Summary of the Day:
Russian forces have intensified their efforts to push Ukrainian troops out of Kursk Oblast, making significant advances in recent days. Reports indicate that Russian troops have progressed further into the main Ukrainian salient in Kursk Oblast, while also claiming to have eliminated most of a smaller Ukrainian salient in Glushkovsky Raion. Military analysts suggest this offensive is likely aimed at dislodging Ukrainian forces before poor weather conditions in Fall 2024 and early Winter 2024-2025 begin to hinder battlefield maneuvers.
The Russian military command appears to be prioritizing this operation to free up combat power for offensive operations in Donetsk Oblast and alleviate theater-wide operational pressures generated by the Ukrainian incursion. In addition to the advances in Kursk Oblast, Russian forces have also made recent gains near Pokrovsk and Kurakhove.
International involvement continues to play a significant role in the conflict. South Korean and Ukrainian officials have reported the presence of North Korean military personnel both fighting in Ukraine and training in Russia for potential future deployments alongside Russian forces. Meanwhile, Western partners continue to announce and provide new military assistance packages to Ukraine, bolstering their support for the country’s defense efforts.
On the diplomatic front, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky is pursuing efforts to establish and clarify Ukraine’s strategic vision for peace. These diplomatic initiatives run parallel to the ongoing military operations and international support.
In a concerning development, Ukrainian officials have confirmed the death of journalist Viktoriya Roshchyna while in Russian captivity. This news has raised further questions about the treatment of prisoners and civilians in the conflict zone.
Picture of the Day:
An Odesa resident eyes her smartphone in a park overlooking the port of Odesa. Odesa observes a day of mourning after a missile attack on the city’s port. Russian missiles struck a civilian container ship docked at the port, resulting in the deaths of several people. (Pierre Crom/Getty Images)
Beyond Ukraine – The March Towards World War
NATO defense ministers are set to discuss redefining the alliance’s relationship with Russia at a meeting in Brussels on October 17-18. This marks the first ministerial-level talks on revising the 1997 NATO-Russia Founding Act, which has remained in effect despite deteriorating relations following Russia’s invasion of Ukraine. The discussion aims to craft a new strategy reflecting the current geopolitical situation, with a final NATO-Russia strategy expected to be drafted at the 2025 NATO summit in The Hague. While the political strategy may change, military implications are expected to be minimal. New NATO Secretary General Mark Rutte has emphasized supporting Ukraine’s sovereignty.
Russian President Vladimir Putin spoke at an international forum in Ashgabat, Turkmenistan, positioning Russia as a leader in forming a “new world order.” He claimed that economic and political centers are emerging in the Global East and South. Putin expressed openness to discussing this new order with partners in organizations like the CIS, EAEU, SCO, and BRICS. This aligns with Russia’s recent promotion of a “Eurasian security architecture,” which aims to weaken Western unity and dismantle NATO.
Lithuania has fortified a bridge over the Nieman River linking it to Russia’s Kaliningrad exclave, escalating tensions in the Baltic Sea region. This move follows recent provocations, including a train displaying pro-Russian symbols at the Lithuanian-Belarusian border. Kaliningrad, a small Russian territory between Poland and Lithuania, hosts significant military assets, including the Baltic Sea Fleet. Experts warn of potential conflict scenarios, particularly concerning the narrow Suwalki Gap between Kaliningrad and Belarus. While a direct Russian attack on NATO territory isn’t seen as imminent, Lithuania’s actions signal readiness to defend against potential threats. The situation highlights growing concerns about regional stability, with increased incidents of GPS jamming and other disruptive activities in the Baltic Sea area.
Russian President Vladimir Putin met with Iran’s new President Masoud Pezeshkian in Ashgabat, Turkmenistan. It was their first meeting, occurring during an international forum honoring Turkmen poet Magtymguly Fragi. Putin noted their countries’ close cooperation and similar views on world events. They planned to discuss bilateral issues and the Middle East conflict. Pezeshkian won Iran’s runoff election in July following the death of former President Ebrahim Raisi in a helicopter crash in May.
