Summary of the Day:
The Biden administration has expanded Ukraine’s tactical options, authorizing the use of US-provided ATACMS for limited strikes against Russian and North Korean military targets within Kursk Oblast, according to reports from the New York Times and Washington Post. This development comes as Russia executed its most substantial missile and drone assault since August 2024 on Ukrainian energy infrastructure. Russian forces demonstrated tactical innovation by reportedly using Kalibr cruise missiles as decoys to exhaust Ukrainian air defenses.
In a significant counter-move, Ukrainian forces conducted their first strike against a defense industrial factory in Russia’s Udmurt Republic. Meanwhile, North Korea continues to provide military support to Russia, including rocket and artillery systems and potential additional troop deployments. While this assistance may impact immediate Russian operations, analysts suggest its long-term strategic value remains limited.
On the ground, Russian forces have made advances near several key locations including Kupyansk, Chasiv Yar, Kurakhove, and Vuhledar. Looking toward Winter 2024-2025, Russian forces are expected to prioritize urban combat operations to seize frontline Ukrainian towns and cities, partly as a strategy to offset Ukrainian drone advantages and possible armored vehicle constraints.
Russian President Putin’s position remains uncompromising, maintaining demands for complete Ukrainian capitulation. However, a notable Kremlin-affiliated military blogger appears to be attempting to reframe long-standing territorial claims in southern Ukraine as less severe “peace proposals” – though military analysts note these would still pose significant threats to Ukraine, Moldova, and NATO. Internal dynamics within Russian forces have also surfaced, with military bloggers praising the removal of 3rd Combined Arms Army commanders who allegedly submitted false reports about advances in the Siversk direction.
Picture of the Day:
Police and rescuers load onto a truck a fragment of a downed Russian hypersonic missile Zircon, which struck a five-story residential building in Kyiv during a mass missile and drone barrage. (Sergei Supinsky / AFP)
Beyond Ukraine – The March Towards World War
A critical meeting between U.S. President Biden and Chinese President Xi Jinping in Lima highlighted escalating threats to global peace. The revelation that North Korea has deployed 11,000 troops to Russia’s Kursk Oblast, along with artillery and missiles, marks a dangerous expansion of the Ukraine conflict that could destabilize both European and Indo-Pacific regions. Adding to these concerns, evidence suggests China is supporting Russia’s defense industry by producing attack drones, despite claiming neutrality. Xi’s statement that China “would not sit idly by” while its strategic interests are threatened, coupled with the impending U.S. leadership transition in January 2025, raises serious concerns about the future of global security and peace efforts. The convergence of North Korean military support for Russia and China’s industrial backing of Russia’s war effort represents a significant challenge to international stability.
A dangerous escalation in the Russia-Ukraine conflict sent shockwaves through international security Sunday as Poland, a NATO member, was forced to mobilize military forces and scramble fighter jets in response to a massive Russian attack along its border. The extensive missile and drone assault on Ukraine’s energy infrastructure, striking cities from Zaporizhzhia to Odessa, Mykolaiv, and Chernihiv, threatens to further destabilize Eastern Europe and test NATO’s collective defense commitments. This aggressive Russian action near NATO territory heightens the risk of unintended conflict escalation and undermines efforts for diplomatic solutions in the region.
A growing crisis in Abkhazia could destabilize an already tense region near Russia. Protests against de facto President Aslan Bzhania began over a proposed agreement that would expand Russian influence by granting Russian entities property rights in Abkhazia. The situation has escalated from protesting this Russian expansion to demands for Bzhania’s resignation. His refusal to step down and labeling of the protests as a coup attempt raises concerns about potential civil unrest in this strategically sensitive region bordering Russia and Georgia. The crisis risks further destabilizing the Black Sea region, which is already strained by the ongoing Russian-Ukrainian war and could provide Russia another opportunity to extend its influence in the area.
The Path to Peace
Russian President Putin’s stance on Ukraine remains unchanged according to German Chancellor Olaf Scholz following their first conversation in two years – timing that drew criticism from Ukraine’s Foreign Ministry as potentially signaling reduced isolation to Putin. This diplomatic outreach preceded Russia’s massive drone and missile attack today. Russian military analyst Mikhail Zvinchuk outlined Russia’s “peace conditions,” which demand control of Luhansk, Donetsk, Zaporizhia, and Kherson oblasts, access to Moldova’s pro-Russian Transnistria region through Odesa Oblast, and control of the Danube River area. These positions would give Russia strategic advantages to threaten Ukraine, Moldova, and NATO, potentially enabling future attacks on southern Ukraine and Odesa City, establishing supply lines to Transnistria and Gagauzia in southern Moldova, and creating launch points for operations against Moldova, southeastern Ukraine, or Romania – where NATO is building its largest base near Constanta. While Ukrainian forces have pushed Russia’s Black Sea Fleet from the northwest Black Sea, Russian control of these areas could effectively cut off Ukraine’s maritime access. Amid these developments, President Zelensky expressed optimism about potential changes in U.S. policy direction, suggesting it could accelerate the conflict’s end.
