Summary of the Day:
Ukrainian forces demonstrated their growing strike capabilities today, launching a complex attack on Sevastopol using Western-provided weapons, including Neptune missiles and approximately 40 drones. The operation targeted the Nakhimov Higher Naval School and Belbek Airfield, though Russia claims to have intercepted 25 drones over Crimea and the Black Sea. On the ground, Ukrainian forces advanced within Toretsk, while Russian forces made gains in the Pokrovsk and Kurakhove directions, as well as within Ukraine’s salient in Kursk Oblast.
In Moscow, the Russian military command issued controversial new restrictions prohibiting soldiers from using personal vehicles in combat zones. The policy, which threatens to send violators to frontline assault units as punishment, has drawn criticism from military bloggers who warn it could severely impact frontline supply operations and humanitarian aid delivery.
Diplomatically, Russian President Vladimir Putin met with Kazakh President Kassym-Jomart Tokayev in Astana, signing 19 cooperation agreements aimed at strengthening bilateral ties. Domestically, the Kremlin continues promoting its “Time of Heroes” program, designed to militarize Russian government at all levels, in what appears to be an effort to prevent public opposition to the war like the “Afghan syndrome” that followed the Soviet-Afghan War.
Picture of the Day:
The aftermath of Russian attacks against the Nikopol district of Dnipropetrovsk Oblast, Ukraine. (Governor Serhii Lysak/Telegram)
Beyond Ukraine – The March Towards World War
Russia’s declaration of a US missile defense base in Poland as a “priority target” marks a significant escalation in East-West tensions and raises new concerns about European stability. This confrontational stance, coming from Russian Foreign Ministry spokesperson Maria Zakharova, threatens to further deteriorate NATO-Russia relations and increases the risk of military conflict in Europe. The situation is particularly sensitive given the base’s proximity to Russian territory, just 143 miles from the border. While White House National Security Advisor John Kirby has invoked NATO’s collective defense commitment (Article 5), the exchange highlights the growing militarization of Eastern Europe and the fragile state of global peace. This diplomatic crisis represents another point of dangerous friction between nuclear powers at a time when international security mechanisms are already strained.
Russia’s November 26 expulsion of a British diplomat and ban of 30 prominent British officials and journalists, including Deputy Prime Minister Angela Rayner and Finance Minister Rachel Reeves, marks a dangerous deterioration in East-West relations, coming in response to the U.K.’s support of Ukraine’s use of Storm Shadow missiles against Russian targets and British sanctions on Russia’s oil tanker fleet. This latest confrontation between nuclear powers comes at a particularly sensitive time, as tensions are further inflamed by discussions about potential nuclear weapon transfers to Ukraine, with Kremlin spokesperson Dmitry Peskov issuing warnings about escalation. The mutual accusations of espionage, “malicious” behavior, and Russia’s citations of British “Russophobic policies” and military support for Ukraine represent a concerning breakdown in diplomatic relations between major world powers, threatening diplomatic channels crucial for maintaining international stability. This widening rift undermines prospects for peaceful resolution of the Ukraine conflict, increases the risk of miscalculation between nuclear-armed nations, and potentially weakens global peace mechanisms at a critical moment in world history.
Former MI6 chief Richard Dearlove’s stark warning that Europe is already “in an actual war” with Russia signals a dangerous escalation in global tensions. His assessment highlights how Russia’s aggressive actions extend far beyond Ukraine’s borders, encompassing hybrid warfare tactics across Europe including sabotage, cyberattacks, espionage, and election interference. The situation threatens to deteriorate further into a broader global conflict, as warned by Polish Prime Minister Donald Tusk. With Russia showing little interest in dialogue and Western unity potentially fragmenting due to upcoming U.S. leadership changes, the prospects for maintaining world peace appear increasingly precarious. This evolving conflict poses one of the most serious challenges to international stability since the Cold War, with potential ramifications for global security and peace.
