Summary of the Day:
Russian forces claimed full control of Velyka Novosilka marking a significant territorial gain, while also making advances near Borova, Pokrovsk, and Kurakhove. The Russian Ministry of Defense is giving unusual attention to the Velyka Novosilka capture, likely attempting to influence Western perceptions of the battlefield situation and impact international support for Ukraine.
Russian forces are positioned to capture Toretsk in the coming days, though Ukrainian forces have regained some positions in the area. This advance could enable Russian forces to push toward Kostyantynivka across more open terrain. The Russian military command faces a strategic decision on whether to redeploy Eastern Military District elements from Velyka Novosilka to support other priority operations for Spring and Summer 2025.
Ukrainian forces conducted their second strike in three days on Russia’s Ryazan Oil Refinery, one of Russia’s four largest refineries producing military fuel supplies. Ukrainian forces also made advances in Kursk Oblast. Meanwhile, Russian military bloggers criticized their government’s failure to prioritize the recruitment and training of Russia’s next generation of military officers.
Picture of the Day:
A vehicle of the Ukrainian White Angels police evacuation team rolls down a street in Pokrovsk as Russian troops advance close to the city. (Genya Savilov / AFP via Getty Images)
Beyond Ukraine – The March Towards World War
Alexander Lukashenko secured another term as Belarus president in a rigged election claiming 87.6% of the vote. Unlike the mass protests that followed his 2020 election, citizens stayed home this time, heeding opposition leader Sviatlana Tsikhanouskaya’s warnings about severe government repression. Lukashenko’s regime took extensive measures to prevent protests, including holding winter elections instead of summer, limiting internet access during voting, and implementing harsh policies against opposition parties. This continued authoritarian control in Belarus, a key Russian ally, further destabilizes regional democracy and security in Eastern Europe.
Russia continues to expand its military presence in Belarus, with President Lukashenko announcing the imminent arrival of Russian Oreshnik ballistic missiles, possibly to be stationed near Orsha. While Lukashenko claims this deployment is a response to US missiles in Europe and will protect Belarus, it actually represents further erosion of Belarusian sovereignty. According to military analysts, this deployment doesn’t significantly change Russia’s military capabilities against Europe or Ukraine, as similar weapons are already positioned in Kaliningrad and Russia. This development further illustrates Russia’s increasing control over Belarus, heightening concerns about regional stability and the independence of former Soviet states.
A crucial underwater fiber-optic cable connecting Latvia’s Ventspils to Sweden’s Gotland island was damaged, marking the second major infrastructure incident in the Baltic Sea region since December. While data transmission continues through alternate routes, the damage, located in Sweden’s economic zone, has prompted NATO to dispatch additional patrol ships. This follows December’s damage to four telecommunication cables and a power cable, initially suspected to be Russian sabotage. Though U.S. and European intelligence now lean toward maritime accidents as the cause, the incidents have heightened regional tensions, particularly given Russia’s increased presence in the Baltic Sea since its invasion of Ukraine. The situation underscores growing concerns about the vulnerability of critical infrastructure in the region and its potential impact on regional stability and NATO-Russia relations.
Situation On The Land, Sea, and Air in Ukraine
Russian sources reported that Ukrainian forces tried but failed to cross the Russian-Ukrainian border near Tetkino. Some Russian military bloggers described this as a reconnaissance mission rather than a full assault.
Ukrainian Operations in the Russian Federation – Initiative Russia
Ukrainian forces made small advances in Kursk Oblast, specifically in central Pogrebki and in the forest northwest of Kositsa. Russian airborne divisions and motorized rifle units are currently operating in these areas, with fighting continuing in the Ukrainian salient.
Ukrainian forces struck the Ryazan Oil Refinery in Russia for the second time in three days, targeting one of Russia’s four largest refineries. The facility produces fuel for military vehicles, aircraft, and ships. Russian officials claim they shot down eight Ukrainian drones during the attack, though footage confirms a fire at one of the refinery’s tanks.
Ukrainian forces successfully struck drone storage facilities in Russia’s Oryol Oblast destroying over 200 Iranian-made Shahed drones. The attack targeted structures housing thermobaric warheads, causing significant secondary explosions.
Kharkiv Front – Initiative Russia
Russian forces attacked near Vovchansk, northeast of Kharkiv City, but failed to make progress. Ukrainian forces reportedly destroyed four Russian infantry fighting vehicles in the area.
