Summary of the Day:
Ukrainian and Russian forces engaged in significant territorial exchanges. Ukrainian forces advanced in Kharkiv Oblast, while Russian forces made notable gains near Novy Put in Kursk Oblast, as well as pushing forward in multiple directions including Kupyansk, Kreminna, Pokrovsk, Kurakhove, and Vuhledar.
Russian drone and missile strikes have devastated Ukraine’s power infrastructure, with generation capacity plummeting from 37.6 gigawatts in early 2022 to just 12.1 gigawatts by Summer 2024. Over 200 Russian missile and drone strikes in August 2024 alone significantly damaged critical power facilities, with repairs expected to take up to a year due to specialized equipment requirements.
Major General Mirza Mirzaev, Deputy Head of Logistics for Russia’s National Guard (Rosgvardia), was arrested on November 3 for bribery, signaling continued instability in Russian military leadership. A Radio Free Europe/Radio Liberty investigation exposed Russia’s March 2022 demands for Ukraine’s complete surrender, revealing Moscow’s unwillingness to engage in genuine negotiations.
Russia launched information operations to discredit Moldovan President Maia Sandu’s election victory while expanding its influence through foreign “media schools.” In Georgia, protesters continued to demonstrate against the contested October 26 parliamentary elections, demanding international investigation into voting irregularities.
Picture of the Day:
The aftermath of a Russian attack on a Kharkiv supermarket and nearby buildings. (Ukraine’s State Emergency Service / Kharkiv)
Beyond Ukraine – The March Towards World War
The contested Moldovan election result threatens to escalate tensions between Russia and the West at a critical time for European stability. President Maia Sandu’s victory with 55.35% of the vote represents a clear choice for Western alignment, but Russia’s immediate campaign to delegitimize the results signals potential further destabilization efforts in the region. This development is particularly significant as Moldova sits at a strategic crossroads between NATO countries and Russian interests. The coordinated disinformation effort by Russian and pro-Russian actors, including former president Igor Dodon and oligarch Ilan Shor, demonstrates Moscow’s continued strategy of undermining democratic processes in neighboring states. As Moldova moves closer to European Union integration, this election dispute adds another flashpoint to the already tense relationship between Russia and the West, raising concerns about regional stability and the potential for increased geopolitical confrontation.
The disputed Georgian parliamentary election of October 26 marks another critical challenge to democracy along Russia’s borders, raising concerns about regional stability and Western influence in the Caucasus. As thousands protest in Tbilisi against the pro-Russian Georgian Dream party’s contested victory, the situation threatens to create another potential flashpoint between Russia and the West. The opposition’s call for international intervention and new elections highlights growing tensions over Russian influence in former Soviet states. This political crisis in Georgia, a strategically located nation between Europe and Asia, could further destabilize the region and complicate Western efforts to contain Russian expansion. The international community’s response to allegations of election fraud and Russian interference could have lasting implications for democratic institutions in the region and the broader balance of power between Russia and NATO-aligned nations.
In a concerning escalation of military cooperation between sanctioned nations, Russia’s planned November 5 launch of two Iranian satellites signals growing threats to global stability. The launch of Kowsar and Hodhod satellites, while claimed for civilian purposes like environmental monitoring and communications, has alarmed U.S. officials who warn these could enhance military capabilities in multiple conflict zones. This partnership has already demonstrated its dangerous potential through Iran’s provision of Shahed drones and ballistic missiles to Russia, weapons actively used against Ukraine. The deepening Russia-Iran alliance and their shared satellite technology could increase military surveillance capabilities across Ukraine, Israel, and the Middle East, potentially intensifying regional conflicts and destabilizing international peace efforts.
The November 5 U.S. presidential election stands as a critical moment for global peace, with Ukraine’s fate hanging in the balance between contrasting potential policies. While former British Prime Minister Boris Johnson believes Trump would continue supporting Ukraine, citing his previous Javelin weapons authorization, concerns persist about possible U.S. withdrawal of support or pressure for Ukrainian concessions under a new Trump presidency. Currently, Russia is making unprecedented battlefield gains against exhausted Ukrainian forces, despite the Biden administration’s crucial $64 billion military aid package. With Trump and Harris polling neck-and-neck, their differing approaches to Ukraine support could dramatically impact international stability – Harris pledging continued support while Trump’s stance remains uncertain. Johnson emphasizes that regardless of who wins, current support levels must increase and Ukraine needs NATO membership to ensure long-term peace, suggesting that the U.S. election outcome could either strengthen or severely undermine global security.