The deepening alliance between Russia and Kazakhstan raises concerns for global stability, as the meeting today in Astana reveals Putin’s broader strategy to establish what he calls a “new world order.” The signing of 19 cooperation agreements strengthens Russia’s influence in Central Asia, particularly through expanded Russian educational and cultural presence in Kazakhstan. This growing partnership could help Russia evade international sanctions imposed due to the Ukraine war – a conflict notably absent from all discussions and documents. The meeting’s timing, just before a major security summit, suggests Russia is working to consolidate power in former Soviet regions while presenting itself as a stable international partner, despite its ongoing military actions in Ukraine.
The growing military alliance between Belarus and several nations raises concerns for global stability. Belarus – a key Russian ally in the Ukraine war – is expanding its military relationships with Pakistan, Vietnam, and Qatar, potentially creating a broader network of military cooperation that could challenge the current international security balance. These diplomatic moves by President Lukashenko, coming amid ongoing tensions in Eastern Europe, suggest an effort to build a stronger military coalition beyond traditional regional boundaries.
The Path to Peace
Former U.S. President Trump has nominated retired General Keith Kellogg as a special Ukrainian peace envoy, signaling potential major shifts in U.S. policy toward the Russia-Ukraine conflict. Kellogg, who previously served on the National Security Council, has proposed controversial measures including freezing front lines and halting U.S. military aid to Ukraine unless peace talks begin with Russia. The nomination comes at a critical moment as Russian forces are making their fastest gains in months, and Trump’s previous statements praising Putin and questioning U.S. aid to Ukraine have raised concerns about future support for Ukraine’s defense efforts. The proposed peace plan would remove Ukraine’s NATO prospects and seek what Trump calls a deal “good for both sides,” creating uncertainty for Ukraine’s war effort.
According to former Ukrainian Foreign Minister Dmytro Kuleba, any potential peace deal from U.S. President-elect Trump is unlikely to succeed because Putin remains committed to his full objectives in Ukraine. Kuleba warns that Trump’s approach could weaken Ukraine’s defense by reducing weapons support, potentially allowing Russian forces to advance to Dnipro, Zaporizhzhia, and Poltava. While European nations like the UK, France, and Poland have promised increased support, Kuleba criticizes Western allies for providing insufficient military aid compared to Russia’s partnerships, including North Korean troops. President Zelensky has stated Ukraine won’t recognize Russian occupation, though he suggests Crimea’s status might be resolved through diplomacy. The situation is further complicated by Germany’s upcoming elections and what Kuleba describes as the West’s lack of clear objectives in the conflict.
Situation On The Land, Sea, and Air in Ukraine
Russian military command has reportedly banned soldiers from using personal vehicles in combat zones, threatening to send violators to frontline assault groups as punishment. The order, which may have come from new Southern Military District commander Lieutenant General Alexander Sanchik, also affects volunteers who deliver military and humanitarian aid to troops. Russian military bloggers warn this restriction could severely impact frontline supply operations, as the military’s centralized distribution system may not adequately meet troops’ needs. This policy appears to be part of a broader effort since January 2023 to tighten central control over Russian forces.
Ukrainian forces launched a significant combined missile and drone attack on Sevastopol, Crimea, targeting the Nakhimov Higher Naval School and Belbek Airfield, using a mix of Neptune missiles, modified S-200 missiles, and about 40 drones. Russian-installed officials claim air defenses intercepted 25 drones over Crimea and the Black Sea, as well as two missiles and five drones over the water near the city. While pro-Ukrainian sources reported explosions and smoke was visible near both the naval school and Belbek military airfield, Russian sources deny any damage to the facilities, though these claims couldn’t be independently verified. Ukrainian military officials have not yet commented on the operation.
Ukrainian Operations in the Russian Federation – Initiative Russia
Russian forces advanced east of Nizhny Klin near Korenevo in Kursk Oblast. Footage shows a mechanized assault in the area, with additional reported advances near Darino. Multiple Russian military units, including airborne divisions and naval infantry, are conducting operations and clearing missions throughout the region.
A Ukrainian strike using French-supplied Hammer glide bombs hit a Russian Federal Security Service border outpost in Tetkino, Kursk Oblast on November 26.
