Summary of the day: Russian officials expressed concerns about security vulnerabilities following a Ukrainian drone strike on an oil depot in Tsimlyansk, Rostov Oblast. In response to increasing pressures on the battlefield, the Russian military has reportedly deployed operational reserve units, possibly under-equipped due to limitations in their defense industrial base, to support intensified assaults in Ukraine. Meanwhile, Ukrainian forces have made gains near Vovchansk, counterbalancing recent Russian advancements near Avdiivka. Amidst these developments, Ukraine bolstered its defense posture through new security agreements and aid received at the NATO summit held from July 9-11. Additionally, Russian authorities have declared that troops mobilized in the fall of 2022 will not be demobilized until the conflict concludes.
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Peace Talks
The Kremlin has reiterated its preconditions for negotiations, indicating a lack of genuine interest in peaceful dialogue. Kremlin Spokesperson Dmitry Peskov criticized NATO for ignoring Russia’s primary concerns, particularly regarding Ukraine’s potential NATO membership, which he claims eliminates any foundation for talks about the war in Ukraine. Peskov emphasized that Russia must continue its military objectives, which include the destruction of the Ukrainian state and military. He implied that any peace negotiations would require NATO to alter its Open Door Policy and reject Ukraine’s membership aspirations.
Situation On The Land, Sea, and Air in Ukraine
The Russian military has reportedly deployed under-equipped reserve units to the front lines in Ukraine, potentially due to constraints on its defense industry. These units, including elements of the 27th Motorized Rifle Division, were sent into combat around Avdiivka and Toretsk before reaching full operational capacity and without being fully armed as planned. This move might be an effort to bolster Russian forces amidst ongoing heavy assaults in eastern Ukraine.
Kharkiv Front – Initiative None
Ukrainian forces recently conducted counterattacks north and northeast of Kharkiv City, successfully regaining some positions near Vovchansk. Fighting also continued in the Vovchansk area and near Hlyboke, north of Kharkiv. Reports indicate a decrease in Russian infantry attacks near Lyptsi, although airstrikes in that region have intensified.
The Russian military is reorganizing its forces to bolster offensive operations near Kharkiv. Russian forces were redeployed to the Hlyboke area, while preparations are underway in the Vovchansk area. Challenges persist, including an inability to evacuate wounded personnel along some parts of the Kharkiv frontline, worsening the health conditions there. A Russian milblogger noted that the troop strength in this region is between 30,000 to 70,000, considered inadequate for significant advances into Ukrainian defenses.
Luhansk Front – Initiative Russia
Russian forces reportedly made advances along the Kupyansk-Svatove-Kreminna line, although no definitive changes to the frontline were confirmed. Activity included offensive operations in multiple areas: northeast, southeast, and northwest of Kupyansk; southwest and northwest of Svatove; as well as northwest and west of Kreminna. Specific areas mentioned include Synkivka, Vilshana, Petropavlivka, Novoselivske, Stelmakhivka, Berestove, Pishchane, Hrekivka, Makiivka, and Terny. Additionally, a Russian milblogger claimed that a bridge in Kupyansk was targeted with a Kh-38ML missile.
Donetsk Front – Initiative Russia
Siversk
Russian forces carried out ground attacks in the Siversk area, targeting multiple locations including northeast near Bilohorivka, west near Verkhnokamyanske, southeast near Spirne, and south near Rozdolivka and Vyimka. Despite these efforts, there were no confirmed changes to the frontline.
Chasiv Yar
Russian forces maintained offensive operations near Chasiv Yar without altering the frontline. Their approach involves smaller infantry groups supported by artillery and drone assistance rather than large-scale infantry assaults. Significant drone activity, particularly aircraft-type drones, was reported in the area. Clashes persisted around Chasiv Yar, including in nearby Hryhorivka, Ivanivske, Klishchiivka, and Andriivka.
Toretsk
Russian forces pressed on with offensive operations in the Toretsk area, though no frontline changes were confirmed. Despite claims by a Russian milblogger of advances southwest of Niu York and within Zalizne, no visual evidence supports these claims. Ongoing clashes were noted east of Toretsk near Druzhba, southeast near Zalizne, Pivnichne, and Pivdenne, and south near Niu York.
Avdiivka
Russian forces made advancements northwest of Avdiivka, with recent progress noted north of Sokil and Novoselivka Persha. However, claims of further Russian advances north and south of Yasnobrodivka lack visual confirmation. Continued fighting was reported in the vicinity, including near Prohres, Vozdvyzhenka, Novooleksandrivka, Ocheretyne, Kalynove, Lozuvatske, Novoselivka Persha, Yasnobrodivka, and Karlivka.
Southwest of Donetsk City
Russian forces persisted in their offensive operations west and southwest of Donetsk City without any confirmed changes to the frontline. Ongoing skirmishes were reported west of the city near Krasnohorivka and to the southwest near Pobieda, Paraskoviivka, Kostyantynivka, and Vodyane.
Zaporizhia Front – Initiative Russia
Zaporizhia-Donetsk Border Area
The Russian Ministry of Defense announced that their forces have captured Urozhaine near the Donetsk-Zaporizhia Oblast border, though reports vary with some milbloggers stating that the entire settlement has been seized and cleared, while others claim only a major portion is under control. Nearby, ongoing clashes continue near Velyka Novosilka and to its south near Makarivka and Staromayorske.
