Summary of the day: Ukrainian forces executed a strike against Russian air defense assets in Crimea, possibly utilizing ATACMS, while denying reports of hitting a Russian landing ship in the Sea of Azov. New Russian Defense Minister Andrei Belousov met with milbloggers to build ties, aiming to garner support from the broader milblogger community. Concurrently, Russian, Iranian, and Chinese officials held bilateral talks at the BRICS foreign ministers meeting. Additionally, Russian troops made advancements southwest of Donetsk City and in the Donetsk-Zaporizhia Oblast border area. In response to ongoing conflicts and disinformation, the US and Poland launched the Ukraine Communications Group in Warsaw to promote fact-based reporting.
These updates will be shorter until the end of July and will only use the Institute for the Study of War as a source while we are on holiday visiting family and friends. We will be back to our normal coverage again starting on July 22, 2024.
What Can I Do To Help Ukraine? This is a question I receive all the time. We at Transform Ukraine are building longer-term housing for internally displaced Ukrainians. Visit Rebuild Ukraine for how you can assist in housing a Ukrainian family displaced by the war.
Beyond Ukraine – The March Towards World War
The Armenian National Assembly is expected to hold an emergency session by June 17, where opposition parties will demand the resignation of Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan and his cabinet. Radio Azatutyun reported that 33 opposition members from the “Armenian Alliance” and “I Have Honor” factions support the session to address what they view as Pashinyan’s failures in defending Armenia’s territorial integrity. Armenian law requires 27 out of 107 National Assembly members to call an emergency session. The ruling Civil Contract Party has stated its members will not participate in the session.
A Russian military aircraft briefly violated Finnish airspace, flying about 2.5 kilometers over the Gulf of Finland for two minutes. Finnish authorities are investigating the incident, which is seen as part of ongoing Russian efforts to undermine Finnish sovereignty. The Russian Ministry of Defense has not commented but reported flights over neutral waters in the Baltic, Barents, and Norwegian seas on the same day. This incursion is believed to further the Kremlin’s agenda to challenge Finnish territorial integrity.
Russian officials continue to threaten NATO member states in response to Western military aid to Ukraine, aiming to deter further support. Ukrainian Air Force Aviation Chief Brigadier General Serhiy Holubtsov announced that Ukraine will store some Western-provided F-16 aircraft at secure bases outside of Ukraine once received. Russian State Duma Defense Committee Chairperson Andrei Kartapolov warned that the Russian military would consider any F-16s used to strike Russian territory as legitimate targets, including those stored outside of Ukraine.
The Belarusian Ministry of Defense announced that Belarusian forces are conducting the second stage of tactical nuclear weapons exercises.
Situation On The Land, Sea, and Air in Ukraine
On June 9, Russian forces made a limited incursion into Sumy Oblast, Ukraine, advancing about 730 meters into Ukrainian territory near Ryzhivka. Chechen leader Ramzan Kadyrov claimed Chechen units seized the settlement, but there is no visual confirmation of their presence beyond Ryzhivka’s northeastern part. Ukrainian officials noted that Chechen sabotage and reconnaissance groups have been active in the area since winter. Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky accused Russia of a “propaganda operation” and stated Ukrainian forces removed the intruders. The incursion is consistent with previous limited Russian attacks near the Sumy border.
Ukrainian forces struck Russian air defense assets in Crimea overnight, likely using ATACMS missiles. Targets included S-400 and S-300 batteries near Dzhankoi, Chornomorske, and Yevpatoria, causing radar station damage and secondary ammunition detonations. Russian sources offered conflicting reports, with some claiming successful intercepts and others noting unreported losses. The Russian Ministry of Defense has not commented on the incident. Satellite imagery shows burn marks near Dzhankoi, but the extent of the damage is unclear.
Ukrainian strikes on Russian assets have caused Russian forces to change their deployment and transport patterns. The Atesh partisan movement reported that Russia moved air defense systems from Crimea to Belgorod Oblast, leaving Crimea less protected. Footage from June 8 shows Russia transporting fuel across the Kerch Strait railway bridge, which they had avoided due to Ukrainian threats. Ukrainian news outlet Militarnyi noted that Russian authorities resumed using the bridge after Ukrainian strikes on railway barges. This shift could ease logistics for Russia but makes the bridge more vulnerable to future Ukrainian attacks.