The Path to Peace
Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky is actively pursuing diplomatic efforts to establish Ukraine’s peace strategy. He denied claims of discussing a ceasefire along current lines or territorial concessions to Russia in exchange for U.S. security guarantees and faster EU membership. The Ukrainian Foreign Ministry refuted allegations of willingness to compromise sovereignty or territorial integrity. Ukraine maintains its commitment to its Peace Formula, based on UN Charter principles and full restoration of its territory. In a meeting with Italian Prime Minister Giorgia Meloni, Zelensky emphasized creating conditions for honest diplomacy towards lasting peace, with Meloni affirming that peace cannot mean surrender for Ukraine.
Situation On The Land, Sea, and Air in Ukraine
Since October 9, 2024, Ukrainian forces have repelled 29 Russian attacks in Kherson and Zaporizhzhia oblasts, according to Operational Command South. Russia used 318 FPV drones and dropped 428 general-purpose bombs but made no gains. Ukraine warns of potential Russian breakthroughs near Orikhiv and Mala Tokmachka in Zaporizhzhia Oblast. This southern push coincides with Russian advances in eastern Ukraine, including the capture of Vuhledar in Donetsk Oblast on October 2. Ukrainian commander Oleksandr Okhrimenko reported that Russian forces outnumbered Ukrainian defenders in Vuhledar by about 9 to 1.
Ukrainian Operations in the Russian Federation – Initiative None
On October 10, 2024, Russian forces launched a counterattack against Ukrainian positions in Russia’s Kursk Oblast. Russian troops reportedly advanced through Ukraine’s left flank near Novoivanovka and Zeleny Shlyakh, approximately 15 kilometers from the Ukrainian-held town of Sudzha. While Russia’s Defense Ministry claimed successful penetration into Ukrainian-held territory, Ukrainian sources reported efforts to stabilize the situation on October 11. The incursion, which began in August, aimed to stop Russian cross-border attacks and divert troops from eastern Ukraine.
Russian forces have made advances in Korenevsky, Sudzhansky, and Glushkovsky Raions. Geolocated footage shows Russian forces advancing into central Kremyanoye and northern Zeleny Shlyakh, while encircling Ukrainian positions near Lyubimovka. Russian sources claim the capture of Olgovka and Nizhny Klin, progress towards Tolsty Lug and Novoivanovka, and breakthroughs near Martynovka and Mykhailivka. They also assert a 2km push north of Malaya Loknya and encirclement of Ukrainian positions near Plekhovo. In Glushkovsky Raion, Russians claim to have pushed Ukrainian forces back to limited positions near Krasnooktyabrskoye and Novy Put, with reported progress near Veseloye and Medvezhye. However, many of these claims lack visual confirmation.
Various Russian units, including naval infantry from the Pacific and Black Sea Fleets, airborne troops, and Chechen forces, are reportedly involved in these counterattacks. Russian sources claim to have encircled up to two Ukrainian battalions in Korenevsky Raion, but this remains unconfirmed. The dry conditions currently favor mechanized operations, but muddy terrain is expected soon. Russian commanders aim to prevent Ukrainian forces from entrenching themselves further, which would complicate future efforts to reclaim the area.
Ukrainian Commander-in-Chief Oleksandr Syrskyi reported that Russia has transferred about 50,000 troops to Kursk Oblast in response to Ukraine’s incursion. This redeployment has reportedly weakened Russian positions in other areas, including Zaporizhzhia, Kherson, and Kramatorsk sectors. Despite this, Russia continues its offensive in eastern Ukraine, forcing Ukrainian withdrawals from towns like Vuhledar in Donetsk Oblast. Intense battles are ongoing in Chasiv Yar and Toretsk, with Russian forces approaching Pokrovsk. U.S. officials believe Ukraine can hold its positions in Kursk Oblast for several months due to steady supplies and Russia’s focus on eastern Ukraine.