Kharkiv Front – Initiative Russia
Russian forces attacked near Vovchansk and Tykhe in the Kharkiv region with additional claimed advances near Hraniv, Kozacha Lopan, and Prudyanka. Ukrainian forces reportedly recaptured positions near Lyptsi, though difficult weather is affecting military operations in the area.
Luhansk Front – Initiative Russia
Russian forces continue attacks along the Kupyansk-Svatove-Kreminna line with claimed advances near Dvorichna and ongoing attempts to cross the Oskil River near Novomlynsk. Fighting continues near Kolisnykivka and Kruhlyakivka southeast of Kupyansk. Russian forces launched unsuccessful attacks east of Torske, while Ukrainian forces report counterattacks near Kopanky. Multiple engagements were reported across the region, including near Synkivka, Zahryzove, Senkove, and the Serebryanske forest area.
Donetsk Front – Initiative Russia
Siversk
Russian forces conducted offensive operations near the settlement of Hryhorivka, northeast of Siversk. No confirmed territorial gains were reported from these attacks.
Chasiv Yar
Russian forces attacked in the Chasiv Yar area targeting Bila Hora, Stupochky, Predtechyne, and Dyliivka, but made no confirmed advances. While a Russian military blogger claimed advances northwest of Kurdyumivka, this remains unconfirmed. Russian forces have converted Bakhmut into a logistics hub using it to store ammunition, equipment, and fuel.
Toretsk
Ukrainian forces recaptured positions in central Toretsk while Russian forces continued attacks in the area, including near Dyliivka and Shcherbynivka. A Ukrainian commander reported that Russian forces are suffering approximately 100 casualties daily in their attempts to breach Toretsk’s defenses from multiple directions.
Pokrovsk
Russian forces made small advances near Pokrovsk, capturing Zhovte and gaining ground west of Krutyi Yar and in western Petrivka. They are advancing along the railway line north of Zhovte and conducting attacks toward Pushkine, Ukrainka, and Dachenske. Russian forces are also attacking near Myrolyubivka, Promin, Lysivka, Krasnyi Yar, Chumatske, Pustynka, and Novyi Trud. Ukrainian officials report that Russian forces have a manpower advantage in this area and are conducting intense attacks, primarily using infantry near Zhovte and vehicles near Pushkine.
Kurakhove
Russian forces advanced in the Kurakhove area, capturing western Berestky and reportedly controlling 60% of Kurakhove itself. They conducted attacks near Novodmytrivka, Zorya, Sontsivka, Voznesenka, Dachne, Berestky, and Dalne. Russian forces claim advances of 1.5-6 kilometers along the Solona River towards Sontsivka and Zorya, though some of these claims remain unconfirmed.
Southwest of Donetsk City (Target: Andriivka)
Russian forces attacked multiple locations around Vuhledar on November 27 without confirmed advances. They conducted operations near Romanivka, Yelyzavetivka, Katerynivka, Antonivka, Hannivka, Veselyi Hai, Sukhi Yaly, Trudove, Uspenivka, Rozlyv, and Kostiantynopolske. Multiple Russian military units are attempting to bypass Ukrainian defenses north and northwest of Vuhledar along the Uspenivka-Velyka Novosilka line.
Velyka Novosilka (formerly Zaporizhia-Donetsk Border Area)
Russian forces attacked near Velyka Novosilka, Rozdolne, Rivnopil, and Novodarivka. While Russian sources claimed to have captured Rozdolne and parts of Velyka Novosilka, these claims remain unconfirmed. Russian forces also deployed an unmanned ground vehicle in eastern Velyka Novosilka.
Zaporizhia Front – Initiative Russia
Russian forces continued attacks in western Zaporizhia Oblast without making confirmed advances, where Ukrainian forces successfully repelled a small Russian infantry assault. According to National Guard Commander Oleksandr Pivnenko, Russian forces typically deploy small infantry groups of 3-10 soldiers for assaults and reconnaissance in this area. Ukrainian military officials warn that Russia is building up troops and equipment in the area, potentially preparing for a larger offensive operation.
