Summary of the day: The Islamic State’s Northern Caucasus branch reportedly conducted coordinated attacks on religious and law enforcement targets in Dagestan. The Russian Ministry of Defense accused Ukraine of using short-range ATACMS missiles to strike Sevastopol, prompting criticism from Russian military bloggers over inadequate defenses. Ukrainian forces successfully hit a Russian command post in Belgorod Oblast. In recent developments, Russian forces captured Shumy and made advances near Donetsk City and Robotyne. President Putin signed a law transferring Cossack and Naval Cadet Corps to the Russian Ministry of Defense’s control.
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Beyond Ukraine – March Towards World War
Milorad Dodik, President of Republika Srpska in Bosnia and Herzegovina, accused the US of interfering in the country’s internal affairs. This came in response to US Ambassador Michael Murphy’s criticism of Dodik for worsening the political crisis and promoting the idea of Republika Srpska’s “peaceful separation.” Dodik’s statements align with ongoing efforts, supported by Russia, to challenge the 1995 Dayton Accords that ended the Bosnian War.
The Russian Foreign Ministry continued to accuse other countries of human rights violations, this time targeting Australia. They alleged xenophobia, racism, and “Russophobia” against Russian citizens in Australia. However, these accusations ignore Russia’s own human rights issues, including mistreatment of migrants and ethnic groups, as well as repressions in Russia and occupied Ukraine. This appears to be an attempt to deflect attention from Russia’s actions in its war against Ukraine.
Situation On The Land, Sea, and Air in Ukraine
Ukrainian forces reportedly struck a Russian military command post in Nekhoteevka, Belgorod Oblast, near the Russia-Ukraine border. The Ukrainian General Staff announced the strike, which reportedly caused secondary explosions at the target site. This command post was likely involved in overseeing Russian operations north of Kharkiv City, given its proximity to the front line.
Russia accused Ukraine of launching ATACMS missiles at Sevastopol in occupied Crimea. The Russian Ministry of Defense claimed to have intercepted four out of five missiles, with one deviating due to air defense and causing civilian casualties. Russian sources reported explosions in several Crimean locations. Sevastopol’s occupation governor claimed four deaths and 151 injuries. Ukraine has not confirmed the strike. Russia blamed the US for civilian casualties, likely to discourage further military aid to Ukraine. The use of ATACMS with cluster munitions by Ukraine remains unverified.
Russian military bloggers criticized authorities for inadequate protection of civilians during the reported strike on Sevastopol. They pointed out the lack of air raid sirens and insufficient shelters near the beach. Critics also noted that Russia has been stationing military equipment in civilian areas of Crimea, potentially violating international humanitarian law. This practice, along with encouraging tourism to the occupied peninsula, has been criticized for putting civilians at risk. The bloggers compared the situation unfavorably to protective measures taken in Belgorod Oblast near the Ukrainian border.
Recent drone footage showed a Russian soldier executing a wounded comrade instead of providing aid, highlighting the brutal culture within the Russian military. This incident, along with reports of mistreatment of wounded soldiers by commanders in the Donetsk People’s Republic units, demonstrates a severe lack of discipline and disregard for human life within Russian forces. These actions indicate poor leadership, low morale, and a callous attitude towards soldiers’ welfare, which are significant problems in the Russian military.
Kharkiv Front – Initiative Russia
Ukrainian forces reportedly counterattacked north and northeast of Kharkiv City, while Russian forces continued their offensive operations. Russian sources claim to have repelled Ukrainian attacks near Hlyboke and Vovchansk. The Ukrainian military reported ongoing fighting in and around Vovchansk, and Russian glide bomb strikes on Lyptsi. Ukrainian officials stated that Russia is attempting to withdraw combat-degraded units from the Vovchansk area due to high losses.
Luhansk Front – Initiative Russia
Russian forces continued attacks along the Kupyansk-Svatove-Kreminna line, without confirmed advances. A Russian source claimed progress near Torske, west of Kreminna. Ukrainian reports indicate Russian attacks in multiple locations northeast and southeast of Kupyansk, west of Svatove, and around Kreminna. Fighting continues in the Serebryanske forest area southwest of Kreminna.
Donetsk Front – Initiative Russia
Siversk
Russian forces continued attacks in the Siversk area, with no confirmed advances. A Russian source claimed significant progress in Rozdolivka, but this remains unverified. Ukrainian reports indicate Russian assaults near Verkhnokamyanske, Spirne, and Vyimka.
Chasiv Yar
Russian forces continued attacks near Chasiv Yar, with no confirmed changes to the frontline. Russian sources claimed advances in eastern Chasiv Yar and crossing the Siverskyi Donets-Donbas canal, but these claims lack visual evidence. Ukrainian reports indicate ongoing Russian assaults near Hryhorivka, Ivanivske, Klishchiivka, and Andriivka in the vicinity of Chasiv Yar.
Toretsk
Russian sources claim further advances in the Toretsk area, particularly in eastern Pivnichne. However, these claims are unconfirmed, and there are conflicting reports about the extent of Russian progress. Russian forces continue to attack between Shyroka Balka and Niu York, south of Toretsk.
Ukrainian military observer Kostyantyn Mashovets confirmed that Russian forces recently captured Shumy and advanced to the outskirts of Pivnichne, both near Toretsk. Russian troops reportedly seized parts of northeastern Pivnichne and are attempting to secure positions in nearby forest areas. The total area of Russian advance is estimated at about 2-2.3 km deep and 3.5-3.6 km wide. Mashovets suggested that Russia may intensify attacks in this direction to support operations near Chasiv Yar or northwest of Avdiivka.