Ukrainian forces successfully attacked a Russian storage facility near Oktyabrsky in Krasnodar Krai on October 9-10, 2024, with satellite imagery confirming significant damage. The Ukrainian General Staff reported that the facility, targeted by Ukrainian naval forces and the Security Service (SBU), housed approximately 400 Shahed drones, representing a notable setback for Russian drone operations. Ukrainian Defense Forces have identified five key locations Russia uses to launch Shahed-136 drone attacks: Yeysk air base, Cape Chauda, Primorsko-Akhtarsk, and sites near Kursk and Orel. Reports suggest Russia is increasingly storing ammunition in or near civilian areas, a tactic observed in attacks on Sergeevka, Ostrogozhsk, Soldatskoye, Tikhoretsk, and Toropets. Ukraine has been targeting these depots, including recent strikes in the Bryansk region. This strategy of storing weapons among civilians poses a moral dilemma for Ukrainian forces, who must balance the military necessity of destroying enemy weapons against the risk of civilian casualties.
Kharkiv Front – Initiative Russia
Russian forces continued their offensive operations northeast of Kharkiv City near Vovchansk, Starytsya, and Tykhe. While no confirmed changes to the frontline were reported, the Ukrainian General Staff announced that their forces successfully shot down a Russian Mi-8 helicopter in the Kharkiv area.
Luhansk Front – Initiative Russia
Russian forces continued their assault along the Kupyansk-Svatove-Kreminna line without confirmed territorial gains. They reportedly attacked near several settlements, including Synkivka, Petropavlivka, Stepova Novoselivka, Kolisnykivka, Lozova, Stelmakhivka, Pishchane, Hrekivka, Makiivka, Nevske, Novosadove, Ploshchanka, Druzhelyubivka, Torske, and the Serebryanske forest area. Russian sources claimed advances near Andriivka, Kyslivka, and Nevske, but these claims remain unconfirmed.
Donetsk Front – Initiative Russia
Siversk
Russian forces attacked near Verkhnokamyanske, east of Siversk. No frontline changes were confirmed.
Chasiv Yar
Russian forces attacked near Chasiv Yar targeting Kalynivka, Orikhovo-Vasylivka, Ivanivske, and Stupochky. No frontline changes were confirmed. Ukrainian officials reported decreased Russian assaults but noted reinforcements arriving. Russian sources claimed Ukrainian withdrawals from western Chasiv Yar and heavy fighting in the eastern part of the town.
Toretsk
Russian forces have launched attacks on Toretsk and nearby areas in Donetsk Oblast, with Ukrainian officials reporting that Russia now controls about half of the town. Advances have been made along Tsentralna Street since late September, with attacks also occurring near Shcherbynivka and Niu York. The Russian strategy involves artillery strikes followed by small group assaults on Ukrainian positions, using a mix of contract soldiers, airborne troops, and special forces. Local official Vasyl Chynchyk confirms that Ukraine only controls 40-50% of Toretsk, a town once home to 70,000 people but now with only 1,150 residents remaining. Nearby settlements including Pivnichne, Zalizne, Druzhba, and Pivdenne are largely under Russian control. The situation is described as critical, with fighting occurring “at every building entrance.” Military expert Mykhailo Zhyrokhov warns that without reinforcements, the situation could become “catastrophic.”
Pokrovsk
Ukrainian and Russian forces made recent advances southeast of Pokrovsk. Ukrainians cleared Russian positions north of Novohrodivka, while Russians advanced to a concrete plant east of Selydove. Russian sources claim advances near Tsukuryne, Lysivka, and roads around Selydove. Fighting continues in several settlements including Myrolyubivka, Myrnohrad, Promin, and Kalynove.
West of Donetsk City
Russian forces advanced near Kurakhove, capturing western Ostrivske in a mechanized assault. They claim to be within a kilometer of Kurakhove, though this is unconfirmed. Attacks continue near Heorhiivka and Maksymilyanivka. A Ukrainian commander reports increased Russian mechanized assaults in the area, typically using mixed columns of tanks and armored vehicles, with electronic warfare systems deployed mid-column. These attacks are resulting in high Russian vehicle losses.
