Summary of the day: Russian President Vladimir Putin made significant changes in the defense and security leadership, appointing Andrei Belousov as Minister of Defense and Sergei Shoigu as Security Council Secretary. These moves suggest Putin’s focus on mobilizing the Russian economy and defense industry for prolonged conflict in Ukraine. Belousov’s background in economic management and DIB projects positions him well for the MoD role, while Shoigu’s shift echoes Putin’s pattern of sidelining security officials. Meanwhile, Russian forces advanced near Lyptsi and Vovchansk, reflecting ongoing military operations in northern Kharkiv Oblast amid continued Ukrainian strikes on Russian infrastructure.
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Picture Of The Day
An elderly woman who was evacuated from Vovchansk sits with her dog in a minivan at an evacuation point in the Kharkiv Oblast on May 12, 2024. (Roman Pilipey / AFP)
Beyond Ukraine – March Towards World War
Several German politicians from different parties support using NATO air defense systems in neighboring countries like Poland and Romania to shoot down Russian drones over western Ukraine. This would enable Ukrainian air defenders to concentrate on protecting frontline areas.
Kremlin-affiliated milbloggers are exploiting domestic unrest in Armenia and Georgia to discredit leaders like Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan.
Belarus and Iran are strengthening their cooperation, with Belarusian petrochemical companies signing agreements with Iranian counterparts at the Iran Oil Show. This ongoing collaboration includes military, economic, and technical aspects and may indirectly benefit Russia through the Union State framework.
Situation On The Land, Sea, and Air in Ukraine
Russian attacks persist in various sectors, but Ukrainian defenses hold, according to Commander-in-Chief Oleksandr Syrskyi. Fighting continues in Kupiansk, Siversk, Lyman, and Pokrovsk. In Donetsk Oblast, Russia’s assault east of Chasiv Yar failed, and they couldn’t reclaim lost ground near Klishchiivka. Kharkiv Oblast faces intensified Russian offensive since May 10. Ukrainian forces strive to maintain defensive lines amidst fierce battles. Despite challenges, rotations aim to bolster brigade readiness. Ukrainian troops clashed with Russian forces 155 times in the past day.
Sergei Aksyonov, head of the Crimean occupation administration, stated that Russian air defense had shot down a Ukrainian drone near occupied Simferopol.
Kharkiv Front – Initiative Russia
Luhansk Front – Initiative Russia
Donetsk Front – Initiative Russia
Zaporizhia Front – Initiative Russia
Kherson (Dnipro River) Front – Initiative None
Russian forces are exploiting Western restrictions on Ukraine’s use of Western-provided weapons to strike targets in Russian territory, hampering Ukraine’s ability to disrupt Russian offensive operations in northern Kharkiv Oblast. Although the UK recently allowed limited use of UK-provided weapons for this purpose, it came too late and is insufficient. Ukrainian forces have previously used US-provided weapons effectively but now lack the means to disrupt Russian logistics crucial for the offensive. This restrictive policy is aiding Russian troops in their offensive moves towards Vovchansk in northeastern Ukraine, likely aiming to encircle the city. As Vovchansk is on the border, Russian troops are maneuvering around the city from within Russia, protected by the policy that hampers Ukraine from using Western defenses to effectively stop these advances.
Russian forces have made additional confirmed tactical advances in northern Kharkiv Oblast, particularly in the Vovchansk direction. Geolocated footage indicates that Russian forces have seized southern Ohirtseve, surrounding Vovchansk. Ukrainian forces report difficulty due to lack of fortifications. Russian milbloggers discuss fighting within Vovchansk. It’s assessed that Russian forces likely seized Hatyshche and Tykhe. Russian forces have also attacked near Buhruvatka, suggesting consolidation of positions. Ukrainian observers note Russian advancements and deployment of motorized rifle battalions in the area. Ukrainian troops are locked in ongoing combat to defend Vovchansk in Kharkiv Oblast against Russian attempts to seize the city. Despite tactical gains by the enemy, Ukrainian forces are engaged in defensive operations, deploying additional reserves to stabilize the situation. Heavy fighting has resulted in over 100 Russian casualties reported today alone. The battle extends to other areas along the border, including “gray zone” settlements and sectors near the city. Evacuations of civilians from Vovchansk and its vicinity continue amid the escalating conflict.
Russian forces have made confirmed advances in the Lyptsi direction, north of Kharkiv City. Geolocated footage shows Russian forces advancing near Pylna and Lukyantsi. Fighting has been reported near Hlyboke and Lukyantsi. The Russian offensive towards Lyptsi is auxiliary to the effort towards Vovchansk. Russian forces have about three motorized rifle battalions in the Lyptsi direction and are bringing reserves. Ukrainian sources indicate ongoing counterattacks to contest control of contested areas.