The Path to Peace
A Radio Free Europe/Radio Liberty investigation through their Sistema project has exposed a previously undisclosed March 7, 2022, Russian peace treaty proposal to Ukraine, revealing the Kremlin’s true negotiating stance and contradicting Russia’s claims about failed peace talks. The six-page document, presented during Belarus talks and verified by sources, contained extensive demands: Ukraine would need to reduce its military from 197,000 to 50,000 personnel, give up weapons development capabilities, recognize the independence of Russian-occupied Donetsk and Luhansk regions, make Russian a state language, restore Moscow-aligned church property rights, allow Soviet symbols, and bear reconstruction costs for war-damaged areas. While a subsequent April draft reported by The New York Times showed somewhat moderated terms, current positions remain starkly divided – Putin demands Ukraine surrender four regions (Donetsk, Luhansk, Kherson, and Zaporizhzhia) and abandon NATO aspirations, while Ukraine insists on complete Russian withdrawal based on its 10-step peace formula, with no direct negotiations having occurred since the war’s early months.
Ukraine’s Presidential Office head Andriy Yermak clarified that while Ukraine isn’t in direct talks with Russia about an energy ceasefire, they’re open to third-party mediation, possibly through Qatar, to implement peace formula discussions. This comes as Ukraine faces a critical winter with half its energy infrastructure destroyed by Russian attacks. While media reports suggested Qatar-mediated talks about mutual cessation of energy strikes, both Kyiv and Moscow deny current negotiations. President Zelensky had previously suggested that Russia’s willingness to stop energy attacks could signal readiness for broader peace talks. Such an agreement would represent the most significant de-escalation since Russia’s 2022 invasion.
Situation On The Land, Sea, and Air in Ukraine
Russia’s military strategy is undergoing significant restructuring and degradation, as evidenced by the disbandment of specialized units like the 174th Reconnaissance Battalion and 110th Motorized Rifle Brigade’s drone unit, with personnel being reassigned to basic infantry roles. The military command has adopted controversial tactics involving new contract soldiers in “meat assaults” against Ukrainian defenses, with military bloggers reporting these “second-rate infantry” recruits are being deliberately sacrificed in high-casualty attacks to wear down Ukrainian forces. Amid Russian casualties reportedly exceeding 700,000 dead and wounded, the Emergency Ministry has distributed an updated manual for wartime mass graves to troops, detailing specifications for burial sites holding up to 100 bodies and including guidelines for chemical, biological, and radiological contamination. Despite these significant losses, Russian forces continue advancing in eastern Ukraine, bolstered by 10,000-12,000 newly deployed North Korean troops and ongoing recruitment efforts targeting migrants and residents from poorer regions through financial incentives.
Ukrainian naval drones are successfully restricting Russian Black Sea Fleet operations, according to Navy Spokesperson Captain Pletenchuk. Poor weather is also hampering Russian aerial reconnaissance in the area. Russian forces are reportedly moving vessels from Novorossiysk port due to concerns about potential Ukrainian drone strikes on their fleet.
The war in Ukraine faces a growing medical crisis as antibiotic-resistant infections increasingly threaten wounded soldiers’ survival. At Dnipro Mechnikov Hospital, chief surgeon Sergiy Kosulnykov reports that 50% of soldiers arrive from the battlefield already carrying drug-resistant bacteria, even before treatment begins. The problem is worsened by dangerous battlefield conditions, where drone surveillance makes quick evacuations nearly impossible, leaving wounds to fester. This delays crucial medical care and forces doctors to use increasingly powerful antibiotics without waiting for lab results, creating a cycle of growing bacterial resistance. The crisis has overwhelmed Ukrainian hospitals, with Dnipro Mechnikov Hospital seeing ten times its normal patient load, significantly impacting Ukraine’s ability to return wounded soldiers to combat readiness.
Ukrainian Operations in the Russian Federation – Initiative None
Fighting continued in Ukraine’s Kursk Oblast salient with Russian forces striking Ukrainian positions in eastern Martynovka near Sudzha. Russian forces made a marginal advance near Novyi Put, southwest of Glushkovo, as confirmed by geolocated footage of Ukrainian strikes on Russian positions in this area. Russian forces also reported attacks near Darino, Leonidovo, Nikolayevo-Darino, Novoivanovka, and Plekhovo, while Ukrainian forces were active near Pogrebki. Despite these engagements, the frontline remained largely static, with a Russian military blogger attributing the lack of significant changes to deteriorating weather conditions during the Fall mud season.
