Summary of the Day:
The Ukrainian Security Service (SBU) conducted a successful operation in Moscow, killing Russian NBC Forces Head Lieutenant General Igor Kirillov and Major Ilya Polikarpov using a remotely detonated explosive device near a residential building on Ryazansky Prospect. The SBU had previously charged Kirillov with war crimes, citing his command of over 4,800 chemical weapons attacks in Ukraine.
Russian forces advanced on multiple fronts, making gains near Kupyansk, Toretsk, Pokrovsk, Vuhledar, Velyka Novosilka, and in Kursk Oblast. In a significant development, U.S. National Security Council Spokesperson John Kirby confirmed North Korean forces are actively engaged in combat operations in Kursk Oblast, with reports of casualties that Russian forces are attempting to conceal by burning the faces of killed North Korean soldiers.
Meanwhile, Russia faces challenges on its Syrian front, with uncertainty surrounding the future of its military bases at Hmeimim Air Base and the Port of Tartus. Satellite imagery from December 15-17 shows preparations for a possible withdrawal, despite conflicting reports about potential negotiations to maintain some Russian presence in the region.
Domestically, the Kremlin is expanding its “Time of Heroes” program, directing regional governments to create local versions of the initiative aimed at installing Kremlin-selected veterans into government positions.
Picture of the Day:
Ukrainian army medics treat Ukrainian soldiers injured in combat, in a stabilization point in the direction of Kurakhove in Donetsk Oblast. (Diego Herrera Carcedo / Anadolu via Getty Images)
Beyond Ukraine – The March Towards World War
The future of Russian military bases in Syria appears uncertain as both Russian and Syrian interim leadership send mixed signals about their status. Reports from December 15-17 show Russian forces preparing for a possible withdrawal from Hmeimim Air Base and the Port of Tartus, despite conflicting statements from Hayat Tahrir al Sham (HTS) sources about potential negotiations to maintain some Russian presence. The European Union is pressuring Syria’s new leadership to close all Russian bases, which could significantly alter the military balance in the region. This uncertainty about Russia’s continued military presence in Syria could have major implications for regional stability and international security, particularly as Russia faces military commitments in Ukraine and growing international pressure to reduce its global military footprint.
Belarus’s Central Election Commission has registered Alexander Lukashenko as a presidential candidate for the January 26, 2025, election. Lukashenko, often described as “Europe’s last dictator,” has maintained power through controversial elections since 1994, and his continued rule has implications for regional security given Belarus’s role as a key Russian ally and its involvement in Russia’s aggressive actions against Ukraine.
Belarusian Defense Minister Viktor Khrenin met with Vietnamese President Luong Cuong to discuss expanding military cooperation between their nations. This meeting signals potential further military alignment between Belarus, a key Russian ally, and Vietnam, raising concerns about growing military partnerships that could affect regional stability.
The Ukrainian Foreign Ministry strongly condemned a December visit by Pan-African Parliament delegates to Russian-occupied Donetsk Oblast, where they echoed Russian propaganda claims. The controversial visit, which undermines global diplomatic efforts for peace in Ukraine, has heightened tensions in a conflict that has already threatened global food security. The situation is particularly sensitive given Russia’s recent withdrawal from the Black Sea Grain Initiative, which had been crucial for preventing famine in developing nations, including many African countries. While Ukraine has since established a new maritime corridor to maintain grain exports, this diplomatic incident highlights the growing complexity of international alignments in the ongoing conflict and raises concerns about its impact on global stability and food security.
The Path to Peace
During a Florida press conference at Mar-a-Lago, President-elect Donald Trump called the Russia-Ukraine conflict “horrible” and described it as the worst carnage since World War II, claiming he could end the war within 24 hours of taking office though not detailing his plan. Trump indicated he would meet with both Russian President Putin and Ukrainian President Zelensky, but when asked about Ukraine potentially ceding territory, he deferred answering until after initial meetings while noting many Ukrainian cities have been completely destroyed. His incoming Ukraine peace envoy, Keith Kellogg, is scheduled to conduct fact-finding discussions in Kyiv and other European cities including Paris and Rome in January 2024, though notably not Moscow. Polish Foreign Minister Radoslaw Sikorski contended that Russia, not Ukraine, should be pressured to negotiate, making these comments ahead of Zelensky’s planned meeting with NATO allies in Brussels, while former security officials have expressed skepticism about achieving peace terms that both Vladimir Putin and Kyiv would accept.