Russian forces continued ground attacks along the Kupyansk-Svatove-Kreminna line with no confirmed changes to the frontline. Attacks occurred in various locations, including northeast of Kupyansk, east of Kupyansk, northwest of Svatove, west of Svatove, southwest of Svatove, northwest of Kreminna, west of Kreminna, and south of Kreminna.
According to the Ukrainian General Staff, Russian forces launched unsuccessful attacks in the Siversk direction near Verkhnokamyanske, Rozdolivka, Spirne, and Vyimka. Russian forces are reportedly present near Berestove.
Russian forces advanced near Chasiv Yar with claims of progress west of Ivanviske and seizing the Stupky-Holubovskyi-2 reserve. Assault operations resumed in Klishchiivka. Offensive activities continued in various directions around Chasiv Yar. Ukrainian forces reported intensified assaults and struggles against fortified Russian vehicles.
Russian forces advanced near Avdiivka with claims of movement towards Novooleksandrivka and Kalynove. Offensive operations continued northwest and west of Avdiivka.
Russian forces advanced west of Donetsk City, particularly in central Krasnohorivka, with claims of significant movement. Offensive operations continued west and southwest of Donetsk City. Ukrainian reports highlight Russian forces storming Krasnohorivka, facing logistical challenges. There are reports of Russian forces using civilian clothing to disguise themselves, considered illegal under international law.
Positional fighting persisted along the Donetsk-Zaporizhia Oblast border, with no frontline changes. Engagement occurred south of Velyka Novosilka, near Urozhaine and Staromayorske. Reports suggest the presence of Russian air forces near Blahodatne.
Russian forces reportedly advanced in western Zaporizhia Oblast, specifically near Luhivske and Novopokrovka. However, no confirmed frontline changes were noted. Positional engagements persisted near Robotyne, Verbove, and Novodanylivka.
Russian forces reportedly advanced in the east bank of Kherson Oblast, but no confirmed frontline changes were observed. A Russian milblogger claimed that Russian forces have seized Nestryha Island southwest of Kherson City, though this hasn’t been visually confirmed. Ukrainian forces repelled Russian assaults near Krynky.
Ukrainian Civilian Victims Of War
The casualty count of Ukrainian civilians in the past 24 hours:
DEATHS: 3 INJURIES: 8
- Russian airstrikes on Vovchansk, near the Ukrainian border, caused extensive damage, resulting in one fatality and five injuries. Further attacks wounded one individual. Dozens of houses were destroyed or damaged, trapping a family of four under rubble. Emergency responders rescued three, but one woman died.
- Russian forces shelled Hlyboke village, resulting in the death of a 63-year-old man.
- In Krasnopillia, one person was killed, and two others were injured due to separate artillery shelling incidents. The attacks involved mortar, artillery, missile, drone, and tank strikes, as well as explosive drone drops, totaling 157 explosions across 26 separate incidents. The town of Bilopillia bore the brunt of the assaults, with 53 explosions recorded.
The aftermath of Russia’s attack on the town of Vovchansk
Ukraine News
Ukrainian officials reported that Russian forces launched a ballistic missile at Zaporizhia Oblast, and Ukrainian air defenses intercepted a cruise missile over Kryvyi Rih, Dnipropetrovsk Oblast.
The Defense Ministry’s Military Media Center reported that Russia attacked 106 infrastructure sites in nine Ukrainian regions today, causing power outages in seven oblasts. Over 34,000 households lost electricity, with Donetsk Oblast being the hardest hit. This follows a mass energy infrastructure attack on May 8. Ukraine’s energy operator warned of a significant electricity shortage, prompting power-saving measures in Kyiv, including reduced street lighting and restrictions on industrial and business power usage between 6 p.m. and midnight. Households won’t be affected by these measures. Emergency electricity supplies were received from Poland, Romania, and Slovakia.
Civilians evacuated from northern Kharkiv Oblast due to increased artillery and air strikes, Governor Syniehubov reported. Vovchansk and Lyptsi face continuous enemy fire, with casualties reported. Ukrainian troops defend the region as hostilities spread. Recent offensive operations by Russia confirmed by President Zelensky. Commander-in-Chief Syrskyi states attempts to breach Ukrainian defenses halted, with ongoing fighting in various directions. Predictions of new offensive targeting Kharkiv Oblast made by Ukraine’s Presidential Office. Over 4,000 civilians evacuated in the past two days.