Ukrainian President Zelensky reports that 11,000 North Korean troops are now deployed in Russia’s Kursk Oblast, with over 7,000 recently relocated from Russia’s Primorsky Krai closer to the Ukrainian border, aligning with U.S. Secretary of State Blinken’s estimate of approximately 8,000 troops in the region. Ukrainian security official Andrii Kovalenko has reported that these North Korean servicemen have already come under fire in Kursk Oblast, where fighting has intensified since Ukraine’s cross-border offensive in August, though details remain limited. Ukraine anticipates Russia’s total North Korean troop deployment to reach 12,000, including special forces with combat deployment imminent, and Zelensky has indicated that Ukraine could target North Korean troop gatherings in Russia if given access to Western long-range weapons.
Kharkiv Front – Initiative Russia
Ukrainian forces made advances near the Travyanske Reservoir west of Hlyboke, north of Kharkiv City. Meanwhile, Russian forces continued offensive operations near Lyptsi and Vovchansk. According to a Ukrainian brigade spokesperson, Russian forces have shifted tactics, moving away from armored vehicle assaults in favor of smaller infantry group operations.
Luhansk Front – Initiative Russia
Russian forces gained ground in two areas: west of Novoselivske (southeast of Kupyansk) and southeast of Yampolivka (northwest of Kreminna). Ukrainian forces successfully repelled a Russian mechanized platoon assault near Lyman. Russian operations continued across multiple settlements along the Kupyansk-Svatove-Kreminna line, including Kindrashivka, Petropavlivka, Kolisnykivka, and several other locations in the region.
Donetsk Front – Initiative Russia
Siversk
The Ukrainian General Staff reported that Russian forces attempted but failed to advance near Bilohorivka, northeast of Siversk.
Chasiv Yar
Russian forces continued attacks near Chasiv Yar and Stupochky but failed to make any confirmed advances.
Toretsk
Near Toretsk, both sides made limited gains: Russian forces advanced along Molodizhna Street in northwestern Pivnichne, while Ukrainian forces recaptured previously lost positions in central Nelipivka. Russian forces attempted but failed to advance near Toretsk itself and the nearby settlements of Dachne and Shcherbynivka.
Pokrovsk
Russian forces made advances in two areas near Pokrovsk: in fields northwest of Selydove and at the eastern outskirts of Novooleksiivka, where they conducted a platoon-sized mechanized assault. Fighting continues across multiple settlements in the region, including Myrolyubivka, Promin, Sukhyi Yar, Lysivka, Novohrodivka, Hryhorivka, and Yurivka. A claimed Russian advance southwest of Vyshneve remains unconfirmed.
Kurakhove
Russian forces advanced in the Kurakhove area, reaching western Novodmytrivka and likely capturing Hirnyk. Additional Russian advances near Kreminna Balka, Illinka, Novoselydivka, and Voznesenka are claimed but unconfirmed. A Ukrainian brigade spokesperson reported that Russian forces are attempting to repair equipment losses after losing nearly 100 armored vehicles in October, while preparing for future mechanized assaults. Russian attacks continued across multiple settlements, including Kreminna Balka, Novoselydivka, Illinka, Vovchenka, and Ostrivske.
Southwest of Donetsk City
Russian forces captured western Shakhtarske, northwest of Vuhledar, as confirmed by geolocated footage showing Russian forces raising their flag. Claims of Russian advances near Katerynivka and Yasna Polyana remain unconfirmed. Fighting continues across several settlements including Katerynivka, Antonivka, Trudove, Maksymivka, and Yasna Polyana.
Zaporizhia Front – Initiative Russia
In western Zaporizhia Oblast, Russian forces launched attacks near several settlements including Novodanylivka, Orikhiv, Novoandriivka, and Stepove, but failed to make any advances in the area.
Kherson (Dnipro River) Front – Initiative Russia
Russian forces attempted ground assaults on the eastern bank of Kherson Oblast but failed to gain any territory.