Luhansk Front – Initiative Russia
Kupyansk
Russian forces attacked in the Kupyansk area but made no confirmed advances. Near Pishchane, Ukrainian forces destroyed four Russian armored vehicles during an assault toward Kupyansk-Vuzlovyi. North of Kupyansk, Russian troops attempted to cross the Oskil River near Dvorichna using small boats at night, as the unfrozen river prevented larger crossings. Russian forces also conducted operations near Stepova Novoselivka, Petropavlivka, Pishchane, and Hlushkivka.
Borova
Russian forces advanced in the Borova area capturing eastern Tverdokhlibove and Novoyehorivka, as confirmed by footage showing Russian troops raising their flag. Russian forces also attacked near multiple settlements including Kolisnykivka, Nova Kruhlyakivka, Lozova, Zelenyi Hai, Zahryzove, Nadiya, Pershotravneve, Kopanky, Hrekivka, Makiivka, Novoserhiivka, Druzhelyubivka. Ukrainian forces reported repelling attacks near Kolisnykivka and Zahryzove, claiming they destroyed most Russian equipment used in recent mechanized assaults.
Lyman
Russian forces attacked in the Lyman area but made no confirmed advances. Russian sources claimed their forces reached the outskirts of Kolodyazi, though some reported their small-group tactics to enter the settlement were unsuccessful. Russian forces also conducted operations near Yampolivka, Terny, Ivanivka, Novolyubivka, and Torske. Ukrainian officials reported that Russians typically attack in small teams rather than larger mechanized assaults, using a tactic where an unarmed soldier advances first to reveal Ukrainian positions.
Donetsk Front – Initiative Russia
Siversk
Russian forces attacked near Verkhnokamyanske, east of Siversk, but failed to gain ground. A Ukrainian National Guard officer reported that Russian forces are experimenting with nets on drones to counter Ukrainian drones, though with mixed results. The officer noted that both sides have equal numbers of drones, and suggested Russian equipment shortages as their forces try to salvage various vehicles and equipment from the battlefield.
Chasiv Yar
Russian forces attacked Chasiv Yar but made no confirmed advances, despite claims of reaching Tsentralna Street and the town’s southern outskirts. They also conducted attacks near Orikhovo-Vasylivka, Novomarkove, Stupochky, Bila Hora, and Predtechyne. A Ukrainian spokesperson reported that well-trained Russian airborne units and Chechen special forces are operating in the area, conducting daily small-group assaults, particularly during poor weather conditions when drone use is limited. Russian forces are reportedly using canal pipes for movement and concealment.
Toretsk
Russian forces are close to capturing Toretsk and may soon shift their focus toward Kostyantynivka. After taking Toretsk, Russian forces could advance more quickly across the open terrain to the west, rather than fighting through urban areas as they have been. They may also try to eliminate the Ukrainian position southwest of Toretsk to secure their southern flank before pushing toward Kostyantynivka. This potential new offensive direction would mark a change from Russia’s previous main objective of seizing Pokrovsk, which they’ve pursued since February 2024.
Ukrainian forces recaptured some positions in northwestern Toretsk with Ukrainian commanders confirming they hold positions within the town’s boundaries. Russian forces continued attacks in and around Toretsk, including near the Toretska Mine, while claiming unconfirmed advances in nearby Krymske and Petrivka.
Pokrovsk
Russian forces made a small advance north of Kotlyne, west of Pokrovsk. A Ukrainian National Guard spokesperson reported that Russian forces are using armored vehicles to transport infantry with tank support. While Russian sources claimed to have captured Zelene and made advances near several locations including Udachne, Novoyeliyzavetivka, and Nadiivka, only the capture of Zelene has been confirmed. Russian forces conducted attacks across a wide area around Pokrovsk, including near Vozdvyzhenka, Vodyane Druhe, Myrolyubivka, Yelyzavetivka, Promin, Lysivka, Novoukrainka, Zvirove, Novovasylivka, Novooleksandrivka, Uspenivka, Novoserhiivka, and Bohdanivka.
Kurakhove Region
Russian forces advanced to the eastern outskirts of Dachne, west of Kurakhove. While Russian sources claimed advances near Sribne, Andriivka, and Sukhi Yaly, and suggested they were working to encircle Ukrainian forces near Ulakly, these claims remain unconfirmed. Russian forces conducted attacks across the Kurakhove area, including near Shevchenko, Kostiantynopil, Kostiantynopolske, and Yantarne.
Velyka Novosilka
Russian forces have advanced in Velyka Novosilka, now controlling approximately 89% of the settlement according to recent evidence. While the Russian Ministry of Defense claims complete control, Ukrainian forces maintain some positions within the settlement. A Ukrainian brigade reports ongoing fighting and states they are not at risk of encirclement. Both sides face challenges using heavy equipment in the area, with Russia holding a significant manpower advantage but equal capabilities in artillery and drones. Combat operations continue within Velyka Novosilka and nearby areas including Rozdolne and Novosilka.