Russia News
Ukrainian forces persist in targeting Russian oil and defense industrial sites, prompting complaints from Russian military bloggers about Russia’s failure to defend against these attacks. Ukrainian drones reportedly targeted facilities in Kaluga, Lipetsk, and Volgograd Oblasts, with the Russian Ministry of Defense claiming to have destroyed some drones. Incidents include a drone-triggered fire at the Volgograd oil refinery and an attempted strike in Lipetsk. Russian military bloggers criticize Russia’s outdated defense methods and accuse commanders of dishonest reporting, asserting that Ukraine and the West demonstrate greater adaptability and efficiency in asymmetric warfare. These strikes continue a trend of increased drone attacks on Russian energy facilities, and while the Kyiv Independent couldn’t verify the claims, Ukraine’s military intelligence agency (HUR) confirmed its involvement in a previous attack on a Kaluga Oblast oil refinery. These actions have drawn criticism from U.S. officials, fearing disruptions to the global energy market, but President Zelensky defended Ukraine’s right to retaliate against Russian targets.
A section of a 10-story apartment building collapsed in Belgorod, Russia, as reported by Governor Vyacheslav Gladkov. He alleged that a Ukrainian projectile struck the building during an air raid alert, though this claim lacks evidence. Reuters later reported, citing Russian sources, that at least seven people were killed. The Russian Defense Ministry stated that air defenses intercepted six Tochka-U missiles and six rockets over Belgorod Oblast, with one missile fragment damaging the residential building. Local officials did not confirm casualties, while state media cited 20 injuries. There’s a risk of further collapse, according to TASS. Ukrainian officials didn’t comment, and the Kyiv Independent couldn’t verify the reports.
Russian President Vladimir Putin made significant changes in his government’s defense and security leadership, replacing Sergei Shoigu with Andrei Belousov as Minister of Defense, with Shoigu assuming the role of Security Council Secretary. These moves indicate Putin’s focus on mobilizing Russia’s defense industry for potential conflicts in Ukraine and potential confrontations with NATO. Kremlin spokesperson Dmitry Peskov confirmed the reshuffle, also noting that Army General Valery Gerasimov would remain Chief of the Russian General Staff. Belousov’s appointment underscores Putin’s emphasis on economic factors in defense strategy, aiming to integrate defense industries with the wider economy to address concerns over corruption and inefficiency. Additionally, Putin’s replacement of Patrushev with Shoigu as Security Council Secretary suggests potential shifts in Russian security strategy, while retaining key security figures like Kolokoltsev, Naryshkin, Bortnikov, and Zolotov demonstrates his reliance on trusted allies for stability amidst challenges.
Russian Mobilization and Defense Industrial Base
Dmitry Rogozin, former head of Roscosmos, highlighted Russian forces’ ongoing struggle against Ukrainian drones. He emphasized the need for alternative methods, suggesting the use of smoke screens, oily aerosols, and interceptor drones to counter the threat. Rogozin stated that while Russia possesses these capabilities, they are not yet widely deployed.
Russia’s Allies
South Korea’s intelligence agency, the National Intelligence Service (NIS), is investigating allegations that North Korea supplied Russia with artillery shells and other weapons from the 1970s. Recent South Korean media claims suggest that North Korean-made artillery shells were used by Russia in attacks on Ukraine. The NIS is analyzing this situation and monitoring overall military cooperation between North Korea and Russia. Amid concerns, North Korea may be supplying older weapons to develop new ones. North Korea has emerged as a key weapons supplier to Russia, including ballistic missiles and over 3 million artillery shells. South Korean Defense Minister Shin Won-sik stated that North Korea has shipped thousands of ammunition containers to Russia since September 2023, likely in exchange for food and other necessities. There are concerns that Russia may acquire advanced missiles from North Korea for use in Ukraine, as highlighted by U.S. State Secretary Antony Blinken. A U.N. report concluded that Russia used missiles procured from North Korea in a strike on Kharkiv, violating U.N. sanctions.
Russian Narrative and Propaganda
Kremlin information operations aim to deter Western intervention, allowing Russian forces to launch offensives without fear of Ukrainian strikes against military assets. Putin and Kremlin officials regularly accuse Western states of provocations for supporting Ukraine militarily. Despite US military aid to Ukraine, the Kremlin continues this rhetoric to hinder Ukrainian defense efforts. This strategy aims to force Ukraine into less effective defense measures, creating opportunities for Russian forces on other fronts.
Russian milbloggers are stepping up efforts to undermine Ukrainian morale by spreading claims of government incompetence and lack of support during the northern Kharkiv offensive.
Source Materials
Institute for the Study of War – understandingwar.org
The Kyiv Independent – kyivindependent.com
Kyiv Post – kyivpost.com