Zaporizhia Line
In western Zaporizhia Oblast, positional battles persisted near Mala Tokmachka. Russian forces, mainly consisting of airborne (VDV) and mechanized units, continue their attacks in small groups of two to three soldiers, using specialized outerwear to evade detection by Ukrainian thermal imaging. Additionally, drone operators from the Russian “Valkiriya” Special Detachment are active in the area.
Kherson (Dnipro River) Front – Initiative None
Ongoing skirmishes occurred in the east bank of Kherson Oblast, specifically near Krynky and Kozachi Laheri northeast of Kherson City. Additionally, a Russian milblogger highlighted logistical challenges faced by Russian forces stationed on the islands in the Dnipro River Delta, noting a lack of promised boat supplies from Russian governors.
Ukraine News
Russian forces launched missile and drone strikes across Ukraine. Ukrainian air defenses successfully intercepted two Kh-59/69 cruise missiles and four reconnaissance drones in eastern Ukraine, as well as two Orlan-10 drones in southern Ukraine. Additionally, an Iskander-M ballistic missile strike targeted Odesa Oblast. In Kharkiv Oblast, missile strikes hit Budy, including an Iskander missile strike on a training station. The Russian Ministry of Defense confirmed striking a train near Budy with two Iskander-M missiles. Near Sumy City, Ukrainian forces downed another Russian cruise missile.
Ukraine’s Allies
During and after the NATO summit on July 9-11, Ukraine secured numerous security agreements and received substantial aid packages. NATO committed to providing Ukraine with long-term assistance totaling at least 40 billion euros, aimed at enhancing Ukraine’s military capabilities, supporting its defense industry, and providing non-lethal aid. Ukraine also established bilateral security deals with Romania, Luxembourg, and Poland, including promises of air defense systems and training for Ukrainian forces. Further, Ukraine is discussing additional agreements with Czechia, Slovenia, and Ireland. Additionally, a coalition of 21 countries and the EU formed the Ukraine Compact, pledging support for Ukraine’s sovereignty and defense needs, while Australia allocated significant military aid to Ukraine.
Russia News
Following a Ukrainian drone attack on an oil depot in Tsimlyansk, Rostov Oblast on July 13, Russian officials highlighted security shortcomings in protecting key infrastructure. In the aftermath, criticism arose regarding the ineffectiveness of onsite security, with suggestions that Russia should improve its defensive measures like Ukraine’s tactics against drone strikes. Amid ongoing military engagements, where Russian forces advanced near Avdiivka and Ukrainian troops reclaimed territory near Vovchansk, Russia decided not to demobilize servicemembers mobilized in 2022 until the end of the conflict. Concurrently, Ukraine strengthened its defense through new agreements and aid secured at the recent NATO summit.
Russian Mobilization and Defense Industrial Base
Andrei Kartapolov, Chairman of the Russian State Duma Defense Committee, confirmed that the Russian Ministry of Defense has no plans to demobilize the servicemembers mobilized in Fall 2022 until the war concludes. Addressing speculation about a new wave of mobilization to replace current personnel, Kartapolov clarified that no such actions are planned and emphasized ongoing efforts to manage leave and dismissals for frontline troops. This stance reaffirms previous denials of demobilization rumors, amidst continued protests by family members of the mobilized servicemembers.
Ukrainian military observer Kostyantyn Mashovets highlighted inconsistencies in Russian military assault tactics as described in their training manuals. He observed that one manual advises Russian assault companies to engage only with sufficient fire support and when Ukrainian forces are withdrawing, yet another part of the same manual suggests conducting hour-long multi-directional assaults without prior fire preparation to surprise the enemy. Mashovets proposed that these conflicting tactics might reflect actual practices ordered by Russian military command to frontline units.
Izhevsk Unmanned Systems, part of the Kalashnikov Concern, announced plans on July 11 to increase its drone production tenfold in 2024, with further expansions expected in 2025.
Russia’s Allies
Belarusian President Alexander Lukashenko announced the withdrawal of additional Belarusian forces from the Ukrainian-Belarusian border, citing a stabilization in the border situation. Belarusian officials also noted that some Ukrainian forces had previously withdrawn from the border on July 3 and 4.
Russian Narrative and Propaganda
Russian state media and milbloggers have promoted an unfounded claim that Ukrainian military leaders are contemplating a ceasefire and surrender. This claim, initially attributed to a Ukrainian politician, suggests that Ukraine’s Commander-in-Chief, Colonel General Oleksandr Syrskyi, is considering signing a ceasefire and agreeing to a forced peace. Analysts believe such a ceasefire would primarily benefit Russia, allowing it to strengthen its hold on occupied areas and prepare for further military actions.
Russian milbloggers have spread claims by Russian Foreign Ministry Spokesperson Maria Zakharova that Ukraine plans to orchestrate false flag attacks on the Kyiv Hydroelectric Power Station. This allegation is purportedly part of a Ukrainian strategy to persuade NATO countries to actively engage against Russian forces in Ukraine.
Source Material
Institute for the Study of War – understandingwar.org