Southwest of Donetsk City
Russian forces attacked near Kostyantynivka, Katerynivka, Antonivka, Bohoyavlenka, and Zolota Nyva southwest of Donetsk City, with no confirmed gains. Various Russian units, including artillery, motorized rifle, special forces, and naval infantry, are active in the area.
Zaporizhia Front – Initiative Russia
Zaporizhia-Donetsk Border Area
Russian forces launched ground attacks in the border area between Donetsk and Zaporizhia Oblasts. The assaults targeted settlements near Velyka Novosilka, including Rivnopil, Novodarivka, Levadne, and Olhivske.
Zaporizhia Line
Russian forces continued attacks in western Zaporizhia Oblast, focusing on Robotyne and Mala Tokmachka, but made no confirmed progress. A Russian source claimed Ukraine unsuccessfully counterattacked near Kamyanske on October 10.
Kherson (Dnipro River) Front – Initiative Russia
Russian forces continued attacks in the Kherson area, but the frontline remained unchanged.
Ukraine News
Russia launched multiple missile and drone attacks across Ukraine. The Ukrainian Air Force reported intercepting 29 drones over various regions and disrupting 31 others. A critical infrastructure facility in Mykolaiv City was hit by ballistic missiles, with a Russian source claiming the target was a shipbuilding facility.
Russia’s recent missile strikes on Ukrainian ports are reportedly causing shipping insurance rates to rise, potentially impacting maritime traffic to Ukraine. Bloomberg reported insurance rates increased from 0.75% to over 1% of ship value due to attacks on three vessels, including a humanitarian cargo ship and two grain carriers. A Russian-affiliated source suggested these strikes could help achieve Russia’s goal of blockading Ukrainian ports, a strategy that previously failed due to Ukrainian counterattacks on Russian naval assets in Crimea and the Black Sea.
On October 10, former Ukrainian Air Force spokesperson Colonel Yuriy Ihnat reported that Russian forces damaged Western-provided Patriot air defense systems in Dnipropetrovsk Oblast during a missile attack on October 9. Despite this, the Patriot systems intercepted half of the incoming missiles. Russian sources claimed an Iskander-M missile hit a Patriot system near Pashena Balka, southwest of Dnipro City. Ihnat noted that Russian forces prioritize targeting these systems due to their effectiveness against Russian air operations.
President Zelensky met with Pope Francis at the Vatican for 35 minutes as part of his European tour to gather support for Ukraine’s five-step victory plan. The meeting occurred amid tensions caused by the Pope’s past comments on the war. They exchanged gifts, with Zelensky presenting a painting referencing the Bucha massacre.
Ukrainian Defense Minister Rustem Umerov announced several new appointments and structural changes in the Ministry of Defense. Serhiy Boyev has been appointed Deputy Defense Minister for European Integration, while Serhii Melnyk will oversee education, medicine, humanitarian support, and human capital policy. Umerov also established separate supervisory boards for the Defense Procurement Agency (DPA) and the Non-lethal Defense Rear Agency (DOT), aligning with NATO standards by keeping lethal and non-lethal procurement separate. These boards will include Ukrainian and international experts to reform the defense sector, aiming to minimize corruption risks and increase trust. This move follows a recent ministry shake-up and a change in plans to merge the agencies after NATO’s recommendation. The creation of these supervisory boards for the Defense Procurement Agency and State Logistics Operator indicates ongoing efforts to strengthen and reorganize Ukraine’s defense infrastructure. The specific members of the supervisory boards have not yet been announced.
Ukraine faces a challenging winter as Russia targets its nuclear power infrastructure. With 60% of Ukraine’s electricity coming from three nuclear plants, Russian attacks on nearby substations and power lines threaten to disconnect these vital power sources. Ukraine has already lost 9 gigawatts of power generation due to Russian strikes this year. The country may experience blackouts lasting up to 8 hours daily, potentially causing water and heating outages. International agencies warn this could lead to a humanitarian crisis and refugee movements. While Ukraine and its allies are working to repair and protect energy infrastructure, experts stress the need for stronger air defense systems to prevent further damage. The cities of Rivne and Pivdennoukrainsk, home to key nuclear plants, are particularly vulnerable to these attacks.
