Summary of the Day:
Ukrainian President Zelensky outlined conditions for a “just peace” with Russia, emphasizing Ukraine’s need for a strong military force, Western security guarantees, and future membership in NATO and the EU to deter Russian aggression. Ukraine plans to boost its military capabilities, with Prime Minister Denys Shmyhal announcing production targets of 3,000 cruise missiles and 30,000 long-range drones in 2025. The country’s defense industry aims to increase production capacity to $30 billion and attract $1 billion in foreign investment.
Zelensky addressed election concerns, clarifying that Ukrainian law prohibits holding presidential and parliamentary elections during martial law, which can only be lifted when immediate threats to Ukraine’s independence end. Russian officials have misrepresented these legal requirements to question Zelensky’s legitimacy.
On the battlefield, Russian forces made tactical advances near Pokrovsk, Kurakhove, and Vuhledar. Meanwhile, Ukraine’s Military Intelligence Directorate reported that five Russian vessels, including the Ivan Gren and Alexander Otrakovsky, are scheduled to arrive at Syria’s Port of Tartus between January 5-8 to evacuate military assets to Libya, potentially extending Russian military influence in North Africa.
The Russian Ministry of Defense continues to promote its official “Glaz/Groza” reconnaissance and strike coordination software package, though reports indicate troops are still relying on alternative communication systems.
Picture of the Day:
The aftermath of a Russian missile attack on residential areas on the outskirts of Chernihiv. Russia launched three ballistic missiles at the city, killing a 72-year-old man and injuring four others. Two houses were severely damaged. (Chernihiv Regional Military Administration / Handout / Anadolu via Getty Images)
Beyond Ukraine – The March Towards World War
Between January 5-8, Russia is conducting a significant military asset transfer operation involving five vessels – the Ivan Gren, Alexander Otrakovsky, Sparta, Sparta II, and Ivan Skobelev – which are scheduled to arrive at Syria’s Port of Tartus to evacuate Russian military equipment and weapons to Libya, according to Ukraine’s Main Military Intelligence Directorate (GUR). This evacuation from the Tartus naval base follows the fall of the Assad regime in December and involves Russia’s Africa Corps, a force of over 2,000 personnel including former Wagner Group mercenaries currently stationed at the base. The loss of Russian bases in Syria could significantly diminish Moscow’s influence in the Middle East, potentially shifting regional power dynamics and extending Russian military influence in North Africa, marking a significant change in the Middle East’s security landscape following Assad’s overthrow.
Poland snubbed Hungarian leaders at the opening of its EU Council presidency, excluding Prime Minister Viktor Orban and Hungary’s ambassador after Hungary granted asylum to a former Polish official under investigation. The diplomatic tension reflects growing differences between the two nations, particularly regarding Ukraine. While Poland’s new Prime Minister Donald Tusk promises continued support for Ukraine and prioritizes security during Poland’s presidency, Hungary under Orban has opposed military aid to Kyiv and maintained closer ties with Moscow. This rift between EU members could impact European unity in supporting Ukraine and maintaining pressure on Russia, affecting regional stability.
Polish farmers protested in Warsaw against EU policies and Ukrainian agricultural imports, which they say threaten their farms. The demonstration, coinciding with Poland’s EU Council presidency inauguration, focused on five key issues including Ukrainian imports and EU environmental policies. The protest reflects ongoing tensions between supporting Ukraine during wartime and protecting domestic agriculture – a challenge that could affect European unity and Ukraine’s economic integration with the EU. Poland has already banned some Ukrainian agricultural imports while trying to balance farmer concerns with maintaining solidarity with Ukraine during the war.
Around 4,000 protesters gathered in Bratislava to oppose Slovak Prime Minister Robert Fico’s pro-Russian policies, particularly following his recent Moscow visit with Putin. The demonstration was sparked by growing concerns over Slovakia’s dramatic shift from being a strong Ukraine supporter to adopting pro-Russian positions. Fico recently threatened to cut aid to Ukrainian refugees and halt electricity supplies to Ukraine after Kyiv stopped Russian gas transit through its territory. This political shift in Slovakia, along with similar positions in Hungary under Viktor Orban, signals growing divisions within the EU regarding support for Ukraine, potentially weakening European unity against Russian aggression and impacting regional stability.
