Russian Forces Enter Vovchansk – Day 812 (May 15, 2024)

Summary of the day: Russian forces recently made confirmed advances in northern Kharkiv Oblast, near Siversk, and west of Donetsk City, although the tempo of their offensive operations in northern Kharkiv Oblast is decreasing. Ukrainian officials have confirmed that initial Russian seizures in the region targeted less defended areas. Amid these developments, US Secretary of State Antony Blinken announced a two billion dollar “defense enterprise fund” for Ukraine, while the US Helsinki Commission suggested allowing Ukraine to strike military targets in Russia’s border areas. Additionally, Ukraine’s Main Military Intelligence Directorate struck a Russian fuel depot in Rostov Oblast.

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Picture Of The Day

A building with many windows

Description automatically generatedThe aftermath of the Russian attack against the central part of Kherson on May 15, 2024. (Kherson Oblast Governor Oleksandr Prokudin / Telegram)

Beyond Ukraine – March Towards World War

Slovak Prime Minister Robert Fico was critically injured in a shooting in Handlova, lawmakers confirmed to Tasr news agency. The parliament session was suspended. Fico was shot in the stomach, arms, and legs, and is in a life-threatening condition. He is being transported by helicopter to Banska Bystrica. A 71-year-old man suspected of the politically motivated attack has been detained. President-elect Peter Pellegrini called the shooting a threat to Slovakia’s democracy. International leaders, including President Volodymyr Zelensky and Czech President Petr Pavel, condemned the attack. Interior Minister Matus Sutaj Estok warned that the country is on the verge of civil war. Fico, elected in September 2023, has halted arms supplies to Ukraine and criticized defense assistance and sanctions against Russia, though he supports Ukraine’s EU accession.

The Kremlin is adding more European officials to Russia’s wanted list to assert Russian jurisdiction over NATO member states. Since February 2024, dozens of Lithuanian, Latvian, Estonian, Czech, and Polish officials have been added. Notable additions include Estonian Prime Minister Kaja Kallas and Minister of Internal Affairs Lauri Laanemets. This move is seen as a strategy to justify potential future aggression against NATO.

Kremlin officials continue to accuse the West and the US of destabilizing Georgia amid ongoing protests in Tbilisi against a Russian-style “foreign agents” bill. White House Press Secretary Karine Jean-Pierre criticized the bill, prompting Russian Foreign Ministry spokesperson Maria Zakharova to accuse the US of threatening Georgia. Georgian Prime Minister Bidzina Ivanishvili echoed anti-Western rhetoric, aligning with Russian efforts to disrupt Georgia’s Euro-Atlantic integration.

Shares in Georgia’s largest banks, TBC and Bank of Georgia, plummeted following a warning from U.S. Assistant Secretary of State Jim O’Brien about potential consequences if the controversial foreign agents law is enacted. The shares experienced their steepest single-day declines since the spring of 2020. Georgia’s parliament passed the bill on May 14, but it faces further legislative steps. President Salome Zurabishvili has vowed to veto it, but the ruling Georgian Dream party can likely override her decision. Western officials condemned the law and the government’s crackdown on protests. O’Brien warned of U.S. financial and travel restrictions if the law undermines democracy and leads to violence against peaceful protesters. Protests against the law continue to grow, with opposition urging sanctions on top officials, including Georgian Dream’s Honorary Chairman Bidzina Ivanishvili.

EU ambassadors agreed to ban four key Russian propaganda outlets: Rossiyskaya Gazeta, Voice of Europe, RIA Novosti, and Izvestiya, according to Rikard Jozwiak of Radio Free Europe/Radio Liberty. Czechia had previously uncovered a Moscow-funded propaganda network using Voice of Europe to spread disinformation, linked to Ukrainian oligarch Viktor Medvedchuk. This move follows earlier EU bans on Russian outlets RT and Sputnik. Russian Foreign Ministry spokesperson Maria Zakharova warned of retaliatory measures against Western media if Russian outlets face restrictions. Russia recently expanded its media bans to include foreign state-funded organizations like the BBC and RFE/RL. The Committee to Protect Journalists reports that Russia currently holds at least 22 journalists, including two U.S. citizens.