A new Polish survey reveals a significant shift in public opinion about the Russia-Ukraine war, with 55% of Poles now favoring peace even if Ukraine must give up territory – a dramatic increase from 26% in April 2022. This marks the first time a majority of Polish citizens have supported territorial concessions for peace, particularly among younger people and small-city residents. This contrasts sharply with Ukrainian sentiment, where 63% of citizens remain willing to continue fighting. Meanwhile, Russia’s Defense Minister announced plans to fully occupy Donetsk, Luhansk, Kherson, and Zaporizhzhia oblasts by 2025, while President-elect Trump has indicated an intention to push for peace negotiations, potentially by reducing U.S. aid to Ukraine.
Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky dismissed Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orban’s potential role as a mediator with Russia, stating Orban has no leverage over Putin. The statement comes amid tensions following Orban’s recent phone call with Putin and claims about a rejected Christmas ceasefire. Ukraine’s Chief of Staff Andriy Yermak emphasized that peace talks will only begin when Russia lacks resources to continue fighting, noting that Hungary, while maintaining close ties with Moscow, has opposed EU sanctions on Russia and blocked military aid to Ukraine.
Situation On The Land, Sea, and Air in Ukraine
Ukraine’s Defense Minister Rustem Umerov has ordered an investigation into serious allegations of soldier abuse. Commanders are accused of beating service members, extorting money, and using extreme punishments, including tying a soldier to a wooden cross. Commander-in-Chief Oleksandr Syrskyi has suspended Brigade Commander Colonel Oleh Poberezhniuk, who also faces separate charges for misusing subordinates for personal construction work. Captain Vladyslav Pastukh, related to senior officers, was identified as a key alleged perpetrator. The revelations come at a critical time as Ukraine struggles with military recruitment challenges and aims to reform its armed forces.
Ukrainian Operations in the Russian Federation – Initiative Russia
Russian forces, bolstered by North Korean troops, have launched an intensive three-day offensive in Ukraine’s Kursk Oblast, with fighting across multiple settlements including Malaya Loknya, Russkoye Porechnoye, Cherkasskoye Porechnoye, Cherkasskaya Konopelka, Kurilovka, Novoivanovka, Kremyanoye, and near Sverdlikovo. Recent footage shows North Korean forces moving near Malaya Loknya and crossing the Psel River near Kurilovka, while Russian forces have intensified operations using mechanized and infantry attacks combined with heavy aerial bombing of Ukrainian positions. Russian forces claim to have captured Novoivanovka, with both airborne and naval infantry units operating in the area, though Ukrainian forces are struggling against superior Russian manpower and equipment, having reportedly lost about half the territory initially captured in August and September.
The Pentagon and U.S. National Security Council Spokesperson John Kirby have confirmed North Korean forces are actively fighting alongside Russian forces in Kursk Oblast, with Pentagon officials noting their recent movement from rear positions to the frontline. Russia has reportedly deployed over 10,000 North Korean troops since August, with Ukrainian intelligence estimating the current number at 12,000 soldiers operating specifically near the villages of Plekhovo, Vorozhba, and Martynovka. Communication issues between Russian and North Korean troops have led to friendly-fire incidents, including one where North Korean soldiers fired on Chechen Akhmat battalion vehicles, resulting in eight deaths.
Ukraine’s Special Operations Forces and the 8th Special Forces Regiment reported significant North Korean casualties during the three-day combat period, with 50 soldiers killed and 47 wounded, while also claiming destruction of multiple military vehicles. According to Ukrainian President Zelensky and military officials, Russian forces are attempting to conceal North Korean casualties by burning their faces and restricting their visibility during training, with the Kremlin refusing to acknowledge the presence of North Korean troops, likely to avoid undermining Putin’s claims about high Russian recruitment rates. Ukrainian officials note that while the North Korean troops are well-trained, their morale drops significantly when facing heavy casualties.