Russian-occupied Transnistria began emergency power outages after Russia’s Gazprom suspended gas deliveries to Moldova on January 1, citing disputed unpaid debts, leaving 75,000 households without gas and 116,000 with reduced supply in the region’s main cities – Tiraspol, Rybnitsa, and Bender. While Moldova offered to help Transnistria purchase gas through European markets, the Russian-occupied region rejected this assistance, preferring to wait for Gazprom to resume deliveries despite temperatures dropping to -5°C in the region that has been occupied by Russian troops since the 1990s.
Moldovan Prime Minister Dorin Recean declared a security crisis, accusing Russia of weaponizing energy to destabilize Moldova and enable pro-Russian forces to regain power. This crisis exemplifies Russia’s use of energy as a political weapon and its ongoing influence in the region through energy politics, threatening stability and potentially creating another flashpoint of tension along Ukraine’s border in this disputed territory.
A Finnish court has upheld the seizure of the Russian oil tanker Eagle S, which is suspected of damaging the Estlink 2 undersea power cable between Estonia and Finland on December 25. The vessel, believed to be part of Russia’s shadow fleet used to evade sanctions, was seized on December 28 despite appeals from its UAE-based owner Caravella LLC FZ. Three Finnish companies – Fingrid, Elisa, and Cinia – are seeking compensation for the cable damage. The investigation, which includes crew interrogations, is expected to take several months, and NATO has increased its Baltic Sea presence in response to the incident.
The Path to Peace
Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky outlined key requirements for achieving a “just peace” with Russia. He emphasized that Ukraine needs a strong military force, Western security guarantees, and future membership in NATO and the EU to deter Russian aggression. Zelensky rejected Russia’s demand to reduce Ukraine’s military to 50,000 personnel, while noting that Russian President Vladimir Putin continues to insist on terms amounting to Ukraine’s complete surrender, including the removal of Ukraine’s legitimate government and forced demilitarization.
A German opposition lawmaker, Roderich Kiesewetter, suggested that Germany should consider sending troops to Ukraine for post-war peacekeeping, following reports that the UK and France are contemplating similar moves. The proposal, which would require NATO framework and Russian consent, reflects growing discussions about Europe’s role in future Ukrainian security.
Russia’s U.N. envoy Vasily Nebenzya has dismissed reports about Trump team’s Ukraine peace proposals as uninteresting and vague. The reported plan would delay Ukraine’s NATO membership by 20 years in exchange for Western arms and European peacekeepers. Putin restated Russia’s demands on December 19, including full occupation of Luhansk, Donetsk, Zaporizhzhia and Kherson regions and blocking Ukraine’s NATO membership. Both Nebenzya and Foreign Minister Lavrov indicated Russia will reject any plan that doesn’t meet these demands, despite Trump’s claims he could achieve peace quickly.
A recent poll by the Kyiv International Institute of Sociology shows 38% of Ukrainians would consider territorial concessions to end the war quickly while preserving independence, up from 32% in October 2024 and 19% in December 2023. In contrast, 51% oppose giving up any territory, down from 58% in October and 74% in December 2023. The survey, conducted in December 2024 across Ukraine-controlled areas, comes as President Zelensky acknowledges Ukraine lacks the military strength to retake all occupied territories and suggests diplomatic solutions may be needed for some regions like Crimea. Russia currently occupies about 20% of Ukrainian territory in the east and south.
Situation On The Land, Sea, and Air in Ukraine
Russian forces continue training on the military’s official “Glaz/Groza” combat coordination software at St. Petersburg’s Mikhailovsky Military Artillery Academy, according to state TV network Zvezda. However, Russian troops on the frontline in Ukraine largely bypass this official system, instead relying on social media apps for battlefield communications. Military observers note the defense ministry has not rolled out the official software widely enough for troops to adopt it.
Russian opposition media outlets Astra and Mobilization News report that officers in military unit 29593 are seizing soldiers’ phones and demanding bribes of 20,000-50,000 rubles ($181-$452) from injured troops seeking hospital treatment. The officers allegedly transfer wounded soldiers to a possibly fictitious “unit 44744” to conceal high casualty rates. This follows previous reports of Russian commanders abusing and extorting their troops, suggesting ongoing issues with command discipline and training.
Ukrainian Operations in the Russian Federation – Initiative Russia
Ukrainian and Russian forces clashed in Ukraine’s Kursk Oblast, with fighting reported near several settlements including Leonidovo, Aleksandriya, Viktorovka, Nikolaevo-Darino, Kruglenkoye, and Kurilovka. While Russian sources claimed advances near Leonidovo and Aleksandriya, these claims remain unconfirmed, and Russian forces have reportedly not gained full control of the area.