Situation On The Land, Sea, and Air in Ukraine

Russian President Vladimir Putin dismissed the threat of Ukrainian counterattacks, asserting that Russian forces are repelling them and improving positions across Ukraine. The US Office of the Director of National Intelligence reported that Putin believes Russian forces have halted Ukrainian efforts to reclaim territory and that Western support for Ukraine is limited. Despite limited Russian advances in northern Kharkiv Oblast, US officials are confident that increased US security assistance by July 2024 will enable Ukraine to counter recent Russian gains. However, they remain cautious about long-term support for Ukrainian counteroffensives.

Ukrainian forces likely conducted an ATACMS strike on Belbek Airfield in occupied Crimea. Footage of the strike was posted by Russian sources. Ukrainian journalist Yuriy Butusov reported the destruction of a MiG-31 aircraft, two air defense systems, a radar system, and damage to three Su-27 aircraft. The Russian Ministry of Defense claimed to have shot down 10 ATACMS missiles, while the Sevastopol occupation governor identified them as cluster munitions. A Russian milblogger stated that up to 16 ATACMS missiles were launched, with about 13 reportedly downed by Russian forces.

A map of ukraine with different colored areas

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Kharkiv Front – Initiative Russia
Luhansk Front – Initiative Russia
Donetsk Front – Initiative Russia
Zaporizhia Front – Initiative Russia
Kherson (Dnipro River) Front – Initiative None

Russian forces’ offensive in northern Kharkiv Oblast is slowing after initial gains in less defended areas, with Ukrainian officials reporting partial stabilization and ongoing counterattacks. Ukrainian artillery and drone strikes are thwarting Russian advances near Lukyantsi and Vovchansk. Constant shelling prevents Ukrainian fortifications close to the border, with defenses set 12 to 20 kilometers away. Russian forces have advanced up to eight kilometers from the border, focusing on creating a “buffer zone.” President Volodymyr Zelensky announced that Ukrainian forces have stabilized the situation and are effectively countering Russian forces. Heavy defensive battles are ongoing, with Ukrainian troops repelling 11 attacks in several directions, including Hlyboke-Lyptsi and Lukiantsi-Vovchansk. Despite ongoing fighting, Ukrainian forces are preventing Russian troops from gaining a foothold. Ukrainian counterattacks, using artillery and drones, have inflicted significant losses on Russian forces, including 615 soldiers and 98 equipment units. Russian forces have paused new actions, focusing on regrouping and solidifying positions. More Ukrainian troops have been deployed to repel Russian attacks in the Vovchansk direction, partially pushing out enemy forces. Kharkiv Mayor Ihor Terekhov announced on May 15 that there are no plans to evacuate the city despite a new Russian offensive in the region.

The US Helsinki Commission recommended allowing Ukraine to strike military targets in Russia’s border areas amid Russia’s offensive into Kharkiv Oblast, but US officials remain opposed. Secretary of State Antony Blinken stated the US has not supported such strikes, emphasizing Ukraine’s autonomy in its military decisions. Current US policy prohibits using American weapons for attacks on Russian territory, aimed at defense, not offense. This policy limits Ukraine’s ability to counter Russian forces staging in border areas.

Russian forces made tactical advances north of Kharkiv City, specifically in the Lyptsi direction. They have advanced east of Hlyboke and along the east bank of the Travyanske Reservoir. The Russian Ministry of Defense and milbloggers claimed Russian forces seized Hlyboke and Lukyantsi. Ukrainian forces recently pushed Russians out of Zelene and repelled assaults between Borisivka and Neskuchne.

Russian forces recently made tactical advances near Vovchansk, northeast of Kharkiv City, with geolocated footage showing progress in northern Starytsya. Russian troops have entered Vovchansk, trying to secure positions in the northern part of the city, while Ukrainian forces moved to more advantageous positions nearby. Active battles continue, with firefights reported on Vovchansk’s northern outskirts and Russian sabotage groups attempting to establish positions. On May 15, Vovchansk Police Chief Oleksii Kharkivskyi and Kharkiv Oblast Governor Oleh Syniehubov confirmed the situation remains dire, with civilians being evacuated. About 200 to 300 people remain in Vovchansk, which had nearly 17,000 residents before the invasion, and fortification efforts are hampered by constant Russian shelling. Ukrainian forces repelled Russian attacks in the Vovchansk direction, partially pushing out enemy forces. Defensive operations continue on the town’s northern and northwestern outskirts, despite small Russian infantry units entering northern Vovchansk and attempting to establish a foothold.