The Committee to Protect Journalists (CPJ) has called on Kyiv to stop obstructing Ukrainska Pravda’s reporting, following allegations of “systematic pressure” from the Ukrainian government. The media outlet accused the Presidential Office of attempting to influence its editorial policy. CPJ emphasized the importance of press freedom, especially during wartime. The Presidential Office has not responded to requests for comment. This situation highlights ongoing concerns about press freedom in Ukraine, despite progress since 2014. Ukrainska Pravda’s editor-in-chief, Sevgil Musayeva, compared the current pressure to that experienced during Leonid Kuchma’s presidency (1994-2005). The newspaper has a history of facing violence, with two of its journalists, Georgiy Gongadze and Pavel Sheremet, killed in 2000 and 2016 respectively.
Innocent Victims Of War
The casualty count of civilians in the past 24 hours: (Russian War Crimes)
DEATHS: 7 INJURIES: 27
In a recent attack on Ukraine’s Odesa district, Russia launched a ballistic missile strike, resulting in four deaths, including a 16-year-old girl. Ten people were injured, with nine hospitalized and four in serious condition. The attack destroyed a two-story residential and commercial building, killing three people under the rubble. Another woman later died in the hospital due to severe injuries.
Russian attacks on Donetsk Oblast resulted in one death in Novoselydivka and injuries to four people in Myrnohrad, Lyman, and Yampil.
In Kharkiv Oblast, Russian attacks killed a 64-year-old woman in Kruhlyakivka and injured a 77-year-old man in Kupiansk. Additionally, five people experienced shock after an attack on Cherkaska Lozova village.
Russian attacks on Kherson Oblast injured three people and damaged various targets, including a critical infrastructure facility, a car center, a gas station, and vehicles such as an ambulance and a trolley bus.
Russia fired an Iskander-M missile at a critical infrastructure facility in Mykolaiv, injuring three people and damaging five buildings. The resulting fire was quickly extinguished.
A Russian attack on Zaporizhzhia injured six people.
The aftermath of a Russian missile attack against the Odesa district, Ukraine. (Governor Oleh Kiper/Telegram)
Ukrainian officials have confirmed the death of journalist Viktoriya Roshchyna, 27, in Russian captivity, treating it as a war crime. Roshchyna disappeared in August 2023 while reporting in occupied Ukraine and was reportedly held in multiple facilities, including a penal colony in Berdiansk, a detention center in Taganrog, Russia, and Moscow’s Lefortovo prison. She was kept in solitary confinement in Taganrog from May to September 2024 before being moved to an unknown location. The Russian Ministry of Defense informed her family of her death on September 19, 2024. Roshchyna was supposed to be part of an upcoming prisoner exchange. Her case highlights the dangers faced by journalists in the Russia-Ukraine conflict, with at least 91 media workers killed and 30 still in captivity.
The EU has demanded a thorough investigation into Roshchyna’s death, expressing concern over suspected torture in Russian detention centers and emphasizing that there should be no impunity for human rights violations against journalists. Roshchyna is the thirteenth journalist killed since Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine. As of November 2023, Ukraine reported 4,337 Ukrainians in Russian captivity, including 763 civilians, though actual numbers may be higher due to limited access to detention facilities in occupied territories. Colleagues remember Roshchyna as a dedicated and fearless journalist who believed in firsthand reporting, even in dangerous areas. She had previously been detained by Russian forces in March 2022 and forced to record a video praising them for her release.
Ukrainian Mobilization and Industrial Defense Base
Ukrainian conscription officers detained some male concertgoers outside a Kyiv venue during an Okean Elzy performance. They checked military registration documents as men left the concert, arresting those with documentation issues or issuing summonses. This action aligns with Ukraine’s recent efforts to increase mobilization, including a new law signed in April 2024. The law requires eligible individuals to keep their military documentation updated and introduces penalties for non-compliance and draft evasion. Some enlistment offices have faced criticism for aggressive tactics in their mobilization efforts.