Kharkiv Front – Initiative Russia
Russian forces attacked near Vovchansk northeast of Kharkiv City without confirmed advances. Ukrainian forces reportedly launched counterattacks near Lyptsi, while Russian reconnaissance groups are operating along Ukraine’s northern border during poor weather conditions, though reportedly with reduced training levels.
Luhansk Front – Initiative Russia
Russian forces continued attacks along the Kupyansk-Svatove-Kreminna line, launching ground assaults near multiple settlements including Zapadne, Dvorichna, Zahryzove, Lozova, Nadiya, Kruhlyakivka, Makiivka, Terny, Cherneshchyna, and Hryhorivka, as well as in the Serebryanske forest. While Russian sources claimed advances across the Zherebets River to Ivanivka, these claims remain unconfirmed.
Donetsk Front – Initiative Russia
Siversk
Russian forces attacked near Bilohorivka northeast of Siversk but did not gain any confirmed territory.
Chasiv Yar
Russian forces launched attacks on Chasiv Yar and nearby settlements of Bila Hora, Predtechyne, and Stupochky, but failed to gain ground. Ukrainian forces reportedly launched counterattacks near Chasiv Yar’s central Refractory Plant.
Toretsk
Russian forces attacked multiple locations around Toretsk, including Dyliivka, Shcherbynivka, and Niu York, but made no confirmed advances. Ukrainian reports indicate Russian forces are using new tactics: soldiers wearing civilian clothes, small infantry groups of 2-20 personnel, and advanced drones with fiber optic cables that can evade Ukrainian electronic countermeasures. These drones reportedly have a range exceeding 10 kilometers. Russian forces are primarily conducting infantry assaults, especially during poor weather conditions.
Pokrovsk
Russian forces made confirmed advances near Pokrovsk gaining ground north of Novohrodivka and along the T-05-15 highway near Shevchenko. They launched attacks on multiple settlements including Vodyane Druhe, Baranivka, Myrolyubivka, Promin, Lysivka, Dachenske, Zelene, Novyi Trud, Pishchane, Zvirove, Solone, Kotlyne, Uspenivka, and Novovasylivka. Russian sources claim additional advances near Zvirove, Vozdvyzhenka, Vovkove, and Nadezhdynka, though these remain unconfirmed.
Ukrainian military observer Kostyantyn Mashovets reports that Russia is repositioning forces around Pokrovsk. Combined Russian forces are attacking toward Kotlyne to cut the T-04-06 highway, while tank units are conducting operations near Novovasylivka, Novoyeliyzavetivka, Uspenivka, and Nadezhdynka. This shift suggests Russia is temporarily focusing less on encircling Pokrovsk and instead pushing westward toward the Donetsk-Dnipropetrovsk border.
Kurakhove
Russian forces reportedly gained ground near Kurakhove with Ukrainian forces withdrawing from the Kurakhivske Thermal Power Plant and Russian forces capturing Shevchenko. Russian forces attacked multiple locations including Kurakhove, Slovyanka, Petropavlivka, and Dachne.
Andriivka
Russian forces advanced near Vuhledar with confirmed gains south of Rozlyv. They conducted attacks near Yantarne, Kostiantynopil, Kostiantynopolske, and Rozlyv. Russian units are attacking near the Sukhi Yaly River. Additional Russian forces are active near Ulakly. A claimed Russian advance of 600 meters toward Andriivka remains unconfirmed.
Velyka Novosilka
Russian forces attacked near Velyka Novosilka, Vremivka, and Novosilka, but made no confirmed advances. Ukrainian forces are reportedly conducting periodic counterattacks in the area. A Ukrainian brigade spokesperson reported that Russian forces are focusing on disrupting Ukrainian supply lines to Kurakhove and Velyka Novosilka, with small infantry groups probing contested areas to approach Ukrainian positions.
Zaporizhia Front – Initiative Russia
Russian forces launched attacks near Robotyne in western Zaporizhia Oblast targeting the settlements of Bilohirya and Novoandriivka, but they failed to make any confirmed territorial gains.
Kherson (Dnipro River) Front – Initiative Russia
Russian forces conducted attacks near Kherson City around Kozatskyi Island.
Ukraine News
Russian forces launched a major drone attack against Ukraine overnight, sending 93 Shahed and other drones from multiple Russian regions. Ukrainian forces intercepted 60 drones across nine oblasts, while 26 decoy drones were disrupted. The attacks damaged private enterprises and homes in Donetsk and Chernihiv oblasts, with additional damage from drone debris in Kyiv Oblast, including administrative buildings of the Ukrainian parliament.