Russian forces continued their offensive along the Kupyansk-Svatove-Kreminna line, with no confirmed changes to the frontline. They conducted assaults northeast of Kupyansk near Synkivka and Petropavlivka, southeast of Kupyansk near several villages, and west and southwest of Svatove. They also attacked northwest of Kreminna. Despite claims of Russian advances from Kolomyichykha towards Andriivka, there is no visual confirmation. Ukrainian forces briefly advanced to the northern outskirts of Kyslivka but were repelled by Russian forces.

Ukrainian forces made small advances in the Siversk direction (northeast of Bakhmut) amid ongoing Russian assaults. Footage shows Ukrainian forces advancing in a forest area between Vesele and Spirne. Russian assaults continued east of Siversk near Verkhnokamyanske, southeast near Ivano-Darivka and Spirne, and south near Rozdolivka. The Russian “Alexander Nevsky” Brigade is reportedly operating near Soledar.

Russian forces continued ground assaults near Chasiv Yar with no confirmed changes to the frontline. A Russian milblogger claimed they advanced into Kalynivka from the southeast, making it a contested “gray zone,” but this is unconfirmed. Russian sources also denied reports that Ukrainian forces moved three brigades from Chasiv Yar to Kharkiv, calling it misinformation. Russian assaults continued northeast of Chasiv Yar near Bohdanivka, in eastern Chasiv Yar, and in surrounding areas.

Russian forces reportedly advanced near Avdiivka, though there were no confirmed changes to the frontline. Russian milbloggers claimed they seized Umanske and advanced near Netaylove, Nevelske, and south of Pervomaiske, but this is unconfirmed. One milblogger noted a significant slowdown in Russian offensive operations in the area. Russian assaults continued northwest of Avdiivka near Kalynove, Novooleksandrivka, Sokil, Yevhenivka, Solovyove, Novoselivka Persha, Novopokrovske, and west of Avdiivka near Yasnobrodivka. Russian forces are reportedly near Berdychi.

Russian forces made small advances west of Donetsk City, specifically within Krasnohorivka. Ukrainian sources reported that Russian forces launched a mechanized assault near Novomykhailivka, where Ukrainian forces destroyed four tanks and six infantry vehicles. Russian milbloggers claimed advances to the southern outskirts of Paraskoviivka. Fighting also continued near Heorhiivka, Vodyane, and Kostyantynivka.

Russian forces made small advances in the Donetsk-Zaporizhia border area, particularly within Urozhaine, south of Velyka Novosilka. They continued assaults near Staromayorske.

The Russian Ministry of Defense claimed that Russian forces seized Robotyne, but this was disputed by Ukraine and unconfirmed by independent sources. Ukrainian Navy Spokesperson Dmytro Pletenchuk stated the claims were false. Russian milbloggers provided conflicting reports, with some doubting the MoD’s claims and noting Ukrainian presence in northern Robotyne. Russian forces continued operations near Robotyne and Verbove, with elements from various Russian brigades reportedly active in the area.

Fighting continued near Krynky in eastern Kherson Oblast. A Russian servicemember complained about the lack of electronic warfare systems and trained personnel on the Dnipro River Delta islands. Another servicemember reported Russian artillery accidentally hitting their own troops near Krynky.

Ukrainian Civilian Victims Of War

The casualty count of Ukrainian civilians in the past 24 hours:

DEATHS: 2 INJURIES: 30

  • Russian troops carried out an airstrike on Kharkiv. This follows new offensive operations by Russian forces in northern Kharkiv Oblast since May 10, leading to heavy strikes on Kharkiv and nearby border settlements. An explosion was heard in the city around 8 p.m. local time, hitting a five-story residential building in the Shevchenkivskyi district. Two men, aged 20 and 40, were injured and hospitalized.
  • A Russian airstrike on central Kherson injured at least 19 people, local authorities reported. Among the injured were a 15-year-old boy, his 53-year-old father, and an 88-year-old man. The strike damaged residential buildings, an educational institution, houses, cars, and a healthcare facility.
  • A Russian aerial bomb strike injured two nurses and a doctor in Mala Danylivka, a village on the outskirts of Kharkiv. The bomb hit a residential neighborhood, damaging a hospital and nearby cars. One nurse sustained a traumatic brain injury, while the head doctor suffered a concussion.
  • Russian forces attacked the city of Dnipro, killing at least two people and damaging infrastructure. Several people were injured, with their number and condition still being determined.
  • A Russian missile attack on Mykolaiv injured at least six people. The attack set fire to a car repair shop, covering 400 square meters and damaging the building and several cars.

