Summary of the day: Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orban continues to position himself as a potential mediator to end the war in Ukraine, despite Putin’s rejection of serious negotiations. This effort likely aims to undermine European support for Ukraine. Meanwhile, Ukrainian forces struck energy infrastructure in Krasnodar Krai with drones overnight. Iran and Russia signed a bank agreement enabling trade in their respective currencies. Russian forces made advances near Kupyansk, Siversk, Toretsk, and Avdiivka, while the Russian government continues efforts to isolate its population from information it deems contrary to state interests and ideology.
What Can I Do To Help Ukraine? This is a question I receive all the time. We at Transform Ukraine are building longer-term housing for internally displaced Ukrainians. Visit Rebuild Ukraine for how you can assist in housing a Ukrainian family displaced by the war.
Beyond Ukraine – March Towards World War
A Kremlin-aligned Russian milblogger criticized Armenia’s cooperation with the European Union and the United States, claiming it threatens Armenia’s security and sovereignty. This commentary is part of a broader effort to undermine Armenian Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan and discourage Armenia’s pivot away from Russia.
The Kremlin is citing supposed discrimination against Russians abroad as a pretext for potential escalations with Western nations. On July 5, the Russian Ministry of Foreign Affairs reported that Russia and Belarus have submitted a joint report to the OSCE, claiming human rights violations against Russians by Western countries. Additionally, on July 3, Russia’s parliament suspended its participation in the OSCE Parliamentary Assembly.
A11` Kremlin-affiliated ultranationalist milblogger expressed worries about Turkey potentially using its future membership in the Shanghai Cooperation Organization (SCO) to boost the Turkic Council and expand Turkish influence in Central Asia and the South Caucasus. This concern reflects apprehension among some Russian ultranationalists about the composition of the “Eurasian security architecture” proposed by Russian President Vladimir Putin.
Belarus is strengthening its relationship with China. The Belarusian Ministry of Defense announced that Chinese military personnel had arrived in Belarus for joint counterterrorism exercises scheduled from July 8 to 19. Concurrently, Belarusian Foreign Minister Maxim Ryzhenkov is in China from July 6 to 9, meeting with key Chinese officials, including Foreign Minister Wang Yi.
Peace Talks
Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orban is positioning himself as a potential mediator for peace in Ukraine, despite Putin’s rejection of negotiations. Orban’s efforts, including recent visits to Kyiv and Moscow, seem aimed at shifting Western focus towards peace talks and away from military support for Ukraine. This aligns with his consistent opposition to EU military assistance to Ukraine. Bulgarian Prime Minister Dimitar Glavchev and Turkish Foreign Minister Hakan Fidan have also made calls for peace negotiations, emphasizing compliance with international law and the need to prioritize diplomacy.
Putin has rejected ceasefire negotiations, demanding Ukrainian capitulation and territorial concessions. Meanwhile, Ukraine has been working with international partners to establish conditions for future peace talks on terms acceptable to Ukraine and its allies. Many countries, including Hungary, Turkey, and Bulgaria, have signed a communique supporting Ukraine’s sovereignty. Ukraine’s ability to pursue peace is tied to its success in liberating territory, which depends on continued Western military support. Orban’s calls for negotiations differ from Ukraine’s peace efforts and may undermine support for Ukraine.
Situation On The Land, Sea, and Air in Ukraine
Russian forces reportedly conducted sabotage and reconnaissance activities in northeastern Ukraine, entering Oleksandrivka and Popivka in Sumy Oblast. A Russian source claimed Ukrainian forces are no longer present in these settlements. Russian forces also reportedly seized positions in Sotynytskyi Kozachok, though this remains unconfirmed. These activities likely aim to draw and fix Ukrainian forces along a wider front in the border area, possibly in preparation for future offensive operations. Ukrainian President Zelensky previously warned of Russian forces concentrating near the border northwest of Kharkiv City. These movements could indicate potential offensives towards Zolochiv and Bohodukhiv or along the P-45 highway connecting Bohodukhiv with Sumy City.
Ukrainian forces reportedly attacked a Russian military camp on the southwest coast near Urzuf, causing unspecified casualties. However, there is no confirmed evidence of this strike.
Kharkiv Front – Initiative None
Fighting continued north and northeast of Kharkiv City on July 6, with no confirmed frontline changes. Russian forces conducted offensive operations near Lyptsi, Hlyboke, Starytsya, and Vovchansk. Ukrainian sources reported Russian attempts to regroup units in the Vovchansk area by moving individual personnel, possibly due to vulnerability to Ukrainian reconnaissance fire. Russian sources claimed Ukrainian counterattacks in several areas. Russian forces are reportedly operating in Hlyboke, while a battalion of the 7th Motorized Rifle Regiment was reportedly destroyed near Lyptsi in June.
A critical Russian milblogger highlighted Russia’s lack of progress in the Vovchansk direction, citing coordination issues and failure to create a 15-kilometer buffer zone. The milblogger claimed that Russian forces in Vovchansk have already suffered a third of the casualties incurred during the four-month Avdiivka campaign, suggesting significant losses for a small border town operation. The blogger directly blamed Russian Northern Grouping of Forces and LMD Commander Colonel General Alexander Lapin for the slow progress of offensive operations in Vovchansk.