Ukraine’s Southern Operational Command Spokesperson Captain Dmytro Pletenchuk denied a Sky News report claiming Ukrainian forces struck a Russian Ropucha-class landing ship in the Sea of Azov on June 8-9. He confirmed the presence of three large Russian amphibious assault ships and three Buyan-M-class corvettes in the Sea of Azov. Sky News had reported the sinking or damaging of the ship, which was not confirmed.
Kharkiv Front – Initiative Russia
Ukrainian forces continued counterattacks north and northeast of Kharkiv City, while Russian forces made limited ground attacks in these areas. President Zelensky confirmed ongoing Ukrainian counterattacks near Hlyboke and Vovchansk. Russian milbloggers noted that Ukraine’s superior drone numbers are aiding their efforts. The Ukrainian General Staff reported Russian ground attacks near Lyptsi, Hlyboke, and Vovchansk, with additional Russian attacks near Zelene.
Luhansk Front – Initiative Russia
Russian forces continued offensive operations along the Kupyansk-Svatove-Kreminna line, but the frontline remains unchanged. Russian sources claimed advances southwest of Lyman Pershyi towards the Oskil River, seizing two railway stations. Ground attacks were reported southeast of Kupyansk near Stepova Novoselivka and Pishchane; northwest of Svatove near Berestove and Stelmakhivka; southwest of Svatove near Druzhelyubivka; northwest of Kreminna near Hrekivka, Nevske, and Terny; west of Kreminna near Torske; and southwest of Kreminna near Hryhorivka and the Serebryanske forest.
Donetsk Front – Initiative Russia
Siversk
Russian forces continued ground attacks near Siversk but made no confirmed advances. The Ukrainian General Staff reported attacks near Verkhnokamyanske, Spirne, Vyimka, and Ivano-Darivka. Russian milbloggers claimed advances in the chalk quarry area south of Bilohorivka, but this remains unconfirmed. They also reported shelling and an advance towards Rozdolivka.
Chasiv Yar
Russian forces are reportedly advancing in eastern Chasiv Yar. Russian milbloggers claimed gains in the Kanal Microraion, including high-rise buildings in the southeast, and movement west towards the Siversky Donetsk-Donbas canal. One milblogger claimed near-total control of Kanal Microraion, but visual evidence shows Russian forces still 700-800 meters east of the canal. Russian forces need to traverse or bypass the canal to fight in central Chasiv Yar. Ukrainian Lieutenant Colonel Nazar Voloshyn confirmed Russian forces have not crossed the canal. Heavy fighting was reported in Kanal and Novyi microraions, and areas near Kalynivka, Ivanivske, Klishchiivka, and Andriivka.
Avdiivka
Russian forces reportedly advanced northwest and west of Avdiivka, but no confirmed changes to the frontline were observed. Russian milbloggers claimed advances near the pond area in northern Novooleksandrivka, south of Sokil, and north of Novopokrovske, as well as around Umanske. They also reported heavy fighting on the outskirts of Karlivka. The Ukrainian General Staff confirmed Russian ground attacks near several locations around Avdiivka, including Yevhenivka, Novooleksandrivka, Novopokrovske, Novoselivka Persha, Prohres, Sokil, Yasnobrodivka, Umanske, and Karlivka.
Southwest of Donetsk City
Russian forces recently advanced southwest of Donetsk City, but Ukrainian forces successfully counterattacked and regained lost positions. Footage shows Russian forces advancing near Solodke, with Ukrainian forces later reclaiming these positions. Russian milbloggers reported Ukrainian counterattacks near Paraskoviivka and continued Russian advances near Kostyantynivka. The Ukrainian General Staff confirmed Russian ground attacks near Krasnohorivka, Heorhiivka, Paraskoviivka, and Kostyantynivka.
Zaporizhia Front – Initiative Russia
Zaporizhia-Donetsk Border Area
Russian forces have recently advanced in the Donetsk-Zaporizhia Oblast border area. Footage shows that Russian forces have moved into northern Staromayorske, likely seizing the entire settlement. The Russian Ministry of Defense and several officials confirmed this claim. Additional footage shows Russian advances in southern Urozhaine. Zaporizhia Oblast occupation deputy Vladimir Rogov stated that elements of the Russian 5th Combined Arms Army seized Staromayorske
Zaporizhia Line
Positional engagements continued in western Zaporizhia Oblast, with no confirmed changes to the frontline. Fighting occurred near Robotyne, Verbove, Kopani, and Mala Tokmachka.
