Summary of the day: Russian President Vladimir Putin continues to employ nuclear saber-rattling to influence Western decision-making and promote self-deterrence among Western nations. During Navy Day celebrations, Russia highlighted its relations with various non-Western states, aiming to form a coalition against the West. Ukrainian forces executed a drone strike on a Russian oil depot in Kursk Oblast, while a rebel coalition in Mali inflicted casualties on Russian servicemen and Wagner Group mercenaries. Russian forces made advancements northwest of Avdiivka, west of Donetsk City, and in western Zaporizhia Oblast, while Ukrainian forces regained positions in the Siversk direction.
Picture of the day:
The Church of the Nativity of the Holy Virgin is pictured after being heavily damaged by Russian artillery in the community of Novoeconomichne in Donetsk Oblast (Kostiantyn Liberov/Libkos/Getty Images)
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Beyond Ukraine – The March Towards World War
Russian President Vladimir Putin continues to use nuclear threats to influence Western decisions. During the Main Naval Parade in St. Petersburg, he warned that US deployment of long-range missiles in Germany by 2026 would shorten the flight time to Russian targets to about 10 minutes. Putin also threatened that if the US deploys Typhon Mid-Range Capability missile systems to Denmark and the Philippines, Russia will take reciprocal actions. He criticized US missile deployments and highlighted Russia’s resumption of strategic air patrols in 2007. Despite suspending participation in the INF Treaty in 2019, Russia has since deployed nuclear-capable missiles in Kaliningrad. This response follows a U.S.-German agreement to deploy long-range weapons in Germany by 2026. Putin stated Russia would consider deploying similar missiles, including in its Navy. Germany’s Chancellor Scholz defended the decision as protection against aggression, urging Russia to end its war in Ukraine. This situation stems from the 2019 collapse of the Intermediate-Range Nuclear Forces Treaty between the U.S. and Russia.
Russia showcased its relations with non-Western states during Navy Day celebrations to build a coalition against the West. Ships from China, Algeria, and India participated in the Main Naval Parade in St. Petersburg, with representatives from 31 countries, including Azerbaijan, Venezuela, Vietnam, Cuba, Libya, Myanmar, Syria, Qatar, the UAE, and South Africa attending events. Russian Deputy Defense Minister Alexander Fomin discussed naval cooperation with China’s PLA Navy and Myanmar’s Navy Commander. Additionally, Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov agreed to increase diplomatic contacts with Malaysia during a meeting in Kuala Lumpur.
A Russian-speaking group in Finland filed complaints with EU bodies over Finland’s closure of its border with Russia. Finland closed the border in November 2023 after Russia allegedly created migrant crises there, seen as a hybrid operation against Finland and NATO.
Polish Deputy Foreign Minister Bartoszewski criticized Hungarian Prime Minister Orban for his recent speech attacking Poland, the EU, and NATO. Orban accused Poland of changing European power dynamics and criticized Western policies. Bartoszewski questioned Hungary’s EU and NATO membership, citing Orban’s pro-Russia stance and Hungary’s blocking of EU funds for Poland’s military aid to Ukraine. Orban recently met with Putin, Xi Jinping, and Trump on a “peace tour,” claiming outside intervention is needed to end the Ukraine war. His actions have drawn criticism from the EU and Ukraine’s President Zelensky.
The Road To Peace
Ukraine plans to finalize a peace action plan by November. A first peace summit in Switzerland resulted in a communique signed by 91 countries. Ukraine aims to organize a second summit with Russia before the U.S. 2024 election, but Russia has refused to participate. Zelensky emphasizes unity and diplomatic pressure as key factors for ending the war, rejecting ceasefire calls while Russian occupation continues. Putin demands Ukraine’s withdrawal from annexed regions as a condition for negotiations, which Kyiv has rejected.
Russian officials claim a ceasefire would benefit Ukraine more, allowing it to rebuild forces. However, analysts believe Russia would likely use any pause to strengthen its own military and industrial capacity for future aggression against Ukraine.