Kherson (Dnipro River) Front – Initiative Russia
Russian forces continued operations on the eastern bank of the Dnipro River in Kherson Oblast. Ukrainian officials report that Russian forces are training near the Antonivskyi Bridge, Kozatskyi Island, and Kruhlyk Island, while conducting reconnaissance missions to locate Ukrainian positions. Russia reportedly aims to establish a foothold on the western bank to target Kherson City and nearby settlements.
Ukraine News
A Reuters report, citing Ukrainian officials, states that the Russian Oreshnik ballistic missile that hit Dnipro City on November 21 contained multiple warheads without explosives and caused little damage.
Russia is actively using at least six Tu-160 strategic bombers against Ukraine that were originally transferred from Ukraine to Russia in 1999 as part of a deal to reduce its $275 million gas debt. According to a Radio Free Europe/Radio Liberty investigation, these bombers, along with 575 Kh-55 cruise missiles that were part of the same deal (valued at only 10% of the assets’ worth in debt relief), are now being used in attacks on Ukrainian cities and infrastructure. One such attack occurred on November 17, killing seven civilians and damaging Ukraine’s energy grid. The investigation identified specific pilots involved in these attacks, including Oleg Skytskyi, who is allegedly responsible for a missile strike that killed an RFE/RL journalist in Kyiv in 2022. The total transfer included 11 bombers and the cruise missiles.
Ukrainian security services arrested a 43-year-old man in Kyiv’s Pechersk District for attempting to kill police officers with a booby-trapped grenade. On November 17, the suspect allegedly made a fake domestic violence call to lure police to an empty apartment rigged with an F-1 hand grenade. No one was injured in the incident. According to Ukraine’s Security Service (SBU), the man, who had six prior convictions, was working under Russian special services’ direction. He faces terrorism charges and up to 12 years in prison if convicted.
MOAS (Migrant Offshore Aid Station), a vital medical evacuation organization in Ukraine, announced on November 27 that it faces closure by the end of 2024 due to depleted funding. The organization’s all-Ukrainian medical team, which has saved 62,000 lives since Russia’s full-scale invasion, requires $1 million monthly to maintain its 150-person team and 50 ambulances. MOAS founder Christopher Catrambone warned that the operation’s end would be “catastrophic” for Ukrainian soldiers’ survival, as no other NGO can replicate their front-line medical services. The organization is urgently seeking new donors to continue operations into 2025.
Innocent Victims Of War
The casualty count of civilians in the past 24 hours: (Russian War Crimes)
DEATHS: 2 INJURIES: 15
Two people died and one was injured in Russian attacks on Ukraine’s Sumy Oblast. A Russian missile hit a residential building and kindergarten in the city of Sumy, causing the fatalities. The injury occurred during separate attacks on the Velyka Pysarivka community near the Russian border.
Two people were injured in the village of Zhovte and one in the town of Pokrovsk in Donetsk Oblast.
Eleven people were injured in Russian attacks on Kherson Oblast that damaged a high-rise building, ten houses, a gas pipeline, a car repair shop, a garage, and multiple cars.
Ukraine Mobilization and Defense Industrial Base
The Biden administration is pushing Ukraine to lower its military draft age from 25 to 18 to address critical troop shortages as the war approaches its third year. This recommendation comes after Ukraine’s previous reduction of the draft age from 27 to 25 in April added 50,000 troops but failed to meet military needs. Ukrainian officials have resisted this proposal, citing concerns about equipment shortages and economic impact from drafting younger workers. Western allies believe Ukraine’s main challenge is insufficient troop numbers rather than weapons shortages, especially as Russia’s forces are being bolstered by North Korean troops. Nearly 4.7 million military-aged Ukrainian men updated their registration data by the July deadline under the new mobilization law.