I finally got pulled over and had my documents checked at a military road post looking for men to conscript into the army. I have been a little offended that they never pull me over, suggesting that I look over 60. But I was blessed today by having my documents checked affirming that maybe I don’t look so old. The officer came over to me and when I smiled and told them I was an American, he just waved me on. But another officer quickly ran up and asked for proof that I was an American. I was in my cowboy hat, and he felt it a little suspicious that I may be a Ukrainian posing as an American. He took quite a while looking through my passport studying all my stamps to see what countries I have visited. But he eventually waved me on as well.
Ukraine’s Allies
Western countries continue to provide military aid to Ukraine. Norway allocated $90 million for defense projects, including equipment for Ukraine. Germany, Belgium, Denmark, and Norway pledged $1.5 billion in aid, including air defense systems and armored vehicles. The Czech Republic will deliver 500,000 artillery shells by late 2024. France plans to send 12-20 Mirage fighter jets in early 2025. Italy is considering increased investment in Ukraine’s defense industry, potentially creating joint enterprises. These commitments demonstrate ongoing Western support for Ukraine’s military needs.
During his 48-hour diplomatic trip to Western Europe, Ukraine’s President Zelensky visited leaders in London, Paris, Rome, and Berlin. In Rome, Prime Minister Giorgia Meloni announced that Italy will host the next Ukraine Recovery Conference on July 10-11, 2025, aiming to focus on the nation’s post-war reconstruction efforts. This announcement follows similar conferences in London and Berlin. Meloni reaffirmed Italy’s support for Ukraine, emphasizing the creation of conditions for peace negotiations over surrender, and announced an increase in military aid to Ukraine, providing $1.8 billion in weapons for 2025. The conference is expected to involve officials from 77 countries and about 1,800 attendees. The World Bank estimates that Ukraine needs $486 billion over the next 10 years to repair war damages. President Zelensky clarified that a ceasefire with Russia is not currently under discussion with European allies.
During his visit to Germany as part of his European tour to garner support, President Zelensky thanked Chancellor Scholz for Germany’s continued assistance and emphasized the need for ongoing aid. In 2024, Germany delivered a €600 million aid package, including air defense systems, vehicles, and ammunition. Scholz announced a commitment to provide an additional €1.4 billion package by year-end, which will include more air defense systems and other weaponry. Zelensky expressed gratitude for this crucial support, especially the air defense systems, which are vital amid ongoing Russian attacks and uncertainties regarding future U.S. support. This tour aims to consolidate backing for Ukraine’s five-step victory plan.
The World Bank approved a new fund to help fulfill the G7’s $50 billion loan pledge to Ukraine. This fund, part of a larger international effort including a €35 billion EU loan, aims to support Ukraine’s economy amid the ongoing Russian invasion. The funding, backed by interest from frozen Russian assets, will come from the U.S., Japan, and Canada. This development is seen as significant in ensuring continued financial support for Ukraine, especially given concerns about potential changes in U.S. policy after the upcoming presidential election.
As the U.S. presidential election nears, the discussion intensifies around Donald Trump’s connections with Russian President Vladimir Putin, stirred by claims in Bob Woodward’s new book that Trump communicated with Putin seven times after his presidency and covertly sent COVID testing machines to Russia during his term. Trump’s campaign has denied these allegations, yet they resonate with his prior commendations of Putin, raising concerns about the potential repercussions for U.S. and Ukrainian interests should Trump be re-elected. Despite criticisms, Trump’s administration did provide lethal weapons to Ukraine and engaged Russian forces in Syria. Meanwhile, U.S. House Speaker Mike Johnson on October 11 expressed hesitance towards additional Ukraine funding, suggesting that Trump’s re-election could quickly conclude the conflict by pressuring Putin. This election is pivotal for Ukraine, with Trump pledging swift conflict resolution if elected, in contrast to Vice President Harris, who advocates for no negotiations without Ukraine’s participation. Johnson warns that a Trump win might cease U.S. military aid to Ukraine and suggests a weariness towards the conflict, predicting an interminable war under a Harris administration.