Situation On The Land, Sea, and Air in Ukraine
According to Russian military analyst Mikhail Zvinchuk, Russian forces plan to focus their winter 2024-2025 offensive on urban combat, targeting specific Ukrainian towns including Toretsk, Pokrovsk, and Kurakhove. Following their capture of Selydove, Russian forces are reportedly preparing to advance on Pokrovsk from the south and southeast. Recent Russian advances into eastern Kupyansk and central Chasiv Yar appear to be part of this strategy, with the capture of these cities potentially threatening key Ukrainian defensive positions.
Russian military analyst Zvinchuk reports that Russia plans to enhance its drone warfare capabilities during winter 2024-2025 to counter Ukrainian drones, which have effectively limited Russian armored vehicle movements. Despite having an artillery advantage, Russian forces are currently struggling to advance due to Ukrainian drone operations. Russia appears to be favoring urban combat, as city buildings offer better protection from drones than open areas, even though this strategy will likely result in high Russian casualties. The Russian military is also working to centralize control over its drone units to improve effectiveness.
Ukrainian forces reportedly launched a naval drone raid near gas fields in the Black Sea west of Crimea. Russian officials claim they destroyed four Ukrainian drones while a fifth withdrew, marking the first such attack in this area since September.
Ukrainian Operations in the Russian Federation – Initiative None
Russian forces attacked Ukrainian positions near Kursk Oblast but made no confirmed advances. Russia claims to have surrounded Ukrainian forces near the Olgovka forest, east of Korenevo, and reports advances near several settlements including Kremyanoye, Darino, Novoivanovka, Kurylivka, and Plekhovo. However, these claims remain unverified.
Ukrainian Defense Minister Rustem Umerov’s August visit to Washington resulted in President Biden authorizing Ukraine to use US-supplied ATACMS long-range missiles for limited strikes against Russian and North Korean military targets in Russia’s Kursk Oblast, where these forces are reportedly preparing for a large-scale assault – marking a significant policy shift after Biden’s previous reluctance due to escalation concerns with Russia. France and the UK have similarly allowed Ukraine to use their SCALP/Storm Shadow missiles within Russia, though this new authorization only affects targets in Kursk Oblast, leaving other Russian military sites in border regions still protected from Ukrainian strikes using Western weapons. Ukraine is expected to conduct its first strikes using these weapons in the coming days.
Ukrainian forces conducted their first-ever drone strike in Russia’s Udmurt Republic, targeting the Kupol Electromechanical Plant in Izhevsk – located over 1,300 kilometers from Ukraine’s border – which produces military equipment including Tor air defense systems, radars, and possibly drones. Local authorities and Russian official Alexander Brechalov reported a drone crash and explosion at the plant resulting in one injury and minor damage, while the Russian Ministry of Defense notably did not claim to have intercepted any drones in the area.
Kharkiv Front – Initiative Russia
Russian forces attacked Ukrainian positions north of Kharkiv City near Strilecha and northeast near Vovchansk and Starytsya but failed to gain any ground.
Luhansk Front – Initiative Russia
Russian forces advanced south of Kupyansk, capturing Kolisnykivka and securing a 3-3.5-kilometer area along the Oskil River’s east bank. They continued attacks near multiple settlements including Pishchane, Kruhlyakivka, Zahryzove, Kopanky, Nadiya, Tverdokhlibove, Hrekivka, Cherneshchyna, Makiivka, and Terny.
Donetsk Front – Initiative Russia
Siversk
Russian forces launched limited ground attacks near the settlements of Verkhnokamyanske and Ivano-Darivka in the Siversk area but failed to make advances. A Ukrainian military observer reports that Russian forces in this sector have approximately 110 tanks and 315 armored vehicles ready for combat operations.
Chasiv Yar
Russian forces made progress near Chasiv Yar, partially encircling the area with a confirmed advance southwest of Andriivka. Reports claim Russian movements along the railway between Andriivka and Zelenopillya, and near Klishchiivka. Additional claims of advances near Orikhovo-Vasylivka and in areas around central Chasiv Yar, including the Stupky-Holubivske 2 nature reserve and Druzhba forest, remain unconfirmed.