President Zelensky clarified that Ukrainian law prohibits holding presidential and parliamentary elections during martial law, which can only be lifted when the immediate threat to Ukraine’s independence and territorial integrity ends. Russian officials, including Putin, have misrepresented these legal requirements to falsely claim Zelensky’s presidency is illegitimate because Ukraine did not hold elections in 2024 during the ongoing war.
In 2024, Ukraine achieved significant humanitarian milestones, securing the return of 1,042 children from Russian-occupied territories and Russia, along with 3,956 Ukrainian soldiers through prisoner exchanges. A notable reunion occurred between POW Natalia and her son Dmytro after a two-year separation. The year ended with a major exchange on December 30, bringing home 189 Ukrainian soldiers and civilians. The Ukrainian Parliament’s Human Rights Office also helped establish legislation granting citizenship to foreign fighters defending Ukraine.
Slovakia’s Prime Minister Robert Fico threatened to cut support for Ukrainian refugees after Ukraine ended Russian gas transit through its territory on January 1, 2025, when the contract expired. Fico, who recently met with Vladimir Putin in Moscow, claims Slovakia faces losses exceeding €500 million annually from this decision. He’s demanding either transit restoration or compensation, while offering to serve as a negotiation intermediary between Moscow and Kyiv. This situation highlights growing tensions between Ukraine and certain European nations still dependent on Russian gas, potentially impacting regional solidarity and refugee support during the ongoing conflict.
Ukraine’s Navy successfully managed the passage of 9,061 civilian vessels through its maritime corridor in 2024, with 4,651 arrivals and 4,410 departures, enabling the export of 74.4 million tons of cargo. The corridor, established in August 2023 after Russia ended the grain deal, has become a vital trade route despite risks from Russian attacks and naval mines. Navy Commander Neizhpapa reported no mine explosions in ports due to naval protection efforts, though threats persist, as evidenced by a September Russian missile attack on a cargo ship carrying Ukrainian wheat near Romanian waters.
According to Ukrainian officials, over 50,000 Russians have sought information about missing soldiers through Ukraine’s “I Want to Find” project, while Russia’s Defense Ministry has received 48,000 DNA test applications from families searching for their loved ones. The project, an offshoot of Ukraine’s “I Want to Live” surrender hotline, suggests the actual number of missing Russian soldiers could be much higher, as many families fear making inquiries. Ukrainian officials report that many deceased Russian soldiers remain unrecovered on Ukrainian territory, with Russia showing limited interest in identifying or recovering remains. Ukraine’s Armed Forces estimate total Russian military losses at 793,250 troops since February 2022, highlighting the human cost of the ongoing conflict.
Innocent Victims Of War
The casualty count of civilians in the past 24 hours: (Russian War Crimes)
DEATHS: 3 INJURIES: 17
A Russian ballistic missile struck a residential area in Chernihiv, Ukraine, killing one person and wounding four others. The attack damaged several apartment buildings on the city’s outskirts.
A falling Russian drone killed a young truck driver in Kyiv Oblast, and drone debris sparked a fire at a house near Bila Tserkva, injuring a 16-year-old boy and another person. Near Fastiv, a woman was also injured in the attack.
A Russian attack killed one person in Chasiv Yar, a town in Donetsk Oblast.
Russian forces attacked 39 settlements across Kherson Oblast, including the city of Kherson, leaving ten people wounded.
The aftermath of Russia’s ballistic missile attack on Chernihiv. (Chernihiv Oblast Governor Vyacheslav Chaus / Telegram)
The aftermath of a Russian drone attack on Kyiv Oblast. (State Emergency Service)
Ukraine Mobilization and Defense Industrial Base
Ukraine has launched an investigation into suspected desertion and leadership problems in the French-trained 155th “Anne of Kyiv” Mechanized Brigade near Pokrovsk. The unit, consisting of about 5,800 troops with less than 2,000 trained in France, was equipped with French AMX10 vehicles, Caesar howitzers, and German Leopard tanks. According to media investigations, the brigade faced significant challenges including high desertion rates and organizational issues from its inception. Between March and November, over 1,700 soldiers allegedly went AWOL. The unit’s commander, Dmytro Riumshin, was dismissed in December along with other officers. The State Bureau of Investigation’s probe is ongoing, with no preliminary results yet reported.