Kherson (Dnipro River) Front – Initiative None
Positional engagements continued in eastern Kherson Oblast, including near Krynky, with no confirmed changes to the frontline. The Russian Ministry of Defense reported that elements of the Russian “Dnepr” Grouping of Forces crossed water obstacles, indicating ongoing operations on the islands in the Dnipro River Delta.
Ukrainian Mobilization and Defense Industrial Base
Ukraine’s Western partners are supporting its defense industry. On June 7, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky announced that Ukrainian and French defense companies signed an agreement to produce ammunition under the French company KNDS’s license. They also agreed to establish a service and repair center for KNDS equipment in Ukraine. French media reported that KNDS will create a subsidiary in Ukraine to produce military equipment and ammunition.
Ukraine is strengthening its defense industry. Brigadier General Serhii Holubtsov announced on June 9 that Ukraine is developing high-precision kits for Soviet-era bombs, like American JDAM-ER kits, with tests starting soon. The Army of Drones initiative revealed on June 4 that Ukrainian company Pegasus Arms created the Pegasus Arms 25 strike drone with an anti-electronic warfare system. The Ministry of Defense reported on June 8 that the Ukrainian military has introduced over 110 types of vehicles into service, including armored cars, trucks, ATVs, and electric motorcycles, with one-third being domestically produced.
Ukraine’s Allies
The US and Poland launched the Ukraine Communications Group (UCG) in Warsaw to counter Russian disinformation with fact-based reporting about the war in Ukraine. Representatives from various countries will collaborate with the UCG. The US Department of State highlighted that Russia uses false narratives to obscure its war aims and weaken global support for Ukraine.
Ukraine’s Western allies continue to bolster its war effort. On June 3, Italian Foreign Minister Antonio Tajani announced Italy will send a second SAMP/T air defense system as part of its ninth military aid package. The German Ministry of Defense revealed on June 6 that it will produce nearly €880 million worth of 155-mm artillery shells for Ukraine. The Netherlands and Denmark will provide €400 million to a Swedish fund to produce CV90 infantry fighting vehicles for Ukraine, and the Netherlands is also helping set up an assembly line for Patriot missiles in Germany. French company Thales Group will deliver a second ControlMaster 200 air defense system to Ukraine. The UK and Latvia have launched a bidding process for companies to supply FPV drones to Ukraine. Finland is sending materiel and innovations from its stockpiles, while Ukraine’s Deputy Defense Minister Dmytro Klimenkov announced that Ukraine is starting direct contracting with weapons manufacturers to modernize its military more quickly.
Russia News
New Russian Defense Minister Andrei Belousov met with select Russian milbloggers and military commentators, aiming to build ties with the broader milblogger community. This move is seen as an effort to use his appointment to improve relations following the unpopular tenure of former Defense Minister Sergei Shoigu. State news agencies TASS and RIA Novosti reported the meeting as “frank and constructive” and noted Belousov’s intention to hold regular meetings. Some critical milbloggers criticized their exclusion from the event, while prominent Kremlin-aligned milbloggers, including Semyon Pegov and Alexander Kots, attended and promised significant changes. The Kremlin is trying to present new Defense Minister Andrei Belousov as more attentive to milbloggers’ criticisms than his predecessor. While the Russian Ministry of Defense has often clashed with critical milbloggers, Belousov’s recent meeting with select pro-Kremlin milbloggers is seen as an attempt to gain their loyalty. This move is likely more about creating a favorable image rather than making real changes within the Ministry of Defense. Both the Kremlin and the Ministry of Defense want to appear open to dialogue with milbloggers, a key pro-war group.
Russian Mobilization and Defense Industrial Base
Russian Defense Minister Andrey Belousov is focusing on healthcare programs for Russian servicemembers. He met with Health Minister Mikhail Murashko and veteran advocacy groups to discuss medical treatment, including rehabilitation and prosthetics for soldiers from Ukraine. Belousov also visited the Central Military Clinical Hospital in Moscow to discuss improving its facilities. The hospital’s cardiac surgery center reported over 300 heart surgeries since the invasion began, with many soldiers returning to service.