Ukraine’s Defense Ministry has approved the Oncilla-Shturm, a new domestically produced armored personnel carrier, for military use. The vehicle can transport nine people total (three crew and six soldiers), offers protection against small arms and explosives, and has a range of over 700 kilometers. Equipped with a remote-controlled machine gun, it can be manufactured in multiple variants. This development is part of Ukraine’s expanded defense production initiative that began following Russia’s 2022 invasion, with the country planning to allocate $1.3 billion for weapons production in 2025.
Ukraine’s Allies
NATO allies strongly reaffirmed their support for Ukraine at Brussels talks on Tuesday, with Secretary-General Mark Rutte calling for increased support following Russia’s record launch of 188 drones and hypersonic missile strike on Dnipro. The meeting addressed Russia’s recent escalation, including its new Oreshnik hypersonic missile test, which President Putin claimed was retaliation for Ukraine’s use of Western weapons, while the Kremlin threatened further “retaliatory actions” in response to Ukrainian strikes on Russian soil. President Zelensky met with Rutte to discuss unfulfilled commitments from NATO’s July summit in Washington, expressing concern about delays in receiving promised air defense systems and military support, particularly emphasizing the urgent need for air defense systems to counter Russia’s new ballistic missiles and how these delays affect Ukrainian morale. While NATO has declared Ukraine’s path to membership “irreversible” and promised $43 billion in funding, Zelensky stressed the importance of timely delivery of promised aid and maintaining pressure on Russia, as Ukrainian forces continue to face increasing pressure in the east where Russian troops make gradual advances. The discussions occur amid concerns about future Western support, particularly given uncertainty about US commitment under a potential Trump presidency.
Ukraine and South Korea have agreed to share intelligence about North Korea’s military support to Russia, following Ukrainian Defense Minister Rustem Umerov’s meetings with South Korean President Yoon Suk-yeol in Seoul. During these discussions, the two countries agreed to monitor North Korean troop deployments to Russia and weapons transfers between Moscow and Pyongyang, with Umerov announcing that North Korean forces are actively supporting Russian attacks on Ukraine’s energy infrastructure.
While South Korea currently provides only non-lethal aid to Ukraine due to its policy against supplying weapons to conflict zones and legal restrictions, President Yoon indicated this policy might change if North Korean support for Russia increases. The Ukrainian delegation is reportedly interested in South Korea’s stockpile of 155mm artillery shells, and while Seoul is considering providing “defensive weapons,” direct ammunition supplies appear unlikely due to public opposition, with a recent poll showing 82% of South Koreans oppose sending arms to Ukraine. Moscow has warned that weapons supplies to Ukraine would damage South Korean-Russian relations.
Ukraine has secured a $4.8 billion World Bank loan through the PEACE project to fund essential social services, including pensions, support for displaced persons, and public employee salaries. Prime Minister Denys Shmyhal announced the loan with the agreement signed by Finance Minister Serhii Marchenko and World Bank official Kevin Tomlinson on November 22. Since Russia’s invasion began, the PEACE project has provided approximately $35.5 billion to support Ukraine’s state budget.
President Biden is preparing a $725 million weapons package for Ukraine that may include landmines, drones, Stinger missiles, HIMARS ammunition, and cluster munitions, while also requesting $24 billion in additional aid from Congress ($16 billion to replenish U.S. arsenals and $8 billion for the Ukraine Security Assistance Initiative). According to Reuters, citing U.S. officials, the Biden administration aims to expedite aid delivery in the coming weeks, with the package representing an increase from recent Presidential Drawdown Authority amounts, which typically fall under $5 million. While Congress has allocated $4-5 billion in remaining PDA funds for Ukraine, reports differ on whether the full amount can be delivered before January 20. The request, submitted to Congress on November 25, comes as the administration seeks to maximize support before a potential leadership change in January, with the White House suggesting incorporating this aid into upcoming government funding legislation. Recently, the administration has also approved the delivery of anti-personnel mines and long-range ATACMS to Ukraine; however, the request faces opposition from some Republican lawmakers and Trump allies, and its approval remains uncertain given previous delays in Congress over Ukraine assistance.