Avdiivka
Russian sources claim new advances northwest and west of Avdiivka, including the capture of Novooleksandrivka and Yasnobrodivka. They also report progress in Sokil and near Yevhenivka. However, these claims remain unconfirmed. Russian forces continue attacks in multiple locations around Avdiivka, including northwest, west, and southwest of the city.
Southwest of Donetsk City
Russian forces made a small advance in western Krasnohorivka, west of Donetsk City. Russian sources claim additional progress southwest of Novomykhailivka and south of Kostyantynivka, but these are unconfirmed. Russian attacks continue west and southwest of Donetsk City, including near Heorhiivka and Paraskoviivka.
Zaporizhia Front – Initiative Russia
Zaporizhia-Donetsk Border Area
A Russian source claims that Russian forces repelled Ukrainian counterattacks north of Staromayorske, in the Donetsk-Zaporizhia border area. Russian naval infantry units are reportedly operating near Prechystivka, while motorized rifle units are positioned near Vuhledar, both southeast of Velyka Novosilka.
Zaporizhia Line
Russian forces have made a recent advance northeast of Robotyne in western Zaporizhia Oblast, as evidenced by geolocated footage from June 22. Fighting continues in the area, particularly near Robotyne and Mala Tokmachka.
Kherson (Dnipro River) Front – Initiative None
Fighting continues in eastern Kherson Oblast, including near Krynky and on Dnipro River delta islands. Russian motorized rifle units are reportedly active in this area.
Ukraine News
Russian forces launched a limited missile attack on Ukraine overnight. They fired three Kalibr cruise missiles from the Sea of Azov, with Ukrainian forces intercepting two over Kyiv Oblast. Falling debris damaged civilian infrastructure in Kyiv Oblast. Another cruise missile, aimed at Odesa Oblast, reportedly lost functionality over the Black Sea.
Since early June, Russian forces have intensified glide bomb attacks on Ukraine, with over 2,400 strikes reported. Kharkiv City and Kharkiv Oblast have been particularly targeted, receiving about 700 of these strikes. Recent attacks hit civilian areas in Kharkiv City, as well as Toretsk and Kostyantynivka in Donetsk Oblast. Russian sources claim they are using more advanced modifications of glide bombs that are harder for Ukrainian forces to intercept.
Ukraine’s Allies
South Korea has taken a firm stance against Russia following increased cooperation between Russia and North Korea. South Korean officials stated that their military support to Ukraine will depend on the extent of Russian-North Korean military collaboration. This comes after reports of significant North Korean explosives shipments to Russia. South Korea is now considering sending artillery shells and air defense systems to Ukraine, despite Russian threats. This shift in South Korean policy suggests that Russian attempts to deter Seoul from supporting Ukraine have been unsuccessful.
Russia News
The Islamic State’s Northern Caucasus branch allegedly conducted coordinated attacks on religious and law enforcement targets in Dagestan, Russia. Shootings occurred at a church and synagogue in Derbent, and a police post in Makhachkala. Russian authorities implemented a counter-terrorism operation, killing five attackers and wounding six. The attacks resulted in multiple casualties, including law enforcement officials and civilians. Two suspects, reportedly sons of a local district head, were identified and killed. The situation remained tense with ongoing operations in Makhachkala.
A suspected Islamic State affiliate, Wilayat Kavkaz, claimed responsibility for conducting the coordinated attacks in Dagestan, Russia. An IS-linked media outlet praised the attack without directly claiming responsibility. Experts had previously warned of increased Wilayat Kavkaz activity in the region. Despite this, some Russian officials continue to baselessly blame Ukraine and NATO, potentially distracting from effective counterterrorism efforts against the actual threat posed by extremist groups in the North Caucasus.
Just before the one-year anniversary of the Wagner Group’s mutiny, Russian security services arrested two former employees of Wagner-affiliated Patriot media holding. Ilya Gorbunov, a former manager allegedly involved in promoting the mutiny online, and Kirill Metelev, an editor accused of posting defamatory statements, were detained. While officially charged with extortion, the timing of these arrests suggests a possible connection to the Wagner mutiny anniversary, despite Russian state media’s attempts to downplay this link.
Russian Mobilization and Defense Industrial Base
President Putin signed a law transferring control of the Cossack Cadet Corps and Russian Naval Cadet Corps from the Ministry of Education to the Ministry of Defense. This change formalizes the military’s existing influence over these institutions. The move is part of Russia’s efforts to strengthen its military reserve system, particularly by integrating Cossack organizations. This shift aims to create a larger pool of well-educated recruits for long-term military needs, encompassing all 31 Cossack Cadet Corps in Russia.
An investigation by Bloomberg reveals a significant increase in crimes committed by Russian servicemembers returning from Ukraine. In 2023, crimes by servicemembers rose by over 20%, with notable increases in violent crimes, theft, and drug-related incidents. Particularly concerning is a 62% rise in indecent assaults against minors. Experts suggest this trend is typical for countries at war and may continue as the conflict persists. The rise in crime is partly attributed to untreated post-traumatic stress disorder (PTSD) among returning soldiers, which Russian medical systems are ill-equipped to handle. Russian officials have also expressed concerns about violent crimes committed by ex-convicts who fought in Ukraine and have now returned to society.
Rostec, a Russian state-owned defense company, announced that it’s equipping BMP-2 and BMD-4 armored vehicles with “Nakidka” camouflage systems. These systems are designed to reduce the vehicles’ thermal signatures, making them harder to detect by Ukrainian drones using infrared sensors. This technology was previously used to protect Russian tanks against anti-tank guided missiles.
Russian Narrative and Propaganda
Russian military bloggers amplified criticisms of Ukrainian Lieutenant General Yurii Sodol from a Ukrainian official.
Source Material
Institute for the Study of War – understandingwar.org