Life in Russian-Occupied Ukraine
A report by Freedom House reveals that Belarus has deported at least 2,219 Ukrainian children from occupied territories to Belarus between 2021 and June 2024. The country hosts 18 re-education camps, part of a larger network including 67 in Russia and 13 in occupied Ukraine. Some children were later sent to Russian camps. The report highlights the militarization and anti-Ukrainian indoctrination of these children, potentially preparing them for future Russian military service.
Russia News
Ukrainian intelligence agency HUR launched a cyberattack on North Caucasus Federal University’s network infrastructure on October 11. The university trains specialists for Russian armed forces. The attack destroyed over 150 terabytes of data, affecting 11 websites, 7,000 workstations, and 135 servers. HUR also posted pro-Ukrainian leaflets on affected web resources. This operation aims to weaken Russia’s ability to train military specialists. Recently, HUR has conducted several other cyberattacks on Russian targets, including the Pravosudie court system, military supply websites, banks, and a digital signature certification center.
Chechen leader Ramzan Kadyrov has declared a “blood feud” against three Russian legislators, accusing them of seizing control of the online retailer Wildberries and plotting to assassinate him. This follows a dispute involving Wildberries’ co-founder Vladislav Bakalchuk, who led armed assaults on company offices in Moscow after seeking Kadyrov’s help. Kadyrov announced the feud in Chechen on Telegram, likely to avoid Russian media coverage. This move highlights Kadyrov’s growing boldness in personal political disputes, potentially challenging Putin’s efforts to present Russia as a harmonious multi-ethnic society.
Russian President Vladimir Putin signed a decree expanding the Defense Ministry’s authority. The ministry can now organize and oversee industrial safety procedures at facilities developing nuclear weapons, increasing its control over sensitive military technology.
A recent Levada Center survey shows growing dissatisfaction among Russians with the war in Ukraine. In September 2024, 47% of respondents believed the war caused more harm than good, up from 41% in May 2023. 72% would support ending the conflict immediately, though only 31% would agree if it meant returning occupied territories. Dissatisfaction is highest among women, young people, and small-town residents. Most cite deaths and suffering as reasons for their disapproval. While 54% support peace negotiations, the majority oppose making concessions to Ukraine. The survey, conducted across 50 Russian regions with 1,606 respondents, indicates a gradual weariness towards the war, though most Russians continue to leave major decisions to authorities.
Russian War Losses (Today/Total)
Ukraine’s General Staff reported the destruction of a Russian Mi-8 helicopter in Kharkiv Oblast. The Mi-8, a Soviet-era aircraft primarily used for transport but also capable of combat and command roles, is valued at approximately $10-15 million. No details were provided about how the helicopter was destroyed. The General Staff stated that Russia has lost 329 helicopters since the full-scale invasion began in February 2022. This incident represents another loss for Russian air forces in the ongoing conflict.
| Troops +1290
667630 |
Tanks +9
8962 |
Artillery +59
19381 |
Arm. VEH +27
17827 |
Aircraft
369 |
Heli
329 |
Ships
28 |
Russian Mobilization and Defense Industrial Base
Russian authorities are reportedly using deceptive tactics to recruit young women from Africa, Asia, and Latin America to work in drone factories under false pretenses in Tatarstan’s Alabuga Special Economic Zone, Russia. According to an Associated Press investigation, about 200 women aged 18-22 from countries like Uganda, Rwanda, and Kenya were falsely promised well-paid jobs in industries like hospitality but instead find themselves assembling Iranian-designed Shahed attack drones. These workers, including some Russian students as young as 16, face harsh conditions such as long hours, low wages, constant surveillance, and exposure to harmful chemicals without proper protection. The factory aims to produce 6,000 Shahed drones annually, part of a $1.7 billion deal with Iran. Human Rights Watch has raised concerns that these recruitment tactics may amount to human trafficking. Despite numerous complaints about pay and working conditions, many women continue working to support their families back home.
Samara Oblast in Russia has increased one-time enlistment bonuses to two million rubles (about $20,880) starting October 16, up from previous increases, to boost volunteer recruitment. Ukraine’s intelligence reports that Russia is using financial incentives to avoid another mobilization wave, which could spark protests. Russian officials are reportedly testing public reaction to potential mobilization through rumors. They believe financially motivated recruitment can sustain personnel needs until late 2024 without general mobilization.