Toretsk
Russian forces attacked near Toretsk and Shcherbynivka with no confirmed advances, though Russian sources claim small gains within Toretsk itself.
Pokrovsk
Russian forces reportedly advanced near Pokrovsk, with claims of capturing Yurivka and moving toward Zorya, though these gains remain unconfirmed. Fighting continued around several settlements including Myrolyubivka, Promin, Lysivka, Krutyi Yar, Petrivka, Pustynka, and Novooleksiivka. Russian forces reportedly repelled a Ukrainian counterattack near Hrodivka. A Ukrainian drone destroyed a Russian electronic warfare station in Serhiivka, southeast of Pokrovsk.
Kurakhove
Russian forces advanced near Kurakhove, capturing Nova Illinka and reaching the northern outskirts of Kurakhove along the Kurakhivske Reservoir. Ukrainian forces are reportedly withdrawing from the reservoir’s northern bank. Fighting continues around several settlements including Novodmytrivka, Voznesenka, Sontsivka, Zorya, Novoselydivka, Illinka, Berestky, Maksymilyanivka, and Dalne.
Southwest of Donetsk City
Russian forces advanced south of Kostiantynopolske along the O-0510 highway near Vuhledar. Additional unconfirmed advances were reported west of Antonivka, east of Bohoyavlenka, and west of Maksymivka. Fighting continues near several settlements including Uspenivka, Sukhyi Yaly, Yelyzavetivka, Katerynivka, Romanivka, Trudove, and Yantarne.
Zaporizhia Front – Initiative Russia
Zaporizhia-Donetsk Border Area
Russian forces launched attacks near Novodarivka and Rivnopil, located southwest of Velyka Novosilka, along the Donetsk-Zaporizhia Oblast border. While a Russian military blogger claimed advances of one kilometer north of Rivnopil, these claims remain unconfirmed, and no verified territorial gains were reported.
Zaporizhia Line
Reports indicate that Russian forces are operating near Polohy, south of Hulyaipole in eastern Zaporizhia Oblast, though no active combat was reported in the region.
Fighting continued near Novopokrovka in western Zaporizhia Oblast with Ukrainian forces using HIMARS to strike Russian forces near Tavria. While a Russian military blogger claimed advances north and west of Novopokrovka, no confirmed changes to the frontline were reported.
Kherson (Dnipro River) Front – Initiative Russia
Russian forces conducted limited attacks on the eastern bank of the Dnipro River in Kherson Oblast but failed to make any advances.
Ukraine News
In one of the largest attacks since August 2024, Russia launched a massive assault against Ukraine deploying approximately 120 missiles and 90 drones, including hypersonic Zirkon and seven Kinzhal missiles. Ukrainian air defenses intercepted 102 missiles and 42 drones across 19 regions, with F-16 pilots destroying about 10 targets, though the defensive effectiveness was lower than usual due to Russia’s new strategy of using Kalibr cruise missiles and Iranian-made Shahed drone decoys to overwhelm air defenses. The strikes targeted multiple cities including Kyiv (marking the first large-scale missile attack there in over two months), Kropyvnytskyi, Rivne, Ivano-Frankivsk, Cherkasy, Dnipro, Vinnytsia, Kryvyi Rih, Odesa, Zaporizhzhia, Kharkiv, Lviv, and Mykolaiv, resulting in at least seven civilian deaths and 19 injuries nationwide, with Sumy particularly hard hit, suffering 11 deaths and 84 injuries in a rocket strike that plunged the city into darkness.
The attacks caused significant damage to energy infrastructure throughout Ukraine, including DTEK’s thermal power plants (marking the 8th major attack on DTEK facilities and 10th massive strike on Ukraine’s energy system this year), forcing emergency power shutdowns across the country. Several nuclear power plants – Khmelnytskyi, Rivne, and Pivdennoukrainsk – were forced to reduce power production due to damaged electrical substations, while Ukraine’s overall power generation capacity, which had recently recovered to 16-18 gigawatts from less than 10 gigawatts (down from its pre-war 56 gigawatts), remains vulnerable to ongoing Russian attacks. The assault also damaged a railway depot in Dnipropetrovsk Oblast and disrupted rail lines across southern, western, and northeastern Ukraine, along with civilian infrastructure in various regions, prompting Poland to scramble fighter jets to protect its airspace in response.