According to Russian Defense Ministry data reported by Verstka, Ukraine conducted 7,339 drone strikes on Russian territory in 2024, affecting 30 different regions. The strikes primarily targeted border regions like Belgorod, Kursk, and Bryansk, as well as occupied Crimea and areas over the Black and Azov seas. The report notes that this count is incomplete, as it omits strikes deeper inside Russia, including those on Murmansk Oblast and Chechnya.
Kharkiv Front – Initiative Russia
Russian forces launched limited attacks near Ukraine’s Kharkiv region operating along the international border near Kozacha Lopan, north of Kharkiv City and Lyptsi, and around Vovchansk. Russian sources claim their forces are advancing west of the Vovcha River near Vovchansk.
Luhansk Front – Initiative Russia
Russian forces have advanced near Kupyansk, reaching a windbreak east of Zahryzove and crossing the Oskil River west of Masyutivka. They are attempting to expand their positions near Kupyansk-Vuzlovyi and trying to reach the R-79 Dvorichna-Kupyansk road near Zapadne. Fighting continues across multiple areas including Petropavlivka, Kucherivka, Lozova, Novoplatonivka, Vyshneve, Kopanky, Zelenyi Hai, Novoserhiivka, Tverdokhlibove, Makiivka, Novoyehorivka, Cherneshchyna, Terny, Hryhorivka, and the Serebryanske forest area.
Donetsk Front – Initiative Russia
Siversk
Russian forces attacked several areas around Siversk targeting Bilohorivka to the northeast, Verkhnokamyanske to the east, and Ivano-Darivka and Spirne to the southeast. No confirmed advances were made in any of these locations.
Chasiv Yar
Russian forces continued attacks around Chasiv Yar without confirmed advances. While Russian sources claim they reached the central Refractory Plant, Ukrainian forces report preventing Russian troops from reaching the facility. Russian forces are also attempting to cross the Siverskyi Donets Donbas Canal, using infantry with drone support as they cannot cross with armored vehicles. Fighting continues near Orikhovo-Vasylivka and Stupochky, with Russian airborne and drone units operating in the area.
Toretsk
Russian forces advanced into northern Toretsk, reaching Bieliakova Street. While Russian sources claim they are clearing positions on the western outskirts and aim to advance toward Kostyantynivka, these claims remain unconfirmed. Fighting continues around Toretsk and near Shcherbynivka.
Pokrovsk
Russian forces advanced to northeastern Novovasylivka, southwest of Pokrovsk. Russian sources claim advances near multiple settlements including Novotroitske, Shevchenko, Lysivka, Dachenske, Pishchane, Novoolenivka, and Ukrainka, though these claims are unconfirmed. Fighting continues across several areas including Myrolyubivka, Promin, Sukhi Yar, Zelene, Novyi Trud, Novooleksiivka, and Pushkine. Ukrainian forces reportedly launched a counterattack near Shevchenko.
Kurakhove
Russian forces attacked around Kurakhove without confirmed advances. Ukrainian forces repelled Russian attacks on the eastern outskirts of Dalne and in southeastern and southern Kurakhove. Fighting continues near Stari Terny, Sontsivka, Shevchenko, and Slovyanka. Ukrainian sources report that Russian forces in this area primarily use vehicles for logistics and troop rotation rather than mechanized assaults.
Andriivka
Russian forces advanced in the Vuhledar area capturing Zelenivka from the south. While Russian sources claim to have taken Hannivka, Kostiantynopolske, and made advances toward Ulakly and Kostiantynopil, most of these claims remain unconfirmed. Fighting continues across several settlements including Uspenivka, Trudove, Sukhi Yaly, Hihant, Zelenivka, and Yantarne, with Russian forces launching a mechanized assault on southeastern Kostiantynopolske.