A firemen standing in front of a burning building

Description automatically generatedThe aftermath of a Russian missile attack against Mykolaiv

Ukraine News

Russian forces launched limited missile strikes against Ukraine. They hit Kharkiv City with two S-300 missiles, according to Kharkiv Oblast Police Chief Volodymyr Tymoshko. In Mykolaiv, Russian forces targeted an automotive service station. In Dnipro, infrastructure was struck, but Ukrainian forces shot down a Russian Kh-59/69 cruise missile over Dnipropetrovsk Oblast.

President Volodymyr Zelensky postponed all his upcoming international events due to the battlefield situation in Kharkiv Oblast. This decision followed a report from top military officials. Earlier, CNN Portugal reported that Zelensky canceled trips to Spain and Portugal because of the challenging front-line conditions. He was expected to sign a security agreement with Spain. The Presidential Office stated that new dates for the events will be arranged and thanked international partners for their understanding.

On May 14, Defense Minister Rustem Umerov dismissed Brigadier General Serhii Baranov as head of the Missile, Artillery, and UAV Forces. This division specializes in strategic combat operations using missiles, artillery, and drones. Baranov, who led the division since 2023 and was promoted to Brigadier General by President Volodymyr Zelensky, announced he would be reassigned to another important role. The new head of the division has not yet been announced. Baranov previously served in key roles during significant battles, including the Donetsk Airport and Debaltsevo in 2014. This dismissal follows a series of high-level military command changes earlier this year.

The Energy Ministry reported a “significant capacity deficit” in Ukraine’s power system due to Russian attacks and unseasonably cold weather, leading to blackouts and energy restrictions. Since early 2024, Russia has launched five major attacks on Ukraine’s energy infrastructure, causing over $1 billion in damage. Emergency power cuts occurred on May 15 and the previous evening, with Ukraine receiving emergency electricity from Poland, Romania, and Slovakia. The ministry urged consumers to reduce energy use during peak hours. Ukrenergo, the state energy operator, stated that restrictions on industrial energy consumers would continue, but critical infrastructure will remain powered. Recent attacks have severely damaged key power plants, and Energy Minister Herman Halushchenko warned of potential electricity supply issues this summer and a difficult winter ahead. NOTE: I experienced a blackout from 22:00 – 10:00 overnight during my visit in Kyiv.

The Security Service of Ukraine (SBU) announced the arrest of five men and one woman for helping Russian forces direct a missile attack on a residential building in Pokrovsk, Donetsk Oblast, last August. The double-tap strike killed ten people, including rescue workers, and injured over 80. The suspects, recruited through Telegram channels, coordinated with a Russian Federal Security Service (FSB) handler. They also targeted Ukrainian forces in Avdiivka. All six face treason charges and could receive life sentences.

Ukraine’s public broadcaster stated that it did not receive a fine over Azovstal T-shirts worn by artist Alyona Alyona and her delegation at the Eurovision Song Contest. Alyona Alyona had initially claimed on Instagram that they were fined for wearing clothing with “Free Azovstal Defenders” logos but later edited the post. The broadcaster, Suspilne, confirmed there were no complaints or fines. Alyona Alyona and Jerry Heil secured third place at Eurovision with their song “Teresa & Maria.” The event was politically sensitive, with the European Broadcasting Union cracking down on performers supporting Palestine amid ongoing conflict. Russia remains banned from Eurovision since 2022.

A luxury yacht belonging to Ukrainian oligarch Viktor Medvedchuk was officially transferred to the Ukrainian state, according to Ukraine’s Asset Management Agency (ARMA). The 92-meter Royal Romance, valued at 200 million euros ($218 million), was seized by Croatian authorities in March 2022 due to EU sanctions on Medvedchuk. This marks the first time Ukraine has registered a seized asset located abroad. Proceeds from the yacht’s sale will go to Ukraine’s state budget. Medvedchuk, considered Putin’s ally in Ukraine, was charged with treason, re-arrested in April 2022, and later exchanged to Russia in September.

Ukrainian Mobilization and Defense Industrial Base

Ukrainian defense enterprises are increasing domestic production of advanced systems for the frontline. Ukroboronprom’s production has tripled, with plans to expand some areas tenfold in 2024. The company has boosted artillery ammunition production and is now producing 60mm artillery shells. The Ukrainian Ministry of Defense approved nine new land-based robotic systems for combat, evacuation, and demining.