Luhansk Front – Initiative Russia
Russian forces made a small advance east of Pishchane, southeast of Kupyansk, during a mechanized assault. Their further progress was reportedly halted by Ukrainian minefields and artillery fire. Russian forces continued attacks along the Kupyansk-Svatove-Kreminna line, including near Synkivka, Petropavlivka, Stelmakhivka, Nevske, Makiivka, Hrekivka, Terny, Torske, and the Serebryanske forest area.
Donetsk Front – Initiative Russia
Siversk
Russian forces advanced in central Spirne, southeast of Siversk, with elements of the 123rd Motorized Rifle Brigade raising a flag there. Claims about complete Russian control of Spirne are disputed. Russian attacks continued near Bilohorivka and Vyimka.
Chasiv Yar
Russian forces continued attacks near Chasiv Yar on July 5-6, without confirmed frontline changes. They attacked within eastern Chasiv Yar and near Kalynivka, Ivanivske, Klishchiivka, and Andriivka. A Russian source claimed they’re trying to establish positions along the east bank of the Siverskyi-Donets Donbas Canal after capturing Kanal Microraion.
Toretsk
Russian forces advanced in the Toretsk direction on July 6. They made confirmed progress into southwestern Niu York. Russian sources claimed advances in Druzhba, Pivnichne, and further into Niu York, with one claiming half of Pivdenne was captured. Russian forces reportedly pressured Ukrainian positions near Zalizna railway station in southern Niu York and continued attacks near Zalizne.
Avdiivka
Russian forces likely captured Sokil, northwest of Avdiivka, with footage showing Russian troops raising a flag in western Sokil. They also advanced west of Sokil towards Voskhod and made progress in eastern Karlivka. Russian sources claimed advances in Yevhenivka, Novooleksandrivka, and towards Lozuvatske and Novoselivka Persha. Fighting continued in multiple locations around Avdiivka. The Ukrainian General Staff reported that Russian forces are focusing on advancing towards Novooleksandrivka and Novoselivka Persha, conducting at least 20 attacks in these areas.
Southwest of Donetsk City
Russian forces conducted offensive operations around Donetsk City, but no confirmed frontline changes were reported. Claims of Russian advancements near Krasnohorivka remain unverified. Additionally, Ukrainian forces reportedly failed to counterattack successfully in Paraskoviivka. Russian military units continue operations in the area.
Zaporizhia Front – Initiative Russia
Zaporizhia-Donetsk Border Area
There were ongoing positional battles in the area near the Donetsk-Zaporizhia border, specifically around Staromayorske, Urozhaine, and Makarivka.
Zaporizhia Line
Russian troops launched ground assaults in western Zaporizhia Oblast, targeting areas near Robotyne and surrounding locations.
Kherson (Dnipro River) Front – Initiative None
Russian forces carried out ground attacks on the eastern side of Kherson Oblast, including areas northwest of Kozachi Laheri and on Dnipro River islands.
Ukraine News
Russian forces launched drone and missile attacks across Ukraine. Out of 27 Shahed drones launched from Crimea and Kursk, Ukrainian defenses intercepted 24 across multiple regions, affecting Dnipropetrovsk, Poltava, and others. In Sumy Oblast, drone attacks damaged energy infrastructure. Additionally, Ukraine’s Southern Air Command downed five Russian cruise missiles on July 5. Russia also claimed to have hit a Ukrainian air defense system in Poltava Oblast, destroying equipment and personnel.
Between June 29 and July 5, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky reported that Russia launched over 600 glide bombs, 60 Shahed drones, and 40 missiles at targets across Ukraine.
Russia News
Ukrainian forces conducted drone strikes on energy infrastructure in Krasnodar Krai overnight. Russian sources reported shooting down drones near Leningradskaya, Yeysk, and Pavlovskaya. Falling debris damaged a cell phone tower in Yeysk and caused a fire at an oil depot in Pavlovskaya. A fuel tank in Leningradskaya was also struck. Footage shows fires at fuel tanks in Leningradskaya and at a Lukoil oil depot in Pavlovskaya.
Russian Mobilization and Defense Industrial Base
Tatarstan has doubled its monetary incentive for contract soldiers, raising the one-time payment to 1.05 million rubles (about $12,000) for those who sign up by July 31. Previously, the payment was 505,000 rubles (about $5,700).
Russia’s Allies
Iran and Russia signed a banking agreement, allowing trade in rubles and rials. The central bank heads of both countries also signed a memorandum of understanding for unspecified joint measures. This move aims to facilitate trade between the two countries while potentially bypassing international sanctions.
Russian Narrative and Propaganda
The Russian government is intensifying efforts to control internet access for its citizens. The federal censor Rozkomnadzor recently blocked 25 mobile VPN services, adding to the 150 VPN services restricted since March 2024. The Russian Federal Security Service (FSB) has also demanded that telecom operators prohibit clients from using foreign and domestic Voice over Internet Protocol (VoIP) services, citing fraud prevention. These measures aim to limit Russians’ access to information and communication channels that the government considers contrary to state interests and ideology.
Russian government ministries have approved a plan to annually review literature, art, media, and other materials for “excessive” use of foreign vocabulary. This initiative is part of broader efforts to protect Russia from “destructive information” and influences that could undermine traditional values. These actions, along with VPN bans, aim to tighten control over the Russian information space and promote nationalist values domestically.
Source Material
Institute for the Study of War – understandingwar.org