Ukraine News
Russian forces launched a large-scale aerial attack against Ukraine using one Iskander-M missile and 80 Shahed attack drones, with President Zelensky reporting that Russian drone attacks have increased tenfold since Fall 2023. Ukrainian forces successfully intercepted 50 drones across multiple regions including Kyiv, Sumy, Odesa, Kherson, Mykolaiv, Zhytomyr, Cherkasy, Chernihiv, and Kirovohrad. The attacks, which lasted three hours in Kyiv where all enemy drones were shot down, caused fires in Kyiv’s Desnyanskyi and Obolonskyi districts from falling debris, damaged buildings in Bolhradska and a recreation camp in Vasylivska, while in Kharkiv’s Shevchenkivskyi district, Russian bomb strikes on civilian targets injured 15 people, including four police officers.
Russian attacks on Ukraine’s energy infrastructure have severely reduced the country’s power generation capacity. Ukrainian power generation fell from 37.6 gigawatts in early 2022 to 12.1 gigawatts in Summer 2024, following over 200 Russian missile and drone strikes in August 2024. The full extent of recent damage remains unclear. Energy experts warn that repairs could take up to a year due to specialized equipment needs and emphasize Ukraine’s need for additional air defense systems to protect power facilities. This represents a nearly 70% reduction in Ukraine’s power generation capacity since the start of the war.
A recent survey by the Kyiv International Institute of Sociology (KMIS) shows the first decline in Ukrainians’ willingness to endure war indefinitely, dropping to 63% from previous levels of 71-73%, with support varying by region – western and central Ukraine showing stronger resolve while southern and eastern regions saw significant drops in long-term commitment. While 69% of Ukrainians are still prepared to withstand a relatively long period, including 15% for several months and 6% for one-year, public sentiment is shifting, with 47% now believing Russia has sufficient resources for a prolonged war, up from 22% in early 2023. Despite these shifts, the Razumkov Center reports that 83% of Ukrainians still believe in eventual victory, though expectations for quick success have diminished from early 2023 levels. The poll, conducted in September-October with 989 respondents, excluded refugees, residents in Russian-occupied territories, and areas outside Ukrainian government control, with these findings emerging as Ukraine faces increasing challenges, including Russian advances in the east and potential winter attacks on energy infrastructure, while concerns grow about future international support amid upcoming U.S. elections.
Innocent Victims Of War
The casualty count of civilians in the past 24 hours: (Russian War Crimes)
DEATHS: 0 INJURIES: 15
Russian forces struck Kharkiv’s Shevchenkivskyi district hitting a supermarket and residential buildings. The attack injured 15 people, including four police officers, and damaged apartments, businesses, and power lines. Emergency crews continue rescue efforts in this latest assault on Kharkiv’s civilian areas.
Ukraine’s Allies
Ukraine and Lithuania have signed a defense industry agreement to jointly produce drones, ammunition, and electronic warfare systems. Lithuania, which has already provided Ukraine with €683 million ($763 million) in military aid since Russia’s invasion, will also allocate €10 million ($11 million) to purchase Ukrainian-made Palianytsia missile-drones. Defense Minister Rustem Umerov emphasized Lithuania’s role as a key ally, and both countries discussed future military assistance plans for 2025 while sharing intelligence about Russian military intentions for the coming winter.
During a visit to Kyiv, German Foreign Minister Annalena Baerbock announced 200 million euros in humanitarian winter aid for Ukraine. The funds will provide essential winter supplies like blankets and warm coats to Ukrainians facing potential Russian attacks on energy infrastructure. Germany has also committed an additional 170 million euros specifically for energy infrastructure support. Ukrainian officials warn that Russia is planning strikes on power facilities to create harsh winter conditions. During the visit, Ukrainian and German officials also discussed concerns about North Korean troops positioned along Ukraine’s eastern front.
Canada’s first U.S.-made NASAMS air defense system is finally headed to Ukraine, with expected arrival by year’s end, Prime Minister Trudeau informed President Zelensky on November 4. The $406 million system, announced in January 2023, joins earlier NASAMS batteries provided by the U.S. since November 2022.
President Zelensky announced that Ukraine is receiving increased military aid, particularly artillery, from international partners. This follows his recent concern that Ukraine had received only 10% of U.S. Congress-approved assistance from April. The U.S. announced a new $425 million aid package on November 1. Zelensky was also briefed on military operations against Russian forces near Kursk Oblast and discussed expanding Ukraine’s drone capabilities with Defense Minister Umerov. The increased aid comes as Ukraine faces battlefield challenges, including manpower shortages due to stalled mobilization efforts, and concerns about potential changes in U.S. support depending on upcoming election outcomes.