Situation On The Land, Sea, and Air in Ukraine
Ukrainian State Border Service Spokesperson Andriy Demchenko said that Russian reconnaissance and sabotage operations along the Sumy Oblast border have decreased but are still ongoing.
A Russian source claims Ukraine struck a training ground in occupied Luhansk Oblast with ATACMS missiles. The attack allegedly killed or wounded 90 Russian soldiers preparing for deployment near Avdiivka. This report remains unconfirmed by independent sources.
Ukrainian drone attacks are impacting Russian naval operations. Two Russian naval airfields are reportedly empty due to drone threats. Many Black Sea Fleet ships have moved to Novorossiysk for protection, but the port there lacks sufficient space for all vessels.
Kharkiv Front – Initiative Russia
Russian troops have likely withdrawn from the south bank of the Vovcha River in Vovchansk, northeast of Kharkiv City. They continue offensive operations north and northeast of Kharkiv but face Ukrainian counterattacks. A Ukrainian military spokesperson reports significant Russian losses and changing tactics in the area. Russian forces are now operating mainly from within Russian territory due to Ukrainian strikes.
Luhansk Front – Initiative Russia
Russian forces attacked multiple locations along the Kupyansk-Svatove-Kreminna line on but made no confirmed advances. Ukrainian officials reported repelling Russian attacks in various areas near Kupyansk, Svatove, and Kreminna.
Donetsk Front – Initiative Russia
Siversk
Recent footage shows Ukrainian troops have regained positions in western Ivano-Dariivka, southeast of Siversk. Russian forces continue attacking near Verkhnokamyanske, Spirne, and Ivano-Dariivka. Russian airborne units are reportedly operating south of Siversk.
Chasiv Yar
Russian forces attacked areas around Chasiv Yar, with no confirmed frontline changes. Unverified claims suggest Russian advances in eastern Chasiv Yar and repelled Ukrainian counterattacks near Klishchiivka. Fighting continues in multiple locations surrounding Chasiv Yar.
Toretsk
Russian forces attacked areas around Toretsk. Some sources claim advances in Zalizne and Pivnichne, but these are unconfirmed. Fighting continues in Toretsk, Pivnichne, Zalizne, and near Niu York.
Avdiivka
Russian troops have captured Prohres and Vovche northwest of Avdiivka. They reportedly made further advances in the area, including near Zhelanne, Novoselivka Persha, and towards Vesele. Russian forces continue attacks in multiple locations north, northwest, and west of Avdiivka.
Russian forces are attempting to encircle Ukrainian troops northwest of Avdiivka. They’re advancing along key roads and railways, aiming to surround Ukrainian positions near Hrodivka, Novohrodivka, and Selydove. However, Russia’s slow progress makes a rapid encirclement unlikely. Ukrainian forces may need to withdraw from some areas east of the Vovcha River and Karlivske Reservoir. Russian advances typically slow when approaching water features and new settlement lines.
Southwest of Donetsk City
Russian forces advanced west of Donetsk City, making gains in Krasnohorivka and near Vodyane. They continue offensive operations in this area, including near Heorhiivka and Paraskoviivka. Ukrainian forces repelled a Russian mechanized assault. A Russian blogger criticized “thoughtless” Russian assaults without proper electronic warfare support.
Zaporizhia Front – Initiative Russia
Zaporizhia-Donetsk Border Area
Fighting continues along the Donetsk-Zaporizhia border, particularly near Rozdolne. Russian air force units are reportedly active in the Velyka Novosilka area.
Zaporizhia Line
Russian forces advanced in western Zaporizhia Oblast, capturing Robotyne. Ongoing battles continue near Hulyaipole, Mala Tokmachka, Verbove, and Novoandriivka. Russian motorized rifle and air force units are operating in the area.
Kherson (Dnipro River) Front – Initiative Russia
Fighting continues near Krynky and on Dnipro River Delta islands in Kherson Oblast. A Russian source claimed small advances by special forces near Krynky, but this is unconfirmed.