Polish officials and Ukraine’s Embassy in Warsaw have warned about fake military draft notices being sent to Ukrainian men living in Poland. The fraudulent letters, falsely attributed to Poland’s Office for Foreigners, threaten recipients with legal consequences and extradition if they evade military service. Both Polish and Ukrainian authorities have confirmed these notices are fake. While Poland has discussed ways to encourage military-age Ukrainian refugees to join the fight, including potentially ending social benefits, the EU has rejected any forced deportation of Ukrainian men for military service. Poland has instead established the Ukrainian Legion, a volunteer unit that allows Ukrainian men in Poland to serve and then return.
Denmark pioneered a new funding model for Ukraine’s defense industry, becoming the first country to directly purchase arms from Ukrainian manufacturers. Ukraine aims to raise over $1 billion in 2025 to expand this model, with plans to increase domestic defense production to $30 billion. The program has already shown success with the production of 18 Bohdana howitzers funded by Copenhagen, and Ukraine has received over 150 million euros from Denmark, France, and Lithuania to support its defense industry.
Ukrainian leaders are emphasizing expanded military production capabilities. Prime Minister Denys Shmyhal announced plans to produce 3,000 cruise missiles and “drone-missiles” plus 30,000 long-range drones in 2025. The country is also working to mass-produce the “Trembita” cruise missile, which has a 90-mile range and costs $10,000 per unit. Ukraine’s defense industry aims to increase production capacity to $30 billion worth of goods and attract $1 billion in foreign investment in 2025.
Ukrainian steel company Metinvest has developed armored protection for the Patriot air defense system’s control module. The new 2.6-ton armor shield, made of Ukrainian steel, consists of nearly 200 elements with plates up to 8mm thick and is designed to protect both crews and equipment from debris without impacting system performance. Ukraine currently operates Patriots received from Germany, the U.S., and Romania, along with additional launchers and missiles from other allies. Metinvest also produces armor for various tanks including T-64, T-72, M1 Abrams, Bradley fighting vehicles, and is preparing shields for Leopard 2 tanks.
Ukraine’s Allies
The Ukraine Defense Contact Group (Ramstein format) will hold its first summit of 2025 on January 9 at Ramstein Airbase in Germany, marking the group’s 25th meeting since its formation in April 2022, after being postponed in October 2024 due to Hurricane Milton. U.S. Secretary of Defense Lloyd Austin will host the 57-nation alliance meeting, which includes all NATO members and follows their previous gathering on September 6, 2024.
Russia News
A Moscow court has ordered Yandex, Russia’s largest search engine, to remove or blur aerial photos and maps of Rosneft’s Ryazan Oil Refinery from public access, marking the first time Russian courts have legally mandated hiding information about strategic defense facilities that Ukraine has successfully targeted, as the facility, which supplies materials to the Russian military, was struck four times by Ukrainian drones in 2024, causing infrastructure damage. The court ruled that public access to the refinery’s details undermines Russia’s defense capabilities and military supply chain, marking the first instance where Yandex has been required to remove strategic facility information from public view.
Outgoing U.S. Secretary of State Antony Blinken revealed that China may have prevented Russia from using nuclear weapons during the Ukraine war. Blinken said there was evidence China told Russia “don’t go there” when Putin considered nuclear escalation. China has been Russia’s main ally since the 2022 invasion, though it denies military support. While Putin recently expanded Russia’s nuclear strike criteria, U.S. intelligence suggests a nuclear strike remains unlikely. This revelation underscores the complex diplomatic relationships affecting world peace, particularly China’s apparent role in preventing nuclear escalation despite its alliance with Russia.
Russian War Losses (Today/Total)
Troops +1510
794760 |
Tanks +2
9679 |
Artillery +23
21578 |
Arm. Veh. +23
20093 |
Aircraft 
369 |
Heli +1
331 |
Ships
28 |
Russia Mobilization and Defense Industrial Base
Russia has recruited between 140,000 and 180,000 prisoners for its war against Ukraine as of November 2024, according to Ukraine’s Foreign Intelligence Service. The recruitment, which began in summer 2022 through the Wagner mercenary company and later continued directly under the Russian Defense Ministry, has reportedly halved Russia’s prison population compared to 2014. As of January 1, Russia has eliminated the one-time payment of $3,524 previously offered to prisoners who signed up to fight, with prisoner soldiers reportedly earning significantly less than regular Russian troops.
Russia’s Allies
A Belarusian monitoring group reported 395 Russian drones entered Belarusian airspace in 2024, with 145 in December alone.
Source Material
Institute for the Study of War – understandingwar.org
The Kyiv Independent – kyivindependent.com
Kyiv Post – kyivpost.com