Velyka Novosilka
Russian forces advanced near Velyka Novosilka crossing Druzhby Street west of the Mokryi Yaly River near Makarivka, with Russian sources claiming multiple advances around Novyi Komar, Neskuchne, Rivnopil, Storozheve, and Makarivka, while fighting continues across several locations including Rozdolne, Blahodatne, Novodarivka, and Novosilka. According to DeepState monitoring group, Russian forces are close to encircling Ukrainian troops near Velyka Novosilka, 74 kilometers from Donetsk, having nearly surrounded Ukrainian forces in Makarivka, partially entered Novyi Komar, and reportedly cut off the Ukrainian ground communication line near Makarivka leading to Neskuchne. Ukraine’s Commander-in-Chief Oleksandr Syrskyi characterized this Russian offensive as one of the most powerful since the 2022 invasion, with Russian forces making gains near Toretsk, Chasiv Yar, and Kupiansk.
Zaporizhia Front – Initiative Russia
Russian forces conducted offensive operations near Novoandriivka and Novodanylivka in western Zaporizhia Oblast with no confirmed advances. While Russian sources claimed advances north of Nesteryanka, these reports remain unverified. Ukrainian officials reported Russian reconnaissance activities, troop rotations, and resupply efforts in the Orikhiv and Hulyaipole areas. Russian sources offered conflicting accounts, with some claiming intensified operations while others described the situation as largely static.
Kherson (Dnipro River) Front – Initiative Russia
Russian forces attacked positions along the Dnipro River in eastern Kherson Oblast and nearby river islands but made no confirmed advances. Poor weather conditions reportedly limited drone operations in the area, though Russian naval infantry drone units remain active in the region.
Ukraine News
Russian forces launched 31 drones against Ukraine overnight targeting multiple regions. Ukrainian air defenses shot down 20 drones over Poltava, Sumy, Kyiv, Zhytomyr and Cherkasy regions, while 10 others failed to reach their targets. In Kyiv, falling debris caused minor damage in three city districts.
European energy stability faces a critical turning point as the Russian gas transit agreement through Ukraine expires on December 31. Energy companies from Slovakia, Hungary, Italy, and Austria have jointly called for maintaining this vital transit route, warning that disruption could threaten regional energy security and peace. Slovakia’s SPP chairman estimates an additional €150 million cost to replace Ukrainian transit volumes, potentially destabilizing European energy markets. While Ukraine refuses to extend the Russian gas agreement due to ongoing war, Ukrainian Prime Minister Shmyhal has offered to negotiate transit for non-Russian gas supplies.
President Zelensky announced Ukraine’s ambitious goal to open all European Union negotiation clusters in 2025, aiming for at least two clusters during Poland’s EU presidency. This follows the EU’s recent approval to begin accession talks with Ukraine, with EU Commissioner Varhelyi suggesting possible membership by 2029 if reforms continue. While the European Commission has praised Ukraine’s progress in judicial reform and anti-corruption measures, further improvements are still needed to meet EU standards. Ukraine, which received EU candidate status in June 2022, has already submitted its detailed reform plan for reconstruction and modernization.
Ukraine’s parliament has taken a significant step toward allowing multiple citizenship by approving the first reading of a new bill supported by 247 lawmakers. The legislation, introduced by President Zelensky in August, would change the current single-citizenship law while prohibiting Russian citizenship. The bill aims to strengthen ties with Ukraine’s large global diaspora, including 6.7 million recent war refugees, and simplify citizenship procedures for ethnic Ukrainians born abroad. The proposal still requires a second reading, Constitutional Court review, and presidential signature to become law.
President Zelensky and Polish Prime Minister Donald Tusk met in Lviv to strengthen bilateral relations and address historical tensions, particularly regarding the 1940s Volyn massacre. The leaders reported progress on historical reconciliation through joint ministry work, with Tusk emphasizing that past events cannot divide the two nations. They also discussed Ukraine’s military situation, Western support, and Ukraine’s EU aspirations during Poland’s upcoming EU presidency in 2024. While Poland views the Volyn events as genocide by the Ukrainian Insurgent Army, Ukraine advocates for acknowledging shared responsibility in the World War II-era violence that killed thousands on both sides.
