Summary of the day: Russian forces launched a large-scale drone and missile strike targeting Ukrainian energy infrastructure. Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky noted challenges due to understrength reserve brigades and delays in US security assistance. Meanwhile, Russian forces made marginal advancements near Kupyansk, Chasiv Yar, and Avdiivka. The situation is further complicated by unclear US restrictions on Ukraine’s use of American weapons and varied Western policies on the future use of F-16 fighter jets. Additionally, the Russian Ministry of Justice designated the “Way Home” social movement as a “foreign agent.”
These updates will be shorter until the end of July and will only use the Institute for the Study of War as a source while we are on holiday visiting family and friends. We will be back to our normal coverage again starting on July 22, 2024.
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Situation On The Land, Sea, and Air in Ukraine
The US has unclear restrictions on Ukraine’s use of US-provided weapons to strike Russian military targets, missing a chance to deter further Russian offensives into northern Ukraine. US official Michael Carpenter stated that Ukraine can use these weapons for counter-fire near the border. However, ambiguity remains about broader authorization, frustrating Ukrainian officials who feel limited in their response.
The US’s unclear policy on Ukraine using US-provided weapons to strike Russian targets misses a chance to deter Russian offensives into northern Ukraine. Ukrainian officials warn of Russian force concentrations in Kursk and Bryansk, which could draw Ukrainian troops away from other areas. Clear US authorization for strikes on Russian forces preparing for attacks could change Russian strategies and improve Ukraine’s defense capabilities.
Western governments have different policies on Ukraine’s use of Western-supplied F-16 fighter jets. Belgian Prime Minister Alexander De Croo stated that Belgian F-16s can only be used within Ukraine. In contrast, Dutch Defense Minister Kajsa Ollongren said Dutch F-16s can be used over Russian territory if Ukraine follows international law. These varied policies complicate Ukraine’s planning and use of F-16s for aviation operations.
Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky acknowledged that some reserve brigades are understrength due to slow US security assistance, complicating defensive operations. He noted that Russian forces are exploiting this weakness by stretching Ukrainian forces along a wider front. Adequate security aid would strengthen Ukraine’s reserves and reduce the need to reallocate forces. Ukrainian Commander-in-Chief Oleksandr Syrskyi reported that Russia aims to force Ukraine to commit its limited reserves to defend northern Kharkiv. Expected US aid in June or July 2024 will help bolster Ukrainian reserves and form new brigades.
Kharkiv Front – Initiative Russia
Lyptsi
Fighting continued in the Lyptsi area with no changes to the frontline. Clashes occurred near Lyptsi and between Hlyboke and Lukyantsi. A Ukrainian commander reported Russian forces concentrating infantry near Hlyboke, using light armored vehicles, motorcycles, and ATVs. A Russian source claimed the offensive in northern Kharkiv has stalled due to ineffective battlefield isolation, Ukrainian drones, and failed counter-battery efforts.
Vovchansk
Fighting persisted in the Vovchansk area with no changes to the frontline. The Russian Ministry of Defense claimed that Ukrainian forces counterattacked near Vovchansk and Starytsya.
Zolochiv
Ukrainian officials warn that Russian forces may launch offensives in the Zolochiv direction, northwest of Kharkiv City. Kharkiv Oblast Military Administration Head Oleh Synehubov expressed concerns about intensified Russian actions in the area. While no “strike group” has formed yet, Russian forces could shift from Lyptsi and Vovchansk to Zolochiv. President Zelensky stated that Russian forces are preparing new offensives and concentrating near the border, likely aiming to stretch Ukrainian defenses.
Luhansk Front – Initiative Russia
Russian forces made minor advances southeast of Kupyansk amid ongoing fighting along the Kupyansk-Svatove-Kreminna line. Geolocated footage from May 31 shows a slight Russian advance southwest of Novoselivske. Claims of further advances near Stelmakhivka remain unconfirmed. Russian assaults continued in several areas near Kupyansk, Svatove, and Kreminna.
Donetsk Front – Initiative Russia
Siversk
Russian forces attacked near Rozdolivka, Ivano-Darivka, and Vyimka, all in the Siversk direction. There were no confirmed changes to the frontline.
Chasiv Yar
Russian forces made minor advances east of Chasiv Yar, as shown in footage indicating a small advance south of Ivanivske. Additional footage from May 31 shows a Russian vehicle crossing the Siverskyi Donets Donbas Canal near Kalynivka and dropping off infantry, who were quickly struck by a Ukrainian drone. This suggests Ukrainian forces have strong visibility in the area. Fighting also continued in eastern Chasiv Yar and nearby areas, but no significant changes to the frontline were confirmed.