The BBC Russian Service and Mediazona reported that at least 19,547 Wagner Group fighters died in infantry-led assaults during the battle for Bakhmut between January and August 2023. Using Wagner records of posthumous payments, they determined that over 20,000 Wagner personnel died between January 2022 and August 2023, with 90% of the Bakhmut deaths being penal recruits. Wagner recruited at least 48,000 penal recruits, mainly from maximum security prisons. January 2023 saw the highest casualties, with 200-213 deaths per day on the worst days.
The Russian drone designer Stratim Design Bureau showcased drones used by the Russian military in Ukraine at the HeliRussia-2024 exhibition in Moscow. They displayed the “Vorobei” (Sparrow) light reconnaissance drone, which operates at frequencies resistant to Ukrainian electronic warfare and can be controlled via smartphone. They also presented the “Golub” (Pigeon) munition-dropping drone, which uses AI to identify infantry automatically. Stratim Design Bureau announced the mass production of both drone models.
At the HeliRussia-2024 exhibition on June 10, Belarusian drone designer “Unmanned Systems” Minsk Design Bureau showcased the “Hunter” reconnaissance and strike drone. The “Hunter” is equipped with a remote-controlled turret featuring a 7.62mm machine gun, eight rockets, and 16 anti-tank bombs, capable of targeting surface drones, low-speed air targets, and armored vehicles. Additionally, the Russian “Dossier Center” reported that the Rus Design Bureau developed the “NRV-3800” drone, capable of carrying a supersonic missile. No other reports about the NRV-3800 have been observed.
Russia’s Allies
Officials from Russia, Iran, and China held bilateral meetings during the BRICS foreign ministers meeting in Nizhny Novgorod. Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov spoke about the expansion of BRICS and criticized the Western rules-based order, advocating for a multipolar world. Lavrov described BRICS as being driven forward by the “winds of change.” He also met with representatives from Brazil, South Africa, Ethiopia, Laos, Thailand, Sri Lanka, Kazakhstan, Saudi Arabia, and Egypt during the event.
Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov met with Chinese Foreign Minister Wang Yi during the BRICS meeting to discuss diplomatic coordination in international organizations like the UN Security Council. Both sides emphasized their strategic partnership and discussed the war in Ukraine, with Lavrov thanking China for its balanced stance. Lavrov and Wang also addressed stability in the Asia-Pacific, accusing the US of creating anti-Russian and anti-Chinese structures. Lavrov also met with Iranian Acting Foreign Minister Ali Bagheri Kani to discuss forming a Russo-Iranian strategic partnership. Kani highlighted the potential for expanding cooperation. Additionally, Kani and Wang discussed increasing their cooperation. Meanwhile, reports indicate that Russian President Vladimir Putin plans to visit North Korea after a visit to Vietnam.
Belarusian President Alexander Lukashenko met with Voronezh Oblast Governor Aleksander Gusev to discuss boosting economic cooperation in construction, agriculture, and radio-electronics. Earlier, Russian Deputy Minister of Industry and Trade Viktor Evtukhov mentioned joint Belarus-Russia projects in radio electronics, likely to evade sanctions.
Russian Narrative and Propaganda
Russian officials continue to discredit Ukrainian and Western reports of human rights violations against Ukrainian children and POWs. Russian Duma Deputy Anna Kuznetsova claimed that 161 children allegedly abducted by Russia were “found in Germany,” attempting to undermine evidence of forced deportations. Children’s Rights Commissioner Maria Lvova-Belova, implicated by the International Criminal Court for these deportations, said Russia has “accepted” over 700,000 children from occupied Ukraine since February 2022. Yale University found that over 14,700 Ukrainian children were likely deported to Russia, and Ukrainian authorities have identified nearly 20,000 such cases. Russian Commissioner for Human Rights Tatiana Moskalkova, in a meeting with President Vladimir Putin, claimed ongoing cooperation with Ukrainian officials on POW exchanges but blamed Ukraine for delays. This appears to deflect attention from recent Russian abuses against Ukrainian POWs.
Russian officials and Kremlin spokespeople framed the results of the June 6-9 European Union (EU) Parliamentary elections as evidence of European distrust in elected leaders. This is likely an attempt to sow division and create suspicion against European officials.
Source Material
Institute for the Study of War – understandingwar.org