Ukrainian lawmaker Yuriy Boyko apologized and called Vladimir Putin a “war criminal” after being questioned by security services about a controversial TikTok video. The former deputy prime minister under pro-Russian President Yanukovych had earlier made statements echoing Russian propaganda about alleged restrictions on language and religion in Ukraine. After questioning by the Security Service of Ukraine (SBU), Boyko retracted his statements and called for national unity against Russian aggression.
Former ruling party MP Mykola Tyshchenko will face trial for allegedly assaulting and kidnapping war veteran Dmytro Pavlov in Dnipro, the State Investigation Bureau announced. The June incident, captured on video, shows Tyshchenko and his bodyguards in a physical altercation with Pavlov, who was walking with his child. Tyshchenko, who was expelled from President Zelensky’s party in 2023 after an unauthorized trip to Thailand, faces up to five years in prison if convicted.
Innocent Victims Of War
The casualty count of civilians in the past 24 hours: (Russian War Crimes)
DEATHS: 4 INJURIES: 6
Russian forces attacked the Nikopol district in Dnipropetrovsk Oblast, injuring a 57-year-old woman who has been hospitalized in serious condition. The attack also damaged three houses, two businesses, and several other buildings in the area.
A Russian attack on the front-line town of Pokrovsk in Donetsk Oblast has resulted in one civilian death.
A Russian attack on the town of Kupiansk in Kharkiv Oblast killed two civilians, aged 53 and 64, and damaged fifteen houses.
Russian forces struck Kherson Oblast, resulting in one civilian death and five injuries. The attack damaged two apartment buildings and fifteen houses in the region.
The aftermath of Russian attacks against Kharkiv Oblast, Ukraine. (Governor Oleh Syniehubov/Telegram)
Ukraine’s Allies
NATO has taken over coordination of Western military aid to Ukraine through its new Security Assistance and Training center in Wiesbaden, Germany. The facility, which employs 700 personnel across locations in Germany, Belgium, Poland, and Romania, is now fully operational. While this represents increased NATO involvement in supporting Ukraine’s defense, diplomatic sources note that potential changes in U.S. leadership could still affect aid levels. Recent discussions between Ukrainian President Zelensky and President-elect Trump in Paris focused on ceasefire possibilities but reached no formal agreements.
The European Union has adopted its 15th sanctions package against Russia, targeting 54 individuals and 30 entities supporting Russia’s war in Ukraine. The new measures include sanctions against military personnel involved in attacking Kyiv’s Okhmatdyt children’s hospital, energy company managers, and for the first time, Chinese companies supplying drone components to Russia. The package expands maritime restrictions, banning 52 additional ships involved in circumventing oil price caps or transporting military equipment. The EU has also blocked recognition of Russian court rulings against EU businesses and expanded export restrictions on entities from China, India, Iran, Serbia, and the UAE that support Russia’s military industry.
The United Kingdom has sanctioned 20 vessels from Russia’s “shadow fleet” – cargo ships that transport Russian oil above international price caps. The sanctioned ships, including Ocean Faye, Andaman Skies, and Mianzimu, are part of Russia’s poorly maintained fleet that handles 70% of its seaborne oil exports. The UK also pledged £35 million ($44 million) to repair Ukraine’s energy infrastructure, which was recently damaged in Russian attacks on December 13.
Italy has approved its tenth military aid package for Ukraine, with Defense Minister Guido Crosetto set to present the details on Wednesday. Foreign Minister Antonio Tajani emphasized Italy’s support for Ukraine while working to organize a peace conference that would include Russia along with China, India, and Brazil. The Italian government also plans to host the Ukraine Recovery Conference in Rome in July. While Italy maintains steady support for Ukraine, it continues its traditional role as a potential mediator between the West and its adversaries.
Life in Russian Occupied Ukraine
Russian video platform RuTube is expanding into occupied Ukraine, installing servers and planning new studios in Luhansk City and Mariupol to increase Russian media control in these areas. This is part of a larger Russian effort to dominate the information space in occupied territories, which includes registering over 105 local media outlets in occupied Donetsk, Luhansk, Zaporizhia, and Kherson regions, and installing “Russkyi Mir” satellite dishes to control access to Russian programming.