EU diplomat Josep Borrell visited South Korea on November 4 to address concerns about North Korea’s involvement in Russia’s war against Ukraine. While South Korea understands the threat Russia poses, its laws prevent direct military aid to conflict zones, limiting support to humanitarian assistance and possible indirect artillery supplies through the U.S. During his visit to the Korean Demilitarized Zone, Borrell encouraged increased support for Ukraine while seeking to elevate EU-Seoul cooperation, though experts suggest direct South Korean weapons supplies remain unlikely due to legal restrictions.
Russia News
The arrest of Major General Mirza Mirzaev, Deputy Head of Logistics for Rosgvardia (Russia’s National Guard), for demanding a $1.42 million kickback from a military contractor signals significant disruption in Russia’s military leadership during a critical phase of the Ukraine war. The timing is particularly notable, as it follows the May 2024 replacement of Defense Minister Sergei Shoigu and subsequent arrests of other high-ranking military officials, including Major General Aleksander Ogloblin for telecom-related bribes, Major General Ivan Popov for allegedly selling 2,000 tons of military fortification materials, and General Yuriy Kuznetsov for bribery. As Rosgvardia plays a crucial role in Russian military operations, this leadership instability and anti-corruption purge could impact Russia’s military effectiveness and supply chain management, with the potential weakening of Rosgvardia Head Viktor Zolotov’s influence and the possibility of more arrests potentially further destabilizing Russia’s military command structure. According to British Defense Intelligence, these arrests suggest not a genuine effort to eliminate corruption, but rather an attempt to control it at “manageable levels,” with the cases particularly impacting Russia’s war effort in Ukraine, given Popov’s case involved theft of materials meant for military fortifications and his public criticism of military leadership’s handling of the war.
Russian War Losses (Today/Total)
| Troops +1260
701650 |
Tanks +15
9208 |
Artillery +29
20150 |
Arm. VEH +43
18581 |
Aircraft
369 |
Heli
329 |
Ships
28 |
Russian Mobilization and Defense Industrial Base
Russia has granted citizenship to 3,344 foreigners in 2024 through a simplified process that waives requirements for Russian language and history knowledge. The policy, established by President Putin, offers citizenship to foreign military contractors and their families after one year of service. Russia is actively recruiting fighters from Nepal, Somalia, India, and Cuba, while also easing citizenship requirements for Ukrainian residents – a move Ukraine’s government has condemned.
The Russian Orthodox Church, under Patriarch Kirill, is actively supporting the “Time of Heroes” program, which places Ukraine war veterans in local and regional government positions. This initiative appears to be part of a broader strategy to militarize Russian society and ensure pro-Kremlin leadership at local levels.
Russian military blogger reports that Nova Labs has developed a handheld anti-drone weapon that launches a drone with autonomous targeting capabilities. The device could potentially be used by civilians to protect critical infrastructure like oil depots from drone attacks.
Russia’s Allies
North Korea is receiving significant compensation from Russia for providing troops, including $2,000 monthly per soldier (potentially totaling $200 million annually), food aid, and space technology assistance. South Korean lawmaker Wi Sung-lac reports that Russia is supplying 600,000-700,000 tons of rice to help address North Korea’s food shortage. The arrangement includes Russian support for North Korea’s military satellite program.
Controlling the Narrative and Russian Propaganda
Russia’s Defense Ministry is launching a five-year military journalist program at Prince Alexander Nevsky Military University, combining journalism and military training to staff state media outlets. Graduates will become lieutenants working in military press services and state-run media, with training in information warfare and tactical military operations.
The Washington Post reported on November 4 that Mikhail Zvinchuk, founder of the Kremlin-backed Rybar Telegram channel, attempted to portray his organization as an independent think tank despite clear ties to Russian state interests. While denying US allegations of election interference, Zvinchuk revealed Rybar’s expansion through “media schools” in Serbia, Bosnia and Herzegovina, and Kyrgyzstan, with a network of 250 channels in 28 languages. Though Zvinchuk tried to present Rybar as occasionally critical of Russia, the organization’s connections to the Kremlin are evident through state honors from President Putin, Ministry of Defense awards, and funding from the state defense company Rostec.
Source Material
Institute for the Study of War – understandingwar.org
The Kyiv Independent – kyivindependent.com
Kyiv Post – kyivpost.com