Yekaterinburg city officials in Russia are offering 200,000 rubles ($2,090) to migrant families if a family member volunteers to fight in Ukraine. This incentive is now available even to migrants without permanent residency in the city, as part of Russia’s efforts to boost volunteer recruitment for the war.
Starting November 1, 2024, Russian servicemen will be able to receive veteran status certificates electronically through the Gosuslugi portal or at municipal service centers. This initiative, introduced by Defense Minister Andrei Belousov, aims to simplify the process for soldiers to access financial compensation and state benefits, addressing longstanding complaints about bureaucratic hurdles.
The Russian Ministry of Defense has allowed military registration officers in Bashkortostan to conduct medical examinations of soldiers on sick leave or those accused of military crimes at local enlistment centers. This change means servicemen on sick leave no longer need to return to their units for approval of medical referrals during combat situations, streamlining the process.
Russian Defense Minister Andrei Belousov announced advancements in military drone technology. He inspected the new Rubicon Center for Advanced Unmanned Technologies and ordered the formation of five drone detachments for deployment in Ukraine. The center will train combat crew specialists and instructors for active military units. Belousov reported that Rubicon detachments are already operating in Donetsk, Belgorod, and Kursk areas. This announcement comes amid recent controversy over the disbanding of a specialized drone unit and the deaths of drone operators in Donetsk Oblast.
Russia launched the “Yakutsk,” the final submarine in the Project 636.3 Varshavyanka-class series. Navy Deputy Commander-in-Chief Vice-Admiral Igor Mukhametshin announced that this diesel-electric submarine, built at the Admiralty Shipyards, is the sixth and last of its class for the Pacific Fleet. He noted that these submarines are equipped with high-precision weapons.
Ukrainian sources reported that Russian forces are modifying drones with radio communication jammers to defend against Ukrainian first-person view (FPV) drones. Ukrainian forces reportedly shot down a Russian drone equipped with a “Zerkaltse” device, which disrupts video signals from Ukrainian drones, interfering with their operation.
A Russian milblogger group is reportedly developing surface drones nicknamed “combat cockroaches” using electric hoverboards. These four-wheeled robots can allegedly carry up to 100 kilograms, travel at speeds of 12 kilometers per hour, and operate for three hours. They are said to have a range of two kilometers and can navigate various terrains, including tall grass.
Russia’s Allies
South Korean and Ukrainian officials report North Korean military personnel are present in Ukraine and training in Russia. Individual North Korean officers are observing Russian forces in occupied areas. Thousands of North Korean infantry are reportedly training in Russia, potentially for deployment to Ukraine by late 2024 or to Russian border areas. This could free up Russian troops for the Ukrainian front. A recent Ukrainian strike near Donetsk City reportedly killed several North Korean officials. The impact of potential North Korean deployments on Russian operations and Ukrainian opportunities remains unclear.
Belarusian news outlet Zerkalo reported that the country’s Ministry of Information added a pro-Russian integration Telegram channel to its list of “extremist materials.” The channel, titled “For the Union State of Belarus and Russia,” was deemed to have anti-Belarusian content. A Minsk Oblast court had previously labeled the channel’s materials as extremist on October 9.
Controlling the Narrative and Russian Propaganda
Actor Steven Seagal, now a Russian citizen, declared his willingness to fight for Putin in a new documentary released Oct. 10. The film, “In the Name of Justice,” shows Seagal visiting occupied Ukrainian territories, including Mariupol, and meeting Ukrainian POWs. He spreads Kremlin propaganda and claims readiness to “die if need be” for Putin. Seagal, who gained Russian citizenship in 2016 and moved to Moscow in 2021, has been a vocal supporter of Russia since the invasion of Ukraine began. Despite his statement, there’s no evidence the 72-year-old will engage in actual combat.
Source Material
Institute for the Study of War – understandingwar.org
The Kyiv Independent – kyivindependent.com
Kyiv Post – kyivpost.com