Seven European nations – Denmark, Estonia, Finland, Latvia, Norway, Poland, and Sweden – pledged increased support for Ukraine during a summit in Harpsund. The countries committed to boosting Ukraine’s defense industry and ammunition supplies as Russian forces make their fastest gains in months in eastern Ukraine, with North Korean troops now stationed in Russia’s Kursk Oblast. The nations identified Russia as the most significant long-term security threat and agreed to strengthen sanctions and defense measures against both conventional and hybrid attacks.
Russia News
The Kremlin is promoting its “Time of Heroes” program to prevent “Afghan syndrome” – a reference to when Soviet veterans turned to organized crime after returning from Afghanistan in the 1990s. The initiative, which selected 83 participants from 44,000 applicants, is part of Russia’s strategy to manage the reintegration of Ukraine war veterans and prevent the social problems that followed the Afghan War.
The Russian ruble declined sharply reaching 108 against the U.S. dollar, following new U.S. sanctions on 50 Russian banks, including Gazprombank. This marks a significant shift as Gazprombank, previously exempt to allow European energy payments, was a crucial channel for Russia’s oil and gas transactions and military-related payments. The sanctions are expected to reduce the Kremlin’s foreign currency revenue, with the ruble likely to weaken further during the winter holiday season due to increased import demands.
Russia Mobilization and Defense Industrial Base
The Russian Ministry of Defense is sending recently exchanged Russian prisoners of war back to fight in Ukraine. The ministry is exploiting a loophole in the Geneva Convention and using Putin’s 2022 mobilization decree to justify recommitting these former POWs to combat.
Russian regions are boosting recruitment incentives for volunteers to fight in Ukraine. Nizhny Novgorod Oblast is offering a $26,500 signing bonus, 10 acres of land, and a monthly salary of $1,856. Similarly, Ulyanovsk Oblast has increased its signing bonus to $22,000 to recruit 900 troops by the end of 2024.
Russian defense industries are facing a severe workforce crisis, according to State Duma official Oleg Morozov. Russia expects a shortage of 400,000 defense industry specialists, up significantly from the 160,000-shortage reported in June by Deputy Prime Minister Denis Manturov.
The Russian “Elektropribor” plant is significantly behind schedule in producing the “Tirada-2.3” satellite jamming system for the Russian military. Despite claims that the system was operational against Ukrainian satellites since 2022, sources indicate it was only partially deployed in Summer 2023, putting the plant 2.5 years behind on its defense contracts.
Russia’s Allies
Belarus and Russia have deeply integrated their industrial sectors, with over 10,000 enterprises from both countries working together on production and raw material supply.
North Korea is expanding its “February 11” weapons plant near Hamhung city, which produces Hwasong-11 ballistic missiles being used by Russia in Ukraine. Recent satellite imagery shows new construction including machine buildings and assembly facilities. South Korea’s intelligence service reports that North Korea has recently supplied Russia with 50 Koksan artillery howitzers, 240mm rocket systems, and over 13,000 containers of ammunition since August 2023. Additionally, around 11,000 North Korean troops have been deployed to Russia’s Kursk region. In exchange, Russia has provided North Korea with advanced military technology, including air defense missiles. While both countries deny these weapons transfers, Ukrainian officials confirm that about one-third of recent Russian ballistic missile attacks have used North Korean KN-23 type missiles.
Slovakia’s Prime Minister Robert Fico announced that he will attend Russia’s Victory Day celebrations in Moscow next May at Vladimir Putin’s invitation. The decision, which undermines Western efforts to isolate Putin over the invasion of Ukraine, aligns with Fico’s pro-Russian stance and criticism of military aid to Ukraine. Despite Slovakia’s membership in NATO and the EU, Fico has repeatedly echoed Moscow’s propaganda, including claims about Ukrainian “fascism” and diminishing Western support for Ukraine. He recently appeared in an interview with sanctioned Russian propagandist Olga Skabeyeva and has called for restoring relations with Russia after the war.
Source Material
Institute for the Study of War – understandingwar.org
The Kyiv Independent – kyivindependent.com
Kyiv Post – kyivpost.com