Ukraine’s Allies

European Commission head Ursula von der Leyen, European Council President Charles Michel’s spokesperson, German Chancellor Olaf Scholz, Italian Premier Giorgia Meloni, Canadian Prime Minister Justin Trudeau, and French President Emmanuel Macron are set to participate in a summit, according to RTS. Switzerland did not invite Russia, citing its lack of interest, but hopes to involve Russia in the peace process eventually. Ukrainian President Zelensky has ruled out Russia’s participation as it continues its attacks on Ukraine. Swiss Foreign Minister Ignazio Cassis stated that Russia must be part of the peace process “sooner or later.” So far, 50 countries have agreed to attend the summit.

Politico reported that Ukrainian officials are urging Washington to allow strikes on Russian territory using U.S.-supplied weapons, citing a ban that prevented them from attacking Russian troops amassing near Kharkiv Oblast. Ukrainian parliamentarians are in Washington to gain support in Congress, arguing that the ban stops them from targeting Russian depots across the border. U.S. policy restricts the use of its weapons for defense only, not offensive operations inside Russia. The U.K. and some other countries have no such restrictions on their supplied weapons. U.S. Secretary of State Antony Blinken emphasized that Ukraine must decide how to use U.S. weapons.

US Secretary of State Antony Blinken announced a two billion dollar “defense enterprise fund” for Ukraine during a press conference with Ukrainian Foreign Minister Dmytro Kuleba. The fund will help Ukraine acquire weapons, invest in its defense industry, and purchase military equipment from the US and other countries.

The US approved the emergency sale of three additional HIMARS systems to Ukraine for $30 million, with Germany facilitating the purchase. HIMARS have been crucial in Ukrainian operations, including the Russian withdrawal from Kherson Oblast in 2022.

Western partners are pledging more air defense assets. Canada will contribute $55.7 million to a German-led initiative for IRIS-T air defense systems, and France will send a second batch of Aster missiles for the SAMP/T system to Ukraine.

Reuters reported that the U.S. Treasury warned Austria’s Raiffeisen Bank International (RBI) about potential restrictions on its access to the U.S. financial system due to its continued operations in Russia. As the largest remaining Western bank in Russia, RBI has faced pressure to scale down its activities. CEO Johann Strobl announced plans to exit Russia by summer 2024 to comply with European regulators. Deputy Treasury Secretary Wally Adeyemo expressed concerns about RBI’s presence in Russia and a now-scrapped $1.5 billion deal with a sanctioned Russian tycoon. The European Parliament also urged Austria to compel RBI to cease its Russian operations, citing the bank’s contribution to Russia’s economy and military efforts against Ukraine.

Estonia’s parliament passed a bill to use frozen Russian assets to pay for war damages in Ukraine. Estonia holds about 38 million euros ($41.3 million) of such assets. Prime Minister Kaja Kallas highlighted this as a historic precedent in Europe. The bill, which still needs President Alar Karis’s signature, is the first in Europe to allow this. Estonian lawmaker Hendrik Johannes Terras emphasized that Russia, as the aggressor, must compensate for the damages it caused.

Life in Russian-Occupied Ukraine

Ukraine rescued a 17-year-old boy, Denys, from Russian-held Zaporizhzhia Oblast, the Reintegration Ministry reported. Over 19,500 children have been abducted by Russia since the invasion, with fewer than 400 returned, according to the Children of War database. Denys, an orphan living under a neighbor’s care, sought to move to Ukraine-controlled territory. His aunt appealed to the ministry, and Denys now lives with her. He will soon go to a rehabilitation center in Truskavets, Lviv Oblast. The day before, Ukraine rescued six children from Russian-occupied Kherson Oblast, bringing the total to 84 children returned from that region in 2024.

Russia News

Ukraine’s Main Military Intelligence Directorate (GUR) reportedly struck a Russian fuel depot in Rostov Oblast with drones, targeting a military-used depot in Proletarsky Raion and causing a fire. Rostov Governor Vasily Golubev confirmed the drone strike but denied any fire or casualties. This attack is part of a series of Ukrainian drone strikes aimed at damaging Russia’s oil industry to undermine military operations and retaliate against strikes on Ukrainian energy infrastructure. The U.S. has criticized these strikes, fearing disruption to the global energy market, while President Volodymyr Zelensky defended Ukraine’s right to strike deep inside Russia.

