces launched ground attacks around Siversk, targeting multiple directions including northeast near Bilohorivka, east near Verkhnokamyanske, southeast near Vyimka and Spirne, and south near Pereizne. No territorial advances were confirmed by the Ukrainian General Staff for these dates.
Chasiv Yar
Russian forces pressed offensive operations near Chasiv Yar without altering the frontline. Reports from a Russian military blogger suggested a crossing at the Siverskyi Donets-Donbas Canal, but no stable Russian positions have been confirmed west of the canal. The area witnessed ongoing combat, particularly north, southeast, and south of Chasiv Yar.
Toretsk
Russian forces attacked near Toretsk but made no confirmed advances. Reports by Russian military bloggers of progress south and southeast of Toretsk, including near the areas of Pivdenne Mine and Poltavska Street, as well as up to one kilometer into Niu York, remain unverified by visual evidence. Fighting persisted in the vicinity east and southeast of Toretsk, including near Pivnichne, Druzhba, Zalizne, Pivdenne, and Niu York.
Avdiivka
Russian forces made limited advances around Avdiivka, with unconfirmed reports of movements southwest, northwest, and west of the city. Geolocated footage suggests a Russian advance northeast of Nevelske. Despite claims by Russian military bloggers of gains north of Prohres and near Lozuvatske, there is no visual confirmation. Fighting persisted in various sectors around Avdiivka. Russian military units were reported near Ocheretyne and Prohres.
Southwest of Donetsk City
Russian forces continued offensive operations west and southwest of Donetsk City without confirmed gains. Claims by Russian military bloggers of advances in central Krasnohorivka were unverified. Ukrainian forces successfully repelled a Russian mechanized assault south of Kostyantynivka. Fighting persisted in the areas west and southwest of Donetsk City, including Krasnohorivka and nearby towns. Russian military units, including artillery and motorized rifle brigades, were active near Krasnohorivka and Kostyantynivka.
Zaporizhia Front – Initiative Russia
Zaporizhia-Donetsk Border Area
Russian forces continued ground attacks near the Donetsk-Zaporizhia Oblast border, specifically targeting the area around Staromayorske.
Zaporizhia Line
Ongoing positional battles occurred in western Zaporizhia Oblast, particularly around Robotyne and the nearby areas of Mala Tokmachka, Novodanylivka, and Shcherbaky.
Kherson (Dnipro River) Front – Initiative None
Continued positional fighting occurred in east Kherson Oblast, specifically around Krynky and Kozachi Laheri. Russian military bloggers reported ongoing operations to clear islands in the Dnipro River Delta. Ukrainian forces are reported to be positioned near Kruhlyk Lake, west of Oleshky.
Ukraine News
Russian forces launched missile and drone attacks against Ukraine, firing 39 Shahed drones and three Iskander-M ballistic missiles, along with two Kh-59/69 cruise missiles from various locations including Kursk and Crimea. Ukrainian forces successfully intercepted 35 drones and used electronic warfare to thwart the cruise missile attacks. Reports also noted damage to critical infrastructure in Sumy Oblast and an agricultural facility in Mykolaiv Oblast due to Russian missile strikes. In Kyiv, all attacking drones were shot down, marking the fifth such defense against drone attacks in the past two weeks.
Ukrainian sources noted that Russian forces deployed a new type of strike drone in attacks on Ukraine. Images of the drone wreckage were shared by Ukrainian media, suggesting it resembles the Russian ZALA 421-20 reconnaissance drone but operates at low altitudes of 20-30 meters. Components from both Russia and China were reportedly used in this drone, though these details remain unverified.
Thousands attended a memorial service in Lviv for Iryna Farion, a former Ukrainian lawmaker and linguist, assassinated on July 19. Farion, 60, known for her nationalist views and strong stance on language use in Ukraine, was shot outside her home and died after undergoing surgery. The public service at Saints Peter and Paul Garrison Church ran from 7 p.m. to 10 p.m., with a funeral scheduled for the following day. President Volodymyr Zelensky has stated that the investigation is ongoing, with Russian involvement not yet dismissed, and all relevant Ukrainian security forces are engaged in the manhunt for the assailant.