Avdiivka
Russian forces made minor advances southwest of Avdiivka. Geolocated footage shows these advances near Solovyove and Pervomaiske. Russian sources also claimed progress near Novopokrovske, Netaylove, Semenivka, and Yasnobrodivka. Fighting continued northwest of Avdiivka near several villages, as well as west and southwest of Avdiivka near Umanske and Nevelske.
Southwest of Donetsk City
Russian forces continued ground attacks west and southwest of Donetsk City, with no confirmed changes to the frontline. Russian sources claimed advances in central Krasnohorivka and 1.5 kilometers west from Solodke, though these claims lack visual confirmation. Fighting also continued near Heorhiivka, Kostyantynivka, Paraskoviivka, and Vodyane.
Zaporizhia Front – Initiative Russia
Zaporizhia-Donetsk Border Area
Fighting continued near Staromayorske on the Donetsk-Zaporizhia border. Russian forces are active near Urozhaine.
Zaporizhia Line
Positional fighting continued in western Zaporizhia Oblast with no changes to the frontline. Russian sources claimed new attacks near Nesteryanka, likely referring to recent operations near Novoandriivka and Shcherbaky. Fighting also persisted near Robotyne, Verbove, Novodanylivka, Mala Tokmachka, and Novoandriivka.
Kherson (Dnipro River) Front – Initiative None
On the evening of May 31, positional fighting continued in eastern Kherson Oblast near Krynky, but no fighting was reported on June 1. A Russian source claimed that Russian forces are active on Frolova and Nestryha islands in the Dnipro River Delta and near Kozachi Laheri and Korsunka.
Ukraine News
Russian forces launched a large-scale drone and missile strike targeting Ukrainian energy infrastructure. They fired 47 drones and 53 missiles, hitting various regions including Zaporizhia and Dnipropetrovsk. Ukrainian forces intercepted many of the attacks, but significant damage was reported to energy facilities. Ukrainian officials noted that Russia aims to exhaust Ukraine’s air defense and damage critical infrastructure.
Russian Mobilization and Defense Industrial Base
The Russian Ministry of Justice designated the “Way Home” social movement, which advocates for the demobilization of mobilized servicemembers, as a “foreign agent.” The Kremlin has previously suppressed the movement’s protests, and state media outlets RIA Novosti and TASS did not report this designation. The Kremlin likely aims to prevent the movement from gaining influence, similar to social movements in the late 1980s and early 1990s.
Some Russian milbloggers are discussing the idea of reintroducing political commissars to the military. One milblogger suggested that commissars could enforce the Ministry of Defense’s orders and gather information. Another claimed the system already exists but is ineffective. A third argued that commissars won’t help unless issues like poor training, lack of equipment, high losses, and no troop rotations are addressed. Another said the new commissars would have weak ideologies and called for a state ideology focused on a long war. The UK Ministry of Defense reported that Russia is issuing a new journal to indoctrinate soldiers with Kremlin war justifications.
Russian defense conglomerate Rostec announced that its subsidiary, High Precision Complexes, has developed two multifunctional robotic systems, “Depesha” and “Buggy,” currently being tested in Ukraine. The “Depesha” has a load capacity of 150 kilograms, while the “Buggy” can carry 250 kilograms. These remote-controlled robots can deliver supplies, evacuate wounded, conduct strikes, and mine areas. Both systems can also function as kamikaze drones, detonating upon contact with targets.
Russia’s Allies
EU High Commissioner Josep Borrell stated there is no evidence that China has supplied arms to Russia. However, he noted the distinction between arms and dual-use items is unclear. Borrell highlighted a significant increase in Chinese exports to Russia over the past two years and said the EU is monitoring for any potential sanctions evasion by China.
Russian Narrative and Propaganda
Kremlin officials are angry at Western efforts to censor and arrest Russian journalists supporting Russia’s war in Ukraine. Anna Neistat from the Clooney Foundation for Justice stated they are appealing to the ICC and European countries to investigate and prosecute these journalists for inciting genocide and spreading war propaganda. Kremlin spokesperson Dmitri Peskov called this effort “crazy,” and MFA spokesperson Maria Zakharova labeled it political persecution. Dmitry Medvedev, Deputy Chair of the Russian Security Council, criticized and threatened Clooney Foundation co-founder George Clooney.
Source Material
Institute for the Study of War – understandingwar.org