On May 14, Russia’s new Defense Minister Andrei Belousov emphasized the goal of winning the war in Ukraine “with minimal human losses,” despite record casualties. Belousov replaced Sergei Shoigu in a reshuffle and stressed achieving the military goals set by President Vladimir Putin. Russia hasn’t disclosed military losses since September 2022, but Ukraine estimates 486,940 Russian troops lost, while France estimates 150,000 killed and 500,000 total casualties. Since Russia’s new offensive in Kharkiv Oblast on May 10, daily Russian losses have surged, with Mediazona and BBC Russia confirming 49,281 Russian soldiers killed. President Volodymyr Zelensky reported at least 31,000 Ukrainian soldiers killed, pending liberation of occupied territories for accurate numbers.

Russian President Vladimir Putin is concerned about the economic and diplomatic impacts of decreased Russian arms exports. He acknowledged the need to fulfill foreign arms contracts but prioritized military needs. Russia’s arms exports dropped by 53% from 2014-2018 to 2019-2023, affecting relations with countries like India, which is distancing itself due to delayed deliveries. Putin emphasized improving arms exports to sustain defense spending and maintain international relations, especially with non-Western countries.

The Kremlin confirmed new commanders for the Moscow and Leningrad military districts. Colonel General Alexander Lapin will lead the Leningrad Military District, and Colonel General Sergei Kuzovlev will command the Moscow Military District. Other changes include Lieutenant General Alexander Sanchik as the acting Eastern Military District commander, Colonel General Gennady Anashkin as the acting Southern Military District commander, and Colonel General Andrey Mordvichev continuing as the Central Military District commander. These appointments may be part of preparations for an anticipated summer offensive.

Russian sources suggest that the May 13 detention of Deputy Defense Minister Lieutenant General Yuri Kuznetsov may signal a broader anti-corruption effort within the Ministry of Defense. Following Kuznetsov’s and another official’s arrests for bribery, there are rumors of more potential arrests in high-level directorates. A Kremlin-affiliated blogger highlighted the long-standing issue of pervasive bribery, calling for action against corrupt officials to improve combat effectiveness and operational security.

Russian Mobilization and Defense Industrial Base

Russian President Vladimir Putin is prioritizing the mobilization of Russia’s defense industrial base while trying to ease domestic concerns about increased defense spending. He met with military commanders and defense industry officials, emphasizing the need to develop the defense sector and economy. Putin appointed Alexei Dyumin and Anton Alikhanov to oversee state-owned defense conglomerate Rostec, aiming to ensure the military gets necessary equipment. Despite significant defense spending, Putin assured that social obligations like education, healthcare, and pensions will be met, claiming that defense spending will also boost the civilian economy and job creation.

Russian President Vladimir Putin emphasized the need to improve the quality of Russian weapons, calling for the defense industry to increase production and create more effective and accurate arms. He stressed that technological superiority is key to victory, responding to Ukraine’s focus on innovation with Western-supplied, precise weaponry. Despite Russia’s numerical advantage, their forces have struggled to make significant operational gains. Putin remains reluctant to shift to a full wartime economy, facing issues like labor shortages and lack of domestically produced advanced goods.

Ukrainian National Security and Defense Council Secretary Oleksandr Lytyvyenko stated on May 15 that Russian forces have enough tanks and armored vehicles to sustain fighting in Ukraine for the next year and a half. Russia is using its vast Soviet-era equipment reserves to offset losses, with 25-40% of its tank reserves removed from storage since 2022. The Russian defense industry can produce and repair up to 600 tanks per year, but this limited production capacity means there’s a cap on how long Russia can maintain its current assault levels.

Kalashnikov Concern has taken control of optics manufacturer JSC Lomo to improve efficiency and reduce costs.

Russia’s Allies

Belarusian opposition railway workers reported increased efforts to conceal the movement of Russian military equipment and personnel between Belarus and Russia. They noted more communication between the Russian and Belarusian defense ministries and Belarusian railway operators but could not confirm the resumption of Russian transports. Previously, Russian forces used Belarus for training and to tie down Ukrainian forces at the border, and renewed deployments may aim to achieve similar effects.

Russian Narratives and Propaganda

Russian President Vladimir Putin gave an interview to China’s Xinhua News Agency, promoting China’s vague peace plan and reiterating the Kremlin’s long-standing call for negotiations. Putin aims to encourage Western concessions on Ukrainian sovereignty while portraying China as a credible mediator.

Source Materials

Institute for the Study of War – understandingwar.org
The Kyiv Independent – kyivindependent.com
Kyiv Post – kyivpost.com

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