The Russian Ministry of Defense is giving unusual attention to their claimed capture of Velyka Novosilka, likely as a propaganda effort to influence Western opinions and reduce support for Ukraine. While they released multiple videos and announcements claiming victory, including footage of Russian flags and thermobaric artillery strikes, Russia’s actual advances in western Donetsk Oblast remain slow and limited. Military analysts note that nearby rivers will likely slow further Russian advances, as Russian forces have historically struggled with river crossings. The intense focus on this single settlement appears to be part of a broader information campaign rather than reflecting a major military breakthrough.
The capture of Velyka Novosilka presents Russia’s military command with key strategic decisions about deploying their Eastern Military District (EMD) forces, which have been fighting in this area since early 2023. After capturing Vuhledar in late 2024 and now Velyka Novosilka, Russia has several options: They could keep EMD forces in western Donetsk Oblast to push toward the Dnipropetrovsk border, though these units may be depleted after six months of intense combat. Alternatively, they might redeploy most EMD forces to other active fronts while leaving a smaller force to hold Velyka Novosilka, which is naturally protected by the Mokri Yaly River. Where Russia chooses to redeploy these forces – whether to Kupyansk, Borova, Chasiv Yar, Toretsk, Pokrovsk, or potentially Zaporizhia Oblast – will likely indicate their strategic priorities for military operations in spring and summer 2025.
Zaporizhia Front – Initiative Russia
Both Ukrainian and Russian sources reported no Russian offensive operations in the Zaporizhia region. A Ukrainian brigade spokesperson noted only an increase in Russian use of fiber optic drones in the area.
Kherson (Dnipro River) Front – Initiative Russia
Russian forces attacked Zabych and Kozatskyi islands in the Dnipro River Delta near Kherson City but failed to gain any ground.
Ukraine News
Russia launched a major aerial assault against Ukraine, including 72 Shahed drones and decoys from multiple Russian regions. Ukrainian forces intercepted 50 drones across eight provinces, with strikes damaging civilian infrastructure in Sumy City and residential areas in four districts of Kharkiv City. President Zelensky reported that between January 20-26, Russia launched 1,250 glide bombs, over 750 FPV drones, and more than 220 missiles at Ukraine. During this period, Ukrainian air defenses successfully intercepted hundreds of various Russian aerial weapons.
President Zelensky appointed Major General Mykhailo Drapatyi to lead the Khortytsia operational-strategic group in Donetsk region while maintaining his role as Commander of Ukraine’s Ground Forces. Drapatyi, who previously helped liberate Mariupol in 2014 and commanded the 58th Infantry Brigade, will focus on intense combat areas and brigade training. Additionally, Brigadier General Andrii Hnatov was appointed Deputy Chief of the General Staff to improve front-line coordination.
Innocent Victims Of War
The casualty count of civilians in the past 24 hours: (Russian War Crimes)
DEATHS: 0 INJURIES: 0
Russia launched drone attacks, targeting multiple Ukrainian cities including Ivano-Frankivsk, Khmelnytskyi, and Dnipro. In Dnipro, a multi-story residential building was damaged, affecting its upper floors and nearby parked vehicles, though no casualties were reported.
Russia News
A Russian “smart bomb” (UMPB-250) accidentally landed in Russia’s Belgorod Oblast causing no damage or casualties. This incident highlights Russia’s increasing use of modified Soviet-era bombs equipped with modern guidance systems. These “glide bombs” have been particularly devastating in attacks on Ukrainian territories, especially Kharkiv, Sumy, Zaporizhzhia, and recently Dnipropetrovsk oblasts. The weapons are difficult to intercept with conventional air defenses due to their design and allow Russian aircraft to strike while staying beyond the range of Ukrainian defense systems, including U.S. Patriot missiles.
Russian War Losses (Today/Total)
Troops +1430
831620 |
Tanks +3
9871 |
Artillery +16
22339 |
Arm. Veh. +12
20561 |
Aircraft 
369 |
Heli
331 |
Ships
28 |
Russia Mobilization and Defense Industrial Base
Russian military bloggers criticized their government for failing to properly recruit and train new military officers. They highlighted issues including poor cadet training at military academies, inadequate wages, and the expulsion of new contract soldiers in 2024. The bloggers noted that while Russian youth may be patriotic, the government is not effectively harnessing this potential, with one Kremlin-affiliated blogger suggesting changes to youth policies and propaganda.
Source Material
Institute for the Study of War – understandingwar.org
The Kyiv Independent – kyivindependent.com
Kyiv Post – kyivpost.com