Ukrainian Foreign Minister Dmytro Kuleba urged Western allies to overcome their fears of escalating the conflict with Russia, advocating for more decisive military support for Ukraine. During a Reddit Q&A session on July 19, Kuleba criticized the cautious approach of key allies like the U.S. and Germany, which have hesitated to supply long-range weapons or allow strikes within Russia due to escalation risks. He labeled these fears as “irrational,” noting that increased military aid has not resulted in heightened conflict. Kuleba emphasized that the West should proactively deter Russian aggression by providing Ukraine with advanced military assets, including Patriot missile systems, F-16 jets, and ample artillery ammunition. Additionally, he addressed various topics such as U.S. military investment, Polish-Ukrainian relations, and Ukraine’s ambitions to join NATO and the EU. Kuleba reaffirmed Ukraine’s commitment to work with any future U.S. administration, regardless of the upcoming presidential election outcome. He also reflected on the historical context of the conflict, criticizing past security assurances like the Budapest Memorandum and highlighting the longstanding imperialistic ambitions of Russia towards Ukraine.
Ukraine’s Human Rights Ombudsman Dmytro Lubinets criticized the International Committee of the Red Cross (ICRC) for failing to visit most Ukrainian prisoners of war (POWs) held in Russia, despite claims of widespread visits. Lubinets responded to an interview where Boris Michel, head of the ICRC’s delegation in Russia, stated they had visited 3,100 POWs in Russia and Ukraine. However, Lubinets noted that the visits primarily benefited Russian POWs in Ukraine, not Ukrainians in Russian captivity. He highlighted that the majority of Ukrainian POWs released had not encountered ICRC representatives during their detention. This statement comes amid ongoing complaints about the ICRC’s neutrality and effectiveness, especially given the strict communication restrictions imposed by Russia on Ukrainian POWs, contrary to the Geneva Conventions. Meanwhile, as of January, 8,000 Ukrainians remain captive in Russia, and family petitions to equalize communication rights with Russian captives have been denied by the Ukrainian government.
President Volodymyr Zelensky discussed the possibility of holding wartime elections in Ukraine during an interview with BBC on July 20. Although his term expired in May, martial law, imposed since Russia’s full-scale invasion on February 24, 2022, prohibits elections. Zelensky highlighted the complexities of conducting fair elections amid the ongoing conflict, mentioning challenges like the Constitution which cannot be amended during martial law, the situation of Ukrainians in occupied territories, soldiers in trenches, and citizens abroad. He emphasized the necessity of finding new methods to facilitate elections if the war prolongs, asserting that continuing the war for many years or a decade is not a viable option.
Innocent Victims Of War
The casualty count of civilians in the past 24 hours:
DEATHS: 0 INJURIES: 2
- Two Ukrainian photojournalists were injured under Russian artillery fire while documenting the war from a trench in Donetsk Oblast on July 19. Olga Kovalyova, a senior project manager with the Ukrainian Association of Professional Photographers, was hospitalized with three shrapnel wounds and is in stable condition, though one piece of shrapnel could not be safely removed, and she currently cannot use her right hand. The other photographer, Vladyslav Krasnoshchok, sustained a concussion but did not require hospitalization. The incident occurred when Russian forces retaliated after Ukrainian artillerymen, alongside whom the photographers were positioned, had engaged them. This attack in the Toretsk direction involved multiple strikes, one of which directly hit their trench.