Ukraine’s energy infrastructure faces critical challenges after two and a half years of Russian attacks, losing 18 gigawatts of electricity capacity – half destroyed in summer 2024 alone – with the Zaporizhzhia nuclear plant’s occupation by Russia cutting 6 gigawatts from Ukraine’s power supply, while attacks on the Trypillya thermal plant and widespread infrastructure damage have led to daily blackouts in Kyiv lasting 8 to 20 hours. Following extensive Russian missile strikes, the Khmelnytskyi, Rivne, and South Ukrainian nuclear plants reduced output due to damaged power substations, raising safety concerns according to IAEA chief Rafael Grossi, with officials warning that Russia may continue targeting Ukraine’s power grid as winter approaches, like previous seasonal attacks. In response, Ukraine is rebuilding its grid with a focus on decentralized energy sources and modern technology, moving away from large power stations toward smaller, distributed systems that are harder to target, with reconstruction costs exceeding $56 billion supported partially by EU loans and U.S. assistance.
Innocent Victims Of War
The casualty count of civilians in the past 24 hours: (Russian War Crimes)
DEATHS: 2 INJURIES: 9
Russian forces launched a drone and missile attack on Mykolaiv killing two people and wounding seven others, including two children. The strike damaged homes, an apartment building, a shopping center, and infrastructure.
Falling drone debris caused a fire in a fourth-floor apartment in Kyiv’s Pechersk district. One person was hospitalized and another treated at the scene.
Russia’s attack on Mykolaiv damaged several private residences, a multi-story building, cars, a shopping center, and an infrastructure facility, governor Vitalii Kim reported. (State Emergency Service / Telegram)
Ukraine’s Allies
International leaders have strongly condemned Russia’s massive aerial attack on Ukraine, which involved 120 missiles and 90 drones targeting energy infrastructure and residential areas across the country, with Dutch Foreign Minister Caspar Veldkamp noting that as the war approaches its 1,000th day, Russia shows no signs of stopping its aggression. While leaders from the Netherlands, Norway, the UK, and Moldova pledged continued support for Ukraine, German Chancellor Olaf Scholz’s November 15, 2024, phone call with Russian President Putin has sparked controversy, particularly after Russia launched the major strike two days later – though Scholz defended the call as demonstrating continued Western support for Ukraine, especially important given concerns about U.S. policy changes when President-elect Trump takes office. Canadian Prime Minister Trudeau supported diplomatic engagement despite expressing extremely low trust in Putin, while Ukrainian President Zelensky warned the call could break Russia’s isolation, and Polish Prime Minister Donald Tusk criticized that “telephone diplomacy cannot replace real support.”
Russia News
Russian military bloggers are taking credit for helping remove commanders of the 3rd Combined Arms Army who reportedly filed false reports about Russian advances near Siversk. They praised Defense Minister Belousov’s response to the situation, contrasting it with how former Defense Minister Shoigu might have handled it. The bloggers claim this shows their growing influence in exposing problems within the Russian military.
Russian opposition leaders Yulia Navalnaya, Vladimir Kara-Murza, and Ilya Yashin led an anti-war march in Berlin, drawing between 1,800 to 7,000 participants. The protest, which coincided with a major Russian strike on Ukrainian cities, called for Russia’s withdrawal from Ukraine, the release of political prisoners, and Putin’s prosecution as a war criminal. While protesters waved both Ukrainian and Russian opposition flags, Ukraine’s ambassador to Germany, Oleksii Makeiev, dismissed the event as a “PR campaign” aimed at German media rather than the Russian population. The march occurred following Kara-Murza and Yashin’s recent release in a prisoner swap, and amid Navalnaya’s increased public role following her husband Alexei Navalny’s death in Russian custody.
Russian War Losses (Today/Total)
| Troops +1560
722440 |
Tanks +15
9365 |
Artillery +30
20586 |
Arm. VEH +38
19059 |
Aircraft
369 |
Heli
329 |
Ships
28 |
Russia’s Allies
According to Financial Times, North Korea has supplied Russia with military equipment, including 50 “Koksan” howitzers and 20 rocket systems now deployed in Kursk Oblast, and might send up to 100,000 troops – which, while lacking combat experience, could temporarily reduce pressure on Russian military recruitment and help avoid another unpopular draft, though this would only cover Russian losses for less than three months given their recent heavy casualties averaging 1,271 troops per day in September 2024, with over 80,000 casualties in September and October combined. The arrangement benefits North Korea by allowing them to test their weapons in actual combat and gain experience with drone warfare, potentially creating future security concerns for South Korea and Japan, but wouldn’t address Russia’s broader workforce shortages affecting its defense industry.
Source Material
Institute for the Study of War – understandingwar.org
The Kyiv Independent – kyivindependent.com
Kyiv Post – kyivpost.com