Russia News
The Ukrainian Security Service (SBU) has confirmed executing a lethal operation in Moscow that killed Russian NBC Forces Head Lieutenant General Igor Kirillov and his aide Major Ilya Polikarpov when a remotely detonated explosive device (equivalent to 200 grams of TNT) planted in a scooter exploded outside a residential building on Ryazansky Prospect. The SBU had charged Kirillov with war crimes the day before, citing his command of over 4,800 chemical weapons attacks in Ukraine, and he had been sanctioned by the UK in October over chemical weapons use; Kirillov was also known for promoting false narratives, including claims about U.S. biolabs in Ukraine and accusations about the Pentagon’s involvement in the Kakhovka Hydroelectric Power Plant destruction, with these fabricated biolab claims notably used as a pretext for Russia’s invasion.
The Kremlin has characterized Kirillov’s killing as a terrorist act, with the Russian Investigative Committee opening a terrorism investigation, while Russian ultranationalist voices are calling for retaliation against Ukraine’s military and political leadership, criticizing the Kremlin’s current strategy of targeting infrastructure. Security Council Deputy Chairperson Dmitry Medvedev promised vengeance, though critics argue that Russia’s reliance on unguided bombs and Oreshnik missiles is insufficient for victory, while some military bloggers point out that Ukraine can still conduct sophisticated operations despite Russian frontline gains, warning that Moscow remains vulnerable. The operation follows the recent death of Mikhail Shatsky, a Russian weapons developer, marking a pattern of high-profile attacks on Russian military officials.
Two Russian oil tankers, the Volgoneft 212 and Volgoneft 239, both over 50 years old and primarily designed for river transport, sank near the Kerch Strait off Crimea’s coast during a winter storm on December 15, causing a major oil spill of over 9,000 tons that covers 100 square kilometers, leading officials to declare a state of emergency in two municipalities in Krasnodar Krai. The disaster has severely impacted beaches near Anapa and the Crimean coast, with oil and tar washing ashore and damaging local wetlands, particularly affecting seabirds, especially pelicans, which have become coated in oil, while one sailor died in the incident and 14 others were rescued. The ships were reportedly operating in weather conditions beyond their safety ratings, and although local authorities have deployed 250 workers for cleanup efforts, environmental experts warn the pollution could affect the region for months to come.
Russian War Losses (Today/Total)
Troops +1580
766690 |
Tanks +4
9571 |
Artillery +5
21164 |
Arm. Veh. +21
19772 |
Aircraft 
369 |
Heli
329 |
Ships
28 |
Russia Mobilization and Defense Industrial Base
The Kremlin is expanding its “Time of Heroes” program across Russian regions, aiming to place military veterans in government positions. Several regions have launched similar initiatives: Tula Oblast created “Hero 71,” Lipetsk Oblast started “People’s Pride,” Khanty-Mansi plans “Heroes of Yugra” for 2025, and Ryazan Oblast began “Heroes 62.” Moscow Oblast is also actively implementing the program, with Governor Vorobyev appointing a program graduate as deputy minister. This coordinated nationwide effort suggests the Kremlin is pushing to militarize government at all levels while maintaining political stability.
The Russian Ministry of Defense is using deceptive tactics to force conscripts and civilians into signing military contracts for combat in Ukraine. According to Radio Free Europe’s Tatar-Bashkir Service, there are reports of coercion and contract falsification, including one case where a lieutenant allegedly killed a conscript who refused to sign a military service contract.
Despite claims by Moscow’s Military Recruitment Head Maksim Loktev that the city met its Fall 2024 conscription goals ahead of schedule, Russian lawyer Artem Klyga from the “Movement of Conscious Objectors” disputes this. Klyga states that conscription is still ongoing, and Moscow is likely falling short of its 8,000-man quota, suggesting continued problems with draft avoidance despite increased patriotic education and stricter conscription rules.
Russian defense company Rostec has unveiled two new military drones: the “Depesha,” a tracked robot operated by fiber optic cable designed to resist electronic warfare, and the “Karakal,” a tracked drone intended for equipment delivery, reconnaissance, and artillery support.
Source Material
Institute for the Study of War – understandingwar.org
The Kyiv Independent – kyivindependent.com
Kyiv Post – kyivpost.com