Ukraine News
Russia launched limited missile and drone strikes against Ukraine overnight. Ukrainian forces intercepted most attacks, including several drones over Odesa Oblast. Two missiles hit Kharkiv City, targeting a transport company.
In the past week, from July 20-27, Russia launched about 700 guided bombs and 100 Shahed drones at Ukraine, killing 11 and wounding 41 in one day across four regions. Ukrainian forces destroyed 110 Russian aerial assets during this period, including one Su-25 aircraft and 21 Shahed drones. Zelensky called for more long-range weapons and air defense from allies.
The Ukrainian Defense Ministry reports an increase in stress-related neuralgic diseases among service members, with 29% being post-traumatic stress disorder (PTSD). PTSD, caused by traumatic events like combat, is expected to rise further. The ministry emphasizes the need for comprehensive psychological support at all stages of military service, including for those returning from captivity and their families. Ukraine’s healthcare system has seen a significant increase in PTSD diagnoses, with as many cases recorded in the first two months of 2024 as in all of 2021.
Ukrainian tennis players Elina Svitolina, Marta Kostyuk, and Dayana Yastremska won their first matches at the 2024 Paris Olympics. Svitolina defeated Japan’s Uchijima, Kostyuk beat New Zealand’s Sun, and Yastremska overcame Brazil’s Pigossi. All three advance to the second round. Ukraine is sending its smallest-ever Olympic team of 140 athletes, competing in 23 sports. The full-scale Russian invasion has significantly impacted Ukrainian athletes’ preparation, with over 500 sports facilities damaged or destroyed.
Innocent Victims Of War
Since February 2022, Russia’s war in Ukraine has killed 564 children and injured 1,487. Over 19,500 children have been abducted by Russia, with 800 returned. Russia is accused of forcibly changing children’s cultural identity in occupied areas, potentially constituting genocide. NATO and OSCE have recognized Russia’s actions as genocide. A special tribunal for Russia’s war crimes may be established by year-end.
The casualty count of civilians in the past 24 hours:
DEATHS: 7 INJURIES: 36
- In Kherson Oblast, attacks on Komyshany village wounded six people, including children aged 10 and 15. Pryozerne village was also hit, with a 56-year-old woman injured. The strikes damaged three apartment buildings, 18 houses, an educational facility, and civilian infrastructure.
- Donetsk Oblast suffered five deaths and 15 injuries, with the heaviest casualties in Ivanivka village near Pokrovsk.
- In Kharkiv Oblast, strikes on the Chuhuiv and Kupiansk districts killed an elderly woman and injured a 54-year-old man. The attacks damaged five houses, an agricultural facility, and an industrial facility.
- Sumy Oblast’s town of Hlukhiv was also attacked, resulting in one child’s death and injuries to 14 others.
An educational facility in Kherson Oblast damaged in a Russian strike. (Screenshot/Oleksandr Prokudin/Telegram)
Ukraine’s Allies
Western F-16 fighter jets are expected to arrive in Ukraine within weeks. Ukraine is set to receive at least 79 F-16s from Netherlands, Denmark, Belgium, and Norway, with up to 20 arriving this year. These jets will likely focus on air defense rather than ground attacks. Ukraine faces challenges with missile supplies and potential Russian countermeasures. Some U.S. officials doubt the F-16s will provide a decisive advantage, while Ukrainian officials argue the delivery is too limited and late.
Russia News
Ukrainian forces conducted a drone strike on the Russian Polyova oil depot in Kursk Oblast, causing explosions and fires in three fuel tanks. The depot, which has 11 tanks with a total volume of 7,000 cubic meters, supplies oil to the Russian military. An explosion also occurred at an electrical substation in the region. Kursk Oblast Governor Alexei Smirnov confirmed the incident, and video footage shows the blaze. The Russian Ministry of Defense claimed to have downed two Ukrainian drones over the region. Ukraine’s military confirmed the operation, stating it aims to undermine Russia’s military and economic potential. Such attacks on Russian border regions have become more frequent in recent months. The Security Service of Ukraine (SBU) cooperated with the Ukrainian military in this operation, which is part of ongoing efforts to force Russia to stop its armed aggression against Ukraine.