Ukraine’s Allies
President Joe Biden has suspended his reelection campaign and endorsed Vice President Kamala Harris as his successor for the 2024 Democratic presidential nomination, stating it was in the best interest of his party and country. He made his announcement on social media, urging support for Harris to unify the party against Donald Trump. This decision was influenced by pressure from senior Democrats and concerns about his fitness for office, recently highlighted by his positive COVID-19 test and a poor debate performance in June. Vice President Harris, known for her focus on immigration and reproductive rights and active role in foreign policy, particularly regarding Ukraine, is expected to maintain Biden’s policy stance towards Ukraine if elected. Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky expressed gratitude for Biden’s substantial support during Ukraine’s conflict with Russia and highlighted the need for ongoing U.S. support, regardless of the election’s outcome. The official Democratic nominee will be confirmed at the DNC in Chicago in August.
President Zelensky acknowledged the recent arrival of a German Patriot air defense system, thanking Germany and the United States, which will enhance Ukraine’s aerial defense capabilities following increased Russian attacks on its energy infrastructure.
Russia News
A Ukrainian drone strike damaged the Millerovo Airbase in Russia’s Rostov Oblast, affecting a maintenance hangar, a fuel depot, and causing a nearby field fire. The extent of damage to aircraft remains unclear.
Russian Mobilization and Defense Industrial Base
Russian regions are increasing financial incentives to boost military recruitment. Yaroslavl Oblast is offering 100,000 rubles ($1,150) to anyone who successfully refers a friend who signs a contract with the Russian Ministry of Defense. Tatarstan initiated a similar program. However, concerns have been raised about the potential for abuse of these systems, with calls for legal regulation. There are also reports that some individuals are joining the military to resolve gambling debts.
Russian military forces are developing a specialized motorcycle unit to adapt to increased Ukrainian drone strikes and aerial surveillance, which have made smaller, faster vehicles necessary for frontline logistics. A Russian military blogger reported that the 5th Motorized Rifle Brigade is setting up a military motorcycle school, with other brigades also addressing this initiative seriously. Additionally, plans are in place to formally introduce a military motorcycle specialty, with training by the Russian Volunteer Society for Assistance to the Army, Aviation, and Navy scheduled to start on October 1.
The Tikhiye Krylya Group, part of the Kalashnikov Concern, announced on July 17 that it successfully tested the “Legionnaire E33k” drone, designed for cargo delivery. The drone weighs 29.9 kilograms and has a four-meter wingspan. It can travel 200 kilometers with a three-kilogram payload or 50 kilometers with a ten-kilogram payload, with a maximum flight time of 150 minutes.
Russian Narrative and Propaganda
Hackers spread a pro-Kremlin message urging Ukrainian forces to surrender across 273 prominent Ukrainian Telegram channels. The message falsely accused Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky of initiating the conflict and claimed Ukraine’s First Lady had bought a luxury sports car. It appeared on channels with over one million followers and was distributed to a total of 1,964 channels, mostly Russian but including major Ukrainian ones. Russian and Ukrainian bots known for auto-posting and audience analysis were exploited in this cyberattack. The Ukrainian government advised the removal of the compromised bots, and the bot representatives promised to involve law enforcement. This attack resembles a similar incident from March 2022.
Russian state media is reportedly working to create a network of purported pro-Russian voices within Ukraine. This effort aims to undermine trust in the Ukrainian government and demoralize its society. According to the Kremlin newswire TASS, interviews with supposed members of a pro-Russian underground movement in Ukraine have been used to spread false claims about Western mercenaries, alleged crimes by Ukrainian forces, and domestic issues. This strategy appears to be part of a broader attempt to infiltrate and manipulate Ukrainian information channels with pro-Russian narratives.
Kremlin state media is accused of distorting President Zelensky’s remarks about potential negotiations with Russia. Despite Zelensky discussing possible talks at the second Global Peace Summit under specific conditions, TASS reported that he was open to negotiations, contradicting a Ukrainian decree that bans such discussions. This misrepresentation aims to portray the Ukrainian government as violating its own laws and disregarding public opinion.
Source Material
Institute for the Study of War – understandingwar.org
The Kyiv Independent – kyivindependent.com
Kyiv Post – kyivpost.com