A battle between Malian army forces supported by Russian Wagner mercenaries and rebels in northern Mali has reportedly resulted in significant casualties. The rebel coalition claimed they defeated the entire column of Malian and Russian forces on the Mali-Algeria border on July 27, killing and wounding dozens of Russian servicemen and Wagner Group mercenaries. The rebel spokesman stated they caused “huge losses.” Among the dead was Nikita Fedyanin, a prominent Wagner-affiliated milblogger. Reports indicate Wagner suffered 33 killed and 18 wounded, with several captured, possibly including Wagner commander Anton Yelizarov. Russian sources claim the Russian Ministry of Defense mediated a prisoner exchange, though Yelizarov’s fate remains unclear. The Malian government reported two soldiers killed and ten injured. These claims are unverified. The incident highlights Russia’s ongoing influence in Mali and other African countries, which has been criticized for supporting authoritarian regimes and exploiting resources.
Governor Oleg Kozhemyako has formed a 300-member “Tiger-Law and Order Squad” in Vladivostok. The unit, comprised of Ukraine war veterans, will patrol and “ensure public safety” among migrants. It will work with Rosgvardia and the Ministry of Internal Affairs, with plans to expand to other cities. This move aligns with broader Russian efforts to tighten control over migrants, despite labor shortages. The initiative may also serve to integrate veterans into society, addressing Kremlin concerns about their return from Ukraine.
The Paris 2024 Olympic Games organizers reportedly revoked press accreditations for four journalists from Russia’s state-run TASS news agency. This follows earlier rejections of accreditation applications due to suspicions of Russian or Belarusian foreign interference. TASS denounced the decision, claiming their reporters had no issues entering France. Olympic organizers fear potential sabotage attempts, with recent incidents including an arson attack on Paris’ railway network and arrests related to planned disruptions. Russian and Belarusian athletes face restrictions on participation, including bans on team entries and displaying national symbols, due to Russia’s doping scandal and the invasion of Ukraine.
Russian Mobilization and Defense Industrial Base
Russia aims to deploy 690,000 troops in Ukraine by end of 2024, up from the current 520,000. An observer suggests Russia needs 300,000-320,000 more troops to reach this goal. Russia’s current recruitment strategy, relying on persuasion and coercion, may struggle to meet this target.
Russia’s “permanent mobilization” strategy faces challenges. It lacks a prepared reserve, efficient processing of reservists, and adequate training capabilities. The strategy may struggle to compensate for losses, especially given Russia’s continued costly attacks. The troop buildup likely aims for a decisive manpower advantage rather than following a long-term mobilization strategy.
Nine Russian convicts who joined the military escaped from a training ground in Belgorod Oblast on July 26 and 27.
Russia claims to be using new drones in Ukraine, including the “Molniya-1” with alleged AI capabilities. This drone reportedly has a 30km range and can overcome radio interference. Russian FPV drones are said to operate at 15km range. Both sides may soon use AI-powered drone swarms.
A former Russian commander claims Russian forces are intercepting video signals from Ukrainian drones using electronic warfare but provides no evidence.
Russian Narrative and Propaganda
Russia’s Orthodox Church leader Patriarch Kirill highlighted joint efforts with the government to promote “traditional values” among Russian youth. This aligns with the Kremlin’s use of traditional values to instill nationalist ideology and address demographic issues. Kirill also uses shared Orthodox faith to challenge Ukraine’s distinct nationhood.
Ukraine warns that Russia is spreading false claims about NATO mercenaries in Kharkiv Oblast to justify attacks on civilian targets.
Source Material
Institute for the Study of War – understandingwar.org
The Kyiv Independent – kyivindependent.com
Kyiv Post – kyivpost.com